SOVIET FOREIGN TRADE AND THE SEVEN YEAR PLAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP62S00545A000100080007-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 8, 1998
• Sequence Number: 7
• Content Type: REPORT

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Soviet Foreign Trade and the Seven Year Plan
Soviet foreign trade, which in 1958 amounted to more than $8 billion, has
been growing at a more rapid rate than that of total output for the past five
years. While Soviet trade with the West accounts for only one-quarter of total
foreign trade, it has expanded even more rapidly since 1953 than has total
foreign trade. Historically the USSR has relied on the West for technology
embodied in imports of industrial machinery and equipment. During the first
Five-Year Plan (1929-34) one-third to one-half of total world exports of
machinery and equipment went to the USSR and imports from the West (constant
prices) rose to a peak which has since only been exceeded during the years of
lend-lease shipments. After that huge influx, Soviet trade with the West
declined precipitously.
Once again today Soviet representatives are talking of huge imports of
machinery and equipment from the West -- up to $2 billions during the next
few years. Khrushchev has also added that it will be necessary for the West
to grant credits to the USSR if they want Soviet orders of this scale. Soviet
purchasing missions have been touring Western Europe, and are now in the U.S.,
negotiating for equipment for the chemical, metallurgical and electronics
industries. Certain goals of the Seven Year Plan for these industries probably
cannot be achieved without imports. While the bulk of this imported equipment
will come from the European Satellites, roughly 30 percent is likely to be
sought in the West, and for certain types of machinery -- high-speed rolling
mills and equipment for the petrochemical industry, for example -- the West is
the only source.
The USSR historically has paid for imports from the West by exports of
grains, lumber, non-ferrous metals and gold. Soviet gold exports have been
used to make up the difference between imports and other Soviet exports.
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Questions on Soviet Trade
1. Western exporters and importers seek long-term markets and sources
of supply; how can they be sure that the current high level of Soviet orders,
and the current large volume of Soviet offerings of certain materials, are
here to stay, and that they will not fall back to previous low levels, once
the Seven Year Plan is completed, as happened after the First Five Year Plan.
2. M. R. Kuzmin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Trade, recently stated
that the Seven Year Plan (1959-65) "will be accomplished by utilizing the
country's internal resources, and those persons who think that we shall not
be able to fulfill this plan through our own efforts are deeply mistaken."
If Mr. Kuzmin's statement is true, why the great Soviet emphasis on increased
trade with the West? Why the emphasis on credits?
3. In the past, when the USSR could not sell sufficient exports to
pay for essential imports from the Free World, it sold sizable quantities of
gold. Why cannot the USSR again use gold for essential Seven Year Plan
purchases, instead of trying to obtain credits?
1. How will the program for integrating Bloc economies affect Soviet
trade with the West? Will the USSR's needs in the future be met entirely,
or almost entirely, by exports from the European Satellites and Communist
China?
SURF1
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