VIETNAM VICTORY DOUBTFUL, SAYS ANALYST FOR CIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00001R000300490085-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 17, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 20, 1998
• Sequence Number: 85
• Publication Date: August 23, 1964
• Content Type: NSPR

ST. TOUTS.
POST-DISPATCFT
Approved For Release N/4 -CIA-R
f\1~6j~ F~f SI FOR CA~ Chicago Tribune which intended;
V `{ ` to publish it.
V.E. NAM \JIGTORY.
001EMOTIUL SAYS
High Administration
Men Deny Views
} epresent Policy
dPYRGH
WASHINGTON, Aug. 22 (UPI)
- High ~Admiftis_t_raLlon o tcta s
said today that a Central Intelli-
gence Agency document declar-
i ing that victory over the Com-
munists in South Viet Nam is
doubtful and that eventually it
may be necessary to snake a neu?
tralization deal, noes not repre.
sent United States policy.
The 45-page paper, prepares
by Willard Matthias of CIA':
Board of National Estimates, at
tempts to assess developments it
various parts of the world withit
the framework of the Soviet
American power. relationship.
The paper was written earl;
this year. It has been circulates
among various government ages
ties wash a notation that it has
"general approval" of the CIJ
board which had, however, mad
no attempt "to reach complet
agreement on every point of it:'
single official suggesting a pos- ;t
correctly construed as Admini-
sources said it was then decided
demonstrate both that it was not,
a secret and that it was of a dis-
cursive nature.
Summary of Changes
Aside from the Viet Nam
outralization reference, th e
outine summary of the obvious
hanges brought about by the?
uclear stalemate between Rus-?
io and the United States, corn-
lictted by the Communist Chi-
cse-Russian idcalogi'cal conflict:
The fact that. both the Soviet
Jnion and the United States no,r
lave the nuclear capability
estroy each other "has NOT
only depreciated the value of
strategic power in the achcve
ment of particular objectives: it.
i has also come to circun,scrib f
a
military power," the CIA r er South Viet Nam which apparent China and North Viet N: nr
says. It has become increasing- ly touched a sensitive Adminis-i domonst -ate that they intend to
ly difficult for either of the gi'eat;'tration nerve said: "leave their hei;;hbars alone."
powers to project its mililarv: "The counter-guerrilla effort Discussing- the problems of the
power in conventional. form into'continues to flounder, partly be- Communist world, including the
other areas of the world Cr into cause of. the inherent difficulty Chinese-Soviet conflict as well as
disputes which may arise." of the problem and partly be- the growing differences of some
The paper continues: cause ([he late President Ngo cast European Reds with Mps- I
Dinh Diem's successors 'have. rote, Matthias wrote:
]y iWithnhibililCd didfrom powe "rsbr increasing- inn;, not yet demonstrated the leader. "We can confidently expect
their strategic capabilities and ship and the inspiration neces- that this situation will continue
projecting their conventional sary. There remains seriour?' and that Communism in the fu-.I
ones," the "secondary and mincr doubt that victory can be won, tore will come to possess still
powers" such is Prance. Egypt, and the situation remains very less doctrinal uniformity than it
and Indonesia, have taken th;; fragile. , now has. Indeed, the national and 1
opportunity to strengthen their? If large-scale United States doctrinal antagonisms whichl
arsenals and try to play a great support continues and if further exist may occasionally lead to
er role in international affairs, political deterioration in South armed conflict; the Communist
For Others, a Nuisance i Viet Nam is prevented, at least world may come to be as diverse
I a prolonged, stalemate can be at- and undisciplined as the non-
Matthias wrote hands "a nuclear tained. There is also -a chance Communist world.",
capability in the hands of ot;ur; that political evolution in the The CIA author said develop-;
than the two great powers is a country and developments on the ments in the Communist camp
nuisance and a potential trouble-
world scene could lead to some "suggest that for the next several
maker, but.it is not much of a kind of negotiated settlement: years at least the world may be,
factor in the world balance o[- - -- --- t
military power or indeed in the I based on neutralization,' 'replete. with strife and disorder
d S but not on the verge of nuclear
'No Win' Charges
Administration officials wee
disturbed by the possible petit
cal implications of the docume
at this time inasmuch as R -.
publican presidential n o in i n e
Barry M. Goldwater's charg
of a "no win" foreign policy.
The officials said they wants
to emphasize that the paper ha
never been presented to or Co -
sidered by President Lyndon
Johnson's N a t ion a 1 Securi y
Council nor the top level Unite i
States Intelligence Estimate
Board.
Working papers of officials
the CIA are almost never mae
public. This one was made pu
lic, however, when Administr -
tion leaders learned that a co y
had failleg into the ~hde bf t
pprove or
re-s" ato~rwtnti to Its poasts? President
Johnson far
of StateDean Rusk have" disaster,-'
e ease
Icontended repeatedly that noI
I compromise solution is possible
until the Communists in South
rt of the docwnent'oni Viet Nam are beaten and Red