'STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, USSR AND EASTERN EUROPE' DELIVERED BEFORE STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE SCHOOL, US ARMY ON 26 JANUARY 1951 BY JOHN M. MAURY, OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES, CIA.

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP75-00001R000300470044-6
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
24
Document Creation Date: 
December 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
March 2, 1999
Sequence Number: 
44
Case Number: 
Content Type: 
MISC
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP75-00001R000300470044-6.pdf2.06 MB
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Approved For Release 2000/09/1 DP75-00001 R000300470044-6 25X1A9a 25X1A9a Ilk Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 Approved For Release 2000/0911 V CIAIRDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 fo , bt vhat On, MOT Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 Approved For Release 2000/09'~A*RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 tt e t ruI ' t their tra d # &Ch to 10 idl t Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 Approved For Release 2000/01+1 1-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 SMEr Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 rf%utl Approved For Release 2000/09/1 4R- R000300470044-6 ftittlao ~,.)irouvtmt the s~ sa Un to SECRET Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 Approved For Release 2000/09/1144,14, -IP75-00001 R000300470044-6 twin` the d o tr n8 In Or4w to or, With the ap Id i AUMISUO f aith# ct. 1 t Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 fuun's G.4, o h Q a W:4 try aria -f Lutca, The a* tdi'd'''it SfCREI .pot t Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 Approved For Release 2000/09AO :IA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 II and, finally, gain control of the rest of the world. basin 't omidmr-Uon under i M. 4d': It 4V ^ 46 CIET Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 tying t"?.d mi'C. 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They can create doubt, fear, and division among the Western Powers. They can appeal to Germans in the name of German unity and they can intimidate the Germans by warning them of the consequences of their participation. They can, I am afraid, take considerable comfort from the signs of political dis- unity here in the US. Moreover, there are soft spots in the Middle East and tempting targets in Southeast Asia. In terms of long-range war strategy, there= fore, the Politburo probably sees no reason to abandon hope of future success by means short of war. Finally, does the Kremlin actually fear an attack by the Western Powers? Judging from Soviet propaganda the answer would certainly seem to be yes. How- ever, Soviet leaders have in the past demonstrated a pretty skillful ability to reduce international tension by a few kind words and token concessions. And the Politburo, at least, must realize the difficulties that leaders in the democratic nations would have in preparing and launching an aggressive war even if they want to. The only reason we are mobilizing at all is because of Soviet provocations, and the better informed observers in Moscow surely must realize that by even temporarily abstaining from these provocations they might undermine Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 Approved For Release 2000/09/ tDP75-000018000300470044-6 *, 9T ,- .0 I ay Vie W&SUrn 4 'garA. :a Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 Approved For Release 2000/09/11: CIS-RDP75-00001 R000300470044-6 h ttwo!,tt of vur In feet L -: t W. ;:,, .: . 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