(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP65B00383R000400040008-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 26, 2004
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: March 16, 1963
• Content Type: TELEGRAM

INEOUING TELEGRAM Department of State
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0 Hpprovea i-or Kelease LUU41U3I1 : LIH-KUF'b3tiUUJt$JK0004UUU4UUUt$-t$
SECRET
FROM: MOSCOW
TO: Secretary of State
NO: 2310, MARCH i6, 2 PM
Control : 12318
Rec'd: MARCH 16 a; 196
10:20 AM
ACTION OLPARTMENT 2310, INFORMATION LONDON 233, PARIS 267,
BONN 163,. HONG KONG 780, GENEVA 60.
1. THERE SEEMS TO US TO HAVE BEEN AN UNMISTAKABLE CHA IGE IN
THE SOVIET POSTURE DURING THE PAST SIX WEEKS, IN PARTICULAR
A DRAWING BACK FROM THE FORTHCOMING ATTITUDE TOWARD EAST-WEST
PROBLEMS WHICH FOLLOWED THE CUBAN CRISIS AND LASTED ROUGHLY
E THROUGH MY TALK WITH GROMYKO ON JANUARY 26, PRIOR TO MY DEPARTURE
AID FOR WASHINGTON CONSULTATIONS. THE MAJOR FACTOR IS CERTAINLY
P MOSCOW'S PREOCCUPATION WITH THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PROBLEM,
Cu
USIA IN THE LIGHT OF THE UNEXPECTEDLY (TO MOSCOW) VIOLENT NATURE
NSC OF THE CHICOMS! OPEN OPPOSITION. TO KHRUSHCHEVtS "PEACEFUL
INR COEXISTENCE" POLICIES AND OF THE INCREASINGLY OBVIOUS FAILURE
CIA. OF THOSE POLICIES TO PRODUCE RESULTS IN TERMS OF COMMUNIST
NSA OBJECTIVES. MOSCOW APPARENTLY FEELS THAT NO ACCORD -(TEST-BAN,
OSD GERMANY/BERLIN, RISK-OF WAR MEASURES) IS IN PROSPECT WITH THE
-ARMY
Vy WEST WHICH WOULD NOT AGGRAVATE ITS DIFFICULTIES WITH THE CHICOMS
AIR AND BE VULNERABLE TO LATTER'S ATTACKS. RESULTANT DOLDRUMS
NIC (IF NOT ACTUAL CHILL) IN EAST WEST RELATIONS SEEMS LIKELY TO
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL SOVIET LEADERSHIP DECIDES HOW TO DEAL
` WITH CHICOMS AND STARTS TO DO SO. THIS CLEARLY IS NOW PRIORITY
SUBJECT FOR CONSIDERATION AND DEBATE WITHIN LEADERSHIP HERE
(THOUGH WE KNOW OF NO FACTUAL BASIS FOR RUMORS OF SERIOUS
OPPOSITION TO KHRUSHCHEV, WHICH ARE, IN ANY CASE, RECURRENT
MOSCOW PHENOMENON). PROCESS MAY WELL BE LENGTHY AND OUTCOME
PRESENTLY UNPREDICTABLE.
II. FOLLOWING ARE PRINCIPAL FACTORS LEADING US TO THESE
CONCLUSIONS:
1. SINCE MY RETURN, I AM NO LONGER SERENADED BY SOVIET POST-CUBA
SECRET REPRODUCTION FROM THIS COPY IS
PROHIBITED UNLESS "UNCLASSIFIED"
State Dept. revi"F gt@0Release 2004/05/12 A-RDP65BOO383R000400040008-8
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SECRET
-2- 2310, MARCH 16, 2 PM FROM MOSCOW
THEME SONG OF NEED TO MOVE AHEAD TOWARD SOLUTION OF OUT-
STANDING EAST :WEST PROBLEMS BY "CROUNITED CONCESSIONSn.
INSTEAD I AM ASSAILED BY ACCUSATIONS
IN SETTLING PROBLEMS, WHICH BY WELL-KNOWN SOVIET THOUGH-PROCESS
OF INVERSION, WOULD INDICATE LOSS OF INTEREST ON THEIR PART.
2. SOVIETS ARE NOT ONLY STANDING PAT ON TEST BAN AND
DEPRECATING DISARMAMENT POSSIBILITIES BUT ARE ADOPTING DILATORY
TACTICS ON GERMANY/BERLIN, ON WHICH THEY BUT RECENTLY TOOK
INITIATIVE.
3. EVOLUTION OF BONN-PARIS AXIS WITH ITS IMPLICATIONS IN MILITARY
AND POLITICAL FIELDS IS CAUSING ANXIETY AND EVEN EVOKING
REPEATED REFERENCES IN KHRUSHCHEVIS RECENT SPEECHES TO
"COMPLICATED NATURE" OF INTERNATIONAL SITUATION - A SURPRISING
STATEMENT FROM THE NO. 1 EXPONENT OF HISTORIC DETERMINISM.
4. KHRUSHCHEV'S RECENT TALKS WITH SEVERAL FOREIGN DIPLOMATS
HAVE BEEN DISINTERESTED AND ESSENTIALLY PRO FORMA IN NATURE.
5. SOVIETS ARE INCREASINGLY DISILLUSIONED WITH ANTI-COMMUNIST
ACTIVITIES OF NEW NATIONS (FROM MOROCCCOHTHROUGHNARABOSTATES
TO INDIA) TO. WHICH THEY LOOKED WITH
"PEACEFUL" PROMOTION OF THEIR GOALS AND IN WHICH THEY HAVE
MADE, FOR THEM, HEAVY INVESTMENTS.
6. THEY ARE INCREASINGLY
AMERIGANOCOMMIESPARTI~ESDTOCSWMNGYTOWARD^
AFRICAN AND LATIN CHICOM THESES.
7. EVEN IN EASTERN EUROPE THEY ARE PLAGUED BY PERSISTENT
ECONOMIC SHORTCOMINGS AMONG SMALLER MEMBERS OF BLOC AND SOVIET
INABILITY FORCE PACE OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION WITHIN CEMA.
III. CURRENT TIGHTENING.UP ON DOMESTIC SCENE BOTH ECONOMICALLY
AND IDEOLOGICALLY CERTAINLY NOT UNRELATED TO STAND-STILL IN
SECRET
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SECRET
-3- 2310,. MARCH 16., 2 PM FROM MOSCOW
EAST WEST RELATIONS AND TO CONFLICT WITH CHICOMS BUT WE BELIEVE
PURELY INTERNAL FACTORS ALSO PLAY SUBSTANTIAL ROLE HERE.
ACUTELY CONSCIOUS OF SOVIET WEAKNESS DRAMATICALLY EXPOSED IN
CUBAN CRISIS, SOVIETS HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FACE UP TO RADICAL
REDISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES WHICH WOULD BE ESSENTIAL TO
REMOVE CONTINUING SLUGGISHNESS FROM SOVIET ECONOMY, AND ESPECIALLY
TO SOLVE AGRICULTURAL PROBLEM. INTERNATIONALLY, KHRUSHCHEV HAS
THUS LOST BASIC TENET OF HIS "PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE" THEME,
I.E.J. SOVIET ABILITY TO DEMONSTRATE TO WORLD SUPERIORITY BY
EXAMPLE IN ECONOMIC COMPETITION WITH WEST. BUT EQUALLY IMPORTANT,
SOVIET PEOPLE ARE NOT UNAWARE OF KHRUSHCHEVtS FAILURE TO LIVE
UP TO HIS REPEATED PROMISES TO IMPROVE THEIR LOT AND HIS
RECENT PUBLIC ADMISSION REGIME CANNOT PROVIDE BOTH GUNS AND
BUTTER MUST HAVE BEEN A BITTER PILL FOR HIM TO SWALLOW.
PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE WITH THE CAPITALIST WORLD IN THE IDEOLOGICAL
FIELD WAS RULED OUT BY KHRUSHCHEV AS EARLY AS HIS NOVOSIBIRSK
SPEECH OF OCTOBER 10., 1959, AFTER VISITS TO USA AND CHINA.
CURRENT CLAMP-DOWN IN CULTURAL FIELD IS THUS NOT A NEW POLICY
BUT ONLY FIRST PURPOSEFUL EFFORT TO IMPLEMENT KHRUSHCHEVIS
FORMULATION THAT COEXISTENCE ONLY APPLIES OUTSIDE SOVIET BORDERS
AND IS CONTINUATION OF STRUGGLE FOR COMMUNIST WORLD BY MEANS
SHORT OF MAJOR WAR. HOWEVER., IDEOLOGICAL CLAMP-DOWN HAS DEVELOPED
ONE ISSUE OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL INTERNAL IMPORTANCE IN SOCIETY
LIKE THIS. SOONER OR LATER., SOMEONE WAS BOUND TO RAISE QUESTION
INSIDE THE SOVIET UNION WHICH HAS SO FREQUENTLY BEEN ASKED
OUTSIDE: WHY STALINQS ASSOCIATES DID NOT REVEAL AND TAKE
ACTION TO STOP HIS CRIMINAL TERROR DURING HIS LIFE TIME.
IT HAPPENS THAT EHRENBURG WAS THE ONE TO RAISE THIS QUESTION IN
PRiNT, SO THE FUROR FOCUSED ON HIM-FOR THIS REASON AND NOT
PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF WHAT HE HAS WRITTEN OTHERWISE OR EVEN
BECAUSE HE IS A JEW. IN REPLY, KHRUSHCHEV CHOSE IN HIS SPEECH
OF MARCH 8 TO STATE FLATLY THAT: "STALINIS ABUSE OF POWER
AND THE FACTS OF HIS ARBITRARY RULE BECAME KNOWN TO US ONLY
AFTER HIS DEATH AND THE EXPOSURE OF BERIA." THE BASELESS-
NESS OF THIS ASSERTION COULD BE DEMONSTRATED BY RECOURSE TO
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SECRET
_4_ 2310, MARCH 16, 2 PM FROM MOSCOW
THE FILES OF ANY WESTERN EMBASSY IN MOSCOW COVERING THE STALIN
YEARS OR EVEN TO THE WORLD PRESS. HOWEVER, IT MUST BE APPRECIATED
THAT THIS IS THE KIND OF ISSUE WHICH MAY DETERMINE SOME DAY WHO
SURVIVES OR WHO FALLS IN THIS COUNTRY.
IV. AS FOR KHRUSHCHEV PERSONALLY, HE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIVE
HIMSELF UNMERCIFULLY,, PARTICIPATING IN OFFICIAL CEREMONIES AND
RECEIVING VISITORS TO AN EXTENT WESTERN HEADS OF GOVERNMENT
WOULD CONSIDER A WASTE OF TIME. HOWEVER, IN RECENT WEEKS HE
HAS CLEARLY BEEN A TIRED MAN. IN DELIVERING HIS RECENT ELECTION
SPEECH AND IN MAKING THE ROUNDS OF RECEPTIONS WITH THE FINNISH
PRIME MINISTER HE DISPLAYED LITTLE OF HIS NORMAL VIVACITY
AND READ HIS SPEECHES IN A LISTLESS, MONOTONOUS VOICE. AT
PUBLIC GATHERINGS, INSTEAD OF FOLLOWING PROCEEDINGS WITH HIS
USUAL LIVELY ATTENTION OR ENGAGING IN ANIMATED,, FREQUENTLY
BANTERING CONVERSATIONS, HE HAS APPEARED DISPIRITED AND
HAD THE AIR OF A MAN OVERWHELMED BY HIS BURDENS. HOWEVER,
KHRUSHCHEV HAS DEMONSTRATED HIS RESILIENCY BEFORE, IS;TAKING
THE PRECAUTION OF GETTING OUT OF TOWN FOR A WHILE, AND MAY
WELL BOUNCE BACK WITH NEW VIGOR. IN ANY EVENT, HIS CURRENT
DEPRESSION SEEMS CLEARLY TO. RESULT LESS FROM ANY DIFFICULTIES
WITH HIS COLLEAGUES THAN FROM HIS DIFFICULTIES WITH A COMPLI-
CATED WORLD WHICH NO LONGER FITS HIS EARLIER CONFIDENT ANALYSES.
SCP-2.
KOHLER
SGC
SECRET
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