RUSSIA RUSHES ICBMS, U.S. STUDIES OWN PACE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70B00338R000300080014-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 9, 2006
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: December 7, 1966
• Content Type: NSPR

I MdIAMARA
aaroved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP70B00338R000300080014-2
0 - Viv, (03,- uce
y
Continued From Page A-1 Yesterday he rested his case He said he is proceeding, as
for a decade. It is a new reality Ion three general statements: he promised in January, with;
1 Even if the new intelligence
only for the United States.
I the procurement and installation {
i
f
S
key congressional committees
will try to change this.
McNamara's new defense
budget, which will go to Con-
gress in January, will estimate
the total of American dead even
in the most favorable all-out war
circumstances so high that he
and President Johnson will
conclude that the damage would
be, in Pentagon terminology,
"unacceptable." The nation
itself would be dead.
But the chiefs will argue, if
questioned by congressmen, that
calculations are uncertain, that
it is better to try than to give up,
and that what is "unacceptable"
now to defense officials may be
"tolerable" later to the survi-
vors.
Political Issues
The immediate issues over
military hardware will become
political issues in the coming
year.
The chiefs want more mis-
siles. The United States is
building toward 1,050 ICBMs.
Russia, judging from Mc-
Namara's statement yesterday,
is aiming somewhat below that
number. They probably have 400
or 500 today. The U.S. has close
to 1,000.
The chiefs also want to install
the Nike-X-the only available
defense against Soviet ICBMs.
And the chiefs want a new
bomber which could seek out
Russian missiles in time of war
and thus could hedge against
failure of American missiles.
Nike-X and the new bomber
were supported by the last
Congress-o v e r McNamara's
objections.
It is likely that the next Con-
gress also will support a bigger
missile force, because McNa-
mara implied strongly that the
United States will lose its pres-
ent and projected 3-to-1 or 4-to-1
lead over Russian ICBMs.
Until yesterday, McNamara
has said that the United States
has a 3 or 4 to 1 advantage and
that this advantage will continue
in the forseeable future.
Yesterday he said that "this is
still true today." But said only
that the United States will
continue to have a "substantial"
quantitative -and qualitative
advantage in the future.
The business of comparing
nuclear-war forces is subtle and
complex, and in the past, Con-
gress has had little patience for
the details of the McNamara
arguments.
Appro
ov
et
estimates o
the future
missile program are accurate,
the United States will continue
to be ahead.
2, "The United States has as
many ICBMs today as the latest
national intelligence estimate
gives the Soviet Union several
years hence."
3. The American nuclear
retaliatory force today and in
the future will be able to absorb
any Russian attack and still
strike back with damage "unac-
ceptable" to the Soviet Union,
and to any other possible combi-
nation of enemies.
But some of the subtleties, if
Congress asks for them, are
these:
A comparative count of
ICBMs on each side has no real
military significance-only a
political significance.
American missiles are aimed
at several kinds of enemy
targets-his ICBMs, airfields,
communication centers, air
defenses, submarine bases and
cities.
Up to a point, the United
States should have enough
nude a r weapons-ICBMs,
submarine-based Polaris mis-
siles, bombers-to insure a
reasonable chance of destroying
all of those targets. The number
of ICBMs on the enemy side is
not the determining factor.
Up to a Point
These considerations are true,
in the McNamara estimate, up
to the point which may already
have arrived and certainly will
arrive if the Russians continue
their accelerated missile-build-
ing programs.
This is the point at which it
makes no difference to Ameri-
can survival what efforts are
made to destroy Russian wea-
pons.
The best possible American
offense and defense, even in a
surprise American attack on the
Soviet Union, would leave the
Russians with enough surviving
ICBMs to retaliate against
American cities and kill 100
million or so Americans, Mc-
Namara estimates. Therefore,
according to the theory, there is
no use making the extra offen-
sive and defensive efforts.
The only rational American
strategy, McNamara would
argue privately if not publically,
is to insure that the war does not
start.
He is already doing this, he
indicated yesterday, by insuring
that the American ICBMs and
o penetra any 02 t de onse
and kill half the Russian people.
of Minuteman 3 ICBMs and the;
development of Posicden sub-
marine missiles and of "pene-
tration aids" designed to over-
come possible Soviet defense
against missiles or bombers.
Pentagon officials say that
each of the new American
missiles will be worth considera-
bly more than one of the mis-
siles they will replace. They will
have greater ability to penetrate
enemy defenses and they may
carry multiple explosive pack-
ages, each of which could de-,
stroy a target.
The new look at the Soviet
missile defense has convinced
high officials that even a few;
hundred of the old American
missiles could overcome it and
inflict "unacceptable" damage.
a Fwd
By RICHARD FR~'IiLUId'D l as the proposed Nike-X
star staff writer missile missile, will be able to
the the United States from
Top Defense Department national disaster if Russia
officials believe the bleak day is attacks.
now in sight when no kind of Preventive war won't save the
national defense or offense will country, so national hopes lie in
be able to save the United States the prevention of general nu-
if Russia decides an all-out clear war-that is, in the pre-
nuclear attack. servation of a nuclear deterrent
The United States, however, nand uclear the construction which willasnon.
still could destroy Russia in I other wars short of a nuclear
turn. exchange.
This is the ultimate signifi- Even if McNamara is right,
canoe of Secretary of Defense none of these conclusions means
Robert S. McNamara's state- that national extinction is inevi-
meats yesterday at the Texas tible or probable.
I Every other country in the
White House. 1 world has been in this positon
After conferring with the i See McNAMAIi.A, Page A-"
President) McNamara told
reporters that new intelligence
estimates conclude that the
Soviet Union is installing ICBMs
-nuclear missiles capable of
hitting the United States-at a
faster rate than had been esti-
mated a year ago.
But the United States need,
take no untimed steps to meet
this new threat, he said-no
additional American interconti-
nental ballistic missiles beyond
those already programmed, no
missles designed to intercept I
and destroy Russian ICBJ\fs. 1
Cl 1R on y~i R X614 ~ 40014-2
that no defensive weapon, such