MODELING AND SIMULATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP71R00510A000300180039-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2004
• Sequence Number: 39
• Publication Date: March 21, 1968
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Release 2005/OSECR DP71 R0051 0A000300180939-2
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MODELING AND SIMULATION
ACTION COMPONENT(S):
OCS, NIPE,. OSI
USER COMPONENT(S):
OSI, OSR, NIPE, OSA, OSP
OBJECTIVES:
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21 MAR x968
The objective of this project is to provide ADP support in simu-
lating environments of interest to intelligence analysts or mission
planners using a mathematical model to represent the parameters
being studied. The availability of such models provides an additional
problem solving tool and assists the analyst in understanding com-
plex situations. Three modeling activities are discussed below:
air defense systems analysis
a strategic arsenal exchange model
-- an econometric model.
Air Defense Systems. Simulation models of various levels of
sophistication are available to assist in developing mission planning
tools and aids for air defense analysis. One simulation model soon
to undergo tests determines the probability that a high altitude
reconnaissance vehicle penetrating denied territory will survive at-
tacks by the hostile air defense system. The model will consider
various types of vehicles and environments, alternate routes, and
penetrator electronic countermeasures to increase the probability of
survival. Another technique is to simulate electronic countermeasure
devices on aircraft as an aid in antenna design. Through studies of'
trajectories of air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles in an attack
configuration, including determination of point's of closest approach,
evasive tactics can be programmed for guidance systems. Missile
simulation models are also being developed 'to determine trajectories
from data which describes the missile characteristics and initial
launch conditions.
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Strategic Arsenal Exchange, Model. This activity encompasses
the development and exploitation o t a two-sided strategic exchange
.model. It provides a "war gaming" capability with a flexibility to
include factors for relative uncertainty with respect to force struc-
turing, various scenario options,' and budgetary constraints.. Several
cases have been 'run against this model and analyzed. There are plans
to develop new routines within the existing model framework.
Econometric Model. An econometric model of Soviet planning
has been formulated to simulate the input and output of various sectors
of production in the Soviet economy,., The model has been formulated'
to be. solved with linear programming techniques.
CHRONOLOGY:
Initiated: FY-66
Operational: FY-67
Operational Evaluation: Various
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