ZAMBIA: PETROLEUM SUPPLY SITUATION WORSENING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70S00385R000100240002-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 4, 2002
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 14, 1967
• Content Type: IM

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C~A.L xiI,LSG4H At>FY
Directorate of Itri23g+enee
1~ Dec~abe~r ~.qE~7
INI'F.I.ISGI~CE !'ffi~I{3Ut1M
~~zrtbi~t t Petrole4utt tw situation. Wow
3uz....~
Zn mid-N~v~nbsr 1967, Ztmtbi~s's tott~l oil +~t~ocks were only about a
wet~:'s supply ~-- the lowest ~~ teaehed since emergeney oil impart
operations bean in l.ata 1.965. '~y 7 I~ce~mbe~, supplies of eaome~ products
re~gulaar gasolis~ sxtd diesel fuel -? ~e eufiicient for only three
days current consumption. If the ~'~se~t rateei of delivery and con-
sumption continue, Zambia wil.]. exhe-ust its e~tcxk~ by the end of
I~cember and thereafter ~ril.l. bas d+~pender~t ot~ exxatic and uncerrtein
deliveries . ~i.orteges of 1.et~a could Blow sows production in the
copper industry, one of the Ist coneume:~rs of pretroleum products,
and the only important indua~txy in Zambia.
~mbia may reQus+,et an oil airlift siml3er tt~ that previously
carried out 1?y the t~{, the US, Csnade- in 'ly 1966. Howevea~,
it is Likely Ghat i$ will be able to taope with the situation through
the reimposition of sict rationing and other abort-term e~ldients.
Oil shc?'tetges, how~ave3r, will probe;bly cause sow slowdown in e3conomic
activity aver the next fe:w mcmt~e3. ~e logistic problem of oil de>~
Livery to Zambia should be evolved p:ently about September 1~8,
when the pipeline now being built to Zambia from ~r-es?~l+~.am in
Tanzania iee scheduled to be cc~npleted.
Note : This m~~noreindum wae3 produced solely by CI.A. It was prepared
by the Office of Economic Resew end coordinated with then Office3 of
Current Yntelligence.
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~`
~~
],~ ~mb;ta : ~t.ff~~=~ ~intai~.~$ ~t ~zd~qu~te ;~,etx~uut
au~ply s3tbce :late 19s $ the U.K. bl,otde of c~#.I. shunts to
Rhodesia: aieo ofd' ?bi~!'s xtorm~ s~ rows. Aa $n alternative,
1.aaadl.oclo~l ~eab#.a ett~sted to ~~ v#.ae ~aurfatce routes
through ~, Ccngo {Kim a~ ,t~tt~is, e~ ~~ a~S ~C.ieaetbique.
the blc~~tc~e stated, 2a~tti?~ fwd ilk two weeks of stocks at
Tatiox~ed levels tl~ t~, LT3~ ~ ~ assisted. by estRblia3~ir~ an
ase~ry airli~?t. ~r ~ieEy 1966 e~rst of #~e ~rl3fts had wed,
atc~cke had been built ~? to about ~'6 week ~l,Y: car 2J,E34a taae~.
T,ambia. ab~.e to ~iA abt~catt e. three t f~pi,3t' during the- t
QP i .
2. In early 1967, ~et~~ de1.3:wvsri~ itt exxi stogy were
about 2C}, tx7t~ toua by the end mil $eepite ;Leered coum~ti.on.
Rationing on stoat petrvleu~ parc~ducts 1 gar~tually r81d ax-d in
A~zgust of this yeah ~ restriGtiax-e #~ +~.' x~egu3.sa~ 8~ $~o"
].~.ne were rcirv~.
The Curreztt Prob1~
3. ~'~'O~.EtI 8'~t'#: r b!~'n .Tif~.~'Ci~ ~~.~@ 1~,C~y~.~~. $J ffi3.d..
November they were rlr~rra. to i~#, a ot~e week. st~?a],y aa~ subsequetrt];,r
have decrt~sed ~urthez'. Ii` Ption i.s Avt r~ mad ~.~' delivery
rates dtr n~ intr~rrnre sharp.~t tbts- well euat its ~ UL 8tock?s
befcxre end of 1~6` . At a , the c~~` will face sevez'e
eh~tages of e~ tykes of ~e'tat~ale~eus procitfe#.s.
~. T~ ~~" ~ ode th+a shr~s is #b~e decxe~e in deliver3ea
over t3ae Graet ~h Rce~d,, ~rhich runes beta 1~er?es-Sslea in 'Fa~t,zania
quid the prtpu.I.ated. ~ taf ee~1 Zombie. Tl~f.e rt>~tc3. has 'been c~srrying
about three-cuartere ~s~ #~ Qi]. rea-ching ~.~mb2~t. ~ cYt?t~e-c~rrer iu.
recent mrmthe Prtxg trucks ~ 0~.1 in rubber eeeltan~cs cx e~teel
dru~ts to 'bard. ~ hiss been ~' than exrCieipe~sd. Cc~trsc~tc~s
hauling drama have `been ~3~16 cwt fa~te~r the ta~alse~ have been ~tasing
in. In Augue t 1967 textkers t'i+ed only abo~ a gu+srter of the tesgeted
eaaount .
~. (~' gro'~1a~ss h e~.sa adve~ael4y ai!'ee't?~! delieeries aver
the Eb~~t Noz~th Read, which has detericrrat~d belly after two years of
use that hoe fear e~eaded r3eaign l.i~itetion$. ~SntenPCnce hem 'been
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inadequate end repave on the 1Ar~, ions of the road has caused
additione~l delays far' the Toad hau.:L, ~00100240002-3
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during the raiz~y aeaeon -~> Ncavven-r through April -- total.
e . veer es over the rand. could drop at l.e~est fifteen percent. Deliveries
et this law rate could require ~ Cut back in 7.~biax~ oi3 canstion
of at least th3.r-~r peratsnt. Ev~rn if the rai.z~ light, and 'trucks
carrying drama are p~~soc'i into service, gc~e f'~ of increasp~d rationing
would aPPe~' #.o be nec~er.
10. ~ ~;?oret ?chc~tagee ~ come .over tkze nmact month ~ so until
tempcyrary edients are impl.~nt~ and mare bulb rakers, now an ord?~r,
are deliverred. The aid pipe'r1. ztow wader construction between Taxissnia
and Zambie~ is scheduled to be es~mple~ted in Septe~tbl~ 1.968, which shc~xld
end logistic ~~rab~~~~s now ass~t~ ~rS.th oil dr~ll.veCiss. Me~mrhile~
7.,smbia' g deve].opmetnt program, wbtf~- ~ already bpi cut back becaue+e
of r~anpcnrer ar::d m~ter3.el shaa^tetges, m+sy be pared ~~r'. Cappar mining ?-
the country's only implortant industry -- may have to be slowed, since
it i s a mad ar consumer of pa~'~v].euna products .
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?~.smbiaa 1!+~nthty t ~'~ .d #~tock~
{19f~ - 197
In chart tQn~)
3966 stvalsa 1g67 Stocks
Tmp~rts end of month ~e end tsf t~zth
January
I/+,zK70
12,440 1
80
44
12,000
February
37,E
15,400
21.~
~
14,544
March
2',200
22,744
x,4
44
17,044
.'aril
17, 544
~5 s1flO
23,0
00
21,tX34
May
~~,~
, ~
22,0
20,4W
sane
~.~, 54fl
~9ocy
2t),4
0a
a.,4ao
J~.ily
16 , 340
~, -
~?, c
x~
17, 4t)0
August
23,100
17:900
16,
o4cj
1fl,000
I;eptember
I&,340
1~F,$O4
2rj,
0i~J
14,404
October
23,240
26 f4t30
22,
044
$,4(?0
Ntsvember
19,000
15 ~,;~44
21,
4Q0~+'
5,'T'~'
December
1~,Ofl0
33,140
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,OLUANDA
CENTRAL AFRICA
MAJOR TRANSPORT
ROl1TES
Railroad
Road
Barge
Copperbelt
Coalfield
R` Coal mine
Oil pipeline
Oil refinery
O Capital
~ 140 200 300 Miles
-i i ~ --
0 100 200 300 Kilometers
DAM ~~
i fi ~traH
S?UT1-1ER
'Kidatu ~ G~
Mtwara
r
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