PRESS REPORTS ON DR. FOSTER'S TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE DEFENSE APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP73B00296R000100040023-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 30, 2001
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: August 31, 1971
• Content Type: MF

ApprovecFor Release'2001NIA-RDP73$0029,6R00010004 01'3-2
31 August 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
SUBJECT Press Reports on Dr. Foster's
Testimony Before the House Defense
Appropriations Subcommittee
1. UPI and AP items dated 27 August report on
testimony given by John S. Foster, Jr., DDR&E, before
the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee in
closed door session on 1 June. We have not yet seen
a complete transcript of the closed door testimony,
but we do have a copy of the unclassified version.
His message to the Subcommittee was essentially the
same as the central theme of the public relations
campaign that he has been conducting for the past
several months, and it relies heavily on OSR esti-
mates.
2. The press reports cite -:he following major
points in Dr. Foster's testimony:
--The USSR is now spending about $3 billion
more on military research than is the US, and,
that this figure could be off 20 percent at
most.
--Intelligence analysis indicates that
total Soviet R&D effort has not only continued
to increase but has shifted in recent years
from space to military technology.
--The larger Soviet effort will almost
certainly produce some very serious military
surprise in the next two or three years and
lead to overall technological superiority by
the second half of the decade.
R E. Oil ET
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3. There'is roughly a $3 billion difference
(in constant price terms) between our estimate of
the dollar equivalent of Soviet military R&D spend-
ing in 1971 and the Pentagon figure for DoD plus
AEC spending for R&D in FY 1972. The recent GAO
study conducted for Senator McIntyre,. however, in-
dicates that there currently may be as much as a
billion dollar understatement of military-related
R&D spending in the US statistics. We are now re-
viewing the GAO study in detail. It probably will
not solve all of the problems, but it already has
increased our understanding of the definitional
comparability of our estimates and the US data.
4. In the AP account of'Dr. Foster's testi-
.mony, the statement is made that "He (Dr. Foster)
did not say how the Pentagon got the $3 billion
figure, but said it could be off 20 percent at
most, for a range of $2.4 billion to $3.6 billion."
It is not clear from this whether Dr. Foster or the
reporter applied the 20 percent range of error in-
correctly to the $3 billion gap--implying a range
in our estimate of total Soviet military R&D spend-
ing of only 5 percent. The 20 percent properly
revers LV our LV L0..L V1 0.1..JVUL Y11 1J1_L_L _L _L 1j -L
military R&D in 1971--which would mean a gap of
from about $1 billion to $5 billion between the US
and USSR if US military R&D spending in FY 1972
=turns out to be close to the $7.8 billion Dr. Foster
has requested. In our review of Dr..Foster's testi-
mony, we find he uses the $3 billion gap and the.20
percent range of error in close proximity, but does
not actually relate the two and does not convert
the gap into a dollar range.
5. Dr. Foster's reported description of the
trends in Soviet military R&D and space spending--
both for the total and for the space and military.
R&D components--is a generaliy accurate reflection
of our estimates. The AP release indicates that
Dr. Foster was pressed by the.-Subcommittee for'more
details about the "intelligence analysis" behind
the estimates of Soviet spending, but that he evaded
a direct answer.
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6. Dr. Foster's'conclusion that levels of
effort (spending)'can be linked on a directly pro-
portional basis with levels of technological cap-
ability is based on a combination of our expenditure
estimates and a variety of "net technical assessments"
performed for or by DDR&E. We have told him we con-
sider this to be indefensible, but he continues to
make the assertion.
BRUCE C. CLARKE, Jr.
. Director
Strategic Research
% PET
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Attached for your Back-
ground use only" is a copy of
the memorandum Mr. Clarke
sent to Dr. Proctor concern-
ing Dr. Foster's House testi-
mony.
1 September
(DATE)
NO. REPLACES FORM 10-101
F1ORM AUG N54IO I WHICH MAY BE USED.
25X1A
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Date: ___._97
Item: No. 3
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''vii~i ar ii i. vtf u W i. VI t'rvai+uw v LL'4JLJ.LViY ALi'IUS1 FOUR YEARS A~1U LU Ui'1'O}J
01l _-OF. _ H.E RACE TO THE MOON, THE PENTAGON'S RESEARCH CHIEF BELIEVES.
DR. JOHN S. FOSTER SAID IN TESTIMONY RELEASED TODAY BY THE HOUSE
APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE THAT IN 1967 OR 1968 THE SOVIET UNION
STOPPED A RAPID EXPANSION OF ITS SPACE EFFORT WHICH HAD KEPT
RUSSIAN MILITARY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SPENDING LEVEL FOR ALMOST
SEVEN YEARS. -
SINCE THEN, FOSTER SAID, THE RUSSIANS HAVE CHANNELED MUCH OF THIS
MONEY INTO A GROWING MILITARY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM. HE
ESTIMATED THE SOVIET UNION NOW HAS A RESEARCH EFFORT 40 TO 50 PER CENT'
LARGER THAN THAT OF THE U.S., COSTING ABOUT $3 BILLION A YEAR MORE
THAN THE U.S. IS SPENDING.
FOSTER TOLD REP. GEORGE H. MAHON, D-TEX.,\CHAI_RMAN OF THE DEFENSE
APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL AT--THIS-TIME--
WHAT THE INCREASED RUSSIAN RESEARCH EFFORT IS DIRECTED TOWARD.
BUT WITHIN TWO OR THREE YEARS, HE SAID, "THIS EXTRA EFFORT ON THEIR
PART 14ILL LEAD.ALMOST CERTAINLY TO SOME VERY SERIOUS MILITARY
SURPRISES IF THIS ANALYSIS IS CORRECT.
"THERE IS VERY LITTLE WE CAN DO TO PREVENT THOSE SURPRISES. THIS..
MEANS THAT, WITH A GROWING EFFORT IN THE SOVIET MILITARY AREA, THEY
WILL ATTAIN TECHNOLOGICAL SUPERIORITY IN AREA AFTER AREA ON WHICH
THEY CHOOSE TO CONCENTRATE. AND IN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS DECADE
THEY WILL PROBABLY BE TECHNOLOGICALLY SUPERIOR ACROSS THE BOARD, IN
THE SAME SENSE THAT WE ARE TODAY TECHNOLOGICALLY SUPERIOR ACROSS THE
WASHINGTON--RUSSIA WILL PROBABLY GAIN AN ACROSS-THE-BOARD
fE RUOLOGICAL'SUPERIORITY OVER THE U.S. MILITARY IN THE LAST HALF OF
8/ 2 7-- G E 9 O 5 A
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