NEWSPAPER ARTICLES RE: VIETNAM

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CIA-RDP74B00415R000300200015-7
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RIFPUB
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K
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6
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December 9, 2016
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August 18, 2001
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15
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Publication Date: 
May 11, 1972
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NSPR
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ppfr~vec~1~- Release 2001/08/28}2,IA-RDF~f1.5f~g0300200015-7 PACTr, 'U. S. Inteigence Was Surprisea By Enemy's Drive, Aides Assert By l IJAMI1 WELLES sveeial'to i. New York Tfines WASHINGTON, M*.: 10- Evidence has er e llgre that United States inte r-' rec ion, timing and j!j~gstve in Sou Vietnam. . The National Security Coun- cil's Intelligence Committee, headed by Henry A. Kissinger; President Nixon's national secu- rity' adviser, reportedly con- cluded that the main enemy thrust would come from west to east against Kontum in the Central Highlands and not, as happened, from north to south across the demilitarized zone to Quangtri. ems `,_ iai~iere Continued From Page 1, Col. 8 when or where he'd strike. What our policy-makers or the South Vietnamese did with our reports is out of our hands." Nonetheless, there are other veteran United States intelli- gence officials who concede that the North Vietnamese gained a major tactical surprise -and four or five days of vir- tually unimpeded advance, which led to the seizure of Quantri-by hitting where and sources here say. "We know when something's going along the trail," said one, source, "but we don't always' know whether it's a truck-or a tank." The appearance of about 30 North Vietnamese tanks-half of them 40-ton T-54's and the rest 15-ton amphibious PT-76's around Tayninh and Anloc sur- prised both the United States and South Vietnamese. Whether they were disassem- bled and brought south by when it was least expected. truck or river boat, or whether "The intelligence people did they were driven at night and notanticit .te that the Northlcamouflaged by day to avoid Vietiaipese would - a_R ttie United tSates air attacks, is short rr -te" -'one such source still unclear. But each trip must said. "The surprise was that for have taken two to three the first time in 18 years the months, in the view of spe- Communists stopped the pre- cialists here. tense oI 'irifiltration-' and went The steady reduction in Unit-', down the coastal Highway I. ed States ground combat in re-' Frankly we were surprised that cent months and the_ cutback eau ~.+?vv ..--. - rMS-neen ny 4 ~-_ ure" durin the five-wee of- v' was d addition, T. In addition, e , intelligence ens_e in Vietnam. el a d sources here acknowledge that enemy build - d !they have been surprised by the at th e t 1 e n o serve an m ttsly vast quantities of bulky and re orted since It begat early often complex weapons moved as much as 600 to 700 miles i"c year. south by trucks, river boats and "We've kept the policy-mak- even on bicycles pushed or rid- ers fully informed" said one iden over jungle trails. source,I who asked not to be Z!- knew an offensive was " said one intelligence of much American aerial sur- veillance are cited as reasons why the North managed to achieve these surprises. "We've cut way back on our SLAR," an informant said, re- ferring to Sideways-Looking Airborne Radar flights. "Even radar isn't much help when you're trying to peer through two or three canopies of jungle or through camouflage strung for miles over trails." ou though we c especially the amount of theirf (Continued on Page 19, Column`4 ammunition. They dropped more .L-- a ,no .?rr;nnr~r rromds into identified. "There's been no dis- analyt' "but we didn't know agreement about the "01117 the quantity, and the types of capability. We saw the build-up their supplies, the distribution ldn't tell just into future battle areas, and that the United States, despite ) its array of electronic technol- ogy, infrared photography, their radio communications for The United States aerial's flights that used Infrared de-1 Approved For Rele AA* We &W q 74B00415R000300200015-7 THE Ev!/Nlrgl Vaflelease 2001/08/28: CIA- DATEO~' 001 PAGE Q%I5 TO NIXON CIA I To Doubtful on Port Mining, By MORTON KONDRAC and THOMAS B. ROSS In the i969 study, Kissinger taked: - 'What are current di2t .tT proportion of war- essential imports that could. come into NVN (North Viet- nam) over the rail or-road lines from China, even 2.aJl Imports by sea were denied and strong effort even made to interdict ground trans- port?" The CIA replied: "All the war-essential imports could be brought into North Vietnam over rail lines or roads from China in the event that imports by sea were successfully de- nied. . "On the other hand, one im- portant point should be kept in mind. The North Vietnamese surprised many observers, lad confounded many predici- tions, by llofdingtogether and simultaneously sending ever- increasing amounts of supplies and personnel into the South during 3% years of bombing "With this experience in mind, there is little reason to believe that new bombing will c accomplish what previous bombing failed to do, unless it is conducted with much great- er intensity and readiness to defy criticism and risk of es- calation." The Defense Department de- clared: "An interdiction cam- paign . . . when employed in conjunction with denial of sea imports, would, in large part, ,isolate Hanoi and Haiphong from each other and from the rest of the country." Chicago Sun-Times Service I President Nixon was advised by the Central Intelligence Agency in 1969 that the type of action he now has ordered to cut off supplies.to North Viet- nam would not worts. "Within two or three months," the CIA declared in a secret memo, "North Viet- nam and its allies would be. able to..implement alternative procedures for maintaining the flow of essential economic and military imports." The State Department and the Defense Department were less pessimistic. But both con- ceded that the effort to pre- vent resupply through alterna- tive land routes from China would involve much heavier bombing and a much, higher risk of civilian,.casualtie's. The eAtimates of?the three agencies, are contained in Na- tional Security Memorandum 1 `(NSSM-1), a secret study of the war compiled by the Pre'si- dentis national security advis- er He try A. Kissinger. Gravel Reads Memo This section of the memo was read into the Congression- al Record on the .senate floor yesterday by Sen. iike Grav- el, D -Alaska, altho ii two weeks ago he hia been blocked by Republicans from doing so. Copies bf the memo 'also have been mid their contents rep by some newspapers recently: Asked about the CIA's (gloomy forecast at a press conference yesterday, Kissin- ger said it had been "carefully considered" but that Nixon j also had before him recent and "much more detailed studies," which he implied were more optimistic. Pessimistic View "Almost four years of air war in North Vietnam have shown - as did the Korean war - that, although air strikes will destroy transport facilities, equipment and sup- plies, they cannot successfully interdict the flow of supplies because much of the damage can frequently be repaired within hours .. . "An intensive and sustained air interdiction program could have a good chance of reduc- ing the northern rail capacity by at least half. However, roads are less vulnerable to interdiction, and waterways even less so .. . "In +.addition to the overland capacity, an airlift from chinese airfields could poten- tially provide a means for im- porting a large volume of -high-priority goods. Moreover, -total interdiction of seaborne imports would be difficult be- cause shallow-draft lighters could be used to unload cargo "(ram oceangoing ships anc- hored in waters outside the -mined major harbor areas." The State Department com- mented: "we do not believe that the capacity of the DRV- PRC (North Vietnam-China) road and rail network is great .enough to permit an adequate flow of supplies in the face of an intense day and night bombing campaign .. . Approved For Release 2001/08/28 : CIA-RDP74B00415R000300200015-7 U 4M4-11- "-0-1 THE W'.A WbTOW(Dor Rye 2001/08/28: CIA-Bp $B14l' dg6b2000 2E The Was b gton Merry.Go-Round THE WASHINGTON POST Wednesday May 31, 1972 M-Nog Said to Bolster Hanoi El fa xhe.~'e's.,no -dot , kbt that the. nd crippled production.-But- the intelligence reports say that the North Vietnamese economy was already breaking clown. NQw Hanoi can blame it 4L.. Q th bombing and exhort the people to put up with hardships in the name of pa- triotism. Even before President Dixon renewed the. bombing, the intelligence reports claim, North Vietnam was badly fal- tering. The, economy had been strained by war and .battered by floods. This had ,caused, ~ virtual breakdown of the- distribution system. Farmers were hoard ing their harvests instead of delivering them to the market. Only the black market was bustling. Smugglers and spec- ulators were doing a brisk business behind the. backs of the commissars. Last year's floplls were said to. be the worst in, 25 years. ce. re bab y at-I'e s "Livestock losses were par- B_LD ticularly serious, primarily be- .knowledge cannot be cut off'They should go for Humphrey cause of the loss of draft ani- by bombing h . coals ... Hanoi had been Because of the bombing, saved only because .the dikes Hanoi has also brought pres- had been purposely breached sure upon Moscow and Peking to channel the flood waters to increase their shipments. into the districts north of the There's a d goo possibility, de- city." spite the bombing, that the O n top of war losses, this was more than the harassed North Vietnamese economy could stand. One intelligence estimate suggests that Hanoi launched the recent offensive, in part, to divert the people's attention from their economic woes. In a sense, the U.S. naval and air bombardment was almost welcome as an ex- cuse to explain the staggering shortages and to overcome in- ternal discontent. There's no doubt, too, that the mining; of Haiphong har. bor and the bombing of the rail lines has disrupted the flow of military supplies. But this has also. forced the two Communist rivals, Russia and China, to work together for the first time in 10,years to help their North Vietnamese ally. Intelligence reports claim that the Chinese have agreed to permit a massive increase in Soviet rail shipments across China. The first shipments, which would have been loaded onto ships at Vladivostok, have already been diverted overland. China and North Vietnam are linked by a network of rail lines, roads and trails which our own militaryy, experts ac- tries that would be restricted., North Vietnamese will wind up with all the military sup- plies they'll need. Greek's Predictions Our own private pollster, Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy the Greek Snyder, predicts next Tuesday's crucial Califor- nia primary race will end in a "dead heat" between Demo- crats George McGovern and Hubert Humphrey. Every other major canvass. er has picked McGovern to win by a comfortable margin. The Greek, however, thinks Humphrey will be saved by what is known as "Proposition 9" on the California ballot. This is an environmental proposal which, among other things, would shut down cor- porate polluters, restrict off- shore oil drilling, initiate z, five-year moratorium on con- struction of nuclear power plants, and restrict pesticides. Jimmy believes California's huge block of undecided vot- ers will be lured to the polls by their opposition to "Prop. 9." His surveys show most of these voters will pull the lever over the Humphrey column. A large number of the silent "undecideds," Jimmy reckons, are people who work in indus- t e labor-backed candidate. But a lot can happen be- tween now and the June 6 pri- mary day, the Greek warned us. The three-part Humphrey. McGovern debates, in particu. lar, could affect the outcome. McGovern has the most money and a better organiza- tion, Jimmy conceded. But on the negative side, McGovern hurt himself with California's huge defense industry when he voted against a federal loan for Lockheed Aircraft. Humphrey, possibly looking to the California race, quietly cast the deciding vote in favor of Lockheed. It all. adds up, says the na- tion's premier oddsmaker, to a neck-and-neck race. Note: The Greek called two other primaries for us right on the nose, picking Wallace to take the Democratic prize in Florida and Humphrey to edge McGovern in the close Ohio primary. p 1972, United Feature Syndicate Approved For Release 2001/08/28 : CIA-RDP74B00415R000300200015-7 Approved For Release 2001/08/28 : CIA-RDP7 41 300200015-7 ~ THE WASHINGTON POST DATE PAGE I.J 1) i 1 The Washington Merry-Go-Round THE WASHINGTON POST Friday, Aug. 18,1977 D 17 Hanoi Signals Viewed Not Serious By Jack Anderson e hav_ e_hatLa,Fc ss ko~las- g documents wh1 tf new""Tig on e controversy ?n~ he V nam 3y4pl - .. out several signals after the 1968 election that they were willing to make peace with the new Nixon , administration. These ranged from guarded messages . to military pull- 'backs. The messages, some more vague than others, reached Washington through a variety of channels. But more impres- sive.was the withdrawal of 22 of 25 regiments from the two northernmost provinces of South Vietnam. The key to the' controversy lies in the interpretation of these moves. The new Presi- dent chose not to regard the messages as serious peace overtures. He also interpreted the withdrawal of the 22 regi- ments as a military redeploy. ment rather than a political signal. The minutes of a secret White House meeting on Oct. 28, 1969, summarize the Nixon attitude. Speaking for the President, Henry Kissinger de- clared; "We have mentioned 'cease- fire'' (to Hanoi) in various con- notations. If they want a rea- sonable compromise we will meet them half-w,ay. of they in- sist on American humiliation, we will resist." He held out hope the North Vietnamese, despite louder growlings from Hanoi, would come to terms. "The Hanoi tactics are the use of unbri- dled ferocity," Kissinger said, "until just before they are ready to settle." He outlined a two-track strategy for peace. "The rapid road would be negotiation," he said, "the slow road Vietnami- zation." nations. But the document stressed: "While s o m e Southeast Asian leaders would probably entertain doubts about the will of the U.S. to play a secu- rity role in the area, we do not believe that they would be panicked into precipitate changes in policy or posture." Instead, the document pre- dicted these leaders would take a wait-and-see stance. The estimate also offered a virtual point-by-point rebuttal of the so-called "domino theory" which the Johnson ad- ministration had so often used as its rationalization for. con- tinuing the war. The document declared, for example, that Hanoi no doubt hopes to extend its control over Laos and Cambodia but would probably bide its time. "They might fear some risk of a new U.S. military re- sponse," it was suggested. "Moreover, Hanoi would be preoccupied for a time at least with the formidable task of consolidating Communist rule in South Vietnam." The estimate gave this fore- cast about relations between Hanoi and Peking in the event of a Communist triumph in the south: "It is possible ... that the two countries would draw ploser together ... It seems more likely, however, that Hanoi would wish to take the opportunity to establish quite clearly its independence of the C=hinese, relying on continued Soviet and available Free World" assistance. The. document said Peking could be expected to beat the propaganda drums over the expansion of Communist con- trol. But it added signifi- cantly: "Current Chinese strategy does not appear to call for overt aggression, and we do not foresee a change in this strategy." As for Moscow, the docu- ment predicted: "The Soviet Union is not likely to become a major supporter of Commu- nist subversion in Southeast Asia after Vietnam." mh_ P,[, .TA',,a,Off ce of N Anal I F L i teswould eoneurre in 1969 t11 o h Vi m onsume pelf 1 Laos ntlti etnam. & w u""8 i111tely fcila i7itci....1 .e . oil unast ' orb~r' .Thi.s..would., leave,. Southeast ,Asia,,.._thg _ CIA's opinion, ';j= as it is at least"' 16-ran. eration ~'? ' ?.LL Whatever the intelligence assessment, however, Presi- dent Nixon's political assess- ment was that he couldn't af- ford to lose South Vietnam to the Communists before the 1972 election. Perhaps he is right that the "rapid road" to peace, via ne- gotiation, was illusory. But the "slow road," which he elected to take, has cost more than 15,000 American lives since he took office. 01972, United Feature Syndicate Slow Road resident Nixon has trav- miaA t a a nw rna___ a into Lom nis & -MIN n Smith , _ 000:, His Vygtnamization policy, tiere ncta. pj jug it. The President was deter- mined to hold off the day the Communists took power in Saigon, we must conclude, for his own political reasons. He simply didn't want the Com- munists in control of the south while he was running for re- election in 1972. He had reason to regard Communist control more as a political problem for himself than a serious menace to the U.S. ,.it. the ti; =of hiS.~11- ion the National Intel licence 'stiimate was - s o a ommi;,iL?- There would be damage, ac- cording to the estimate to U.S. prestige and credibhith among other Southeast A~Sa Approved For Release 2001/08/28 : CIA-RDP74B00415R000300200015-7 N" W' t~h "L l c. A(`'~7 k vpprovect elease 2001/08/288` I'A_ r j 9~0 3002000 * t `The Human Cost- of Communism' `If the North takes over the South, what will the bloodbath be?' By ROBERT THOMPSON . LONDON-The present invasion of South Vietnam and the intense fighting of the last few weeks draw attention once again to the human suffering caused, on an almost unprecedented scale, to the Vietnamese people by the continuing war. I am not here consid- ering the battle casualties which, although on each side they have prob- ably reached 500,000, can at least be regarded as "legitimate" in war. 'Nor am I considering the refugees who, although their plight may be tragic, are at least still alive. What should most concern us is the number of civilians who have been killed in both halves of Vietnam, and those who may yet die in the future, as part of the human cost of Communism. The Western conscience is imme- diately pricked : by an American- committed atrocity, such as Mylai, and by the civilian casualties caused by the bombipg of the North (although such casualties are now likely to be far less than during 1965-68 because of the development of the extremely accurate "smart" bomb). Little or no attention, however, and certainly no' equivalent reporting, has been given to similar Vietcong or North Vietnamese atrocities which have occurred on a scale that' makes Mylai almost insignificant. These have not occurred because of some aberra tion, accident or inaccuracy of bomb- ing. They have occurred, both selec- tively and indiscriminately, as a matter of deliberate policy. At the time Hanoi complained of six civilian casualties, as a result of the first American raid on the North after the invasion began, she was firing 122-mm. rockets indiscriminately into Saigon and Pnompenh, killing more than ten times that number. Her Russian 130-mm. guns have pounded Anloc and Quangtri to rubble. They will do the same to Kontum and Hue if they get within range without any consideration whatsoever for the civilian population. Everyone has heard of Mylai, but who has heard of Caibe where the Vietcong, after its capture, lingered only to murder the wives and children of all the local militia? Or of the Montagnard village of Dakson, where they moved from hut to hut with flame-throwers incinerating more than 250 villagers, two-thirds of them women and children? Most people have heard of the massacres at Hue in 1968 where the Vietcong and North Vietnamese, after its capture, executed 5,700 people (as assessed from the mass graves found afterwards) but who knows that in captured documents they gloated over these figures and only complained that they had not killed enough? These were not aberrations, nor savagery for sav- agery's sak nor, the work of undis- ciplined soYthers atmg in violation of instructions, but part of a ruthless deliberate policy designed to break a people who would not otherwise bend to their will. The world cannot plead ignorance because it has all been well docu- mented. The evidence has been author- itatively put together in a compendium prepared, surprisingly, for the United States Senate Committee on the Judici- ary (the meat was obviously too red for Senator Fulbright and the Foreign Affairs Committee). There are distressing implications for the future. If the invasion succeeds and the North takes over the South, what will the bloodbath be? Four years ago I estimated that it would be several hundred thousands. I' now wish to amend that figure to well over one million (out of eighteen million people). The critics of the war may claim that the forecasts are exaggerated. But Colonel Tran Van Dac, a North Viet- namese officer who defected after twenty-four years in the Communist party, stated that the Communists, if they win, would slaughter up to three million South Vienamese, and another colonel, Le Xuan Chuyen, who defected after twenty-one years, stated that five million people in South Vietnam were on the Communist "blood debt" list and that 10-15 per cent of these would pay with their lives. When asked in an interview if the possibility of a bloodbath had been exaggerated he replied: "It could not be exaggerated. It will happen." Sir Robert Thompson is the British expert on guerrilla warfare who has undertaken secret missions for Presi- dent Nixon to report on events in Vietnam. Approved For Release 2001/08/28 : CIA-RDP74B00415R000300200015-7 Approved For Release 2001/08/28: CIA-RDP74 4'j RQ4 300200015-7 ,, THE WASHINGTON POST DATE PAGE Coieth orisputes u D Vietnamese Blood bat By George C. Wilson 'WS.shington Post Staff Writer charge by President d o eir own ppo lei when they-- too over count in the "is a to accorain to a stua .,.yes er.. ay , Y The charges are dispatched 1}~~ a 59-page essa.y by b.'Garelth Porter, a 30-year-old research associate at Cornell's inter- national relations of East Asia project. Cornell's project of- fice, in `sendifig out the re- port, said It deserves "imme- diate, widespread public at- tention" because of Mr. Nix on's frequent references to the alleged bloodbath in North Vietnam. "This bloodbath myth is the result of a deliberate propa- ganda campaign by the South Vietnamese and LJ.S.govern. ments to discredit" North Vietnam, Porter says in ' sum marizing the paper he re- searched In South Vietnam and at .oril I. Porter has been a ct`itic f the Vietnam war. The prime source for Presi- dent Nixon, author Bernard Fail d ohers ,in describing the aiege massacre during the North Vietnamese land re- form ' from 1953 to 1956 is a book guilty o! "gross misquo- tation" and "fraudulent docu- 'ient.atign," Porter alleges. iip-en In enev. ae~oY2Cina to Porter. ran- s He charges Chi also m now W"WTAffi course arman hichwas plainly not histori- w slated Gen. Vo Nguyen Giap's cal accuracy but propaganda in Soutlieasi Asia orientation speech of Oct. 29, 1956, on at the State Department's a ainsf" o't'h Vietnam, says according land reform. Giap, ers President. of Washington Training Center, Port Ithe Chi's translation, said the ed State himself has , lectur- was at Ft. Bragg, I.C. the U nit party "executed too many hon- to tie t-, -Am iis2f le that - ing and could not be reached est people" and came to re ai6` tar# a mt'tlton' 11 people for comment yesterday. gard torture as normal prac- tiiinateti. D. The National Security Coun tice. cil cited Chi's book as one of Approved For Release 2001/08/28 : CIA-RDP74B00415R000300200015-7 to an sident Nixon's sources for. laring on April 16, 1971, "I thjf a half a million, by eon es rvat>_ve esimletl~?, In North VietnamwFio wdrre' dered or otherwise extermi- nated by the North Vietnam eseafter they took over from the South ..." The President added at that same news conference that "if the United States were to fail in Vietnam, if the Communists " vvc t''"1d take over, the blood- bath that would follow would I be a blot on this nation's his- tory from which we would find it very difficult to return In contrast to CIA's descrip- tion of Chi as a "former Viet- minh cadre" who could thus be expected to have firsthand knowledge of the land reform program, Porter asserts that Chi was never a party member before leaving the North for south Vietnam in 1955. "Mr. Chi was himself a rela- tively w e a I the landowner," Porter clalms on the basis of an interview with. Chi. Thus, he argues, Chi could not be expected to give an unbiased account of the land reform Asked by Porter to docu- program. mdht the President's "half a Western authors like Fall,1 mtllioii" Tigure,' the National says Porter, suffered a "criti- Security Council quoted Chi cal" shortcoming because they as writing the following: "The could not read Vietnamese guilt complex which haunted and thus could not research the peasants' minds after the the original documents the I massacre of about 5 per cent North Vietnamese used to of the total population . . ' communicate with their own The National Security Council cadre. Fall and others, there- added on its own that "5 per fore, had to rely on Saigon cent of the total population ofi and U.S. government summa- North Vietnam at that time ries of the North Vietnamese ! would be about 700,000." I material or on authors like "Mr. Chi offers no justifica- Chi. (Porter reads Vietnamese tion for this allegation" that 5 and said in an interview that j per cent of the North Viet-' this enabled him to study doc- I that went to North VI. t s s mur umen namese population wa dered, asserts Porter, "but he, etnamese cadre from party lations (which Porter said other scholars and Vietnamese corroborated), Porter alleges that '`Mr. Chi's translation is one of his most flagrant !abuses of documentary evi- dence." Donald Brewster is the Na- tional Security Council staffer (on loan there from AID) who discussed the source of Mr. Nixon's bloodbath figures with Porter. Brewster told The Washington Post yesterday that real and literal meanings of communist statements are sometimes two different things. Brewster added that the sources he cited for Porter "are not the totality" of the material the White House re- lied upon. Also, said Brewster, it is the trend that is most im- portant, not specific figures. In that sense, he said, the trend of Communist actions, such as North Vietnamese as- sassinations in Hue, shows fears of a bloodbath in South Vietnam are indeed well founded, just as President Nixon has stated. Porter himself said in an in- terview that he has filed for conscientious objector status and would decline to serve in the military in the Vietnam war. He is on a year-long fel- lowship, $5,000 for the aca- demic year, in pursuit of his doctorate at Cornell's E. Asia research center: In an attempt to show the danger relying on summaries and other secondary sources, Porter charges Chi distorted a North Vietnamese party (Lao- dong Party) slogan by saying it included the phrase, "liqui- date the landlords." There was no such phrase, Porter asserts. Instead, he alleges, the slogan said: "Abolish the feudal re- gime of land ownership in a manner that is discriminating, methodical and under sound leadership." i t most of the deaths were those of children who starved 'owing to the isolation policy.' Charges Porter: "This is yet another of the many wholly unsubstantiated charges put forth by Mr. Chi, for there was no such policy of isolating families, even of those land- lords sentenced for serious c,~rimes during the land reform . ".YEt ~.it is mainly on the basis. of Mr. Chirs-totally unre- liable account, the intention of GARETH PORTER Now Vietnam study