Soviet Deficiency in Strategic Items in 1952

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A000400110002-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: March 18, 1949
• Content Type: IM

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CENI'tZAL INTELLIC,~NCE AGr~1CY
18 I~rah 191,9
7NTELLI(~ENCE ~EMORArIDiT~i NU. ]1r6
3UB3k~CTs Soviet Deficiency in Strategic Items in ].952
1. ~.
For purposes of this paper, atoakpilinp is defined as the
accumulation of materis1,s on a natio~.l ba~aia tar zse~ating a national
emergency, this aaoumulati.oa be3x~g in e'coeas of .gnaatitiea normally
held is the p3pe3.#.sae Or as normal industrial reaerrrea. ldo attempt
has bees made to aeaear~ tho fbaaibiLity of obtai.~ing these items
from the possible aouroaa oP supg],y noted. ~
The Sav3et bioa is considered to a~ae Qfs Albania,
Bulgaria, CaeahoaLoveki.+a, Finleuad, GermarGr (orbit Zonal, Hiutgary,
~'oleuad, Rumania, U35R, ate Yngoal,av3a.
2. j~l rat e .
The Soviet orbit will bs deficie~ is 1952 in the psoduatina
of the mir~arala listed beltn- together with the sources of supply.
(Stockpiling wbZl probablyr le~rg~aly off set det'bciencisa. ~
I~aduatrialldiamondo: Belgian Congo, 3ottth Afrioa, Brasil.
~9olgbdemu~ s South Karen, Chine, Norway
Cobalts Belgian Gango, ldorthern Rhodaaia, Mnland
Tins Malaya, N.E.I., Siam, Surzza, Chian
Tungast: Korea, Chian, Bolivia
Copp s Chita, Rbadeaia, Belgian Congo .
fend ~ t~rsico, Peru, Burnas, .Itustralia
Beryl : ~rasil, Argeutias, India
Ca]ambite s Nigeria, Brasil, Be3.gian Congo
Taatalite'~s Nigeria, Brasil, k~elgiaa Congo
hms xxrt bean aoordi~aeted wit$ the i~atalligeacs c~rg~e-rxl.aationa
of the~Aeportmenta of State, Ar~ey, ~Tsvy, and the Air Force.
IIaleaa #J~churiaa deposits are developed suf'f'iciently.
25uf#icient if Yugoalar p~roduatior~ is avablable.
3A~logment of reasrvaea u~arsowa.
Notes Thin Ili, prepared. an short aotiae froze data in CIA files,
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t~SR'e present graduation of ey7rthetia rubber is subetantist
and sufficlent to supp]~r pareaent pt~oce~seing faai33ties of the it,
sa well as -most ot` the praceee3.nq nssde of tree satellite nations. In
addition, the aatelLite natiorss are plar~nfnR eeiall-some eynth~etia
rubber i~tc~etriea in theiz' own cottatriea, sods of which reay be operating
by 1953 ~uAd would acid to tl~e general aupp3,~r pioturs.
l~atura7. rabbet roust be iparted. Ix9SR impbxted 130,0?Q tons
oP natural rubber in 1948 tree Southeast Asia. It ie eetisated that
the. ~SR~ ha+s etaokpiled 75,CtoQ -~ 1flo,W0 tonct of natural rubber eo fir.
No~neur, 3n fudging the rubber eituatiom ~- 1953, certain
paesibi]iti+ee aunt be oonRsidered. Although the m3.3.itat~- needs ha-e
oat been eatiaated, it ie b$I.ieTed that tlxe '0.9SR sad satellitss will.
ha~ro euftiaietxt ~'ab~.aating eapaoity 3'or an i~.t3+s1 rear effort. Aa
for auetaiaing a long xar, it probab3,t wonid lane serious difficulties
unless ezortain sups, eucl~- ae the eetabliehseht of addit#onal srnthetia
capacity, mere taken. ~R ~axderetandn the probleir asd is ca-xrEfna~ag
researoh atad d~e~+slopseent on ~rx-thstia robber.
3tac]cp9.Iing of natural rubber, ii' oont3.nued at ate p~+esent
taro of tros ?5, OECD ? loo, OOQ tans per a~une +auZd, blr 1953, raaoh an
amount snf'~'ia3,ent, at paroeent rate of aoasump-t3,oa, far 5.1? ysar~s'
rsgnirementa. Iaaporowrement of sTnthetio rubber for use in tires aa~d
other siXitarr arti+clee asY reacsh the stage at whioh s ~rubstantiall~
enmller percentag~o of natura,I rubber .rill. be needed.
~+
The grAateat, de!#.ciex~y' in this liner wi11 be in spas'!r sod
repair parts of ia+parted capital, equipment ~ oanaueabl,~- atoms roc
use is oapital. egnipa~xit. For inetanae, is the field at taachias torsls,
auah erpare and x-epeir parts are gsears, ~+raZiree, bearings, at-d. ed~
aseetn~alfes, will be defioiaut.
Tool and aoaeseox~r ~orateridls resaseaar~r for opsrstia~r of
fearraign-made aaohine Coale i.e., dine, 33,gs, 3'3'etursee tapret, resnbre,
drills, abarasirrr~ products ~wheeLs, boning atiolaa, eto.i will bar ~fi--
oieat, although small etcakpiloa are on heed at preaatrt.
It 3s eetisetod that, even b~ 1952, o~a],1r vas out of foroac Sa~3.et
.bloc 3xrneatorT maoh3t~s foals will ba oi' rarri$t bloc rrrannfaature. The
re~g irri+sntox~r will. be prits~rilj- of Qsrman, U-S, @C ewmrvt'aoture
~3.a that arder~, although S,rrise and Swedish ma~en~faoturas will t~oneist
oP aaall but vital degmants of the ixr+-entarp.
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5. ]actrigs1,Frs~
Bssentia]. materials involved in the-operation o! electric
power plants are auah expandable eomponertta as boiler tubes, coa-
denser tubes, pump parts, turbine blades, ball bearings, and thrust
bearings. ECxcept for acoideats], daastige, eleotrioal generating
maohiaery require virtusl~ no raplaoemertt parts. The eaRma is true
for nub-statiaa and tranamiss~,on 13ne equipment.
At present, boiler tubes and ball brerings ere kno~na to be
in deficient supply, but the de~rae of deticiency in 1952 Danner ba
aoeurate3y measured.
Thsre is na present evidence of stookpiliag of the abcri+s
aompaneata, nor is it belfeved that a aigni;~'i.eeeat amount crt stock-
piling aRn be aoocmpllahed by 1952.
tAlith the possible exception of USSR (sa to boiler and con-
denaer tubes oalg), nobs of .the Soviet bloc countries are self-eut'#icieat
for the shore items sad the outside aouraes of supply are ttK, ~nden,
9wit~cerland, Ita]y, i~stern Europa, earl tiSA.
G. ~.F~~a
Al3R imported 11,,000 tons at hard fibers (aissl, henequen,
and mRnila) in 1938. Share mere no imports in 1946. About 1,404 torte
wa=y imported in 1947, and 30,840 tam in 196. Bard fibers era not
produced internally within the Soviet bloc. It is probable that
purchases is 1948 includdd aa~ounta to ba stockpiled. Stockpi3ss,
therefore, may make up for a~!- possible inabilities to import in
1952. l~atib hemp (ia good supply) in the 9oriet bloc could be used
to soma extent as a substitute far the hard fibers. In I948, i~e~cico
wan the chief supplier.
7. Pe .re ~~..
It is estimated that deficienoiea of arl.ation gaaolina will
cantinas to ba in p~roapect for the Soviet Uxtioa is 19x2 becsuae of
limited aviation gasoli~ equipmentoapacity. There will. be acute
ahorta~pes of aviation gasoline sad 2ubrioating oils in the Satellites
in 1952.. .
The Soviets have pursued n plan to establish s reserve of PO L
~p~roducts by ?3.garous exploitation of indigenous crude oil, atringdat
allocsatioa of domestic production, utilisation of ayrYthetie feels, and
imports t~rom the 3atellitea. The extent to which a surplus has been
built up for atrategia purposes cannot be sccurately estisated since
available ix~ormation does not sallow for arty difreraxttiation between a
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common: tollcneed i.~.ustrial practice of keeping rsaerrea on hand
and the aeauesulatioa of aurpluaea for etrateg3,a purpc~see. Nere~rtSu~-
lees, there has beau eubatantial e~rfdence that tke 9rnrists hs~
imp]aen~ented a atrateglc P'oL stockpfliag project.
Rec~tYt America~+ awrtaitment of exports to #~ So~riet Uni~m
of high-octane gasoline, lubricating oils, and special blending agezrte
diecoat3x~ed the Sov3~et unioa~s gain source of oataide supp],y. Shouad
the tSSSR iitd it i~npossibLe to atocScpi2,e !'~cs~ iadig~enoua prodt~otiaa,
it ~.r- likel,~r to call au Rwtea3a to provide additional aupplfes so
that the prariaion of sow oil tar stoakpflSag esems reasagab],~r
certain in ear ee+eat. Onta3de sources a! aupp?,~r tsar the Satellites
are the Midd3~ fast, Yeneausla, tt~e U5, Italr, Tangier, sad Frax~ae.
T(~E4R~
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