REVIEW OF ORR RESEARCH PROGRAM

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6
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RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
8
Document Creation Date: 
November 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
July 9, 1998
Sequence Number: 
11
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
May 8, 1952
Content Type: 
MEMO
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25X1A9a Sanitized - Approved For CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6 A: l'' Assistant Director for Research and Reports f4 M 35 Advisory Board, ORR Review of ORR Research ?roma specific purpose of this review is to determine the present and progress of the 341 (and 342) extension series, and to recommendations regarding them. Another object is to develop the for' an overimail research program. These project* were selected presumably to fill the gape and to strengthen the eamknesses in Task Force I. They are also intended inherently to improve ORRIS position to cope with the major economic intelligence problems relating to national escuri These problems have been spelled out generally in An offiaS,Paper.'' oreover, the guide to oxemodity and industry studieskw points the way to the kind of information required for their Aclution. 2. The projects, however, as Judged by those Which have been *b. Lashed, appear to be deficient in meeting the objectives. The reasons for this situation are discussed below. moreover, the program as a whole has lagged so that the time schedule has little meaning. An estimate of the present status of the program comprising 86 projects As as follows: 11 papers have been published 7 papers are in various stager of review 33 prodects are scheduled for editorial review b; June 1952 5 projects are scheduled for editorial review by 1 Sep- tember 1952 19 projects may be carried over into 1953 3 have been oontinuously delayed 8 have been cancelled 3. This estimate on unfinished projects ie based on statements by the individual concerned to D" and is admittedly optimistic. The current report on status, shown about one4alf of these projects are either in the initial stages or less thwi onemithird complete. The remainder are reportedly better than two-thirds oompleted, but judging from past performance since last JulyirAh regard to postponements, the reported schedules are alwaiioptieistio. The demands of other work, including outside projects such as OC, V1E, and others, may account for these delays; but thin is someehat outside the scope of the present inquiry. (a) The Role of 01111 in Economic Intelligence", 1 August 1951. nee also footnote on pace 3. (b) NAluested check List for Commodity and Industry Studies", 13 December 1951. uki Sanitized - App myreeprememomrtIWITERMITURt - 2R000300130011-6 Sanitized - Approved For Release : CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6 4. Of reter inter ques ion as to ether theee with the time and effort requ The value of most or tlx,reports intelliconee objective'neppeare queetiona reports nade to date in thin serf*, parti specific subjects, are not of a defitivo et, scopeiand in met caeca, lank critIoal aspects. 5. The temptation in such canes in to meindow include large amounts' of extraneous and generally irrelevant material from the intelligence viewpoint to oover up sparseness of information and deficiencies generally. This was a defect of many of the contributions to Task Force Ialthough acne of them wore commendable. In addition to the above general criticism tbo writer pointed out in his critique of Task Force I, specific caeca of unwurranted conclusions and questionable estimates in :Any of the contributions; failure to disclose techniques and methods employed to make estimates. and/or sparseness or use patterns, requirements, and input data generelly. These gape are generally not filled by the present published contributions; except in one notable case rirlim-75Fax be eneraUy s ted as foreign to national security so (0.n., dottrinstiori of the economic and vulnerabilities of the soviet Bloc) and more formally to quote the criteria in the office paper referred tot "(1) to estimate the of 2osnible present or future oilitary or other tnreata to curse our allies (2) to eatimate the theiracter and present or futxxe nilitary or other 'eate,... cs.U.nating. within the range of to possible, the or any other poteetial nnmy.....(4'd to help pe we can do to reduce possibly or probable :unitary ot other airing an args econonic cavabilities to carry tram ou aaaist in eatimatieg thy probalAe development of the relative etrencths of the 1-41st and the 1;eat over to next few :mare f nSrZrro-atilitiee are avoided." (6) of these deficiencies in the 341 iicri arcsvciVicaily, briefly, pointed out in Appendix I. 14, PuTS (e) This publication on ort. in aircraft production represents a basic ntudy of tha type referred a in the preeent report under 4econmendetionS. (2) Sanitized - Approved For Release : CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6 Sanitized 1"Approveelltffligaw : CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6 eases* however* mainly because of the motors of the of the*, soecifie eritioisms do motappar. A the projsets leads one to believe that there Vail ?oint of good remosrch direction in their at the program as o whole was not conceived ohlsotive. ?MU* nature of the program ore could jkatifiably draw the conclusion the analyst was free to choose his sutdectl The result is that the procrem is m s. It is, of cooroe* recognisod as good well as from the standpoint of allowed some freedom for collocation. at 811 times to wake su ggestions ing the ectual work with logioltincs tion of the promos ea a whole smelt be loft to more is even mos* desirabls la facets and aspects* them obj of:leers of the nature Sanitized -Approved For Release : CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6 Sanitized - Approved -00662R000300130011-6 infornation. The compilation of hese basic data (coverthg a variet7 of industries end commodities with respect to the Soviet Plot on a current basis as well as for the past, and for future projection* must be a continuing process. c. It is proposed that the efforts now expended on series 351 and 3.52 be directed to making basic etudies (to be used in connection with all of the producteof (ER) Li incorporating all of the information relating to the aeparate fields of interest Into these basic (studies. This proaeclure would be along the lines of that relating to wtrolaust4) and coal in which all of the 3.51 series () 011 coal and 5 on petroleum) have been combined into one 3-52 project for each* virtually constituting be audios. When those reports are completed a careful combing of the naps of naterialwould iertait pdblication of definitive reports. d. The specific recoomendations sheen in Ippendiz I.A on aU of the 3.51 and 3.52 eerie. project** generally follow this principle except in some special cases. It may also be found desirable to oodbine them in a somewhat different manner (e.g., two basic reports ...one for the USSR and one for the Satellites especially where more information is available on one urea than on the other. Alternatively, a somewhat different combination of the commodities. Even this presentation will still preserve the advantages of the procedure. al. Appendix 1.1% is included for completeness and to illustrate the other activities of ChR and shows leek Force 1 contributions. fb' f., 'The following broad cleaefication of the economy (in line with division interests) is shown as a guide for the basic studies. (a) The baaic studies on petrolo stem from Ora 2!I!9, Ill31 and The ,:unitions toerd Project (711481-11.) These were done in the latter 2art of 1949 and during 1950 under the writer's direction and from the beginning 'were designed to be basic and definitive reports. (b) For a detailed and corebill7worked out Industrial Classification fton which ddittooal industries and commodities may be selected, reference is made to the list ace=panying memo from the MI, Industrial claosiriostion Comittee dated 21 &prtl 1952. The major groups of this classification is shown in Appendix TI. These in turn are broken down into minor groups. ('4) Sanitized - Approved For Release : CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6 Sanitized - Approved For Release : CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6 (1) 1.ateria1s1 (a) Ferro%4 metals and minerals and steel Industries; forro-alloys; etc. (b) Non-Xerrous metals and minerals (c) Nonseetallic minerals (d) :3olid fuels -- coals etc. (e) Chemicals tiLlio and apecial selected Ilroducts4 aemical industry Cr) 'Art.iroloum 2roduction; ref..ting; transportation; special products (z) Food and acricvlture (forestry and tiber); ains; meats; livestock; cotton; woel; etc. (h) pecta1 Exlrodities and consumers goods (2) it? (a) .ceapons (b) Vunitions (c) Arcreft (d) nhipbuilding and Naval equipment (a) production equipment and machinery (including apacialized industrial equipment) (f) chine tools (g) Construction equipment and machinery (h) Mining equipment and machinery (i) Agricultural eqeipeent and madhinery (3) Transportation equipment and machinery (k) Uectrical equipment and electronics (1) capita goods generally (3) (L) }toned? Oervicess Transportetion water construction Cormunications Trade and finwce Labor and -!enpower 71ectric power Loonomic orgenirationa and proernms (a) (a; rcynomic (b) }canonic 141013101.91 methode, concepts, techniques (c) ICanonic surveys (a) tLeports by this Div 'iechniquea nd Uethods, and apocial reports as reVA 1;ial Sanitized Ner-----4 rr Pmanqp ? CIA-RDp75-00662R000300130011-6 Sanitized - Approved For Release : CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6 (5) 4tonal tp,ports fare, control, tIrogreoe intervals to how s Area Aroal.-,g (1,) nonmioviet areas, sources. c programa economic strat sis group should be made at ?,,r operations and results. ( ) infomation OI th or outside support (7) Definit ve reports: (a) then the LASie itudieo are completed t is proposed that they be made the basie of definitive reports on various Industries and cormodities and other segments of the economies of the various countries comprising the Soviet Bloc. These definitive reports rill be among the major contributions of 04h. For illuetrative purposes the broad subjects shorn in connettion with the banjo stodies (in line eith division interests generally) mey be considered also for definitive reports.'Subdivisions of theee broader cetegorlee may e140 be considered (on a limited basis and by special approval) for definitive reports depending on whether the induetries or commodities are of A critical oature (it short supply) or possess some other uniqoe ooerecter from the intelligence viewpoint, or Lave been especially requested. These possible eub? divtaione maybe illustretedt for example, by careful selector from the list of branch projects (b) The definitivv report should be e concise and should develop the inforcation ar aVU brief introduction with regard to hiu orr&TIzation ana tech:410a of industry. The report as well a- the basic study should include informs.. tion ont TiJ Z'11 na].yv1 is included t mom it ap ars to ouLject from the viewpoint of cotipetent correlators an have the neceesary substantive knowledge. The oontribu (;Tobable Dove ents in 'eastern Germen Throu-h the rc*nts in Iresp Th, program of the Board of .4ational ittimates is on intentions and Ce9abilitits and Soviet ' part of the5FOgram is direcUa tr5-Ah norweCommunist areas. neelected who IL-50 2...25e)) iUustrates phasis of the 1952 t of 9040unist sidereal velopments in Sanitized - Apipper-A r'^'^^-- ? r1AIRDP75-00662R000300130011-6 Sanitized - Approved For Release : CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6 ((1)) Production facilities and resources (both existing and convertible); ((2)) Eupplies includine outputs and production capacities, stockpiles, inventories, reserves; ((3)) Inputs and input receirements; (04) Vs* pattern and use requirement, substi. tutees and ? ((5)) Wherever possible a sumaary analysie , balancing supply, use pattern aW, use requirements .01, (o) Techniques and methods employed in arrivise7 at the results reported should be clearly stated in the Appendix. Per specific suggest:Lone reference is mad* to the check list for commodity and industry studiea dated 13 December 1951 shown here in Appendix UI. Detailed breakdowns of the information desired of various areas, industries, and oommodities are preseTUei ale? as sugklreAons in 4pendix (d) The prep of the definitive report from the mass of data in the basic study is the job of one who understands the field, and has the knack of presenting technics' matter in a clear and concise manner. pacific Recommendations on Reporting: The following re made to eystematise and expedite reporting of Comprehensive reports on the basic studies ehould be by 1 tApteekmr. These are to be working report Y and in general the sugrestad ebeck list of 13 Deameber 1951. contain all infarsatton pertinent, to the subject =genes viewpoint. 1c introduction containing genra3. istortesl and technological, information should be cut to the minimums ('echnolonical and ancyciopedir matter whiIh does not have 4 direct bearing on the intelligence problem should not be included.) A complete literature search (pertinent to tbe'intelIigenne aspects at a subject and area) should be made. This should include such material as Soviet Tir-I.IMIZagrer?ieor balancing supplies (particularly P rodue.:, ann imports) against uee pattern weir:Puente found useful in I14.181 with respect to selected items (steel, petroleum, aluminum, electric power' and profesLional terlInitia1 met:power) for broad oetegories of tte economy includirv agriculture, transportation, industry. (a a whole), domestic Use And the .military. rs this balance rough estimates of auppliwi and defici a were determined. 1111141111/441MI (7) Sanitized - Approved For Release : CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6 Sanitized - Appr DIIP#5-00662R000300130011-6 25X1A5a1 (4) Formal reports made as completed* estimates should (5) Continual reporting is to be rna4m to the Iatiz*tes File (Economic Analysis 1.1ivisimn) an all r data ard a3.3. changes in cid data as loll as on methods end techniques employed in arriving at the results* This 'sill particularly include all changes contemplated for use in reports arising from Xenia reports. All related cr interdependent estimates must be simultaneously revised to oreeerve consistency where revisions are made* The above discussion and recommendations rola of ORA beeeerah krocren and furnishes the basis fo to current activities, additional report (Pert ) is in progress Which relates to eerLain weaknesses in organisation, nersonnel and hoc's. These result in conflieting estimate, and are otherwise Imal arranged and soundly conceived products and such as The Handbook, N1144 NIF0.44, JIG Capabilities The meritorious technignes propeeed by the economie also Windt...pod by these inherited infirmities, Mess iU to dimeuseed and illmetavited. There is no psneees and to some extent it is inherent in the nature of a *Woe of substantive cheeks mash puts the burden end meountabilltylq his superiors we ? would to far iA helping to remedy the 25X1A9a 25X1A9a Sanitized - Approved For Release : CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6