PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL SYSTEM PROGRESS REPORT #2

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: NGA Records (Formerly NIMA)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP73T00325R000100040004-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 102
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: August 1, 1966
• Content Type: REPORT

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PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL SYSTEM
PROGRESS REPORT ~~2 =
(Planning Document)
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PRODUCTION Mr'11VP.G?~'_~`..:L\' AND .:~: h i _t~.~~ . `.'.STEM
PROGRESS ~?.=:`POb ~ ;r

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Prepared bq
'CONTRACTOR PROMACS TEAM

4 ,
, ~~, 1 August 1966
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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� � I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY .
' A. Background
~ B. Purpose
� C. Organization
' .. ~ +` D. Su~rnnary
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� II. PROMACS - OPERATIONAL CONCEPT
.~ ~. . A. PROMACS and a Total Management Information System

, B. Operational Concept of an Overall PROMACS
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I` III.' PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR 2,N OVERAhT_.: PROMACS
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A. Long-Range Development of PnOMACS Oojectives
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B. Short-Range PROMACS System ?:esigr, ,and ~. ~lysis Activities
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C. PROMACS Equipment Requirements

i IV. . PRELIMINARY DESIGN DESCRIPTION FOR PROMACS OBJECTIVES

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~ A. PROMACS Data Base
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�B. Ir.. grated Status Repor L.ittg System (ISRS)
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~� , ,C. C ,ter Assisted Programming and Scheduling
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D. S alation Model
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i ~ V : C~ NCL!. . !~?S AND RECOMMENDATIONS r
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A. - Conclusions
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. i~ ).~ � ;mmendations
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, c .ant 'ROMACS Data Element_~ i ~
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OF FIGURES
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' FIGURE I-l, P ROMACS MAJOR MILESTONES (LONG RANGE) 7
FIGURE I-2, P LANNED ACTIVITY (SHORT RANGE) ~ 10
~~. FIGURE II-1, TOTAL INTEGRATED ACIC MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM 25
' ~, FIGURE II-2, INTERRELATIONSHIP OF PROMACS OBJECTIVES 29
' FIGURE III-1, PROMACS SUMMARY PERT 33
FIGURE III-2, DATA MATRICES FOR DETERMINING MANAGEMENT INFORMATION
NEEDED AT SUCCESSIVELY HIGHER LEVELS OF MANAGEMENT 36
FIGURE III-3, PROMACS DETAIL-PERT 39 ,
FIGURE IV-1, INTEGRATED STATUS REPORTING SYSTEM INFORMATION FLOW 54
FIGURE IV-2, WEEKLY STATUS REPORT FORMULATION 63
FIGURE IV-3, PROGRAM ANALYSIS REPORT FORMULATION DIA 70-15 REPORTING . 65
' FIGURE IV-4, COMPUTER A~�SISTED PROGRAMMING CYCLE (ACODA) 71
FIGURE IV-5, COMPUTER ASSISTED PROGRAMMING%PRE-SCHEDULING CYCLE 73
FIGURE IV-6, COMPUTER ASSISTED SCHEDULING (ACDB) ~ 75
FIGURE IV-7, RELATIONSHIP OF PROMACS OBJECTIVES FOR COMPUTER
. ASSISTED PROGRAMMING AND SCHEDULING 77
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I, INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
This first section is intended to serve as a condensed version of the total
report. This is accomplished by augmenting the usual introductory material on
background, purpose, and organization with a fairly comprehensive summary of
the report. Thus, this section can be used to glean the key points of the total
report prior to complete perusal of the report; it can also be read in lieu
of the total report by individuals who have no need to delve into the details
contained in subsequent sections.
A. Back round
1. Original Concept of PROMACS _
On 24 January 1966, a joint ACIC/Contractor group began data collection
and analysis efforts to determine the requirements for a computer-assisted
PROMACS for ACIC. In the earliest stages PROMACS was conceived a:: a management
too'!. to be �ased essentially by the Production and Distribution Pls:t�~ for "
pre.._~tion planning, scheduling, and controlling activities in support of
cha:-_ prod :action goals in any given year.
.%. 'expanded Concept of PROMACS
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_.. The joint ACIC/Contractor study group published its first PROMACS
progress report on 14 April 1966. This report and formal briefings on their
findings were reviewed by ACIC during May 1966. From the report ar.,:. the briefings
it became obvious that PROMACS had been expanded to include all ACIC elements
which actively influenced or required production programmY�zg, scheduling, and
status data from AC IC's primary mission fu~-ctional area. As a result, the group
recc,n~mended the development of a broadly based PROMACS to achieve four major
o~�ectives:
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(1) Integrated Production Status Reporting System
~' (2) Production P13nning Fa~tors Data Base
(3) Computer Assisted Production Scheduling Model
`'� (4) Production Cycle Simulation Model
;; b. ACIC generally concurred with these findings and the recommendation
'~
'~ that first priority be given to the development of an Integrated Status Reporting
System. However,. ACIC also felt that prior to detailed PROMACS design and
development there was a need for a clearer indication of the interrelationships
of all PROMACS objectives, a more comprehensive description of the proposed
objectives, and a time-phased development plan for .achieving these objectives.
Accordingly, in June 1966 ACOC directed the group to prepare a planning document
which addressed these needs.
B. Purpose
This report constitutes the required planning document and has three
major purposes:
1. To restate the overall PROMACS operational concept and clarify the
interrelationships between the four basic objectives.
. _. ~o propose the long-range phases of the PROMACS objectives, and the
ACIC contractor group's short-range activities in the initial development of
these objectives.
3. To present preliminary design descriptions of the four PROMACS
objectives.
C. Organization
This document is divided into five sections:
1. An introduction and summary which provides an overview. of the document's
key' points.
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2. t'-_ redefinition of the overall PROMACS concept predicated~on the
restricted. scope of PROMACS within the context of a total ACIC Management
Infor:natioz System.
3. A description of the proposed time-phased development activities of
the PP.OMACS concept. ~ ,
4. A fairly detailed, but preliminary design description for each of the
four PROMACS objectives. ~ .
5. A listing of conclusions and recommendations.
D. Summary
This document: 1) presents the scope, and thus the limitations, of ,
PROMACS as presently conceived, 2) shows the logical phases of development to
be ~~ollowed in order to convert concept to reality, and 3) discusses all
� available design aspects considered to date for each PROMACS objective. A
summarization of sections II-IV, which details each of these three areas,
wil' follow. The conclusions and recommendations (section V) will be repeated
verbatim.
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1. PROMACS - Operational Concept
In reviewing reactions to the preliminary operational concept for
PROMACS, it appeared to the ACIC/Contractor group that a strong possibility
existed that PROMACS was being viewed as a total ACIC Management Information
System. In order to place the PROMACS operational concept into proper perspective,
the group decided to first describe the role of PROMACS as one of several
sub-systems in a total ACIC Management Information System. Once this was
accomplished, a restatement of the overall PROMACS operational concept was
pr~nared.
a. PROMACS and a Total ACIC Management Information System
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(1) PROMACS is a prime management tool for the production (primary ,
mission function) area of ACIC. Organizationally its key users are the Directorate
of Operations and the Production and Distribution Plant. It is identified with
the Production sub-system in a conceptualized total ACIC Management Information
System comprised of the following sub-systems:
� . Production ,
Personnel
Material
Accounting
Administration
(2) Because of the nature of AC IC's primary mission function
PROMACS will supply a large, segment of AC IC's management information needs;
� nevertheless, PROMACS is still something less than.a total management information
system. For example, PROMACS can predict a certain skill level shortage which
will impact production, and present the problem to Personnel for resolution.
To properly address the problem, the Personnel - not PROMACS - sub-system
should have detailed information available on such items as: proper recruitment
actions, civil service standards, register listings, most likely source of
applicant:, probable GS rating needed,to attract personnel, availability of
in-hcase training courses, etc. Thus, PROMACS interacts and has data exchange -
with each of the other sub-systems. However, resolution of problems within a
functional sub-system area must be resolved by the sub-system managers on the
basi of function-oriented data available to them through their sub-system -
not 'ROMACS. This concept does not exclude the feasibility of a master data
base containing data required by each of the five sub-systems. By use of a
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master data base duplication of basic data usable by all sub-systems would
be minimized or eliminated.
b. Operational Concept of an Overall PROMACS
(1) The four basic objectives recommended-for achieving PROMACS
are essentially unchanged and designated as follows:,
PROMACS Data Base
Integrated Status Reporting System (ISRS)
Computer Assisted~Programming/Scheduling (CAPS) Model
Simulation Model
(2) At that point in time where all objectives of PROMACS have
been achieved, the sequence of operations in a typical PROMACS cycle would
generally be as follows:
ACIC management, programming and production analysts
query the Simulation Model for optimum alternatives in allocating resources to
meet the year's production goals or unprogrammed assignments.
. The Simulation Model produces mathematically optimum
alternatives based on total available resources and requirements information drawn
from the PROMACS Data Base.
ACIC management applies human judgment factors to the
mathe_~atically derived alternatives to account for institutional and personnel
consideraticr_s. These factors establish the parameters which are input as
constraints to the CAPS Model.
The CAPS Model. accepts the parameters, and draws from
production and resources information in the data base to output production programs
and schedules. The data base is automatically updated with the new programs and
schedules in order to support the ISRS. ~ '.
� In support of the ISRS the PROMACS Data Base furnishes
the information for computer generation of recurring status reports. It also

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furnishes accurate, timely, and complete data at various levels of summarization
in order to assist the ISRS in responding to special queries.
(3) Thus, the overall PROMACS will meet AC IC's production
management requirements of providing:.
Integrated, stratified production status reports.
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Computer assistance to the programming and scheduling
functions.
Computer assistance to determine alternatives for '
' optimizing allocation of resources to programmed and unprogrammed assignments.
2. Proposed Development Plan for PROMACS
The proposed development plan for PROMACS is presented ir. text and
PERT chart form in section III for both the long-range development (to COC)
and the short-range activities (to 1 December 1966). For purposes of this
summary the PERT charts have been generalized to show significant milestones
in Gantt chart form (Figure I-1 and I-2). In addition there is a brief discussion
on PROMACS computer equipment requirements.
a. Long Range Development of PROMACS Objectives
a
(1) PROMACS Data Base
The data base will be developed in three major phases as
follows:
Phase I -Contains information required to support selected
~`' production status reports in support of the first phase of the ISRS.
Phase II - Expanded to support additional ISRS requirements,
and the first phase of the CAPS Model which will match gross resources against
requiremen~cs., .
� Phase III - At COC the data base will be supporting a
greater variety of status reports internal and external to AC IC. It will also
support the second phase of the CAPS model and the first phase of a preliminary
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PROMACS MAJOR MILESTONES (LONG P,ANGE)
GY 1966 CY 19ti7 CY 1968 CY 1969

MILESTONE'S A D J
G J
T J A UJ
R J A
A P J G
U
C N L N R
L N R N
DATA BASE
Data Base File Design POST COC

Phase I - Data for Initial ISRS COC

Phase II - Data for Status Reporting
and Scheduling a
Phase III --Data for Status Sched.
& Simulation ~
Phase IV - Data for On-Line Capability 0
ISRS .
Phase I - Initial Status Reporting
Phase II - Expanded Status Reporting v ! g
Phase III - Status Reporting for All Levels _. � ~
Phase IV - On-Line Capability a
CAPS
Phase I - Matching Gross Requirements vs.
Resources -~
Phase II - Detailed Sched. & Loading ~ ~
Phase III - On-Line Capability ~
SIMULATION MODEL
-Phase I - Initial Model ~ ~ L O
Phase II - On-Line Capability ~~ ~
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS & DEVELOPMENT PLAN
F7GIIRE 7 - 1
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� Simulation Model. Data will be structured along chart process lines so that
' programming, scheduling, and simulation activities can be investigated for
end item products, using all or varying combinations of the charting processes.
(2) Integrated Status�Reporting System
The ISRS will be developed in four major phases as follows:
Phase I - Maximum use will be made of the computer for
production of reports on status of jobs in work and completions.
Phase II - Additional users will be serviced at~this point
with reports on performance of personnel, and utilization of equipment and
material in addition to job status reports.
Phase III-1 - Status reporting can now be accomplished on
a process as well as end item basis. This will permit automatic reporting at
� more definitive and meaningful points in the production cycle to a greater
variety of users.
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Phase III-2 - Status reporting data will be automatically
' updated by programming and scheduling changes incorporated into the data base
i by the second phase of the CAPS Model. Furthermore, all normal recurring textual
status reports will be computer generated, and special query status reports can
be more easily collated with computer assistance. .
y, (3) Computer Assisted Programming and Scheduling Model
`' ~ The CAPS Model will be developed in two major phases as
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'^ Phase I - Primarily useful as a planning instrument. Major
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outputs will be gross listings of alternatives in which resources may be matched
against requirements, both .for the current year and the seven year period of
� the Consolidated Intelligence~Program (CIP).
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Phase II - A sophisticated representation of AC IC's programming
and scheduling procedures. The model will draw from data formulated on chart
processes tc program and schedule the allocation of resources on the basis .of
human input constraints defining priorities, time, specific resources, etc.
(4) Simulation Model
The first phase of a preliminary simulation model will be
able to generate optimum alternatives to resource allocation problems on the
basis of total requirements and available resources. Only quantifiable constraints
can be imposed, thus creating the greater flexibility to present management with
more choices to which human factors judgments may be applied for determining
the final course of action chosen.
b. Short Range System Design and Analysis Activities
�
Planned short range activities call for division of the group
efforts into the two primary areas of: 1).defining the data elements in the
PROMACS data base in order to begin implementation of the IS RS, and 2) refining
the analysis of the overall PROMACS operational requirements and functional
description. The milestones depicted in Figure I-2 or the PERT chart (Fig. III-3) in
section III form adequate descriptors'of the detailed activities planned.
c. Equipment Requirements
(1) Current Needs and Status - The AC IC calendar year 1966 CIP
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specifies remote communication stations and data collection devices for the
use of PROMACS starting in FY 67. Although this equipment will be needed, it
is not required as early as stated in the CIP. The data gathering devices
will be required in FY 68. The remote communication stations should be available
by F~' 70.
(2) Anticipated Equipment Characteristics - The initial phase
of PROMACS will use a RCA 501 computer, card to tape batch processing, and a
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PT.ANNF.T) AC;TTVTTY (SHIRT RAN(;R1
AR Y EAR 1966
ACTIVITY ~ AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
I. INTEGRATED STATUS REPORTING SYSTEM/DATA BASE
A. Design
1. Revieca existing Systems & Requirements
2. Define System Formats & Procedures ~ -
3. ACIC/PRC Mgmt. Review & Concurrence
4. Phase I ISRS Design - ~
B. Equipment
1. Define Equipment Requirements
2. ACIC Review & Concurrence ~ - ~ -
C. Software Program -
1. Define Programming Requirements
2. Finalize Write-Ups & Assign _
ACIC Programmers
3. Assign Contractor Programming Support
D. D ata Base (Data Requirements)
1. Define Data Elements & Storage Requirements
2. Complete Phase I File Design --~
II. SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT PLAN
A. Preliminary Design
B. Draft Report
C. ACIC Review & Concurrence
D. Analysis Documentation (SA & DP)
FIGURE I - 2
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a. PROMACS Data Base
(1) The PROMACS Data Base will be a.comprehensive collection of
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sequential access data base. This configuration will be used to produce the
early status reports, but its utility for the total PROMACS is limited. In
order to realize the full potential. of PROMACS, a real time, on-line system is
anticipated. Such a system will utilize a computer with time-sharing capability,
a random access mass storage device, remote communication stations, and on-line
input/output capability. This system will be able to interrupt a process,
respond to a query, and then continue with ,the original processing. Random
access mass storage will allow the accessibility of data that will be required.
for the PRONIACS objectives. Man to computer communications from remote stations
will allow the full use of the computer and the data base for programming and
scheduling, and for determining the effect of proposed solutions to a production
problem.
~. Preliminary Design Description for PROMACS Objectives
This section provides as much detail as is currently available ter . ~'~,:,
design characteristics for each of the four PROMACS objectives. The information
essentially furnished on each objective is a general description, an analysis of
the input/output data elements, the manner in which the data is manipulated, and
the relationship of a given objective to the other PROMACS objectives.
management information ultimately stored on a random access magnetic storage
device and operated on by a computer. The data base will be one set of co-
ordinated files in which minimum or no duplication of basic data exists. It
will be a store of up-to-date, accessible, unit data comprehensive enough to
serve as the base for preparation of any required primary mission function
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� information or report. Thus, it will serve as the nucleus of the PROMACS in
direct support of the ISRS, and CAPS and Simulation Models.
(2) Historical and in-process information on individual jobs
will be carried by the data base until the job is completed. At the end of
a fiscal year, the entire data base will be printed out for permanent record
purposes.
(3) The PROMACS data base can also serve the secondary purpose
of furnishing varied format outputs of its contents to those offices not
directly concerned with production but able to use aspects of the production
data in support of their assigned functions. Thus the PROMACS data base could
be the origin of a total management information system data base ._ To accomplish
this, the basic units of data will be structured in a manner that is not directed
� towards the requirements of any particular organizational function or report.
(4) The data base will be divided into two major categories with
four prime elements of data in each category as follows:
Production Category Resources Category
Planned Production Personnel
Production Status ~ Materiel
�
Process Definitions Equipment
Production Standards Contract
(5) The main function of the data base will be to provide
data for status reports, computer programming and scheduling, simulation
aczi.vities, and answers to special queries bearing on accomplishment of primary
mission objectives. However, because of the large amount of data necessary to
support PROMACS, this data base could serve as the foundation for a master,
data base servicing the total AC IC management information system conceptualized
in section II.
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� b. Integrated Status Reporting System
(1) The ISRS will be a management tool utilizing an .Electronic
Data Processing System to provide all levels of ACIC management with pertinent
data to assist them in planning, schedu-ling, and controlling the production
effort. The reporting system will be oriented to the evaluation of production
status and performance. The goal of the reporting procedures will be to provide
management with quick access to reliable information for timely decision and
dynamic control actions. Therefore, the reporting system will be designed to
provide status information on the basis of one week's normal cycle reporting
span. In addition special high priority reports on weekly activities will be
available in a few hours. _
(2) The concept of integrated status reporting does not visualize
� a rigid reporting format for all organizational elements. Although some degree
of standarization will be possible for common data, individual reports will be
flexible and structured to present significant facts and useful information on �
which management officials can act quickly. To this end, the reports will
contain, among other things, job status, manpower, equipment, material resource,
contract, and performance data. Production performance and related information
will be summarized against individual line item numbers as contained in Format
Six of the Consolidated Intelligence Program (CIP).
(3) In general, ACIC management personnel have a requirement
for timely information of three principal types for planning, scheduling and
controlling production as follows:
Long range programs and requirements - This type of
information is required by upper management levels at ACIC to maintain an aware-
� ness of those factors which could affect future operations of ACIC.
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. Assignments in the production process - Information in
this category is of high value to the Production and Distribution Plant for
scheduling and controlling items in work.
Assignments produced - This category of information is
needed to permit analysis of production accomplishment at periodic intervals
to determine schedule slippages and identify potential and actual problem areas.
~; (4) Data input requirements in support of the ISRS center on
utilization of personnel, material, equipment, and contract activities as
~: related to a specific job. The type of information generally required will be
~~
that contained on current daily labor cards, material cost cards, equipment
utilization cards, and contractor activities. With this type of. minimum input
data, many varied output report formats can be devised. This input/output
� relationship between ISRS data elements is reflected in the table forming
Attachment 1.
(S) A representative listing of the types of reports which can
' be produced by the ISRS in its early development phases is as follows:
' ~ Job Status
Completion
Program Analysis
Resource Utilization
Manning Status
Quality Control
(6) A standardized coding system will be used to provide systematic
integration of reports for various levels of AC IC and external management. The
coding system will include, but not be limited to such items.as:
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�' Line item codes .
� Specific assignment numbers
Job identification numbers
Skill designators
.Function designators
Specific operation codes
Quality control codes -
Resource accountability codes
Cost center codes
. Direct material cost codes
Others
c. Computer Assisted Programming and Scheduling
(1) Computer assisted programming and scheduling is a technique
� whereby the large memory and the rapid, accurate computational capabilities of
a computer are combined with the experience and judgement capabilities of
technical personnel to perform programming and scheduling functions. The
general pattern in computer-assisted programming and scheduling can be divided
into the following ste;~s.
.Problem definition
Input to the computer
Computer processing
. Data output from the computer
Data analysis
Use~of simulation model (optional)
' Programming/Schedu~ing action
' . Updating the data base
Reiteration of previous steps (as required)
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� (2) Computer assisted programming and scheduling will utilize
information contained in the following elements of the PROMACS data base:
.Material status Process definition
Manpower status Production standards
Equipment status Production
Contract status Planned Production
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' (3) The computer software package will be designed to produce
data useful in the preparation of Format Six to the CIP, Allocation of Resources
' and Production Commitments Document, Production Plans, and Production Schedules
~ geared to various organizational and functional levels. This will require job
inputs showing:
~ Complete job identification number.
` Type of job and degree. of difficulty.
. r
'r' Time period requirements.
~~ (4) -For each job input processed, summary listing outputs will
a
t ir_clude such factors as:
Total resources used in each selected time period.
~~ Totals for each~of the CIP seven year time periods.
Projection of the status of each resource pool, based
',
' on the status as of a given starting date.
Grouping of resources projected to be used by each
~'
~` Division for each time period. �
. .Grouping of resources used for each program for selected
time intervals.
Listing of each job in order of start time grouped by
� branch and section.
Exception reports which will pinpoint jobs and time
periods in which there is a conflict between resources scheduled and resources
available.' _
d~
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d. Simulation Model
(1) An ACIC Simulation Model will be a dynamic, mathematical
�
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(5) Typically the PROMACS will support computer-assisted
programming and scheduling in a four-step sequence. The first step is the
analysis of the available data provided by the ISRS. The second step is the
job definition manual input. The computer-assisted programming and scheduling
software package, utilizing the data base, will provide a preliminary schedule
and pertinent summary data on resource status versus requirements. During the
third step the analyst will evaluate this data. If conflicts exist he may
elect to utilize the Simulation Model to obtain additional information and
alternatives. The programming and scheduling decisions are then made and the
data base is updated during the fourth step. Thus, the combined utilization of
the CAPS Model supported by the PROMACS Data Base, ISRS, and Simulation Model
forms a powerful tool to aid in the iterative process of allocating resources
to jobs and placing them in the production pipeline. This technique will
liberate programming and production analysts from time-consuming details and
allow them to sharpen their focus and refine their judgments. The currency,
completeness, and accuracy of available information will provide considerable
assistance in making more accurate programming predictions, and more timely
scheduling decisions.
representation of the production cycle that will be used to experimentally solve
"real-life" production problems in an abstract form. The representation will be
operated on by a series of mathematical techniques and procedures, such as
linear programming, Monte Carlo theory, and queuing theory, in order to equate
the many variables and constants that will be used in the representation. The
model will be designed so that outside parameters, such as process calendar
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time, can be varied and the effect of their change on the production cycle
can be determined.
(2) In an effort to relate this formal description of the
Simulation Model to day-to-day problems, three possible applications to the ,
ACIC processes of programming, scheduling, and impact analysis are presented
below:
Programming - One example of a programming situation
in which a simulation model would have been helpful was in determining how to
~'l ,
handle the increased JOG program outlined for FY 65. The situation called
for an increase in the number of JOG's over the number previously programmed
~oith minimum impact on other programs, and without a significant increase in
� available personnel. With a fixed amount of manpower and a requirement to increase
the volume of output, the obvious alternative was to increase the use of contract
� dollars. Since all parts of the JOG program could not be contracted, the
problem became one of selecting the best combination of assignments, either in
process or programmed, that could be contracted to .outside companies (staying
within the amount of additional contract funds that were available), thereby,
freeing the personnel needed for the JOG program. This type of programming
involves shifting programs, matching resources with requirements, and analyzing
approaches. A simulation model composed of variations of standard allocation
and queuing operations research models will be a powerful tool in solving this
type of problem.
Scheduling - Use of a model in a scheduling problem
would take a list of defined jobs (defined in terms of priorities and job types)
and investigate the alternatives available in placing these jobs in the existing
� production pipeline. Constraints will also be provided to define the initial
boundary conditions 'of the problem. Examples of, constraints would be, priority

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. of jobs which can and cannot be removed from the pipeline, degree of completion
~ohich would preclude a job from being removed, time period being considered,
assigned completion date, and any other factor which would define the boundary
conditions and restrict the number of possible solutions. The model would
analyze the problem and its limits, and provide a list of solutions which would
meet all the conditions and a listing of exceptions. Ideally, the various
alternatives and their predicted impact would be shown. From this list of
alternatives a solution could be selected. For example, the solution could show
a list of jobs that could be worked in the given time limit with all constraints
applied. There may be many combinations that would meet the boundary conditions,
and the problem definition must set the limit of acceptable'solutions. The
problem may be to find the best order .in which to work jobs with a fixed
amount of manpower in the shortest amount of time. The solution, in effect,
� would establish an optimum schedule. The basic operations research models
pertaining to the scheduling problem are the allocation, queuing, sequencing,
and routing models.
Impact analysis - Probably the most sophisticated
i use of a simulation model wild be in analyzing the impact of unprogrammed and
unscheduled changes on the existing operation. If a new job or a change to an
existing job is contemplated, what effect will it have on the present schedule?
Will some items be dropped? If so, which ones? Should some .schedule items be
extended? What is the best approach so as to minimize the disruptive effect?
i There are many different approaches, depending on which factors are defined as
i being most important. For example, the model could provide an alternative
based on'not bringing in personnel from other divisions. It could provide
alternatives based on using contract dollars, or not using contract dollars, with
all other variables remaining unchanged. The basic operations research models.
' used in this-type of problem are the allocation, queuing, sequencing and routing
models.
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(3) In the ACIC Simulation Model any one or combinations of
the eight basic operations research (OR) models may be useful. A brief descrip-
. lion of the primary use of these OR models follows:
Inventory models help in deciding how much to order,
when to order, how to balance inventory, carrying costs versus set-up costs, etc.
Allocation models assist in choosing among alternatives
�
in performing a task and the best combination of existing resources and facilities ,
to maximize overall effectiveness. Examples include determining optimum use
of facilities, scheduling, and allocation of financial and manpower resources.
This model has the greatest potential use in the ACIC production process.
ueuin models work on "bottleneck" problems. A
queuing problem arises when people or units requiring service arrive at a
service point at which facilities may or may not be available. The problem is
to serve the maximum number of customers with the least number of facilities,
and to prevent idle facilities, inventory, and manpower.
Sequencing models deal with determing in which order
units should be processed to minimize total elapsed service time.
. Routing models deal with defining the optimum sequential
path that must be followed in performing a process.
. Replacement'models deal with replacement schedules for
equipment in order to minimize overall cost without loss in efficiency.
Competition models deal with selecting strategies when
i
people are in conflict.
Search models deal with systematically filing information
V
for maximum ease in retrieval and information flow.
(4) Characteristics and limitations - There are several char-
acteristics that should be emphasized in the application of simulation model
problem solutions:
d ~1
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i
Models should be used~on problems that are recurring
in nature.
4
The problem should provide an opportunity to choose
' between various courses of action.
The problem should have a large number of controlled
variables and a small number of relevant uncontrolled variables.
?. The possibility should exist to evaluate results readily.
The problems should be large and complex as well as
current and pressing.
There are also several limitations that should be kept in mind:
. Simulation models are, at best, only an approximation
of the real situation.
Operations research is usually limited to the study
of tangible and measurable factors. Many intangible and qualitative factors,
such as human behagior and motivation must also be considered in a management
decision. Therefore, human judgment factors must often be applied to transform
' the mathematically optimum solutions into the most acceptable solution from the
institutional and personnel point of view.
Good operations research studies are lengthy ~ complex,
and expensive.
(5) The AC IC production cycle Simulation Model will be useful
as an aid in determining the impact on production of a potential new assignment,
and in allocating resources to meet the production program in the most efficient
manner. It will provide the capability of analyzing alternative solutions to
a production problem through the use of operations research techniques. These
� mathematically optimum alternatives can be modified on the basis of human
judgment factors before inputing the parameters to a CAPS Model which will produce
the programs and schedules reflecting the course of action taken. The importance
� 1
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'E, ~
� of the Simulation Model is that it affords ACIC management the opportunity to
compare the degree of sub-optimization (modification) chosen against the
theoretical optimum generated by the model. Thus, there will be a greater
emphasis on careful determination of the-human factors used, and a correspondingly
stronger justification for the course of action finally taken.
4. Conclusions and Recommendations
a. Conclusions
(1) Within the context of a total ACIC Management Information
System, PROMACS forms the major sub-system conceived to support the ACIC
primary mission function.
(2) PROMACS, as conceived, constitutE:s a feasible,_cohesive,
and necessary management information and control system for the ACIC primary
mission function.
(3) Overall PROMACS development is long-term and evolutionary
in nature.
(4) The PROMACS Data Base could .be eventually expanded into a
master data base supporting a total ACIC Management Information System.
(S) The ISRS can be implemented in the shortest time frame, and
result in improved management knowledge .of job status and performance. This
knowledge will result in more timely corrective action by management to alleviate
identified problem areas.
(6) The CAPS Model will furnish more timely and accurate data
for planning and controlling the allocation of resources to meet ACIC primary
n,i~sion objectives.
(7) The Simulation Model will furnish mathematically optimum
� a'!*..er~?atives for total ACIC resource allocations to meet primary mission objectives.
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� ACIC management can accept these alternatives or choose the best level of sub-
i optimization on the basis of organization, function or personnel considerations.
b. Recommendations
' (1) That ACIC accept the long range development phases presented
by this report for the overall PROMACS.
(2) That ACIC concur in the short range PROMACS analysis and
'k
design activities outlined for the ACIC/Contractor team through 1 December 1966.

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,,

II. PROMACS - OPERATIONAL CONCEPT
The purpose of this section is to describe the scope of the PROMACS
caithin the context of a total ACIC management information system, and to
present an integrated operational concept of the preliminary PROMACS
objectives described in the PROMACS progress report of 14 April 1966.
A. PROMACS and a Total Management Information System
The ultimate goal of an effective management information system is to
keep each manager (supervisor) informed on those activities, developments,
or problems in the total organization which affect his decision-making
authority. Optimally, such a system provides accurate, timely data permitting
effective action in the management functions of planning, organizing, directing,
' measuring, and controlling.
The Production and Management Control System (PROMACS) to be described
in this report is but a segment of what is currently defined in management '
and data processing technology as a Management Information System.' Some
authors, in order to emphasize the scope of such a system, use the title,
"Total Integrated Management Information System." As the words imply, such
a system encompasses the total management information needs within an organi-
zation. Because of the nature of AC IC's primary mission function, PROMACS
will supply a large segment of AC IC's management information needs; nevertheless,
PROMACS is still something less than a total management information system.
. Thus, to place~~PROMACS into proper perspective, it is desirable to look at the
'~ relationship of PROMACS in a conceptualized total ACIC Management Information
System. This relationship is portrayed graphically in Figure ]Irl. The significant
i
aspects of this depiction are highlighted below:
�
ii
~}
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~;
,+
0 1
r;
~;
.~
�
~~.
:~
I
L_
TOTAL INTEGRATED ACIC MANAGEMENT
INFORMATION SYSTEM
Figure TI - 1
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/ HEADQUARTERS ACIC \
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� 1. The five functional or sub-systems comprising the total ACIC'
Management Information System envisioned are:
o Production (Operations and Plant)
o Personnel (M & 0 and Personnel)
o Material
o Accounting
o Administration
2. Each sub-system or functional area has its own unique requirements
for acquiring and maintaining operational data in the performance of its
specific responsibilities. The day-to-day operational data will not be an
integral part of the PROMACS data base. For example, PROMACS may identify
a certain skill level- shortage based on planned production schedules. The
Personnel sub-system, by virtue of maintaining detailed data in recruiting
� activities, civil service standards, source of applicants, register listings,
GS ratings, training programs, etc., can react within its functional area
and inform upper management as to what actions must be taken to resolve the
shortage.
3. There is an exchange-of data .by those activities in other sub-systems
which affect management decisions in a given sub-system. For example, the
Production (PROMACS) sub-system will provide information to the Materiel
sub-system on the actual and projected uses of materials.' The Materiel
sub-system could use this information to show current inventory levels and a
projection of levels. .The projection could be reported weekly to show variances
between actual and projected levels, to flag items exceeding pre-determined
allowances, and to maintain .inventory levels in accordance with economic
reorder policies. ~ '
�
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4. All sub-systems feed summary data to ACIC Headquarters or the
.ic~~,�,::�Rt ~~.i :nsna~4mant lcll:encs who assess tlu~ ef:f~ectiveness of total ACIC
performance in meeting mission objectives. The nature and frequency of
management information reports in such a system are tailored to the needs
of the user: detailed status information for lower level management;
monitoring and control information for middle management; status and
performance information for upper level and top management. Reports going
to upper level and top management would normally be of a summary type, based
on management by excep}-ion. These reports would alert management to existing
or potential problem areas requiring corrective action, and avoid burdensome .
statistics on areas which are performing within the tolerance of established
standards.
The system diagrammed in Figure II-1 represents a long-term (5-10 years)
� ~level.opment of a total management information system. The computer hardware
for this type of system exists today. The scope and potential impact of a
total management information system requires careful long-term planning to
assure effective management use and organization integration. It is not the
intent of this report to propose a total ACIC Management Information System.
1\oratheless, the activities and scope of the ACIC production cycle is such that
the development of the proposed PROMACS will constitute the foundation from
which a total ACIC Management Information System could evolve. Consequently,
one of the prime considerations of the PROMACS operational concept and system
deign will be the flexibility of the system in moving towards a total Management
Info~~mation System.
S. Operational Concept of an Overall PROMACS
As a result of the preliminary analysis of the production management cycle
at ACIC, three major requirements of a production management system were
t
f '
I �
i
f
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determined. The system should;

1. Provide integrated, stratified production status reports based on
a one-week reporting cycle and a currency of three days.
2. Provide computer assistance for the programming, scheduling, and
' loading of assignments.
3. Provide computer-assisted operations research techniques that will
aid in selecting the best alternative for allocating resources to programmed
assignments and for determining the impact of unprogrammed, unscheduled
assignments on production goals.
To meet these requirements, the PROMACS will consist of a centralized
Data Tiase, an Integrated Status Reporting System (ISRS), a Computer-Assisted
Programming/Scheduling model, and a production cycle Simulation model.
Figure II-2 represents a fully developed PROMACS, showing the interrelationship
�
of the four objectives listed above.
follows: ~
A brief discussion of the interrelationship
The data base will serve as a central master file that will store and
make available machinable data to the other parts of PROMACS. Basic data will
be input to the data base by means of an electronic data gathering device.
This basic data will include, but not be limited to the type. of information
presently contained on the daily labor card, material usage card, and equipment
utilization card. In addition, production schedules, process definitions,
n
U
personnel information, contract information, chart accountability, distribution,
and inventory information will be stored in the data base. The responsible
offices will update the data as required. Although the primary purpose of
this master file will ?~.e to provide information for the other three PROMACS
objectives, the information contained here will be available, as required, to
all sub-systems in the total ACIC management information system.
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PROMACS DATA BASE
< ~~~
~ Spa i .
~'Y~ ~
. oa~,c / ,SD Z
a /
U
O
'~
'~
a~ I
G
~ Integrated C
I A
I Status Pr
Reporting Sc
1
. ~
0
~o \ Status
'~,~ ~ Reports
~~
RE\URCE:
11' ~' ---
a~erjal
I'roc
ess
- --- . ` De~1n .
~ ~ jr o
' D 7'~:: ~ n.s
~ ~
o.
.~
~�
N
p'
,~
i 1
a
N
:er Simulation
.ed ~ I
nming
i
Ling Model
~.
rams ~ ~~`~
Alternatives ,~
vo
hedules /
.~~~.~-/
~~ ~e~~
INTERRELATIONSHIP OF PROMACS OBJECTIVES
FIGURE II - 2
t

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i
s
~;
~,,
i
i
~`
�
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The ISRS will be a management tool utilizing an Electronic Data
T'rocessi.ng System to provide all levels of ACIC management with pertinent
data to as::i.st them in planning, scheduling, and contr.oll,i.ng the production
eEforc. '.Cite lt~tlnlatL` goal of this objective is computer generation of all
recurring textual status reports, both within and external to ACIC. Infor-
mation needed to prepare all reports will be drawn from the data base.
The Computer-Assisted Programming and Scheduling model will provide
machine assistance to the functions of programming, scheduling, and loading
of production assignments. Input data on job identification number, chart
difficulty parameters, desired completion date, etc., and information stored
in the data base on production status, resource availability, and process
definitions will permit the prediction of resource .requirements,~production
calendar times,; and completion dates. In addition, the model will be able
to load a new assignment into the production pipeline by determining when the.
needed resources will be available. New schedules generated by this model
will be used to update the production status section of the data base.
The Simulation model will be a mathematical representation of the
C~
production cycle used as an aid in: (1) determining the impact of a potential
new assignment, and (2).allocating resources to meet the production program in
the most efficient manner. It will provide the capability of analyzing alternative
solutions to a production problem through the use of operations research
techniques which will mold the many variables and constants into a realistic
representation of the programming and scheduling processes. Production .status
and resource availability information from the data base will be needed to
evaluate some of the variables to be used in the model.
01
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� In an advanced form the overall PROMACS will provide status reports
current enouh and .frequent t~nott~;li t~~ aicl in ~