COMMENTS ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75B00514R000100230003-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 22, 2002
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: September 5, 1972
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2003/03/28 : CIA-RDP75B0~,4J2000100230003-8
[OR OFFIG!"Al_ U" Y
L EMCEMDI FOR: Chief, Physics-Chemistry Division/010
SUBJECT:
subject studies aid also some names of US experts in
related fields as you requested
Attachment: a/s
Distribution:
Orig. & 1 - addressee
2 - PSED/SI
3 - PSB/PSED/SI
OSI/PSED/PSBJ
`4L_i 5
Physical Science,: .,rid
Engineering Divis is k/S I
(1 Sep 72)
DD/S&i
FILE COPY
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Co ents on Dr. flrowning's StuC ies, O 3377--?B and 4M&_70
The proposition, expounded by Dr. Browning, that tidal
forces may trirgor large earthquakes and associated phen:nsamena
such as volcanoes is interesting. Presuming that his
statistical analysis of large earthquake occurrences is
correct, it would be hard to deny that there appears to be
tore causal effect between tidal forces and very large
earthquakes. The discovery that noonquakes are associated
with tidal forces also tends to strengthen this conclusion.
Furthermore, it seems logical that these forces easily
could cause a sudden energy release in an area where the
stress has built up to a large value.
On the negative side, some of the earthquake data used
by Dr. Browning may be somewhat questionable. His data for
the 20th century are based on earthquakes having magnitudes
greater than 8 on the Richter scale. This is a legitimate
way to proceed, but it provided him with only 8 data pcizats
and this is too small a sample to confidently establish
any periodicities. The remainder of the earthquake data
used apparently was based an number of deaths caused by
the quake (the Richter scale was not devised until this
century). This would introduce a bias into the data because
the number of deaths obviously is dependent on the popuj.ution
density of the area where the earthquake occurs, as well as
on the depth at which it occurs. As an example, the two
greatest earthquakes in history in this country were in
Missouri and South Carolina but these are not nearly so
famous as the lesser magnitude San Franciso earthquake
which caused more deaths because of the higher populatiou density.
The other section of the report in which Dr. Browning
forecasts a severe drought at the end of this decade is based
to a certain extent on the first analysis. Since earthquakes
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and volcanoes are related, it can be stated that vo:teafiic
eruptions often occur in the same tine frame as cartY.r.t d; a .
When major volcanic erur tious occur, onough dust is c ;~ _ sc.t d
in the stratosphere to cau e a dre?p in average tempera.' are.
of the earth. According to his analysis a peak in wte
curve of tidal variations (based on sun-earth-moon pca .ticns)
is approaching. Dr. Browning uses this as one input tt
his forecast of a severe drought for the latter part ox this
decade. A second input into the forecast is based upcn? a
periodicity related to the sunspot cycle--according to his
analysis ? a dry period in this cycle also Is approaebic, .
Finally, from a paleoclimatological aspect, Dr. Drowniu'r.
has found that we may be approaching the drought portic a
of this very long period cycle. Since we are approachl r a
dry cycle in all of the aspects considered, Dr. flrowuin?
believes that we may be faced with a catastrophic perica
characterized by severe drought and famine.
That volcanoce can have an effect on the earth's weather
and climate (particularly temperature) is fairly well a -c:e 3ted;
the magnitude of the effect has not been established, h ~rever.
The other two inputs used by Dr. Frowning are undoubtu..3r ly
less well established and more controversial; neverthl ,&;s ,
the cyclical nature of weather and climate cannot be csi. .u :ed.
The cycles established by Dr. Browning in his analysis