CIA OFFICIAL IS DOUBTFUL OF VICTORY IN VIET NAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00001R000200180047-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 6, 2000
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: August 23, 1964
• Content Type: NSPR

OffkiaI IsDo~btful
Ido,ry in Viet Nan
Approved For Ieleasd 2001/9RMA-00001RO
Approve
1 ? ' ?.? _lligcnCa . gcno ? ^RR:.,.,^- hee vninnrl "carihus:.
oubt that victory can be won" in South Viet Nam and has.
uggested the eventual outcome might be a negotiated settlement.
dministration sources said yesterday this is not the, United
s Government'; view
t
t
.
e
a
The conclusion that no military end to the, war against Red
guerrillas is in sight was ex y- Y
Viet Cong Active
wrote
tthi
ember of the WA's Board of
ational Estimates, in a June 8
aper on "Trends in the World
ituation."
Mr. Matthias wrote that the
ommunist Viet Cong have
tepped up their offensive and
he counter-guerrilla effort "con-
inues to flounder" under poor
rosecution by the Saigon gov-
rnment. .
Sees Long Stalemate
"the
as
.Mr. Ma
guerrilla war in South Viet Nam
is in its fifth year and no end
appears In sight.'`:.
"The Viet Cong in the south, I
dependent largely upon their
own resources and control of
the Communist regime in. the
north, are pressing ' their of-,
fensive more vigorously than
I
said
" h
.
e.
ever,
"The political mistakes of the1. Mr. A7`attliiits was expressing
not those of the
inhibited the ef his own views
i
,
me
Diem reg
Continued large-scale UnitedI fective prosecution of the war United States Government or of
States support of the anti- which Is really more of a politi-1 any agency within the United
guerrilla campaign and an end cal contest than a military oper-i States Government. Members
to "further political deteriora- ation, and led to the regime'si of the National Intelligence Esti-
tion within South Viet Nam" destruction., mates Board, a 12-man CIA
could at least achieve "a pro- "The counter-guerrilla efforl?I committee, and. others have',
longed stalemate," the CIA of- continues to flounder, partly be-: written numerous papers which'
ficer said. 1cause of the inherent difficulty are valuable for circulating
Mr. Matthias said there also : of the problem and partly be ideas but do not represent policy;
Is a chance that future develop- cause Diem's successors have Mr. Matthias' memo was cir-
ments "could lead to some kind: not yet demonstrated the lead; culated among a few lower:
of negotiated settlement based: ership and the`inspiration n(;ces-; ranking officials but was never
upon neutralization." French. sary. given to the policy-setting Na`.
President Charles de Gaulle has, Situation Is Fragile tional Security Council. It was
suggested neutralization of the ; submitted for publication to .
area, an idea coolly received: "There remains serious doubt magazine, which turned it down
by the United States Govern- that victory can be won, and, The anti-guerrilla campaig
ment. the situation remains very in South Viet Nam may be .lon
Administration sources made (fragile. If large-scale United and arduous, but the Unite
I
States support continues and ~ States Government is fully corn
would be pub-. t available' if further political deterioration ~ nutted to stemming the insur
the after -page
after
lished in 'the it t woul Chicago Tribune. within South Viet Nam is pre-! gents there, and believe this wi
A cover sheet to Mr. Mat- vented, at least a prolonged, be done.
stalemate can be attained. The United States Govern
thias' paper, signed by Sher-,.
T}tere also is a chance that: ment sees no grounds for neg Na- man I{ant, chairman of the stated political evolution within the: tiation with the Reds over Sout '
tional Estimates Board, stated .I country and developments upon Viet Nam at this time. A neg
tiated settlement already ha
circ Th e the world scene could lead toI
late ad "thefor r information." document
paper "has general board ap- some kind of negotiated settle- I been reached at the Geneva co
proval, though no attempt has ment based upon neutraliza-i ferences on Indo-China and it ?
h {lion. up to the Communists tom qu
,
en ,q~ a e to reac
~+er~~~ee~il$1
fit," Mr. Kent said..