TRANSMITTAL OF NINTH MONTHLY REPORT ON AGRICULTURAL PROSPECTS IN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70T00666R000100180003-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 29, 2001
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 26, 1964
• Content Type: MF

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CT 1964
RA3 :R Deputy Direc
Transmittal 0:
(Inte
Prospects in CM=Mist
then
. Since harvests in the principal agricultural countries are
M:pw Huai, complete, ve a dt, ontinuing the monthly series as
d by YOU. It the agricultural situation varratuts, monthly
pis can again be started in the spring of 1965; in the meantime
post developments can be reported in appropriate OCI and CRR
p i cati .
Distribution: (21.4347)
2-- Addressee
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OCh/E/RRI1c/7605 (26 October 1964)
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26 October 1964
ESTIMATED AGRICUIMURA,L ti[TI'PUT IN CM4UNIST COUNTRIES, 1964
1. USSR
Crop production in the USSR in 1964 definitely will be the best
since the banner year of 1958 and will probably exceed the 1958 level.
Grain, sugar beet, sunflower seed, and cotton crops were good and the
output of vegetables and potatoes was fairly satisfactory.
The harvest of grain crops was practically completed by mid-October,
while the harvest of other crops was rapidly nearing completion. Although
the area sown to grain was somewhat greater than in 1958, it is tenta-
tively estimated that grain production in 1964 will about equal the
125 million tons estimated for that year. Wheat production is now
estimated to have been about 50 percent above the 1963 level of 40
million tons. Grain yields in 1964 were not as uniform as in 1958,
which is reflected in lower yields in some areas, and poor harvesting
conditions in the new lands' areas of western Siberia and northern
Kazakhstan undoubtedly have resulted in excessive trash and moisture
content in the harvested grain.
As of mid-October the USSR had already procured about 66 million
tons of grain (compared to a previous high of 57 million), which is
virtual fulfillment of the 67 million tons planned for 1964. The
increase in grain procurement in 1964 is probably attributable to
somewhat smaller livestock herds, especially swine, and the desire
of Soviet leaders to build up state reserves.
With the expanded acreage planted to sugar beets and sunflowers
(the principal oilseed crop), record harvests of these crops are indi-
cated. Procurement of sugar beets most likely will exceed the record
52 million tons made in 1960, but will fall short of the plan of 70
million tons. Soviet officials have Indicated that the procurement
plan for sunflower seed will be fulfilled. The cotton harvest will
probably be somewhat below the record crop of 5.2 million tons harvested
in 1963. The procurement of cotton is running behind the 1963 pace.
With a record crop of feed grains (primarily corn, barley, oats,
and pulses), good supplies of feedatuffs are being procured, and
prospects for improvement in animal husbandry continue to be favorable
at this time.
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2. European Satellites
It is estimated that 1964 agricultural production in the Satellites
not only was below planned goals, but also showed no significant im-
provement over the mediocre year 1963. Preliminary estimates indicate
a total output of grain no better than last year's 43 million tons. Al-
though the production of breadgrains increased slightly over 1963, that
of coarse grains declined., and output of both grains remained below the
average level of 1957-61 for the third successive year. Thus, Satellite
grain import requirements for the consumption year 1964/65 will equal
the more than 7 million tons imported in 1963/64.
Official statements on the outcome of this year's grain harvest have
been sparse and very general. Only Hungary, of the Satellites importing
wheat in 1963, has stated that the 1964 breadgrain harvest would meet
domestic needs "under certain conditions." Production of vegetable oil-
seeds and hay crops is estimated to be below 1963 in most Satellites.
On the other hand, there are claims of good crops of late vegetables,
potatoes and sugar beets. The combination of larger acreages and above
average yields may result in a record output of sugar beets (and sugar)
this year in the European Satellites.
The current livestock situation is far from good, but has improved
from that of last year. This betterment, mainly in the numbers of hogs
and chickens, has been reflected in higher state procurements pPntscofcmearates,
and eggs in some Satellites. Shortages of roughage
however, will make it difficult for most countries to carry current num-
bers of meat animals through the winter. Prospects in the coming year
for any improvement in the production of livestock products appear
brightest in Hungary.
The Satellites -- all except Rumania -- have currently contracted
to purchase an estimated total of 4 million tons of grain from the Free
World during the consumption year 1964/65. None of this grain has been
purchased from the United States. Purchases of grain from the Free World
could eventually equal the 5.2 million tons imported in 1963/6 unless
the Soviets agree to increase such exports to Eastern Europe.
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3. Communist China
The total harvest of grain and tubers in Communist China in 1964
is tentatively estimated to be around 180 million metric tons, or about
the same as that produced in 1963. Recent information indicates that
the improvement in the early harvest was somewhat less than earlier
anticipated. During September, unfavorable weather prevailed over
several important agricultural regions for the third successive month,
causing a deterioration in the earlier outlook for a bumper autumn (late)
harvest. Statements disseminated by official (especially provincial)
news media have remained unusually reserved in their assessment of the
current agricultural situation.
An editorial in the 21 September 1964 Peoples Daily stated, "at
present China's agricultural production Levee comparatively low,
and its output of food grain and other staple farm products is, in
the main, insufficient." This statement is substantiated by China's
continued importation of grains. Purchases of grain for delivery in
1964 have reached a record 6.4 million tons.
Recent reports have revealed that damage to the early rice crop in
the south from flooding, overcast weather, and diseases, and to the wheat
crop in the north from waterlogging, was more severe than previously anti-
cipated. Reports on several provinces in Southern and Central China have
implied that early rice yields were little better than the very poor 1963
yields although production was up somewhat because of an expansion in
acreage.
Information received through early October indicates that the late
harvest may be somewhat below the relatively good harvest of last year.
A series of typhoons struck the rich Pearl River Delta during September
and early October, dimming the prospects for a good late rice crop in
this area. Unusually dry weather prevailed over much of Central and
East China for the third successive month. Drought has reportedly
affected the intermediate and late rice crops in some areas. In North
rind Northwest China -- where over one-third of China's autumn crop acreage
is located -- crop prospects are poor. Precipitation has been greatly
above normal throughout the growing season. Waterlogging is believed to
be very extensive in the North China Plain, especially in some of the
major grain and cotton growing areas. It is also believed that the
sowing of winter wheat is being seriously hampered in many areas.
Crop prospects are believed to be fair in Northeast China and good
in the important Szechwan Basin.
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4. North Korea
Grain production may be the lowest since 1959 in North Korea.
Except for July, precipitation was well below normal throughout the
growing season. Conditions were especially dry in the very important
west coast agricultural areas. In addition, a typhoon on 31 July
apparently caused extensive damage in this same area. North Korea,
however, is normally self-sufficient in grain, and it is unlikely that
large imports will be required this year.
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5. North Vietnam
As of mid-September, the fall rice crop, which normally accounts
for about two-thirds of the annual rice output of the country, was
reported to be "rather good." This crop is generally harvested in
October and November. Although typhoon damage was at a minimum this
year, serious insect infestation has been reported in several areas
including the important rice producing Red River delta. Insect
damage may seriously affect the otherwise good prospects for the
fall rice harvest.
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6. Cuba 25X1
A recent analysis of in 1964 production at
various Cuban sugar mills provides no basis ror a change in our earlier
estimate of a 3.8 million metric ton crop. The level of 1964 sugar
exports also remains consistent with the estimate, although during
the eight months from January through August 1964, Cuba exported
about 100,000 metric tons more sugar than during the corresponding
period of 1963. Preliminary analysis indicates that exports remained
at a high level during September. By the end of the latter month,
cumulative shipments for 1964 probably were close to the total ex-
ported during all of 1963. If production was in fact no larger than
last year, very little, if any, sugar will be exported the final quarter
of the year. On the other hand, if a significant volume of shipments
does occur, it will appear that more than 3.8 million metric tons was
produced.
Additional evidence tends to buttress the judgment that Cuba's
production of foodstuffs other than sugar has declined during 1964.
The Cuban press recently published denials that bread would be placed
on the ration list, a development suggesting that the bread supply
situation has worsened. The production of bread itself probably
has not been reduced since it is made entirely from imported wheat
and flour and these imports have not declined. More likely, the
demand for bread has increased to offset a growing scarcity of
domestically produced foodstuffs. One of the Cuban press state-
ments in fact admitted that lower production of viandas (root
vegetables) -- an important component of the Cuban diet -- was
partly responsible for the increased demand for bread. The volume
of foodstuffs imported during the first three quarters of 1964 has
been higher than the corresponding period of last year, but it can-
not be determined if the increase has been sufficient to compensate
for lower domestic output.
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