Probable Enemies, Allies, and Neutrals in the Event of War before 1953

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A000400070001-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 5, 1949
• Content Type: IM

Appro~ For Rele ,,,~,~ P78-01 1f~A000400070001-6
CPSNfil~.L Il~E3.,~I3CE ACB1~Y
5 April l9?~9
~I~`d'BT~i.IGBNCE ~(~CRANi3UI~ N(~o 1Zt2
SUBJECT: Probable Enemies, Allies, and Neutrals 3n this Event off'
far before 1953
14 Any general war befores ? 953 would result from Sovi?t
a,,gresaionm It is asautned that the USSR Mould imas~et~ately launch
rn;~.jor offelnsives operations in Europe and the Dear Basta
20 '~hes following tabulations ar~+ concerned only with initial
acollz.tT.ca3. a1.i~mments, ~nithaut x~gerences to subsequent political and
military de;velopzn~snts
3 ~ Probables enemies s the UaSR, Poland, Czechoslova&cia, Iiungary',
Re~tania, Bulgaria, Albania, Cuter ~:~csn~ol3.a, Communist China, and
North P~oresa? ,
~Sa Marginal areas: Finland, Gc~rirtariy, Austria, Yugoslavia,
S;~.nkiang, non-Co~mnunist China.
5? Allied and aceociated states
ao Participants in the Rio Treaty.
bm Participants in the Atlantic Pact: Canada, the United
Kingd~a~a, F'z~,nces, Belgium, the Nestherlands, Luxemburg, N?rvray, Denmark,
k3~ e: ~ s ~, emoranduca was prepared in consultation ~.th designated
representatives of that ]~prex~tment o~# State and then Joint Staiff
to s~eet certain spe~c~..fic requirements of the National. Sescurity
Resources Boardo SEE REVERSE FOR T-ECLASSTT'y .
Approved For Releas.~.~~P78-01617A0004000700~1~~xo,~
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Document No.
~Q ~
NO CHANGE in Class. ^
DECLASSIFIED
s CHANGED T0:
s ?
l
TS 5
a
C
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
proved For Release : CIA-RDP78-01617A000400070001-6
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~~-,
Iceland9 Portugal, and Italy 'with their celonia,~. passessic~ns}.
c. Other recipients of t1S milit~xy' aids Greed, Turkey,
4
Iran, the Philippines, Ks~rea.
d. British 7gominians: Scauth Africa, Ceylon, Australia,
and New Zealand.
e. British Arab allies: Egypt, Trans~ordan, and Iraq
~. Other potential arcs= Ireslatxd, Spa.~.n, Liberia, Ethiopia,
Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Japan.
7. Probable neutrals: Sweden, Switzerland, Israel, Ycsrr-en,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Tibet, Burma, Siam..
ado Genera].. In any conceivablQ general ~wrar before 2953 our en~s?
m~.~ss would be the USSR, its satellite states, and its filth colu~s
tYir?ughout the non-Soviet world. The satellite states dre Palancis
C~echas3.ovakia, Hungary, Rumani~s, Albania, Outer h4ongolia, Co~nunist
China, and North Korea. Tsp. addition, ~,~asec~ur-~arientad insux?gents can-
tro~. mast of Ind?ch3.na?
9. Comuuunist China. In Chins. the early establishment of a
L'aar~unist-~dom~.nated national goverxu~ent is pr?bable. It 3.s problema.tical9
hc~ever, ~rhether the Communists will have establisYa?d by 1953 s?cure
lacs.Jl control tt~c?oughout China. t~oreoves~, except with respect to ;~'an-~
churia, then iJSSR does not -now contr~al Communist China in the- saute sense
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that it controls ttae otter sate~,~.ites. Active Chinese paz?ticip~
tion in tt~+ ~a'sr on tY~e side of tl~e USSR is net a f ox~egane eonc~.ut~i~~~~:aa
Nevea^the3.ess~ the presumption is that Crn~~aun:~:~t China ^srould, coopex~n~~:~e
~.th the USSR to at~r' extant raquirasd~
MARGTNA~, AR~;AS (in ~aict~ tl~ si~wuation is tmo preca~'ious tea as3mit
o# their being counted in t~a3.a reckon~.ng).
]LO? Finleu2d. 'the Finnish P~+apiea can the ~s~~oie~ ar8 bitterly a~nt~.-~
a
Soviets but t+'~.rs~.and is isacapabie ~ou~.d bx?~.n~; them inn Neutrality ~ou1.d x~e~
salt ian isa~lat3,on, mere7.~` po3tpr~n~.ng the day of rec~COningn A,r-ang ~~hhse
hard choices? indecis~.on and inertia ~auld be on th~a side o~ ne~.ttr~,~.`~t~"s
but t event is unpredictablea
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1.1~~ Sizi4eias~ ~ The U~v~ is capabia of talcin~ contral oi' this
a~?ea at arm convenient t3.rne: o
1~? Non-~orr~unist~ Ghina~ Viith the Sao: s~.b1~ ~~o~~tion of Taiwan
(Formosa), any areas o:~ C~a3.na which may rers-ain outs~.de of the cc~r~
trot of a Cor~saunist-?doanixxate~d n~:tional goveprn~~sn#, are ~.ikel~* to be
~.naccessible; and inconsega~ntia~., their cue f?~;~;to independence e~-
tr~me~.y precar3,.ousa
AD~~ fib ASSCGIATFB STA'~~;5
160 satin rY.caO ~~ith~,n the frarne~rord, o~ tilie ~.o Tx?eaty9 then
Lat~.n A.mer3.caxa states would stapsort tYae t~n~.ted Sta.t?~ss in various
degrees of ac$ua1 cooperat~.on~
~.T~ ' Then ~''tlarzt~.a ~ act a St is to tae presua~~d t~a~.t the participants
in tho Atlantic Paet ~- prospe:et~.valy, Canad.~.,~ ~~~ae tTnit~d ~'in~do~.9
Fra~n~;e' 8e~..~a.~am9 tt~ RTet~ierland.s~ i,u~cembt~.r~s Nox~raYs Dennsark~ Ice].~~nci~
Portugal9 and Italy ~ wc~ule~ ~.oyally .#ulf~.~.1 tlle:~r ob1~.Cation:a a~n t,hr3
event of warms
The corstro~. exercised by ?:ertain o.~ these pours i.n their res~-
pect~.vee co~.onis3 territories is reasonably securo csxcept ig~ two
instances: Indochina and. Indone;sia? In Indochina ~rrencr~ authorit~~
is x~stricted to the principal cities and their en~r~.ronsd The f'u$ux~~
o~? the Dutch pos~.t:ton iz~ lndones~,a is hig,;h~.y t~rob~.em~atical~
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~.~#a OtYae~r a~~ai fent~ a:~ U~ rs~,i~.t,- a~.d? ~'he rail3.fiax~+' a~.d ren?y
de~?ed vxed to '~ rendered. to u~r~,~e, ~ur~e~`m ~~?~na the Ph~.~..i~~n~~~
and. ~Carea pre~u~~pes~e, their ali ~;nment ~r3.th t4~ united Str~.t:e~ in the
event of ~rar~ i~ ns~t the~.r aat:~~r~a pa,ia~.pata~.r~n ~n hasti~:~tie~
~,ctua~.~.~*s a3.~. exc~~ct t~!e ~'~~.~.i>~.ne~s ~a~a~.d ~ra~,~.~i;~ he at?~.ac~c~ei h~
the t1~S~ at '~'eh~ o~at~etm
~;~? The 'Dca.rb~.an~? ~s~~h A~~`'a.a~~ ~ey3an~ ~tr~a~.ia, ~~cl ~e~
7E~alargd! ae ~~~,~. a?~ G~a~da~ ~ayr he e;;~~eated tca a?en~~~~? acts ~in~~ar~
to the tJr~.ted Kin~dam ~.~a t~.e ev~~rat a~ ~rax?o ~:nda.a and ~alc~.~fi,an a~~et
't+e ~x~zected to do ~a i.ed~.ate7.~~ )
~?~m B~?~.ti.~Ye Drab al~.ie~~ "~~x~ ~3rita..~h tre~tie~ eat a~.~.~_=~a~ ~it~;1
~,v,atp Tr,~;~~t~arcian, and Ixag, vx~a~.dl be cap~x?af,ive ~.n t:~ ~~s~nec~ a~
aur~.stance~ea '~ ~.n.~ ~x? hau~ ~h~ ~.~'! t1~e ~aet~~ a d~.~paaxt;~a~ra
to x`~pttdi~.te tY.~i~ a:~.:Li,?~.n~;e$ taut their ~~?esent tendency i8 tr~~arc~
cla~ex? re~,at~.an~ ~tt~ ~r~at Bx?-.~ta3.n? In any aaep t Br~.ti~h ea~~.g;
~.t:~;lize t~eir.? ~aea~ amd ~'arc~~ aa~:~za~.~y ~.n tr?aese caraxat~.e~ ~.~ tke
Yr+rs~.and~ The I~~h ~r~aa~?c~. ~.t 3.ea~t ~~a~rtca:~'~ t}ae i'~~ai by
mea~~are~ . h+~rt of ~~,x?s ~,nd mi~a.-~ ~rs~. he ~er~~aadac~ tt~ ~aeaarne c~
b~ig~rent?
-~~,
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~ 2~ n~ ~iavin~ no hvp~ of av~cor~anv~a.ti~an ~.tk~ ths~ USSR' Sga~.?
~+ozxad seize tlae ocoasion to escag~ f'x?oa~ :i~+a~.~a.tion into avtf.~re a].i~.~~~~:
.doh t1~ At~.atatic Po~v~~^s~
X34 T,~..~aria and ~;tYai.~ao `I?h~~~ sta,t~~ vvu~.d be g~ruuad~sd tv cea-
~~,~~.~,
og~:rataa wfth than Z~Ye~t to any ext~~zt requiradda
~~~ Saudi .~rabiaa xtar~ Saud ~ou].d expect tY>~ Ua~f.~ta3d States -~,o da~:~'~n~~.
~,~~.
Dhahraaap ar~d v~vo~ald coo ro~hat he cou~.ci to coo~ae~~ite~
~~m S a az'id I~e~aanaxi~ ~he~~~~ ~tatee comic:. not rc'~a.9i~t eff'ect~,~~s~~:g
~~o~nn,~~..k~..~.,v x~
e:itha~r the USSR or this P~e~t~ T3xe inf.tia~. po~3.t~.oras of nei~h~orir~
st~:~tc~~ ~oul.d pro'~~,b~.y dr~:a~ them into at ~.ea~t, ga~i~e a~1t;.~~.t ~?~~h
t~ri~ iVaE:~t~
~#a~ ~'ap~ ~'he ~apan.e~e ?~rc~c~d aoti~reiy s~.g~ao~~t US de~er?s~e of ~T~~~ar^.s
not oniy ~y~,, re~.~on a3.~ traditional. RA~ssogkaobia; and ar~ti