MINUTES OF THE DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD COMBINED TASK FORCE ON PENETRATION AND WE/SUB-GROUP ON EFFETIVENESS EVALUATION MEETING ON 17 DEC 1968 (U)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP71R00510A000300090031-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2004
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: December 17, 1968
• Content Type: MF

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DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE
HEADQUARTERS UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
WASHINGTON, D.C.
17 DEC 1968
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DISTRIBUTION LIST
SUBJECT: Minutes of the Defense Science Board Combined Task Force
on Penetration. and Efn1/Sub-Group on Effectiveness Evaluation
Meeting on 17 Dec 1968 (U)
General Session - Briefings
The chairman,. Dr. Larry Hunter, opened the meeting by summarizing the
previous meeting. Dr. Hunter crystallized discussions to date in four
main points.
1. Any model is sensitive to intelligence and input data. Use
of models to predict future time period effectiveness complicates the
problem.
2. Our attention is focusing on overall effectiveness evaluation
and identification of the contribution to mission success provided by
-Ew.
3. The general area, of command and control capability and its
degradation due to EW and tactics is lacking in knowledge.
4. Many existing testing efforts are now viewed as providing in-
puts to an aggregate model. A review is needed to establish the
relationships.
Major J. Vance, USAFSS, presented a briefing on Project COMFY COAT.
He discussed the role of COMFY COAT in the Southeast Asia. theater
providing several examples of the projects product. The type of
data used and the methodology of correlation and evaluation was
presented.
Dr. Hunter asked if we knew enough about the command and control in
North Vietnam to predict Ew effectiveness against it. Maj Vance
replied that data, could be provided, and Col Wack noted that we had
not yet stressed the command and control operation and therefore had
no demonstrated data, on its degradation.
In response to a. question from Mr. Porter, concerning the Electronic
Operational Support (EOS) role, Maj Vance indicated that COMFY COAT
data, may provide a, basis for judgement as to the requirement for TAC
ELINT and identify the reason for the requirement.
USAF and NAVY review(s) completed.
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Lt Comdr Evans asked whether the effectiveness of selected elements of
a, penetration have been identified (i.e., the particular jammer or
maneuver contribution). Ma.j Vance answered that some data. is available
but indicated that most data is gross because several elements of
countermeasures are always applied in combination.
Col Tucker, SAC/NORAD JOTF, then introduced the SNOW TIME/TOP RUNG
program. He outlined the agreements, management, functions and
responsibilities of the participating commands and of JOTF (the
Joint Operations Task Force). He provided a, good understanding
of the complexity and involvement in planning and conducting a,
large scale exercise.
Mr. Trask, SAC/NORAD JOTF, presented an outline of how data, is
handled by the JOTF and the participating commands. SAGE tracks
are compared with actual bomber positions to determine if (1) an
undetected track (2) a. partial track, (3) a. complete track, or
(4) a, false track has occurred. JOTF maintains the master data
base for the participating commands.
It was pointed out by Col Wa,ck that an instrumentation requirement
exists for the purpose of obtaining better quality data, of the
penetration as observed at selected radar sites. Mr. Trask agreed
that better quality data, is desired and would allow a; better
analysis to be performed.
In response to a, question by Dr. Hunter, Mr. Trask pointed out that
no conclusions are established on the basis of one mission. The
data from several missions are compiled and general trends'a.re
documented.
The NORAD participation in terms of mission, data. collection, data.
analysis and modelling was introduced by Lt Col Brossius, Hq NORAD
(NOEV-S). The NORAD objective is to provide measured effectiveness
factors obtained from SNOW TIME data as an input to a model. The
output of this model, through extrapolation to enemy penetration
conditions, would be a statement of expected effectiveness against
the threat.
The NORAD operations analyst performing an analysis of SNOW TIME
data, Mr. Wheeler, Hq NORAD, pointed out the objectives of NORAD
analysis:
1. Estimate current effectiveness against the threat.
2. Assess the impact of phasedowns and reorientation.
3. Provide support for recommended improvements to force size
and structure.
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Mr. Wheeler went on to point out that his analysis treats the aggregate
effects of jamming, tactics, operators, etc., primarily because current
instrumentation does not permit a. detailed analysis. Two data, summaries
were presented as the front end of the aggregate model of the defense
system. The data are the actual bomber tracks and the tracks as presented
by SAGE. (These are the same type of data used in the COMFY COAT program
to evaluate effectiveness of EW.)
Mr. Wheeler stated that passive tracking of our defense system is done
manually, with no automatic assistance, in response to a question from
Dr. Lauderdale.
It was again pointed out that extrapolation to expected enemy conditions
using modelling techniques is being attempted when Mr. Porter asked
whether we tried to simulate Soviet penetration tactics in a. SNOW TIME
exercise. A further discussion on this point with Dr. Hunter pointed
out that the modelling effort, correlation with exercise results and
extrapolation, will be without using detailed data.
Lt Comdr Evans asked whether any simulation of large scale exercises
is done, or planned. Mr. Wheeler responded that this was planned as
part of the required instrumentation capability. A replay of past
missions and synthetic raid generation will be attempted.
Maj Hendrikson, Hq SAC, presented the objectives of SAC participation
in SNOW TIME. These are:
1. Tactics development and verification.
2. Developing SIOP ECM degrade information.
3. EW Officer procedures evaluation.
He also pointed out that the computer facility at Hq SAC was used
extensively to process and prepare tapes and data decks from exercises.
These data, are then provided to JOTF for retention in the master data,
base.
The lessons learned from SNOW TIME, TOP RUNG exercises by SAC, were
discussed by Maj Kefa,la,s, Hq SAC. He talked about the effect of
jamming levels and aircraft density on defense system tracking ability.
He summarized how the results of the exercises were factors in developing
tactics, SIOP planning factors, and improving EW officer procedures.
In response to a. question from Mr. Carpenter, it was pointed out that
although lessons learned in the exercises identify requirements for
new capability, that the final Required Operational Capability is
generated by Hq SAC staff action with the concepts, plans, etc.,
personnel all contributing.
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Maj Burton pointed out that the majority of exercise data is gathered
.at-flight levels considerably higher than currently planned for SIOP
execution. This is due to flying safety restrictions associated with
a, peacetime exercise.
It was further pointed out that the model developed by Autonetics is
being applied to more closely evaluate our capability to penetrate
Soviet defenses, in response to a question from Lt Comdr Evans.
Col Burkhalter, Hq USAF, Studies and Analysis, discussed attempts to
solve the problem of valid prediction modeling underway within the
Air Force. He indicated the Air Force Chief of Staff has requested
that such a model be constructed. He went on to say that it would
attempt to incorporate the capabilities of various existing models
and that an effort will be made to insure that the model may accept
as input data, that data gathered during operational and various
R&D testing programs.
When asked by Mr. Porter what the schedule for model development might
be, Col Burkhalter indicated that within sixty to ninety days the kind
of model to be built will be identified. He further stated that the
model is expected to be operational within one to two years.
When Dr. Hunter brought out the point that attention to sensitivity is
most important in model development, Col Burkhalter indicated that
various levels of aggregation will be identified as required to tie-in
needed subroutines.
The capability and type of model currently being used by the Air Force
Studies and Analysis group was discussed by Lt Col Drake from that
office. The PEGASOS model uses selected input files, such as the
number of interceptor bases and locations, number of interceptors and
types, number of bombers and type and route, etc. It then provides
the number of surviving bombers by type and segment, fighter passes
by type and segment, etc. The DIA Pk handbook is used to calculate
attrition, and Lt Col Drake noted that improvements are being incorpo-
rated in this area.. In this model, decoys look extremely effective
when enough are added to accommodate all defensive weapons. However,
turn around times, delays or saturation of command and control are not
currently accountable in the model.
Dr. Hunter noted that this type of model is useful as a, tool to determine
sensitivities, but that belief of direct model outputs as deterministic
would be a, fallacy.
Dr. Myers had questioned earlier the usefulness of using such a, model
to determine the merit of penetration speed against 1975 threats, when
defensive effectiveness is dependent upon tracking slew rates, data
handling capacity and reaction times, and the basic threat is only
postulated, much less any detail data assumed.
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Mr. Camp observed that the model indicates numerous targets (including
decoys) to be most effective against defenses, whereas generic SNOW
TIME data, indicated the insensitivity of the defense to mass. He went
on to point out that this was a good example of the problem before this
group. On one hand a. model, on the other hand data., and no relationship
between the two.
The feasibility of simulating a. Soviet Command and Control Center.to
learn more about its capability was briefed by Dr. Safford from the
MITRE Corp. In his briefing he noted the importance of such data, to
be a result of the role such a center plays in allocating defenses
against penetrators. He stated the objective of the simulation to
investigate the man-machine interface and study the cause/effect
relationship of missed tracks, inaccurate tracks, and false tracks.
He concluded stating that such a, simulation is feasible and that some
value may be derived within six to eight months after start of
construction.
Executive Session
The discussion which took place with the briefings resulted in very
little time being available for an executive session. Dr. Hunter
established that the next meeting will be an executive session.
A brief discussion in response to Dr. Hunter's question of, is there
anything else we should discuss prior to the preparation of an interim
report, took place.
Col Wack indicated that the basic situation as observed from operations
has been briefed. He did indicate that briefings on opera,tiona.l intel-
ligence would need to be discussed at the proper clearance level.
Lt Col Lester offered more detail on various test facility capabilities
if desired, but he felt that an understanding of the'basic R&D problem
has been provided through the briefings thus far.
Capt Lindberg mentioned that some aspects of the NAVY air defense
simulation.may.be applicable and if so, appropriate to discuss.
Subsequent to this,brief discussion, the meeting was adjourned.
STUART L. STAUSS 3 Atch
Administrative Secretary 1. Members in Attendance
DSB EW & Penetration Task Force 2. Distribution List
Effectiveness Evaluation Sub-Group 3. Membership List
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MEMBERS IN ATTENDANCE DURING THE DAY
Dr. Larry C. Hunter, Chairman
Mr. Peter F. Carpenter
Mr. Marlin Kroger
Mr. Kenneth McVicar
Dr. John M. Myers
Mr. John M. Porter
Dr. Lloyd Lauderdale
Capt Chantee Lewis, USN
Capt Donald Lindberg, USN
Col Joseph H. Wack, USAF
Mr. Richard Camp .
Lt Col George Lester, USAF
Ma:j Robert Burton, USAF
Maj James Vance, USAF
Mr. Stuart L. Stauss, Admin Secy
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FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
DISTRIBUTION LIST
DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD COMBINED TASK FORCE ON PENETRATION AND EW
SUB-GROUP ON EFFECTIVENESS EVALUATION
Industry
Dr. Larry C. Hunter,. Chairman
Computer Center
Oregon State University
Corvallis, Oregon 97330
Tel: [phone]
Mr. Peter F. Carpenter
Center for Materials Research
Stanford. University
Stanford, California 94305
Tel: [phone] ext 4118
Dr. Albert C. Hall
Vice President
Martin Co.
Friendship Aprt, Maryland
21240
Tel: [phone] ext 248
Mr. Kenneth McVicar
MITRE Corp.
Bedford, Mass. 01730
Tel: [phone]
Dr. William R. Rambo
Director
Stanford Electronics Lab.
Stanford University
Stanford, California 94305
Tel: [phone]
Mr.. Kenneth E. BeLieu
Ryan Aeronautical
1707 K. Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20006
Tel: [phone]
Dr. Eugene G. Fubini
Vice President
International Business Machines
Corp., Route 22
Armonk, New York 10504
Tel: [phone]
Mr. Marlin Kroger
Vice President
Autonetics, NAR, Inc.
Anaheim, California 92805
Tel: [phone]
Dr. John M. Myers
c/o Dr.. John L. McLucas
President, MITRE Corp.
Bedford, Mass. 01730
Tel: [phone]
Dr. Leonard Sheingold
MITRE Corp.
Bedford, Mass. 01730
Tel: [phone]
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ODDR&E ..
Mr. John M. Porter Col. Marcus Favors, USAF
ODDR&E (IREW) ODDR&E (OT&E)
Room 3E 119, Pentagon Room 3E 1019, Pentagon
Washington,.D.C. 20330 .Washington, D.C. 20330
Tel: [phone] . Tel: [phone]
OASD/SA
Mr. Pierre. M. Sprey
OASD/SA
Room 2C 270, Pentagon
Washington,, D.C. 20330
Tel: [phone]
CIA
Dr. Lloyd Lauderdale
Room 6E60
.Central Intelligence Agency
Langley, Virginia
Tel:
Col. A. J. Angel, USAF
OJCS (J-6)
Room 1C 761, Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20330
Air Force
Col. Joseph H. Wack, USAF Mr. Richard Camp
Hq USAF (AFXOTW) Hq USAF (AFGOA)
Room.5C 328, Pentagon Room 5C 269, Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20330 Washington, D.C. 20330
Tel: [phone] Tel: [phone]
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Mr. Stuart L. Stauss
Admin Secretary
Hq USAF (AFXOWW)
Room 5C 328, Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20330
Tel_: [phone]
L/Col George Lester, USAF
Hq USAF (AFRDRE)
Room 5E 1085, Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20330
Tel: [phone]
Navy
RADM M. D. Carmody, USN
CNO OP-35
Room 4C 469, Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20330
Tel: [phone].
Capt. Chantee Lewis, USN
OPNAV-352C
Room 4D 525, Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20330
Tel: [phone]
Capt. Donald Lindburg, USN
-Naval Air Development Center
Philadelphia, Penn. 18974
Tel: [phone] ext 2454
USAF Academy
Maj. Robert Burton, USAF
Director of Faculty Research
U.S. Air Force Academy
Colorado Springs, Colo. 80840
Tel:
USAFSS
Maj. James Vance, USAF
AFSCC (SCL)
Kelly AFB, Texas
Tel:
Maj. Bruce.Dolan, USAF
Hq AFSC (SCLAT)
Andrews AFB, Maryland 20331
Tel:
Mr. Lynwood Cosby
Naval Research Lab.
Code 5650 Washington, D.C. 20390
Tel:
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FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD COMBINED TASK FORCE ON PENETRATION AND EW
SUB-GROUP ON EFFECTIVENESS EVALUATION
Members
Mr. Kenneth E. BeLieu, Ryan Aeronautical
Mr. Peter F. Carpenter, Stanford University
Dr. Eugene G. Fubini, IBM Corp.
Dr. Albert C. Hall, Martin Co.
Dr. Larry C. Hunter, Chairman, Oregon State University
Mr. Marlin Kroger, Autonetics, NAR, Inc.
Mr. Kenneth McVicar, MITRE Corp.
Dr. John M. Myers, MITRE Corp.
Dr. William R. Rambo, Stanford Electronics Lab.
Mr. Stuart L. Stauss, Admin. Secretary, Hq Air Force
Contributing Members
Col. A. J. Angel, USAF, JCS
Maj. Robert Burton, USAF, USAF Academy
Mr. Richard Camp, USAF
. .
RADM. M. D. Carmody,-USN
Mr. Lynwood Cosby, USN
Maj.. Bruce Dolan, AFSC
Col. Marcus Favors, USAF, DDR&E
Dr. Lloyd Lauderdale,. CIA
L/C George Lester, USAF
Capt. Chantee Lewis, USN
Capt. Donald Lindburg, USN, NADC
Mr. John M. Porter, DDR&E
Mr. Pierre M. Sprey, OASD/SA
Maj. James Vance, USAF, USAFSS
Col. Joseph H. Wack, USAF
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
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