OUTLINE OF SPEECH GIVEN AT AIR WAR COLLEGE NATIONAL SECURITY FORUM

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4
Release Decision: 
RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
K
Document Page Count: 
9
Document Creation Date: 
November 16, 2016
Document Release Date: 
April 4, 2000
Sequence Number: 
2
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
April 27, 1959
Content Type: 
OUTLINE
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4.pdf254.34 KB
Body: 
Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 W LIRE OF SPEECH GIVEN AT AIR WAR COLLEGE NATIONAL SECURITY FORUM April 27, 1959 BY ALLEN W. DULLES "THE WORLD SITUATION" A Word About Intelligence C=ity 1. IBTROWCTIO - Dal with basic issues - rather than attempt country-by-country analysis. 2. Most troubles stem from Sino-Soviet Bloc policies Ito longer merely nationalistic - International Communism has world-wide ambitions. 3. Some problems - - even if no international Communism - Nations emerging from colonial rule - - Africa, Cuba, etc. - - but even these aggravated by Bloc's activities. Approved For Release. 2009/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 4. General political posture of U.S.S.R. (Deal with china separately.) not propose initiate general war (b) Will it be more adventuresome now that it has nuclear semi plenty? Some division of thought here. Stalin adventuresome in Korea - Berlin before had nuclear bombs. On balance believe Khrushchev will be more active than in 1953-1958 period but short of war. Will emphasize the subversive type of actions - drag - Capitalize on incompetence of new countries to govern. (d) What about limited wars? Ware by Proxy (as Korea). Emphasis on secrecy - security (Geneva talks) Hide weaknesses and permit surprises. Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDFg7p058R000200030002-4 Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 y pose of U.S.S.R. I mphasi$ on - (a) Guided missiles, (b) Nuclear power. nventional weapons. Nuclear subs? Defense against air attack. they ahead over-all? No. there be a missile gap? Why did we do so little in missiles between 1943-19531 Industrial position Refer New Orleans speech) G.N.P. - 4 Put greater proportion of G.N.P. back into industri& capacity. 7. Will agriculture slow them down? Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-0005PR000200030002-4 Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 90 4b The alliance still strong with the U.S.8.R' (Are there potential fissures?) U.S.S.R. sensitive to communes. Tibet. Attitude toward Taiwan (The Warsaw talks). and NATO - but compromise short of war, rlin - lbruahchev's intentions - split Allies eping Berlin going as industrial city. East German regime - Ulbricbt. Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 5= (b) Middle East Here Co rniunist and old Imperialist Russian Khrushchev's plan use Iraq and Kurds to split Middle East - move into heart of oil eras . Iraq - is it Communist controlled? Communism? The threat to Iran. The future of Arab Nationalism. Quemoy and Taiwan Will CHICt 3 renew offensive? (d) Latin America Cuba and non-intervention - end of dictatorships. Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP7.0.-00058R000200030002-4 Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 6. (e) Free democracies versus Communist-dominated (f societies Democracy requires education, experience, discipline and patience -- Can't expect new societies of SEA - Africa, etc., to apply our standards. Trend toward military autocracies - Burma, Pakistan, Sudan, Indonesia, etc.. Headlong rush to freedom - in Black Africa C tition with U.S.S.R. for role of Economic Guide to Uncommitted World The appeal of U.S.S.R. - In three decades from underdeveloped state to No. 2. Yet we have great advantages - but legislative strings - annual Congressional battle - little ability to long-term planning hampers our :effort European powers - England - Germany - France Italy can play supporting role. long-term loans - Development Fund - beet %never. Approved For: Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 the Subversive Threat The Communist Parties - Front organizations. In general making progress - decline in Communist parties - France - Italy. Indonesia turning away. But etilliong way to go. (h) Disax ament Reality or dream. Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 8. Recapitulation: Since fall of China - that is, for last nine years - on balance - international Communism has on balance made no net gains (North Vietnam versus evacuation East Austria). Free World on balance relatively stronger economically and politically - U.S.S.R. has made gain in becoming great nuclear and in missile field - giving it strong blackmailing weapon (if we let them frighten us) U.S.S.R. Putting larger percentage its national Product into national objectives - military and related fields, whether we can safely continue Put three times as much into consumer goods - luxury items - raising living standards, etc. - may have to tighten belts if U.S.S.R. continues its present national security policies. Approved 'For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP70-00058R000200030002-4 9. 12. Finally You suggested that I give intelligence estimate for futures 1. The Free World can continue to maintain position of overall superiority* If it remains united and militarily prepaared. it) refuses to retreat or compromise If it moves with assurance and speed in helping to deal with the economic problems of the uncommitted, underdeveloped world. (d) If it succeeds in arousing the Free World growing end for consumer goods. Not hopeless that in decade or so - a different Approved For Release 2000/05/04: CIA-RDP11Q-00058R0002000;30002-4