IM-85

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP78-01617A000200260002-6
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
8
Document Creation Date: 
November 16, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 18, 1998
Sequence Number: 
2
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
November 18, 1948
Content Type: 
IM
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP78-01617A000200260002-6.pdf505.33 KB
Body: 
Approved For Release 2090/05/23: CIA-RDEN-01617A000200 02-6 ISO- WTI. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 18 November 19 48 ,85 CIA COML;FNTS ON SANACC SUB=CU:~SMITTEE NEAIVMIDDLE EAST "APPRAISAL OF U.S, ;FILITAEIY, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN SOUTH ASIA" General Comments This is an excellent presentation of vjhat has been up to now a much neglected subject, The basic recomendation, for a thoroughgoing study of US objectives in the South Asia region and of the specific means which can be used for their accomplishment,, is a sound one, though it should be pointed out that the close political) econoi:iic$ and geographic relationshigewhich exist between components of the South Asia region and the countries to the east make it important that such a study be integrated with a similar consideration of the Southeast Asia region, Burma, in particular, is so closely related to the other countries of Southeast Asia (especially Siam, Indochina, and Indonesia) as to make a South Asia regional concept including Burma a sometimes rather artificial one. In addition to its comments on various individual passages of the paper (listed below under "Specific Comients' s CIA feels that the 25X6Afollawing general comments are pertinenti Qd ~ 10 - HA N aF ti 7 . "'LP SS, Fli~ Approved For Release 2000/05/23 Cl 1617AO64266 ~~'~OY~~- F;R 70-2 Approved For Release 200q/05/23 : CIA-RDP78-01617A0002002 00 2-6 2. overemphasis of military aspects. While it is recognized that the military aspects of aid to southern Asia are important, it is believed that the report over- emphasizes the role of military aid as distinguished from economic and educational assistance. The basic requirement of the countries of southern Asia, once law and order have been established, is the develop- ment of economic stability. This stability cannot be achieved primari: y through the development of the armed forces (which, moreover, are not expected, except in the case of India, to play a large part in defense against a major power), on the other hand, it is possible that economic stability can be brought closer through ITS-supported efforts to increase industrial production, introduce more efficient methods of agriculture,, and increase the standard of living; such US help and cooperation would do much to strengthen South Asian friendship for the US and its people. Consequently, it is considered that an intelligent, integrated program Approved For Release 2000/05/23 : 4L U1 ?&01617A000200260002-6 Approved For Release 2Q0005/23 : CIA-RDP789I8?7A0002002W2-6 for economic aid and technical information slaoa>.ld take precede,'":ce uver-?-- Or at least be Instituted concurr nLLl ;r wi't; a--a.ny r's.z n :" "or military assistance, : Intra. r e p aonal- conillcts, `,raiile th3 raper rec 1,1ze that; 1o :a.1 c s :l a t au d to the problem of i3OW to extend. 15 aids, and aid, `.So i.tit Asian countries I t. do ti t7 _L T:i J 173 "r:X E hf? t?T '1". o of the #i L :J ono 1iu A3: sh~iat .a.nn.s to t'ie s w or`?.' i over'nmcrt s t* 1t } t'1. 1,7.f''[' 70.3,';,/ only create mo;v nphenv :..., I't? tiw 1 rno:p,-J:?ad ~':~' _St,'tY2 aY; an...a 'N. ?sae xJ..%_it+c . ` 4 ..:: 7lL Jr en Would undoubtedly b use:". in t E- t- to s t~rUirgIs Y.ls,' hmir., Likewise arms s ut r:.. shed to Af's;h. ia:i.s tali border disnutes with Pakistan-. B % sasv)pl y aid Y^.5 L ,ti:t-" 7 o e en miLLit%iry equipmu?nt to any of these 'couritr.#ts at.. j: es . nt Vuf,p- US might easily Lain the en,t:'.t,v or one or none of other ;+. r.:i tits con+ erncc n QnIy after some sen;bl.ance of accord hi.'. i such e ttl?eTi?onts mi.4ht he a...l T1liTh Pi coo ;?( b;1 ttLC U") 3_ the ,:ecn r".P.'''~t forcee, of ti. e sO''' - hey. o rt L'r i' a r :ror South Asia and in dJ ~.=:4::tT?2 ~: }34:'.'_t" .kt.ti;.~l .-~'TtiE'C'?~`..ii .,"~ r,,. t".~y..M1?.-.:,C1' e'~;`?. fl"ip in nner in 't7~.ch &,j YJa"f tbe ix addition to guard- i p i t.3.r s cha rc r> c _Crfj Approved For Release 2000/05/23: 01617A000200260002-6 Approved For Release 2/05/23: CIA-RDP78070b2002 0( 2-6 'M go .0 W& VMW, 110P, the US must take into account the fact that the cress of tha region Irequently voices fear of US G"doilar7aggression.11 the US seeks domination through economic infi.lt.ra- a on:, This sear unchecked, may encourage the governments of South Asia a to adopt polio, of political neutrality and independent industrial de?~relonment vithout foreign assistance, or even to accept Soviet ass1& tanoe? It ii" there- fore recommended that the problem of presenting en, uid prof rammboth through diplomacy and through accompanying education c nd propaganda directed at the population at large,, be seriously and carefully considered There is a strong possibility that a US aid program would dafeat its own purposes if accompanied by requests for c:xteri; ? ve concessions or the injudicious assumption that the countries r?eceivIrtg US aid would automatically follow all the dictates of US foreign policy, Industrial War Potential,, The potential contributions which the South f,.sian countries can make to an fast-West conflict are of tremendous significance and are recognized as such by the paper,, However, it might be appropriate to inject a note of caution when considering India us industrial potentia: for war,, particularly now that the British have withdrawn, "'hale India has established a few modern industries (notably : teel) and has developed competent technicians and skilled laborers in those industries$ India a?>annot, without considerable material and technjeel aid from the out:r dec set up and operate new and complicated precision eiuip;rnerAt to turn 01 it the instruments needed for modern war0 The speed with which and the extent to which India could aid the West would depend auuon Indians Approved For Release 2000/05/23 : C 8-0l617A000200260002-6 Approved For Release 20Q 0/ 5/23: CIA-RDP78-01 020026Q0-6 oft .0 WAmpso Now willingness to enter such a war and to accept I ester guidance. ability of Ind-Laos population to contribute will rest in part on the extent to which social and economic improvements have been achieved over and above the current status, Other South Asian count.ries JAck sufficient acquaintance with industry and basis, induct - ai installation to be able to contribute significantly on this level,., Approved For Release 2000/05/23:4 11617A000200260002-6 Approved For Release 200, 5/23 : CIA-RDP78?000200260-6 A% MW 0- V& I. Page 4, lines 7-9t These lines are misleading. Soviet influence has been and continues to be negligible in Afgha.stano 2. Page 6, lines 3.4.-15: The phrase "which may well invite Soviet claims to Afghan territory" should be deleted. This assumption does not follow from the previously presented facto nor is it in accord with the fact that in October 1948, after two ye. ,rs of work on the part of the !fghan-Soviet Border Commission, both governments accepted its recommendations 0 . 3. Page 6, par,, 2: In the case of Bwaa this situation (ioe. Political upheaval) is also due to ineptitude, the trend toward nationalization, and the desire to eliminate foreign influence,, 4* Page S, lines 8-9s Despite reports of a possible "shift in' i a jor Kremlin efforts toward the East" CIA on the basis of its current analysis of Soviet activity does not believe such a shift has occurred. 5. Page 8, per. 2: CIA has one report from a "generally reliable" source that Burma has requested arms from Czechoslovakia after being turned down by the US. This may be added to the list of Soviet and Satellite agreements noted 6e Page C, par. 2: CIA has no reports which confirm the existence of a Cominform branch for Southeast Asia. It is preeimaeci, however, that the USSR 3s exerting its influence in Southeast Asia throuc?h its Legation in Bangkok and its E nbasny in Lxliao 7 Page 10: Im , n e of South Asia to US flationa1 t,; The contribution of this area to the European recovery program might be stressed as adverse conditions in this area could directly retard.Westem Europe recovery. 8. Page 12, line 2t CIA considers "upwards of 20,,000 ,,000 recruits" as too optimistic. Met of the inhabitants of South Asia are unsuited for active service in a modern army, 9. Page 14, Table: The following corrections and additions shoed be made. Cadmium is not available in Burma. Tungsten is available in Bum a Rubber is available in Csylon. India is the world's largest producer of nhellaa. Approved For Release 2000/05/23 : C BAR6-S1617A000200260002-6 SPECTFIC_ UMS Approved For Release 2/05/23 : CIA-RDP78- A0002002 002-6 10. Page 15, par0 2, line 1s This section is .mport:xnt and could be emphasized mores For a .mple, Burma's rice is absolutely neceseary to Ceylon, India, and x3 , 110 Page 16, par. 2, line 7t UK investments in Btu - a have little value at the moment o 12. Page 17, par. 3, lines 3-9z Sentence;. r ght be changed to reads primitive methods of production, population pre,-aeu ve, waste and. un- economical use of laand, however, have prevented the area from becoming self-sufficient in :food. Production may be I e&ie'- to the polnt. of self-sufficiency by the application. of modern technology pari4onlax lyy with respect to the use of chemical ferti.1izere, iiaectlcides and improved varieties of seed, by the completion of pi.,oposedd ' rIgati on projects, and more effeetly d3.stribut.on etc. .13. Page 18, line 5t Legmaes should be added to the lit of foods. 14. Page 18, line 13 t It might be noted that nar r of the items listed are on the US list of strategic materials. 15. Page 19, Minerals and) ..~ a It should be noted that the known coking coal reserves are very limited - not more than a nifty yua supply at the present rate of consumption. 16. Page 20, line 8t Suggest the phrase "milt Lary purposes" rather than "munitions purposes" to represent the wide variety of uses for mica in warfare. 17. Page 20, line 16t in connection with kyanite it might be stated M the world's principal source of strategist grades that India hU be of kyanite. An important new source of kyanite is being developed and exploited in Kenyan 18. Page 20, lines 18--21: "Deposits" would be mo.-:e accurate than "important sources." "Tantalite col umhite" should be added.. to _ 1,he li and "phosphorus" changed to "phosphates." Approved For Release 2000/05/23: W01-01617AO002CO0260002-6 Approved For Release 205/23 : CIA_RDP78-016 0260-6 19. Page 20, lines 28-x30 A.k 4Laa loot ? he largest producer of wolfram; it was second only to China. Burma stood e j g j thn (rot fifth) in world tin production. It might also be noted that much of Burma remains to be explored for minerals 20, Page 21, 1etrleuttss Burma's petroleum was of p-a. ticular value to India. However, it is expected that it will be a number of. years before Burma's oil fields are rehabilitated and axtaanded. 21. Page 21. par, 21 Petroleum, line 13: Suggest "(330,082 bar-role in 1937)" be changed to "(300,000 barrels in 19/)". Line 16, suggest "85,000,000 gallons (over 3,000,000 barrels)" br, changed to "aboard 2,430,000 barrels", Linea 2.1-22, suggest "276,000,000 gallons (about 10,650,,000 barrels)" be changed to "about 8,000.,000 barrels", 22. Page 23, lines 11.12: Present steel production is approximately one million tons per year; obsolescence of squ "_pmeent, labor troubles, and transport difficulties are limiting factors, 23r Page 25, mar. 5t The rlp+.D given on the Bangalore airplane "aotory is misleading. Currently t! c factory produces s :either engines nor air- craft; it does a limited anount of assembly arc` repair v ork, 24. Page 26, par. 4 : Appreciable economic k 'o .,Tess in J3unma YeL11 delayed until law and order care' ntored., 25. Page 31, P .l tad for s. II sa's ground forces are closer to 40,000, not 23,000. India's ground forces are currently given as 294,000 not 241,000. 26. Page 38, Burma had an opportunity to secure supplies from the UK but delayed requesting them until after r deadline specified in their military agreement had passed. Mny of Burma's requests have been casual and have not been coordinated with their military authorities, This section should be br lw ht up to date. The Burmese government has been turned down but eta add sc; 3, to seek commercial sources of supply. The US has also indicated that it desires that arms procured in the t be used against Communists - not to build up private armories. 27. Page 1+0, lines 3-6t t1; aid extended at this time or in the near., predictable future must be given simultaneously to both India and. Pakistan lest the one or the other be seriously alienates`.. Approved For Release 2000/05/23: WR917-01617AO0020(0260002-6