'STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, USSR AND EASTERN EUROPE' DELIVERED BEFORE STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE SCHOOL, US ARMY ON 26 JANUARY 1951 BY JOHN M. MAURY, OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES, CIA.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00001R000300470044-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 2, 1999
• Sequence Number: 44
• Content Type: MISC

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- 18 -
doing. They can create doubt, fear, and division among the Western Powers.
They can appeal to Germans in the name of German unity and they can intimidate
the Germans by warning them of the consequences of their participation. They
can, I am afraid, take considerable comfort from the signs of political dis-
unity here in the US. Moreover, there are soft spots in the Middle East and
tempting targets in Southeast Asia. In terms of long-range war strategy, there=
fore, the Politburo probably sees no reason to abandon hope of future success
by means short of war.
Finally, does the Kremlin actually fear an attack by the Western Powers?
Judging from Soviet propaganda the answer would certainly seem to be yes. How-
ever, Soviet leaders have in the past demonstrated a pretty skillful ability
to reduce international tension by a few kind words and token concessions.
And the Politburo, at least, must realize the difficulties that leaders in the
democratic nations would have in preparing and launching an aggressive war even
if they want to. The only reason we are mobilizing at all is because of Soviet
provocations, and the better informed observers in Moscow surely must realize
that by even temporarily abstaining from these provocations they might undermine
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