CFEP DRAFTING GROUP ECONOMIC DEFENSE POLICY REVIEW TRADE OF THE EUROPEAN SOVIET BLOC IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP63-00084A000100030004-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 27, 2000
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: May 27, 1955
• Content Type: REPORT

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SECRET
CFEP DRAFTING GROUP
ECONOMIC DEFENSE POLICY REVIEW
Staff Study No. 2
Draft-of May 27, 1955
Trade of the European Soviet Bloc in Agricultural Products
This draft of Staff Study No. 2, on "Trade of the European
Soviet Bloc in Agricultural Products", is transmitted for your use in
connection with tree work of the OFEP Drafting Group on Economic Defense
Policy Review.
In compliance with the request of the Chairman of the
Drafting Group, the Executive Secretary, EDAC, is providing repro-
duction and distribution facilities as a service to further the work
of the CFEP Drafting Group.
Irving Io Kramer
ecutive Secretary
Distribution:
CFEEP Drafting Group
SECRET
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FG0Nt C DEFENSE POLICY REVIEW
22 pages. No.
copies, Series fBI
3.
of Z
Staff Study No. 2
(Draft of May 27, 1955
Trade of the European Soviet Bloc in Agricultural Products
Begin UNCLASSIFIED
1. Introduction
Agricultural products represented almost half of total experts from
the European Soviet bloc to the free world in 1952 and about one-third in
1953, and such products constituted 40 percent of European bloc imports from
the free world in 1952 and 1953. Their share in trade within, the bloc cannot
b6 known with any precisions but it is probable that agricultural goods are
an important part of this trade which is known to be about three or four
ti.rrs the level of East-Test trade.
As used in this report, agricultural products include all foodstuffs,
tobacco, hides and skins (undressed), oilseeds, textile fibers, fate and oils
of animal or vegetable origin, crude rubber, and other animal or vegetable
crude materials. This definition excludes forest products and dressed furs.
The data presented here include some synthetic textile fibers and synthetic
or reclaimed rubber in cases where these could not be isolated in trade
statistics, but the values involved are not thought to exceed $1 million,
The European bloc was a net exporter to the free world of agricultural
products to the extent of $78 million in 1952, but in 1953 a net import of
$20 million is shown. Preliminary data for 1954 indicate an increase in these
not imports.
The shift from 1952 to 1953 was principally a result of trends in the
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sharply from about $500 to $350 million,, while imports of food increased from
$110 to $185 million. Thus net exports of food dropped from $386 to $174
million.
This change was somewhat offset by a decrease in the net import of
agricultural products other than foods, mainly resulting from a $100 million
drop in the import of rubber, There was a $3.9 million decrease in the net
imports of textile fibers; other shifts were minor. Because of the marked
differences between trends in the trade of foodstuffs and those in the trade
of other agricultural products, these two groups will, be discussed separately.
Separate discussion will also be given to the trade of the USSR, not
only because it is considerably larger than that of individual East European
countries but because shifts in the former were greater and accounted for a
large share of the major movements in total European bloc trade with the free
world. In general the shifts in satellite trade were similar to those in
Soviet trades, but the magnitudes and in some cases the direction was
different.
In connection with all the East-West trade figures presented, it shed
be remembered that these are derived from official free world sources as
compiled by the US Department of Cemmierce0 Consequently Soviet bloc exports
a valued c.i.f,, free world ports, and blue imports are f.o.b. fie world
ports. No attempt was 1e to adjust these glues to a Soviet bloc base y- use
of the conventional. .5 and 10 percent adjustment (5 percent for trade with
Euiroope, 10 percent for overseas trade) would not be justified here, since
agricultural products have a generally higher ratio of transport cost than
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3
the average on which such percentages are based. This means that bloc export
balances are overstated and net imports are understated throughout. End
UNC IF
Begin. SEAT. It is not possible to obtain official figures on any-
thing beyond total trade levels in intra bloc trade., except for a few
ttered statements relating to particular products it particular years. It
is lenowm that Soviet trade with bloc countries is large and a onstitutes 80
percent or more of Soviet world trade in the last few years9 but its compo-
sition can only be roughly estimated.
One method of making a rough estimate is to assemble the products
named as planned exports or imports when trade agreements between bloc
countries are announced. (No quantities or values are mentioned in ,
announcements.) It is not known to what extent the products so named are
representative of the major products in actual trades, but these named products
do show a certain consistency as between announcaments in different years and
between a given country and its trade partners9 and also some correspondence
with what is known about the composition of domestic output. Table 2 consists
Of a sc ary of agricultural products mentioned in this way in 1954
IZ. The Soviet Unit
Poo- I.- Trade with the free World
In 1952 the USSR was a heavy net exporter of food producteg
principally as a result of grain exports. The total net export of food 'was
.8 millions, and the value of grain exports was $246.4 million. Thus the
food imports of that mow, - $4.8.8 mi.l,lien9 distributed among various types
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were roughly equal to exports of foods other than grain.
In 1953, however,, grain exports dropped to less than half of the value
of 1952 ($117.5 million), while food imports nearly doubled and totaled $86
million, Consequently the net export of all foods dropped to $71.3 million.
Increased imports were most marked in butters and secondarily in fish
and meat. Increased imports of all three products had occurred in 1952 as
aced with 1951, but the 1953 increase in butter imports -was the most out
of lines this butter,, according to data submitted by the USSR to EC E, was
largely reexported to satellite eauntrieeo
Grain exports had. been relatively large in 1952, but the decrease in
1953 was to a level below that of 1951 which had not been a very good year.
To a small degree this resulted from price decreases (unit value of all grain
exports dropped about 12 percent from 1952 to 1953), but mainly it was a
result of declining voles (tonnage decreased by 47 percent). There was a
marked divergence between bread grains and coarse grains-. exports of barley
and corn fell to about one.gter of the 1952 levels, while exports of wheat
declined only moderately and those of rye nearly doubled.
Data on USSR commitments (consisting of 'trade agreement quotas and
reported contracts) for delivery in 1954 indicate that 1953 trends were
continued.. Grain exports, according to this measurep were to decline further
(roughly 30 percent in volute) with bread grains holding up better than
coarse grains. Imports of meat, fish,: and cheese were scheduled to increase
sharply, 'While,.tter imports Were to be about the same as in 1953. Prelim
wary trade data for 1954 confirm these findings as to trend, though precise
figures are not yet available. It is possible that the USSR became a net
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importer of food products in 1954 certainly the net export figure was greatly
reduced,
'h, Ei. tural. Products Other Than! Food 'gads with the Free Wo-
The USSR is a net importer of most non-food agricultural products,,
and a large net importer for the group as a whole. Net imports amounted to
$159.7 million in 1952 and $71,8 million in 19530
Three products account for the largest values in such trade.- cotton,,
wools, and rubber. Natural rubber is not produced to any extent in the Soviet
bloc, imports by the USSR from the free world were $100.9 million in 1952 and
$17,3 million in 1953, (See discussion of intra-bloc trade.) This decline
explains the decrease in the overall net imports of non-foods,, since no other
changes of comparable site occurred in other
growxpin
Borth, wool and cotton are produced in and exported from the Soviet
Unions, but imports are usually larger than exports (though these imports are
highly erratic),, 1952 there was a large n.et import of cotton and a
smaller net import of wools and in 1953 the position of the two products wa
reversed. O a smaller s .le 9 the USSR is a net importer of jute and a minor
net exporter of silk and of vegetable figs r other than, cotton or jute. The
overall balance for textile fibers shows a net import of $51,8 million in
1952 and $46,2 million in 19530
With respect to the remaining agricultural items,, the USSR is an
importer of amix e1 and vegetable fats and oils,, a net importer of tobacoo9
and an exporter of inedible animal crude materials, Trade in other products
is minor-.
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Preliminary data on 1954 trade indicate that Soviet imports of rubber
did not revive, that iinpc its of wool remained high though perhaps less than
1953, and that cotton imports may have increased,
('o Trade Within the Soviet iieet Bloc
In its trade with other members of the Soviet blooD the USSR
appears to be both an Importer and an exporter of agricultural products on a
significant scale,
The USSR apparently exports such staples as grain, cotton, and flax to
its satellites. In 1953 and 1954 exports of butter are mentioned. Imports
include sugary f u is and vagetablea9 tobaccos, silk and peanuts. For many
categories of product the Soviet Union appears as an exporter to some bloc
,reonntries and an importer from others,
Of particular interest is the import of rubber from Communist China;
dur' is, 1953 the bloc import of rubber from the free world shifted from Soviet
imports (from the UK and Malaya) to Chinese imports (from Ceyion)D the latter
being on a larger scale than could be processed in China. Consequently China
has re-exported rubber to the USSR, Another case of re-expert is that of
butter imported from the free world by the USSR and then shipped to Eastern
Europe, End SECRET
Begin U CL&SSIFIEU
III. The Europmn satel.li ,et
ao Eood Trade Fme world
The European satellites as a group were net exporters of food to
the amount of $142o7 million in 1952 and $102.5 million in 1953, Exports were
about $200 million in both yemuso Impute of food increased from around $60
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SEA
million in 1952 to $100 million in 19539 thus bringing down the net export,
figs,
Three types of product are prominent as satellite food exports,.
grains, meat, and sugar, Grain represent the largest export, and net expor 9
of Rumania, fhunga a and Bulgaria and one of the largest for Czechoslovakia
and ?old,, Meat exports originate largely in Poland, About half of the
sugar exports come from Gzachoslovakia and the rest from Poland, H 9 and
East Germany"
The next group of products in importance is that of dairy product
eggs, and honeys, of which the largest export was from Poiandp presumably of
ggs. This group also accounted for substantial imports, especially in 1953
t h e largest w e n t to East G e r m a n y and probably, consisted of butter,, Next in
ise of exports was the category fruits and vegetables,, originating in
Czeohoslovkia,, ,gariap and elsewhere. Imports of fraits and vegetables
were also substantial f, and again East Germany was the largest fir,
Products which were largely imported include fish of which East
Gerry was by far the largest buyer,, and coffee, tea, cocoa}, and. spices,
purchased by Gzechosloci.aa Poland, and East Gem, In addition to the
products mentioned, there was a substantial East German Import of mat.
The abo statements are intended to cover both 1952 and 1953. The
differences between the two years center arowad the increase in food importa9
crease which is found in almost all these commodity groups but which is
largest for fruit and vegetables and for dairy products,, eggs, and honey,
There is a slight decrease in imports of fish,, Among the exportsf, an increase
in meat exports was offset by decreases in, the export of sugar and of dairy
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products9 eggsf, and honey. Total grain exports were about the s 9 but there
were shifts in the share of different countries-. deliveries by Rumania and
Bulgaria increased while those of Poland9 Hungary,, and Czechoslovakia
declined,
Preliminary indications of 1954 trends point to a decrease in grain
exports and an increase in imports of grain from the free world (the latter
may not appear In full until 1955 data are available),, At the same time
imports of other foodstuffs were scheduled to in aase9 though less abruptly
than in the case of the USSR. Thus net exports orts of food to the free world
almost certainly decread9 but it is less likely than in the case of the
USSR that the satellites as a group bec net importers though indiridukl,
?tries did so,
During 1952 and 1953 all of the satellites except East Germany and
Albania were net exporters of food to the free world, Poland. had the largest
exports and net exports in both years., and showed an increase in both figures
in 1953. In 1952 Czeohoslo is and Hungary were next in order9 but in 1953
their net exports declined and were surpassed by those of R.ia and Bulgaria
(in the net but not the absolute value of exports). The latter two countries
showed a decided increase in grain exports in 19539 but the level of their
Albania B s only trade in food with the West was a small. Import of sugar
in 1953, East Germany was a. net importer of most kinds of food in both years9
with overall net values of 432 million 1952 and 447 million in 1953,,
Its only appreciable food export was sugar.
It is thought that the above trends in the net positions of northern
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and southern countries were probably continued in 1954, The principal reason
was the effect of new courses which increased domestic food requirements of
the more industrial, satellites more rapidly than output could be expanded.
b. Non-food i .tural Produ is Trade with the Free World
The satellites as a group are net importers from the free world
of agricultural products other than food, and on a scale which somewhat
exceeds net exports of foods, leaving overall agric'ult iral deficits, In 1952
and 1953 the net imports of non-food products were $146,5 million and $12.109
million respectively., and the import surplus for all agricultural products
was $3.8 million in 1952 and $-19.4 million in 195-3.
By far the largest items were textile fibers, which accounted for net
imp is of roughly $100 million in both years, Of these fibers9 cotton
accounted for imports of $64 million in 1952 and $40 million in 19539 while
imports of wool amounted to $32 million and $44 million in these years
exports were negligible, Poland and Czechoslovakia were the largest importers
of these fibers on about the same scale and Ha garlan imports9 largely of
cotton9 were third in importance, Imports of both fibers by East Germany1
R ia9 and Bulgaria were steady bat on a later level, As regards other
textile fibers9 there are small exports of silk from Bulgaria and Czeohoeclo-
ia9 more sizeable imparts of jute by Poland and C ecchoslc eia9 and
imports of other vegetable fibers by C cchoslo ia.9 Ha garyp Polandp and
East Genomy (in that order).
Tobacpo is imported by the northern satellites and exported by Bulgaria
on a small scale, Hides are imported9 primarily by Czechoslovakia and
secondarily by Hungary and Poland. Oilseeds, on the other hand9 are an export,
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product, mainly prom Ht ga and Bulgaria, Gzechoalo lA is both an importer
a an exporter of oilseeds,, Feats and oily (ex41 .ing butter, which appear
under da:i odu(gta) mo in both directions but with. s net imports in
both years,, Gzec?hoalo i,a.9 East Germany, and Poland are the importers and
HungarY the only large expM r, Animal crude materials (Inedible) is a
fairly large net export, of Hungary, C eahoelovak,ia9 Poland,, and Rumania.
Rubber is a eubetantial import of Poland and Czechoslovakia,
ob AgXi '291mlY, Prod~aot~ l ntr B c 7 aX
The three most industrialized satellites - Gzeohoslo ia9 East
rmarvyp and Poland - are importers of all the agri It a , products
mantled in trade agreement announ
ments9 except for sugar9 which each of
them expos,, lmpc s ( ?xporta) of items from all, the agricultural
categ lea ea p?t live animals a" speoifieally mentioned in the case of
ccboalovek a9 a few are missing In East German a nos nc maents, and a few
m s - mostly food ite
for Poland. All three are said to be importers
f gradnq tobacco9 hidea9 cotton, and wool. from other bloc coaantrie
Hungary is in an intermediate position as between industrial and
agricultural products in tra 9 and is an exporter of grains, meat, and
live animals but imparter of most other agricultural products'
The Balkan oo"ntrie'a are prinoipar agricultural exporters within th
bloc,, Rumania is an exporter of meat, fish, gram, and ame miscellaneous
products but iampnms oilseeds, cotton, and fits and vegetables,, Bulgaria
is an exporter of most agricultural goods, but imports cotton, coffee, tea,
and apices, and is mentioned as both importer and a -_ ter for
several,
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categories,, Albania imparts all the foods mentioned in trade agreemett
anram,evts other than fruits and vegetables., but experts all the non-food
items me: tied which inoliude cotta., woo., tobacco,) hides,, and o3lseedsb
End UMIAMIFIED
SEOT
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Table 5o- ALBANIAs EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES IN
EAST WEST TRADE - 1952, 1953
(In thousands of dollars)
1952 1953
SUGAR AND PREPARATIONS
Exports
0
Imports
0
Net
mm
Exports
0
Imports
1
Net
- 1
CRUDE VEGETABLE
1WA,TERIALS9 INEDIBLE
0
0
1
0
/ 1
ANIMAL AND VEGETABLE
FATS AND OILS
0
0
0
54
?54
TOTAL AGRICULTURAL
PROD TS
0
0
1
55
-514.
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UNCLASSIFIED
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