REVIEW OF ORR RESEARCH PROGRAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00662R000300130011-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 9, 1998
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: May 8, 1952
• Content Type: MEMO

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Assistant Director for Research and Reports f4 M 35
Advisory Board, ORR
Review of ORR Research ?roma
specific purpose of this review is to determine the present
and progress of the 341 (and 342) extension series, and to
recommendations regarding them. Another object is to develop the
for' an overimail research program. These project* were selected
presumably to fill the gape and to strengthen the eamknesses in Task
Force I. They are also intended inherently to improve ORRIS position
to cope with the major economic intelligence problems relating to
national escuri These problems have been spelled out generally in
An offiaS,Paper.'' oreover, the guide to oxemodity and industry
studieskw points the way to the kind of information required for their
Aclution.
2. The projects, however, as Judged by those Which have been *b.
Lashed, appear to be deficient in meeting the objectives. The reasons
for this situation are discussed below. moreover, the program as a whole
has lagged so that the time schedule has little meaning. An estimate of
the present status of the program comprising 86 projects As as follows:
11 papers have been published
7 papers are in various stager of review
33 prodects are scheduled for editorial review b; June 1952
5 projects are scheduled for editorial review by 1 Sep-
tember 1952
19 projects may be carried over into 1953
3 have been oontinuously delayed
8 have been cancelled
3. This estimate on unfinished projects ie based on statements
by the individual concerned to D" and is admittedly optimistic. The
current report on status, shown about one4alf of these projects are
either in the initial stages or less thwi onemithird complete. The
remainder are reportedly better than two-thirds oompleted, but judging
from past performance since last JulyirAh regard to postponements, the
reported schedules are alwaiioptieistio. The demands of other work,
including outside projects such as OC, V1E, and others, may account
for these delays; but thin is someehat outside the scope of the present
inquiry.
(a) The Role of 01111 in Economic Intelligence", 1 August 1951. nee also
footnote on pace 3.
(b) NAluested check List for Commodity and Industry Studies", 13 December
1951.
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4. Of reter inter
ques ion as to ether theee
with the time and effort requ
The value of most or tlx,reports
intelliconee objective'neppeare queetiona
reports nade to date in thin serf*, parti
specific subjects, are not of a defitivo et,
scopeiand in met caeca, lank critIoal aspects.
5. The temptation in such canes in to meindow
include large amounts' of extraneous and generally irrelevant material
from the intelligence viewpoint to oover up sparseness of information
and deficiencies generally. This was a defect of many of the contributions
to Task Force Ialthough acne of them wore commendable. In addition to
the above general criticism tbo writer pointed out in his critique of
Task Force I, specific caeca of unwurranted conclusions and questionable
estimates in :Any of the contributions; failure to disclose techniques
and methods employed to make estimates. and/or sparseness or use patterns,
requirements, and input data generelly. These gape are generally not
filled by the present published contributions; except in one notable case
rirlim-75Fax be eneraUy s ted as foreign
to national security so (0.n., dottrinstiori of the economic
and vulnerabilities of the soviet Bloc) and more formally to quote the
criteria in the office paper referred tot "(1) to estimate the
of 2osnible present or future oilitary or other tnreata to curse
our allies (2) to eatimate the theiracter and
present or futxxe nilitary or other 'eate,...
cs.U.nating. within the range of to possible, the
or any other poteetial nnmy.....(4'd to help pe
we can do to reduce possibly or probable :unitary ot other
airing an args econonic cavabilities to carry tram ou
aaaist in eatimatieg thy probalAe development of the relative etrencths
of the 1-41st and the 1;eat over to next few :mare f nSrZrro-atilitiee
are avoided."
(6) of these deficiencies in the 341 iicri arcsvciVicaily,
briefly, pointed out in Appendix I.
14, PuTS
(e) This publication on ort. in aircraft production represents a basic
ntudy of tha type referred a in the preeent report under 4econmendetionS.
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eases* however* mainly because of the motors of the
of the*, soecifie eritioisms do motappar.
A the projsets leads one to believe that there Vail
?oint of good remosrch direction in their
at the program as o whole was not conceived
ohlsotive. ?MU* nature of the program
ore could jkatifiably draw the conclusion
the analyst was free to choose his sutdectl
The result is that the procrem is m
s. It is, of cooroe* recognisod as good
well as from the standpoint of
allowed some freedom for collocation.
at 811 times to wake su ggestions
ing the ectual work with logioltincs
tion of the promos ea a whole
smelt be loft to more
is even mos* desirabls la
facets and aspects* them
obj
of:leers
of the nature
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infornation. The compilation of hese basic data (coverthg a
variet7 of industries end commodities with respect to the Soviet
Plot on a current basis as well as for the past, and for future
projection* must be a continuing process.
c. It is proposed that the efforts now expended on series
351 and 3.52 be directed to making basic etudies (to be used in
connection with all of the producteof (ER) Li incorporating all
of the information relating to the aeparate fields of interest
Into these basic (studies. This proaeclure would be along the
lines of that relating to wtrolaust4) and coal in which all of
the 3.51 series () 011 coal and 5 on petroleum) have been combined
into one 3-52 project for each* virtually constituting be
audios. When those reports are completed a careful combing of
the naps of naterialwould iertait pdblication of definitive
reports.
d. The specific recoomendations sheen in Ippendiz I.A on
aU of the 3.51 and 3.52 eerie. project** generally follow this
principle except in some special cases. It may also be found
desirable to oodbine them in a somewhat different manner (e.g.,
two basic reports ...one for the USSR and one for the Satellites
especially where more information is available on one urea than on
the other. Alternatively, a somewhat different combination of the
commodities. Even this presentation will still preserve the
advantages of the procedure.
al. Appendix 1.1% is included for completeness and to illustrate
the other activities of ChR and shows leek Force 1 contributions.
fb'
f., 'The following broad cleaefication of the economy (in
line with division interests) is shown as a guide for the basic
studies.
(a) The baaic studies on petrolo stem from Ora 2!I!9, Ill31 and
The ,:unitions toerd Project (711481-11.) These were done in the latter
2art of 1949 and during 1950 under the writer's direction and from
the beginning 'were designed to be basic and definitive reports.
(b) For a detailed and corebill7worked out Industrial Classification
fton which ddittooal industries and commodities may be selected,
reference is made to the list ace=panying memo from the MI, Industrial
claosiriostion Comittee dated 21 &prtl 1952. The major groups of
this classification is shown in Appendix TI. These in turn are broken
down into minor groups.
('4)
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(1) 1.ateria1s1
(a) Ferro%4 metals and minerals and steel Industries;
forro-alloys; etc.
(b) Non-Xerrous metals and minerals
(c) Nonseetallic minerals
(d) :3olid fuels -- coals etc.
(e) Chemicals tiLlio and apecial selected Ilroducts4
aemical industry
Cr) 'Art.iroloum 2roduction; ref..ting; transportation;
special products
(z) Food and acricvlture (forestry and tiber); ains;
meats; livestock; cotton; woel; etc.
(h) pecta1 Exlrodities and consumers goods
(2) it?
(a) .ceapons
(b) Vunitions
(c) Arcreft
(d) nhipbuilding and Naval equipment
(a) production equipment and machinery (including apacialized
industrial equipment)
(f) chine tools
(g) Construction equipment and machinery
(h) Mining equipment and machinery
(i) Agricultural eqeipeent and madhinery
(3) Transportation equipment and machinery
(k) Uectrical equipment and electronics
(1) capita goods generally
(3)
(L)
}toned? Oervicess
Transportetion water
construction
Cormunications
Trade and finwce
Labor and -!enpower
71ectric power
Loonomic orgenirationa and proernms
(a)
(a; rcynomic
(b) }canonic 141013101.91 methode, concepts, techniques
(c) ICanonic surveys
(a) tLeports by this Div
'iechniquea nd Uethods,
and apocial reports as reVA
1;ial
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(5) 4tonal tp,ports fare,
control,
tIrogreoe
intervals to how s
Area Aroal.-,g
(1,)
nonmioviet areas,
sources.
c programa economic strat
sis group should be made at
?,,r operations and results.
( )
infomation OI th
or outside support
(7) Definit ve reports:
(a) then the LASie itudieo are completed t is
proposed that they be made the basie of definitive reports
on various Industries and cormodities and other segments
of the economies of the various countries comprising the
Soviet Bloc. These definitive reports rill be among the
major contributions of 04h. For illuetrative purposes
the broad subjects shorn in connettion with the banjo
stodies (in line eith division interests generally) mey
be considered also for definitive reports.'Subdivisions
of theee broader cetegorlee may e140 be considered (on a
limited basis and by special approval) for definitive
reports depending on whether the induetries or commodities
are of A critical oature (it short supply) or possess some
other uniqoe ooerecter from the intelligence viewpoint,
or Lave been especially requested. These possible eub?
divtaione maybe illustretedt for example, by careful
selector from the list of branch projects
(b) The definitivv report should be e
concise and should develop the inforcation ar
aVU brief introduction with regard to hiu
orr&TIzation ana tech:410a of industry. The
report as well a- the basic study should include informs..
tion ont
TiJ Z'11 na].yv1 is included t mom it ap ars to
ouLject from the viewpoint of cotipetent correlators an
have the neceesary substantive knowledge. The oontribu
(;Tobable Dove ents in 'eastern Germen Throu-h
the rc*nts in Iresp Th,
program of the Board of .4ational ittimates is on
intentions and Ce9abilitits and Soviet '
part of the5FOgram is direcUa tr5-Ah
norweCommunist areas.
neelected
who
IL-50
2...25e)) iUustrates
phasis of the 1952
t of 9040unist
sidereal
velopments in
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((1)) Production facilities and resources
(both existing and convertible);
((2)) Eupplies includine outputs and production
capacities, stockpiles, inventories, reserves;
((3)) Inputs and input receirements;
(04) Vs* pattern and use requirement, substi.
tutees and
? ((5)) Wherever possible a sumaary analysie ,
balancing supply, use pattern aW, use requirements .01,
(o) Techniques and methods employed in arrivise7 at
the results reported should be clearly stated in the Appendix.
Per specific suggest:Lone reference is mad* to the check
list for commodity and industry studiea dated 13 December 1951
shown here in Appendix UI. Detailed breakdowns of the
information desired of various areas, industries, and
oommodities are preseTUei ale? as sugklreAons in 4pendix
(d) The prep of the definitive report from
the mass of data in the basic study is the job of one
who understands the field, and has the knack of presenting
technics' matter in a clear and concise manner.
pacific Recommendations on Reporting: The following
re made to eystematise and expedite reporting of
Comprehensive reports on the basic studies ehould be
by 1 tApteekmr. These are to be working report Y and
in general the sugrestad ebeck list of 13 Deameber 1951.
contain all infarsatton pertinent, to the subject
=genes viewpoint. 1c introduction containing
genra3. istortesl and technological, information should be
cut to the minimums ('echnolonical and ancyciopedir matter
whiIh does not have 4 direct bearing on the intelligence
problem should not be included.) A complete literature search
(pertinent to tbe'intelIigenne aspects at a subject and area)
should be made. This should include such material as Soviet
Tir-I.IMIZagrer?ieor balancing supplies (particularly P
rodue.:, ann imports)
against uee pattern weir:Puente found useful in I14.181 with respect to
selected items (steel, petroleum, aluminum, electric power' and profesLional
terlInitia1 met:power) for broad oetegories of tte economy includirv agriculture,
transportation, industry. (a a whole), domestic Use And the .military. rs
this balance rough estimates of auppliwi and defici a were determined.
1111141111/441MI
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(4) Formal reports
made as completed*
estimates should
(5) Continual reporting is to be rna4m to the Iatiz*tes
File (Economic Analysis 1.1ivisimn) an all r data ard a3.3.
changes in cid data as loll as on methods end techniques
employed in arriving at the results* This 'sill particularly
include all changes contemplated for use in reports arising
from Xenia reports. All related cr interdependent estimates
must be simultaneously revised to oreeerve consistency where
revisions are made*
The above discussion and recommendations rola
of ORA beeeerah krocren and furnishes the basis fo
to current activities,
additional report (Pert ) is in progress Which relates
to eerLain weaknesses in organisation, nersonnel and
hoc's. These result in conflieting estimate, and are
otherwise Imal arranged and soundly conceived products and
such as The Handbook, N1144 NIF0.44, JIG Capabilities
The meritorious technignes propeeed by the economie
also Windt...pod by these inherited infirmities, Mess
iU to dimeuseed and illmetavited. There is no psneees
and to some extent it is inherent in the nature of
a *Woe of substantive cheeks mash puts the burden
end meountabilltylq his superiors we
? would to far iA helping to remedy the
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