ACTIVITY REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 1958

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP62S00346A000100150079-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 3, 1998
• Sequence Number: 79
• Publication Date: September 8, 1958
• Content Type: MEMO

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8 September 1958
TO: Assistant Director for Reisearch and Reports
FROM: Chief, Economic Research Area
SUBJECT: Activity Report for the Month of August 1958
1. Following the discussions with Branch and Division Chiefs held in
July, a project was established (Project No. 00.2416) to cover the prepare,
tion by all appropriate ERA Branches of Gaps in Information Requirements for
priority Subjects and areas within their fields of responsibility. This
project was discussed further at a meeting on 12 August with representatives
of St/I and the ED/P. Reactions of the DD/P representatives generally favored
the proposed project. Another meeting with the DEO will be scheduled to
review the first group of statements, to be completed by the end of September.
To facilitate the processing of these Requirements through St/I and the field
collectors, it has been necessary to establish a vote of 10 Requirements
per month for the ERA as a whole. After a few months of experience with the
project, an effort will be made to increase the monthly vote, so that all
of the ERAers priority needs for information may be covered by these Gaps
Requirements as quickly as possible.
2. Recent significant developments in the plans and progress of
Communist China make the next NIE on ChiCam Capabilities and Probable Courses
of Action (NIE 13-59) one of the most important and difficult ones to which
the ERA has had to contribute, In preparation for this Nat a meeting of
Branch and Division Chiefs was held on 5 August to consider (1) criteria for
judging the feasibility of Chins economic plans and for assessing its per-
formance, and (2) the desirability of scheduling new coordinated branch or
areaewide research projects in support of the NIE. As a result of this
meeting, each Branch submitted a memorandum to A/F outlining its plans for
the NIE contribution.
3. For some time various members of EVA have been participating,
through the BIC Eubcom;ittee on Population and Manpower, in discussions con-
cerning the prepesed exchange of census delegations between the U.S. and the
USSR, The discussions have now been dropped, since the USSR has indicated
that it "sees no benefit" to such an exchange but is willing instead to
exchange printed census materials.
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40 The joint State-ORB contribution to the Soviet NIE, involving an
economic and political assessment of the Soviet industrial reorganisation,
mss completed during the month. Most of the work on this project was done
by ORB, Relationships with the State contributors were amicable, and the
amount of time rewired for coordination the contribution was not unreasonable.
It is planned to publish the contribution as a joint product,
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. 2o Luring the past 6 months, members of D/A have been discussing with
the feasibility of establishing an external research
project to prices in relation to costs of Production, These
talks were recently terminated with the conclusion that IIIIIpid not have 25X1A5a1
available for this work a person with the right kind of .sT7k?ground,
. 6. The JAEIC Economic Working Group held its first two meetings
dOring August for the purpose of producing a coordinated economic contribu-
tion to NIE 114-59 The Soviet Atomic Energy gwn0 Virtually all the
research being consilgrled'bylhe group was p ce y ORB, The Working
Group, under the chairmanship of Chief, L/M0 is comprised of representatives
of ORB, 051, the AEC, State and Nary.
7. The Guided Missile Branch has begun to contribute on a regular
basis memoranda on current air-to-surface missile activity to the OSI
Scientific Intelligence Digest and to the monthly status report of the DIVI
Coordinator for Guided Missile Intelligence, The first SID article was not
credited to ORB, but a credit line will be requested for future iesuee?
8. The Guided Missile Branch (0) is preparing preliminary cost and
Production estimates of selected possible Soviet guided missile programs in
Oapport of the Net Evaluations Subcommittee of the NSC (Project 37,2414),
It appears now that the cost of these programs will be higher than previously
,estimated? although not beyond USSR capability to meet, I/GM is also
preparing a briefing on the problems of collecting intelligence on guided -
missile production to be given by the Chairman of GMIC to selected members
Of the NSC?
. 9. Recent conversations with and inquiries from representatives of
AFCIN indicate that the Air Force is becoming increasingly interested in
Military economic intelligence in general and military costing in particularc
This growing interest, which may be the result of a change in command of
ACK, nay have implications for the work of the ERA in this field in the
future,.
10,Arecent attache@ trip report gimes considerable support to the ORB
estimate of the capacity of the Trans-Siberian railroad and may cause
ACSI (Army) to revise its most recent estimates in this field. If so, they
lay recommend that a new estimate be prepared by the BIC Subcommittee on
transportation (with ORB participation).
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11. The Trade Controls Branch prepared materials illustrating loop.
holes in trade controls enforcement, in connection with the preparation of
an agenda for a meeting of the COCOM Subcommittee on Export Controls schedaled
to be held in Paris during the first week in NoveMhera
12. ERA current support for CCI in August largely involved the
preparation of taticles dealing with the neap forward" in China, with the
upsurge in Bloc logistic support of the UAR, with Satellite mid-year economic
reports, and with additional information on the industrial reorganization
and the seven-year plan on the USSR. Support for the IAC Watch Committee
was unusually extensive because of the critical situations in the Middle East
and in the Taiwan Straite. Questionnaires concerning items on the NIG
Genera/ Indicator. List were prepared by various ERA Branches at the request
a he 14.7aliErty;TS Survey Committee of the IAC, 'whose Chairman commented
very favorably on the ORR submissions.
13. The third in the aeries of ERA Procedures . concerned with
maintenance of the Central Economic Estimates File - wet completed during
August. In this revision the Estimates File procedures have been simplified
and the number of file categories has been considerably reduced, with a view
to making the File more readily usable and easier to meintain.
14, In his annual report on the NIS program, the Chairmen et the NIS
Committee gave the ERA speciel mention as having observed its schedule of
submissions while improving the quality of its contributions. no other producer
received suchspecial mentiore Considerable time ens spent contributions;
the month
in developing a schedule of ?IS production for Fiscal Years 196062 and in
coordinating the schedule internally and with the military agencies.
15, Because of the great increase in sise in recent issues of the
EIC Biweeklx.Roert and because of the increased use of graphic materials,
a-priala7e was instituted about 3 months age to have the Biw printed
in Que Building rather than in Alexandria. On at least three occasions,
lasteminute changes reenestee by the EIC Working Group were incorporated
in the Biweek 'without delaying the dissemlnation. If the printing had
been done .11 exandria, the same changes would have resulted in at least
a?daee's delay for each lessee. Hitch of the muccese of the present procedure
is due to the. c er tion (74* the CCI Printing Shop -- especially the support
rendered by .end
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