USSR PRODUCTION - (A) ANNOUNCM,ENT OF CENTRAL STATISTICAL ADMINSTRATION, USSR; (B) COMPARISON WITH CIA ESTIMATES.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00662R000300020028-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 28, 1998
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: February 21, 1952
• Content Type: MEMO

Pic . t c i l o,o
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SLCUITY III" .7%1_601
F'E9 21 1952
Max F. Millikan
Special Assistant to AD/RP
USSR Production - (a) Announcement of Central Statistical Administra-
tion, USSR; (b) Comparison with CIA?stimates.
1. The following is a su iary of the above subject as well as of
the various questions relative thereto which I discussed Nvith you on several
occasions during the past tv:o weeks. The results of 1951 Stn:te '-Ilan s.a
announced by the Central Statistical Adminl stration (published in '?offictzzr
Tass 23 January 1952, and by FBI S on the 29th) may be surz up by the
following statementsz "The annual plan of gross produc?.,ion in 1961 has
been fulfilled (in ruble value) for the whole of industry by 103.5 ? ero+rnt"
and 'The gross production of the 'hole of the USSR industry in 1751 grew,
as compared with 1950, by 16 percent." No a`)solute production firqures are
shown; however, percentage increases for 1951 over 1950 are sho n for
about 80 items. In this connection, it is elaimi,d that the majority of
the ministries have over-fulfilled their quotas, with an improvement in
quality and cost reductions 3.n come cases. It is a::, .fitted thct certain
of the ~xinistries did not fulfill their plans, notehlryr the M{inistries
oft (Metallurgy), in some individual types of rolled ferrous metals;
(Tieavy Engineering), in steeam engines and turbines; (Machine xl,xilding),
in certain types of chemical equipment and compressors; (ts.gric=lltural
tlaehine Building), in sowing machines and tractors and certain other types
of agricultural machines; (Building 4aterials), in certain types of orment;
and of (Forestry), in the main types of oomnerciaii lumber.
2. It vas also etated that The railroads have room to improtea,"
especially for "exploiting of the railroads." Howevoer, it is claimed that
"the gross plan of goods turnover of railway transport for 1,951 has been
fulfilled as compared with 1950" with an increase of 13 percent. River
transport has been increased st :.larly; anr' motor transport shows a 20
percent increase on the some basis.
Z. Although it is claimed that the supply of bgilding materials has
improved, it is admit.':ed that building progrens has lagged. The further
statement is made in connection with construction. that "the planned tasks
established for 1961 for the building; of large hydrotechnicel construotion
on the Volga, the Don, and the Dneiper have been aucceesf"ri11y fulfilled, as
well as for the b7i'_lding of the mafn. T{xrkemar Canal. N&'&hing is stated
about the extent of completion of these projects,
4. The "gross harvest of grains" Y,ae.s less V-11-m r last yea's (fit-Urine
98 mmt net compared with 100 mat), alt:,hou h the stat;erient is made that
"tie harvest of ;mein food cultures -- :,~heazt and rye a r hi:-her than
in 150." Increased harvests of sugar beets ani cotton were clzaimed.
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5. Output and s 1es of consumer goods and foodstuffs were increased
according to the report by a significant margin. Reduced prices are am--
plnasised and the statement is made that "the new reductions of prices led
to a still further consolidation of the Soviet ruble, to an increase of
its purchasing, power, and to a further increase of sales of gods to the
population." This, together with "gro, th in real b-ai_res of v orkers," is
claimed to have increased their incomes by 10 percent.
Co Capital investment in 1951 was 112 percent as compared to 1?50;
and the grof a national income i reae d by 12 percent during the ams-
7* The number of workers and a leye*s in the national economy in
creased abort 4 percent fraea 1950 to 1g51 a aouiting to 40.13 million, and
the increase in productivity of labor was stated to be 10 percent over
the same period. An Increase of 9 percent in the "total number of specialists
(who have completed higher education or seaeeo -ry technical education)
in the national econom was also claimed."
6. 'The table shows the production of selected items calculated from
the aranounoed percentage increeasee. A comparison of interest with other
data is also presented.
'USSR produa Minn Date on Selected Items
1960
Plan
1950
1950(2) 1951(1)
1961(3)
61
26,4
27.5
2501
51.7
50.5
Potroleum
3604
37.6
51.5
42.0
41.0
Electric Power
Billion Kf
if5.0
90.0
65.0
lot's
99.0
Coal np t
250.0
260.5
262 Mil
2 X30.8
28200
Copper 'thous. at
256.0
520.0
265-500
364,
250.0
Zinc ` 1ho,ui. at
150.0
155.0
155.2
106.0
Synthetic Rubber
184.0
2400
(a) 262,0(4)
295.2
172.0
(b) 160.0
r-rein neat (net)(5)
102.0
10000
92.0
9100
36.6
Aluminum
240.0
257.0
240.0
(6)
2110.0
Aachine Toole
74.'
75.3
7400
(z)
15.0
goo Footnotes on
next pa'q
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Footnotes;
(1)
FBIS - Z9 January 1952 from Moscow Tess 28 January 1952 based an per
cents"e increases over 1950 as announced by the Contral Statistical
Administration attached to TISR Council of !?inistries.
(2) Task Force I.
(2S) Collected data Ecorwosio Ce -hilities ire#nch..
(4) iiyen in Task Force I. Ch*n d to (b) later.
(5)
(6)
o7iet data converted from Biological yield to net by subtracting 20
percent.
No 1951 Soviet fides announced.
In gexrseral the announcement checks the earlier one of Berivs..
9. The 1961 plan appears to be successful in terms of most production
targets and value of production. Potable deficiencies, however, are; (a)
the lag in production of certain types of heavy machinery and equipment
(more particularly sstea&-?sa tugtnes, steam turbines, chemical equi ent, cam-
pressors, tractors (and other type of agricultural machinery)); building
materials and bull~ ink generally; agrioulturs.l pro,luota (particularly
grain) and timbers (b) Increased availability of consuaer goods couli probably
be substantiated for urban areas, but might not even be apparent on a
per capita basis. Standards of living are still very low in con,-*rison
with the tests (a) The alai* about reeduoti?}n in prices and increased pur-
chasing value of the ruble is artificial since retail prides include not
only cost of production but sales and turnover taxes as well, The latter
is several tirms that of the former and even a substantial apparent pries
reduction is insufficient to compensate for the eezhorhitant turnover tax;
and (d) The claimed gain in labor productivity (in Soviet terms of output
per man) s-auld show up considerably lass it' improved and incr.,ased capital
equipment were also considered. 25X1X7
25X1A9a 1Co Coo rents from seerereai generally reliable sozrces (includes
(CI, and have s?.ress -d the point that be%sanusee tractor product on
(as well as other heavy equipment) has fallen short a' plan, and the a oifie
figure on tractors has bera omitted' and mire particularl-r because the
figure cited by Beriya is claimed to be less than last years production,
the difference in opacity is being iiverteed to greatly increased pro-
duction of armaments an weapons. The writer is not in agreorsent ~ i :h this
view, but agrees rather in this connection with 1-219 views and the recent
report by State that the very high increases in Soviet arm produo-~ ion
appears questionable. The increase in budget for
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direct military items of about 17 percent appears to be in line with increased
industrial production generally (16 percent) and the high cost of dev*lop-
sent of now military items in cosparieor.: frith production at &+ eonoe;vsbly
reduce, the total expenditures on production of dirct military itero,s.
Ile The comparison of Soviet production data with those of Opt (in-
cluding pertain changes from 1950 to 1951 in the latter) is considered of
interest and is self explanatory.
25X1A9a
_________'53$ 25X1A9a
Distributions
Address" -
pA ,/1 R - 2
A3ting AD/RR - l
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