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December 9, 2016
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December 10, 1998
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January 20, 1960
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PDF icon CIA-RDP66R00546R000200110019-2.pdf722.82 KB
f.s B-R-A-F-T 0 January 1960 `:-~'C:RKING PAPER ON A MONITORED BAN ON THE PRODUCTION OF LONG-RIL74GE BALLISTIC MISSILES I. P OBLE~i A. To assess the technical feasibility of developing a system to detect violations of an international agreement which prohibits or limits production of long-range ballistic missiles. B. To assess existing intelligence information and available ca,U ction techniques which may be applicable. C. To determine the prerequisite and continuing conditions rece-t,sary to give a high assurance of detecting any Soviet viola- . ions of such an agreement. II., CONCLUSIONS A. A monitored ban on the production of long-ran ballistic missiles is technicail. feasible provided the agreement includes a vigorous inspection system which guarantees complete access for obse: nation and elicitation within all areas of the Sino-Soviet: B. The production ban and inspection system can operate effectively within. the context of internationally controlled space, research programs. C. An agreement to ban production of long-range ballistic ?` The necessar ~a des ax hl_e elements of such an agreement; and insp;:ction system are included in Annex A. Approved For Release 2001/g31f"' - I RDP66RO054 R0Q0 11 019.- Approved For Rase 2001/(731'01":i` RDP66RQQi46R000200110019-2 missiles must include :.aj:e_ia.rdv against the diversion and adapta- tion of shorter range 7allistic and air defense missiles. 1. A production an must include as a prior condition a precise accounting of existing tissue stoc.Espiles. Intelligence probably will not be able to determine these numbers for early 1961 or 3_963 with sufficient accuracy and high levels of assurance. E. Current and Dzo1 ected intelligence collection assets alone T~,i11 not provide a high assurance of detecting Soviet violations of a production ban. III. ASSUMPTIONS intsrnatio:ai1 agreement to b n or limit the production of lcng-range missiles is effected during the period 1960.1963. B. The Soviets will examine means, and may attempt, to circumvent whatever agreement is adopted. this paper assumes neither agreement nor disagreement on the control of nuclear warheads. D. For purposes of the production agreement "long-range ballistic missiles" include any ballistic missile with a capability to-deliver a nuclear payload to a nominal range over 650 nautical miles. iv. DISCUSSION (This section outliner, the general areas which may be detailed in a later dxvtft to support the conclusions reaented in Section II. It is intended to supplement this discussion w th. data as indi.eated in the Proposed Appendices, Section'V.) The alternative methods by which the Soviet Union might Approved For Release 2001/0 CIA-RDP66R00546R000200110019-2 Approved For Release 2001/03/02 : CIA-RDP66R (046R000200110019-2 c3rci.imvent '.c aF*~E.ernent wexicb prohia-,its or -limits prcd-iictlon of lcx ;_re,:.~ Q hall sF.ic missiles i,, 11r oduc bion.: assembly ar ct ;ieployment of mi sai1es and r x~.soc fated equipment clandestinely aft ,91- mutual dise:rmeaanex t s been es:"_ ected . 2. Negation of the short-term effect of a ban on pzodue . t5 on by, clandestine of missiles and egpippment a1r ,y in beiww when mutua..L disarmament, is implem -rated. of ICBM xares: zuctioz; within the s rt;'riff ea of a large space ex.1 .c:a e~at.1or program . The nat!are of the a eement icy ban or limit production ne the extent of Ani si.le activity and. space research that : ,y r ui3Y2E4bl ar rse -rmi~.-red .- 11 ciatio ashin of a srace projT. m- to capebilxt;, to produccc lozq -ranp.~ he,ilistlc missiles. 2, Re1aa l ionsh:in of other missile development programs to the production of 1o ?r r e be llxati.H missiles N. P oduc",-.on involved in an agreement peg.mi.ttix .:.Lm:+.ted and troop trai.r_ Lng C. Elements of vrsF~,:,z?ol a ri inspect-.on system,. 1. A.cca~txn ; .bi1i r for rer -tin naaL rials . o to '. ?.f r for rocket e 71 /~ t (,, 17 Fa; Y 1 t _, s over A 5r 004 p~}..,!lc 5x2,:=`lrt C' :.~? of mi si +.e .P 4`..C F,.` M.?i's-. Approved For Release 2001/03/02 CIA-RDP66R00546R000200110019-2 Approved For Rase 2001/03/0f:tfa-t'bP66R0J46R000200110019-2 and (h) ;hog .d bast- ,Ne concentrated on nisaile a ,:oct et en : a facilities. S eill.arzce within the Sino-Soviet Bloc to detect ztc car production of long-range ballistic complete fre?elom of access,, and (b) ats? and ground surveillance. D. :?:e: ii ssue C'oll.ectie)n as related to a production ban .nd :elated inspectton system. Z. Inability of dote-mining total Soviet capability to . ?o ,uce ion ,-r ;:nge ballietie missiles. 2. Inability of dete:,,nining ballistic missile stockpile. 3? 25X1 B4b^ ^ ~~. Intelligence collection techniques applicable to detecting Soviet vi6lation. V. PROPOSED AP uiYD CES 4, Current e::4 ;1z.ates gave: the MO the folloT:iing capE.bility to produce ton -rare ballistic missiles: 1961 1963 Pang,, As,med Csasb Programmed Cs sh 700 "100 5, 500 Totals P. Est--!.Tate of the nuthber of facilities involved,, persc,e:l Approved For Release 2001/03/Q 32i-qt 4FOP66R00546R000200110019-2 Approved For Rase 2001/0302 'CIA RDP66RQ46R000200110019-2 inndustri a}1 prQ6 -uiil to sui)pos;t 4,,bov ~ production estimates-, .St9 Cement on how these would be afAe ed by a ban rhic;ha a ..ows a space program but a) prohibits mise'+.le Production., oz? b) limits long-range missile production to ziz of an agrc;ec.3. atocktsi.le. C Estimate of the number and size of the facilities anr to r11tar of personnel involved. In covert production of 1, 10, az d 20 wAssi1es per moratb. D ' atinate of :hc! averse numbers of missiles Produced per month in the Sovlot Uraicn i.n Support of R & D, testing and trot) training, 1954..1959 1?xe :~tx 1955 1956 19 2 'QUO 5,500 Space Research 1% Estimate of the average alum er? of rocket engines proc:,uead per month in the Soviet Union ..ra Esupport of R & D, testing ana trocp training 3S)5041 1-3N,59. rus,t '5' 000 Coo 250 o OOo o., ooo -954 1955 x,9.56 1957 1958 19`:12 Fa f30stinw e of is tee. 3 z ztrc:a: a of 5o,~.rlet long-raw e tal:l:tst:c necesc3a. y t.o support. cwt - rm au kBin:tmix-a attack orcc?_s a&ai aat US , and D W N , t a r t ~:;,. fa a;c :zt J a 1961 and 196_-1. Approved For Release 2001/03/42;: C IA-RDP66R00546R000200110019-2 Approved For Rase 2001/03/02 :pCJy4-RPP 6R W46R000200110019-2 or Approved For Release 2001/03/02 CIA-RDP66R00546R00020011,0019-2 n,*7:?.t 's ASS' 4''~a?' '~34a11. .C? 'Wider '0 bring the JL r* Approved For Rase 2001/03/02: Ar 66R 46R0002001 1t0019-2 A0 t2mg 8 as to the MV um o the- fir,. ,t. 1. Stringent intern tionsl control of the devea `i fabxIcation, teeting or use of Vehicles and rocked Once operations. i m b r i c a t i o n or p r o d u 4 t i o 4 of apace V&WL4100 being limited to per month. 2. A ban on the production of ]Long--rye bs1],i .c it.ailoe and limitation or rocket engine production to a rate that, will esupport the c ntrolled space progr o 3. The prohibition of deeelopt e t and testing of 1c ngw range ballistic missiles. 40 he de tion of existing s OC4114g and fae1 itle fo r all t of ballistic missiles. includlu g- MM"Ine x , short-rangy and air defense missiles. The agi emet meelr or may not call for datattction of long-range missilee and pr'o tio1a tooling. S. its of the IXpe gnte m. 1. Nascecnsry s. On the initiative of, the inspection tee, r3 t to periodic,, immediate and unrestricted access and eotionn of missile facilities and i t, both declared, and unda .ared, to ascertain ehether a long-rem V. adaailee capability, is concealed. Approved For Release 2001 /031 k-%IA P66R00546R000200110019-2 Approved For R J ase 2001/63iOf . RDP66R( 46R000200110019-2 C. if aC daII 2 A~'S`?' .1.0FR Of MUTIUD G ie W d pvoduetion o3 ?g is agreed to the. right to audit ewt ;i s W4riiebi :;~ and the r . t to cac ,re reweeentarbive samples of Iwoduction ct t ec and eoVonaWm, for t cal and making cna ysie. da it account bi1it7 for use of oclected f r used and roan.-finished t .+ proctred rocket engUm and restricted ssi proevion facilities. e o e xvieht to u strictaed access to and iwrscti= of shipyards es Wa1': ox' conwh-actica or modifying vesaala for launching of Awl Approved For Release 2001/( RDP66R00546R000200110019-2