OUTLINE OF SPEECH GIVEN AT AIR WAR COLLEGE NATIONAL SECURITY FORUM
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4
Release Decision:
RIFPUB
Original Classification:
K
Document Page Count:
9
Document Creation Date:
November 16, 2016
Document Release Date:
April 4, 2000
Sequence Number:
2
Case Number:
Publication Date:
April 27, 1959
Content Type:
OUTLINE
File:
Attachment | Size |
---|---|
CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4.pdf | 254.34 KB |
Body:
Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4
W LIRE OF SPEECH GIVEN AT
AIR WAR COLLEGE NATIONAL SECURITY FORUM
April 27, 1959
BY
ALLEN W. DULLES
"THE WORLD SITUATION"
A Word About Intelligence C=ity
1. IBTROWCTIO - Dal with basic issues - rather than
attempt country-by-country analysis.
2. Most troubles stem from Sino-Soviet Bloc policies
Ito longer merely nationalistic - International
Communism has world-wide ambitions.
3. Some problems - - even if no international Communism -
Nations emerging from colonial rule - - Africa, Cuba,
etc. - - but even these aggravated by Bloc's activities.
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4. General political posture of U.S.S.R. (Deal with china
separately.)
not propose initiate general war
(b) Will it be more adventuresome now that it
has nuclear semi plenty?
Some division of thought here.
Stalin adventuresome in Korea - Berlin
before had nuclear bombs.
On balance believe Khrushchev will be
more active than in 1953-1958 period
but short of war.
Will emphasize the subversive type of
actions - drag - Capitalize on incompetence
of new countries to govern.
(d) What about limited wars? Ware by Proxy
(as Korea).
Emphasis on secrecy - security (Geneva talks)
Hide weaknesses and permit surprises.
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y pose of U.S.S.R.
I mphasi$ on -
(a) Guided missiles,
(b) Nuclear power.
nventional weapons.
Nuclear subs?
Defense against air attack.
they ahead over-all? No.
there be a missile gap?
Why did we do so little in missiles between 1943-19531
Industrial position
Refer New Orleans speech)
G.N.P. - 4
Put greater proportion of G.N.P. back into industri&
capacity.
7. Will agriculture slow them down?
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90
4b
The alliance still strong with the U.S.8.R'
(Are there potential fissures?)
U.S.S.R. sensitive to communes.
Tibet.
Attitude toward Taiwan
(The Warsaw talks).
and NATO - but compromise short of war,
rlin - lbruahchev's intentions - split Allies
eping Berlin going as industrial city.
East German regime - Ulbricbt.
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5=
(b) Middle East
Here Co rniunist and old Imperialist Russian
Khrushchev's plan use Iraq and Kurds to
split Middle East - move into heart of oil
eras .
Iraq - is it Communist controlled?
Communism?
The threat to Iran.
The future of Arab Nationalism.
Quemoy and Taiwan
Will CHICt 3 renew offensive?
(d) Latin America
Cuba and non-intervention - end of
dictatorships.
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6.
(e) Free democracies versus Communist-dominated
(f
societies
Democracy requires education, experience,
discipline and patience -- Can't expect new
societies of SEA - Africa, etc., to apply
our standards.
Trend toward military autocracies -
Burma, Pakistan, Sudan, Indonesia, etc..
Headlong rush to freedom - in Black Africa
C tition with U.S.S.R. for role of Economic
Guide to Uncommitted World
The appeal of U.S.S.R. - In three decades from
underdeveloped state to No. 2.
Yet we have great advantages - but legislative
strings - annual Congressional battle - little
ability to long-term planning hampers our
:effort
European powers - England - Germany - France
Italy can play supporting role.
long-term loans - Development Fund - beet
%never.
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the Subversive Threat
The Communist Parties - Front organizations.
In general making progress - decline in
Communist parties - France - Italy.
Indonesia turning away.
But etilliong way to go.
(h) Disax ament Reality or dream.
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8.
Recapitulation:
Since fall of China - that is, for last nine years -
on balance - international Communism has on balance made
no net gains (North Vietnam versus evacuation East
Austria).
Free World on balance relatively stronger
economically and politically -
U.S.S.R. has made gain in becoming great nuclear
and in missile field - giving it strong
blackmailing weapon (if we let them frighten us)
U.S.S.R. Putting larger percentage its national
Product into national objectives - military and related
fields,
whether we can safely continue Put three times
as much into consumer goods - luxury items - raising
living standards, etc. -
may have to tighten belts if U.S.S.R. continues
its present national security policies.
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9.
12. Finally You suggested that I give intelligence estimate
for futures
1. The Free World can continue to maintain position
of overall superiority*
If it remains united and militarily prepaared.
it) refuses to retreat or compromise
If it moves with assurance and speed in
helping to deal with the economic problems
of the uncommitted, underdeveloped world.
(d) If it succeeds in arousing the Free World
growing end for consumer goods.
Not hopeless that in decade or so - a different
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