CHINESE ECONOMY IS FOUND LAGGING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00001R000300210052-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 2, 2000
• Sequence Number: 52
• Publication Date: March 7, 1957
• Content Type: NSPR

pane 7 'M 7
N.r w ? y
Approved For-Release
? NTTT~TTYh?.~ r..v...T..--- rer .an-s Shonn? .ronv h
? ,v11LLiLAkI A i J%J ViiLi !
I JUIU) LUII\U
U.S: Experts Say Output Is
Below 1960 Levels
CPYRGHT
survey of the Chinese economic all Chinese economic growth
situation ever published in Eng-
Government and ' academic ex-l' achieved in modernizing mili-
perts has found that Commu-; tary equipment. J. G. Godaire
mist China's economy has lost' of the Central Intelligence
much ground in the nineteen-] Agency suggests.that the stock
sixties, and that the prospectst of modern arms, based on do-
for substantial improvement in! mestic resources, may now be
the years immediately ahead equal to the maximum domestic
are poor. production of 1957-59 plus the
These conclusions emerge value of the Soviet military aid
from a symposium on the Chi-i given at that time.
nose economy made public byMr. Godaire comments that;
the Joint Economic Committee "domestic production of mili- i
of Congress. Titled "An Eco- tary equipment seems to have
i nomic Profile of Mainland Chi- had priority over the produc-
na," the symposium's reports tion of civilian investment goods
give the most comprehensive , at considerable cost to the over-
Several of the articles raise
the possibility that China may
suffer economic retrogression in
the period immediately ahead
because of disruption caused by
the Cultural Revolution.
The darkest prospects appear
to exist in agriculture where,
according to Marion R. Yarsen
of the Department of Agricul-
ture, the food situation 'was
tight even before recent disor-
ders. "A serious decline in the
ipon output in agriculture `" - W.-.. w"`-""-
vhere substantial production lion from trade and services, a
increases are unlikely. 10 per cent gain over 1957.
Tl th d The Joint Economic Commit-
author, Dr. Robert M. Field of
the Central Intelligence Agency,
concludes that at best by 1970
the Peking regime's "misguided
economic policies . . . will have
cost China a full decade's indus-
trial growth."
Dr. Field expects slow Chi-
nese industrial growth, in the
coming years because' of the
ontinuing drain of China's
atomic and other weapons pro-
grams on resources needed for
heavy industry and because con-
agricultural sector" could result
if recent political unrest persists
into the period of farm work,
according to the report.
Paper by C.I.A. Men.
A review of China's industry
concludes that the country will
be fortunate if it is able to
regain the 19660 peak of indus-
trial production by 1970. The
baan slow, other countries have
been . increasing their output
rapidly. Data presented by Dr.
Field, for,example, indicate that
India's industrial output rose
about 40 per cent between 1960
and 1965, while China's indus-
trial production was almost 20
per cent below the 1960 level
in 1965.
The most impressive eco-
A picture of Chinese economic
growth is presented by data on
gross national product the total
production of goods and serv-
ices, by Prof. Ta-Chung Liu of
Cornell University.
Data on China's G.N.P.
Expressed in the Chinese
monetary unit, the yuan, and
in constant prices, the data in-
dicate that the gross national
product rose from 71.4 billion
yuan in 1952 to a peak of 108
billion yuan in 1958. Then the
gross national product fell to a
low of 92.2 billion yuan in 1961
and finally reached the 1958
level once again in 1965. Yuan
values cannot be easily ex-
pressed in dollar terms.
An alternative gross-national-
product calculation in dollar
terms is presented by Edwin F.
Jones of the State Department.
.tie estimates that the Chinese
gross national product grew
from about 65-billion in 1957 to
$73.3-billion in 1965, or just
enough to keep per capita pro-
duction, for a rising population,
constant at $101 annually.
In 1965, Mr. Jones estimates,
output consisted of $33.7-billion
from agriculture, an 8 per cents
gain over 1957; $21.5-billion
from.industry, construction and
transport a 24 per cent 'in-
tee,. an informed source said
yesterday, intends -to hold five
days of hearings next month
on the Chinese economy, hear-
in, testimony on the papers
just publis'ncd as well as expert
evalu