REVISION OF THE WORKING OUTLINE OF A STUDY ON ECONOMIC CAPABILITIES OF THE SOVIET BLOC TO SUPPORT A GENERAL WAR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00662R000100190034-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 1998
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: December 12, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

 Approved For Release 2000/08/27 : CIA-RDP75-00662R000100190034-7
SICUfIT INFO ATION
ViGC..D.2 (EIC)
12 December 19,q
Page 2
c o Insert in column (C) after the word "production" : " (l July 1952
to 1 July,1953)."
d4 In the stub, insert the words "by type" after each of the
following: ammunitions bombs, rockets, and mines.
In the stub of tiles 2 and 3, substitute "explosive and propel
lams, by type" for "c oke-che n.dcals" (item 9) s
5 It should be noted that some of the inputs in tables 2 and 3
will not be applicable to particular military end-items p For
instance, there are no significant direct inputs of explosives
into the production of tanks,
The word "input" should be understood to mean tv input,
For instance, the input of steel into tanks means the amount
of steel used in' the tank industry to produce tanks, including
scrap wastage at that stage of productions
79 It is recognized that reasonably firm estimates v-11 not be
available for all inputs into a particular end "itom. If a
choice must be .made, it is better to have reasonably firm
octimates of a few inputs for all end-items rather than reason-
ably firm estimates of all inputs for only a few end-items?
Bence attention should be directed first towards inputs about
which most is known or about which most can be found out within
the time period of the first phase of the study,
Inputs of basic materials into end-items, such as steel into
tanks, may include inputs into components of that end-item%
such as steel Into ball bearings in tanks, It is extremely
important that these cases be appropriately footnoted if those
components also appear in the list of inputs (see table 2).
If such cases are not noted, double-counting will occur since
CIA is also estimating inputs into those components. For
instance, CIA will be estimating the amount of steel used in
production of ball bearings, If Inputs of steel into tanks
includes input of steel into the ball bearings in tanks, the
amounts of the ball bearings in tanks mist be clearly indicated
so that appropriate adjustments can be made in the CIA estimate.
9. In the cases of some inputs, it may be less difficult to make
estimates for a group of end-items than for specific end-items,
That is,, an estimate could be entered in table 3 but not in the
table 2 for each of the end-items a There is no objection to
this procedures provided it is minimized and clearly noted in
Ap840PRelease 2000/08/27: CIA-RDP75-00662R000100190034-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/27: CIA-RDP75-00662R000100190034-7
SECURITY IIWORJ ATION
MC-D-2 (EIC)
12 December 1951
Page 3
10? It is important that the reliability and independence of
estimates be indicated, Paragraph IV of the instructions in
W7GC-D-1 suggests several mys of indicating reliabilityy and
independence. Analysts are encouraged to use any other mans
of indicating reliability that seem appropriate
25X1A9a
Secretary., EIC Working Group
on the Economic Capabilities
of the Soviet Dloo
Approved For Release 2000/08/27 : CIA-RDP75-00662R000100190034-7
 Approved Release 20
L~y
/27 : CIA-RD P75-00662 R000100190034-7
SECURITY INFORMATION
25X1A9a
OAD/RR
kbh
Distribution t
2 Addressee
2 - EIC Secret
1. - A/`0 file
ULUAIG R
Approved For Release 2000/08/27 : CIA-RDP75-00662R000100190034-7