AFGHANISTAN

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CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2
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S
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February 4, 2013
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1
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October 21, 1948
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REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 -tatRi COPY NO.294 FOR rHE CHIEF,CIA LIETARY AFGHANISTAN SR-32 Published 21 October 1948 Do2um,,, t Jr ".. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Declassified in in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 WARNING This document contains information affecting the na- tional defense of the United States within the meaning of the Espionage Act, 50 U.S.C., 31 and 32, as amended. Its transmission or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? ? SECRET DISSEMINATION NOTICE 1. This copy of this publication is for the information and use of the recipient designated on the front cover and of individuals under the jurisdiction of the recipient's office who require the information for the performance of their official duties. Further dissemination elsewhere in the department to other offices which require the informa- tion for the performance of official duties may be authorized by the following: a. Special Assistant to the Secretary of State for Research and Intelligence, for the Department of State b. Director of Intelligence, GS, USA, for the Department of the Army c. Chief, Naval Intelligence, for the Department of the Navy d. Director of Intelligence, USAF, for the Department of the Air Force e. Director of Security and Intelligence, AEC, for the Atomic Energy Com- mission f. Deputy Director for Intelligence, Joint Staff, for the Joint Staff g. Assistant Director for Collection and Dissemination, CIA, for any other Department or Agency 2. This copy may be either retained or destroyed by burning in accordance with applicable security regulations, or returned to the Central Intelligence Agency by arrangement with the Office of Collection and Dissemination, CIA. DISTRIBUTION: Office of the President National Security Council National Security Resources Board Department of State Office of Secretary of Defense Department of the Army Department of the Navy Department of the Air Force Document No. 0 19. CHANGE in Class. 0 YI DECLASSIFIED V?ss. C'I.ANGED TO: TS S DDA gam, 4 Apr 77 Auth: 77/1763 Date: State-Army-Navy-Air Force Coordinating Committee Joint Chiefs of Staff Atomic Energy Commission Research and Development Board By: Div, SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? Published October 1948 SECRET SR-32 AFGHANISTAN TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY SECTION I ? POLITICAL SITUATION 1. GENESIS OF PRESENT POLITICAL SITUATION 1 a. Introductory . ? ? 1 b. Establishment of the Constitutional Monarchy 1 c. Afghanistan during World War II ? 2 2. PRESENT GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURE 2 3. CURRENT ISSUES 4 4. STABILITY OF THE GOVERNMENT 5 SECTION II? ECONOMIC SITUATION 1. INTRODUCTORY ? ? 7 2. GENESIS OF THE PRESENT ECONOMIC SYSTEM 8 3. DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESENT ECONOMIC SYSTEM 8 a. Natural Resources . 8 (1) Agricultural Products and Livestock 8 (2) Forest Products 10 (3) Minerals 10 b. Industry . 13 c. Transportation 14 d. Finance . 14 e. International Trade 15 4. ECONOMIC STABILITY 18 SECTION III ? FOREIGN AFFAIRS 1. GENESIS OF THE PRESENT FOREIGN POLICY 21 2. PRESENT RELATIONS WITH FOREIGN NATIONS 21 a. The UK . 21 b. The USSR 22 c. The US . 23 d. Iran, Turkey, and other, Moslem Countries of the Middle East 24 e. India and Pakistan . 25 f. Other Countries 26 g. International Organizations 26 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET SECTION IV?MILITARY SITUATION 1. GENESIS OF THE PRESENT MILITARY POLICIES . 2. STRENGTH AND DISPOSITION OF THE ARMED FORCES 29 29 a. Army 29 b. Navy 30 c. Air Force . 30 d. Gendarmerie 31 e. Quasi-Military Forces 31 3. WAR POTENTIAL 31 a. Manpower 31 b. Natural Resources 32 c. Industry . 32 4. MILITARY INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES 32 a. Army Plans . 32 b. Military Capabilities 33 SECTION V ? STRATEGIC FACTORS AFFECTING US SECURITY 1. THE IMPORTANCE OF AFGHAN INDEPENDENCE . 35 2. FACTORS PROMOTING CONTINUED INDEPENDENCE 35 3. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST CONTINUED INDEPENDENCE 35 SECTION VI? PROBABLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING US SE- CURITY . 37 APPENDIX A ? Topography and Climate 39 APPENDIX B ? Significant Communications Facilities . 43 APPENDIX C ? Population Statistics and Characteristics 49 APPENDIX D ? Significant Biographical Data . 53 APPENDIX E ? Chronology of Significant Events 61 APPENDIX F ? Important Afghan Officials 65 SECRET MAPS . ? Figure I. Terrain, Transportation Figure II. Ethnic, Linguistic and Religious Groups Figure III. Density of Population Figure IV. Mineral Resources Figure V. Agricultural Products and Climatic Zones Figure VI. Industrial Facilities Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET SUMMARY Afghanistan, which for many years served as a buffer state between Russia and the British in India, is strategically important because it is traversed by the shortest feasible route from the Soviet Union to Pakistan and India. It has a common frontier of more than 1,000 miles with the USSR and makes up the eastern end of the arc formed by Turkey, Iran, and Afghanistan. Continuity of government in Afghanistan is assured by the close political and military control exercised by a competent oligarchical regime composed of members of the royal family and a few other select individuals. The government shrewdly main- tains internal stability in the country, with its diverse ethnic and tribal groups, by plac- ing trusted Afghans in positions of control and administration and by settling groups of true Afghan tribesmen in regions adjacent to the USSR. The army is adequate for suppressing tribal uprisings and for maintaining internal order. The large majority of Afghans are dependent on agriculture or animal husbandry, and the standard of living is low. The government, however, is trying to improve living conditions through irrigation projects and the development of small industrial enter- prises. The export of karakul skins provides foreign exchange for the importation of essential goods and for the development of automotive transportation although the current Pakistan-Indian disturbances are preventing or delaying the delivery of essen- tial imports (especially oil products) to land-locked Afghanistan and are impeding the normal flow of Afghan agricultural products to those countries. If prolonged, this situation may impair the political stability of the government. Afghanistan's relations with other nations are generally cordial, although there are recurrent difficulties with Pakistan and Iran. Friction with Pakistan has devel- oped over the status of some three million Pathan tribesmen who live in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province but who have close ethnic and linguistic affinities with the true Afghan tribesmen in Afghanistan. The dispute with Iran has to do with the distribution of the waters of the Helmand River, which flows for most of its course through Afghanistan but empties into a marshy area in Sistan Province, Iran. The USSR appears to have no objectives in Afghanistan itself, and Soviet action against the country will depend on the Kremlin's policy and intent toward the Indian subcontinent (and, to a less extent, toward Iran) . The USSR has shown little interest in the internal affairs of Afghanistan although it has expressed concern over US activity in or "penetration" of the country. A few Soviet agents have been active among the peoples in the northern part of Afghanistan, and the USSR may ultimately seek to exploit the ethnic and linguistic relations between these people and groups living across the border inside the Soviet Union. Should over-all Soviet policy in southeast ? Note: The information contained in this report is as of August 1948. The intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Army, Navy, and the Air Force have concurred in this report. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Asia demand occupation of Afghanistan, the Afghan armed forces could offer no effec- tive resistance. Afghan-US relations are steadily growing stronger. The US has in recent years assumed an increasingly important role in Afghanistan's foreign trade by importing most of its karakul and by supplying nearly all of Afghanistan's automotive and indus- trial equipment. Afghanistan employs a number of American teachers, technicians, and also an American engineering firm for construction work. The Afghan Govern- ment has sought the good offices of the US in resolving the dispute with Iran and is hoping for a US loan to implement its economic development program. Afghan offi- cials, although cautious of making commitments and unwilling to provoke the USSR, have shown some interest in emulating such other Moslem nations as Iran and Turkey in obtaining material and moral support from the US in the maintenance of independence. 'SECRET fi Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET SECTION I POLITICAL SITUATION 1. GENESIS OF PRESENT POLITICAL SITUATION. a. Introductory. The history of the region goes back to remote antiquity, although the earliest written references to people called Afghans are circa A.D. 1000, and the country did not receive its present name, which means the "Land of the Afghans," until the eight- eenth century. During the centuries, present-day Afghanistan has been variously a province of empires ruled by foreigners, a dismembered country distributed among its neighbors, a group of mutually hostile petty states, and a powerful kingdom under local rulers. About the middle of the eighteenth century a local sovereign, Ahmad Shah, established the country as a political and geographical entity. During the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, Great Britain was determined to maintain Afghanistan as a buffer state between Russia and India. British efforts to eliminate any manifesta- tions of Russian activity or influence within the country led to two Afghan-British wars in the years between 1838 and 1880. At the end of the second war the Afghans agreed that their foreign relations should be conducted through the Government of India and in return received annual subsidies and military supplies. The Anglo-Rus- sian convention of 1907 stated that Afghanistan was outside the Russian sphere of influence. Since 1834, when Dost Mohammad became Amir, the rulers of Afghanistan have sprung from a single family of the Mohammedzai clan, which belongs to the Barakzai branch of the Durani tribe. b. Establishment of the Constitutional Monarchy. While Afghanistan maintained its neutrality in World War I, resisting pressure from its Turkish co-religionists and from German agents, the end of the war brought armed conflict with Great Britain. In 1919 Amanullah, a great-great-grandson of Dost Mohammad, became Amir and in his zeal to secure complete independence dis- patched his troops across the frontier into India. British forces had the best of a brief campaign along the eastern border of the country, but Great Britain, preoccupied with postwar problems at home and in India, was willing to negotiate peace which put an end to the established system of subsidies and recognized Afghanistan's inde- pendence in the conduct of domestic and foreign affairs. However, the conviction among Afghans that their general, Nadir Shah, won a brilliant victory over their long- time enemy remains an important factor in the continued loyalty of the people to the ruling family. 1 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05 : CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Amanullah, after his return from a tour of Europe where he was greatly im- pressed by Western social and economic institutions, undertook a disjointed program of internal reforms. He discarded the title of Amir for that of King and established a cabinet and an assembly while retaining autocratic control of the government. He incurred the hostility of religious and tribal leaders by his attempts to free women from the veil and to foster feminine education and by his willingness to admit for- eigners in numbers to Afghanistan. He neglected the proper maintenance of the army, and when revolt broke out in 1928 he was unable to rally strong support. Tribal ele- ments led by a peasant leader, Bacha-i-Saqao, occupied Kabul and the central govern- ment disintegrated. In 1929 Amanullah abdicated the throne and fled to exile in Italy, where he served as a tool of the Axis during the recent war and where he still remains. After several months of disorder, central authority was re-established by Gen- eral Mohammad Nadir Shah. A descendant of a brother of Dost Mohammad, Nadir Shah became king in 1929 and reigned until his assassination in 1933. He instituted his own program of reforms, which was much less drastic than that of his predecessor. A constitution was adopted and through his efforts the treasury was replenished, a banking system created, and a system of government monopolies established which provided revenue funds for road building and for irrigation and power projects. His son and successor, Mohammad Zahir Shah, continues the policies and pro- gram of his father and is advised and guided by the same relatives who were the asso- ciates of Nadir Shah. A brother of Nadir Shah, Mohammad Hashim Khan, was prime minister from 1929 until May 1946, when he was succeeded by another brother, Shah Mahmud Khan, formerly minister of war. A third brother, Shah Wali Khan, who has held various important positions in the government, has recently been appointed ambassador to Pakistan. c. Afghanistan during World War II. Afghanistan announced and followed a policy of neutrality during the war in spite of traditional enmity toward (and fear of) the British and in spite of the pro-Axis propaganda disseminated by the Kabul German colony, many of whom were specialists employed by the Afghan Government. The German nationals were expelled in 1941; the legation remained until August 1945. In 1942, however, at the high point of the German advance into the Caucasus, the government indicated informally to the Ger- man and Italian diplomatic missions at Kabul that Afghanistan would place troops at the disposal of the Germans and would cooperate in obtaining intelligence from India and the USSR if German forces reached the frontier of Afghanistan. 2. PRESENT GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURE. ? The constitution of Afghanistan, adopted in 1931, appears to have been based upon that of the 1906 Iranian constitution, which followed Western European models. It provides for a division of governmental authority between legislative, executive, and judicial branches. In actual practice, however, the cabinet, directed by the royal family, dominates the legislative branch. SECRET 2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET The seat of the government is Kabul. The legislative branch consists of the Majlis-i-Alli-Ayan or Senate and the Majlis-i-Shura-i-Milli or National Assembly. The Senate has a present membership of some 45 distinguished Afghans who have been appointed for life by the king. The National Assembly has a membership of 120 depu- ties elected for three-year terms on the basis of one deputy for each voting unit of 100,000 people. All males 'above the age of 20 may vote, but the percentage of the population actually participating in elections is very small. Decisions taken by either body must be approved by the other except that acts passed by the National Assembly during adjournment of the Senate do not require the latter's approval. The constitution states that the sovereignty of the country is hereditary in the family of Nadir Shah. The king has constitutional authority to name the prime minister, to sanction laws passed by the National Assembly and Senate, to command the military forces of the country, to proclaim war, to conclude peace, and to make treaties. The cabinet is composed of the prime minister, thirteen ministers, and two heads of departments.* Theoretically the cabinet is responsible to the legislative branch, but in actual fact it conducts the affairs of government free from parliamentary controls. An important provision of the Iranian constitution which prohibits members of the reigning family from holding cabinet posts was not followed in the Afghan constitution. Since 1931 relatives of Nadir Shah and of the present king have held a majority of the cabinet posts, usually remaining in office for a period of years. In this manner the king and the experienced members of his family, especially the three surviving brothers of Nadir Shah, exert an oligarchic control over the government and country. The Afghans are zealous Moslems, and the constitution names the Hanafi rite, one of the four orthodox systems of Moslem jurisprudence of the Sunni sect, as the official doctrine. The judicial organization of the country, based upon this system rather than upon a civil code of the Western type, consists of a supreme court, nineteen courts of appeal in the provinces, many lower courts, and a number of police courts. While the constitution guarantees civil rights and liberties, the press is controlled by the government, which retains the sole right over publication of news. Freedom of speech and of assembly is permitted but not specifically guaranteed; use of this privi- lege for subversive purposes would provoke repressive measures by the government. No formal political parties exist in Afghanistan, and it is doubtful whether the forma- tion of even a pro-government party would be permitted. Organized Communism has not appeared in Afghanistan, and any signs of such activity would be immediately suppressed as constituting a danger to the state and as being contrary to the constitu- tion, which forbids activity against the religious faith of the people. Auxiliary to the regular machinery of the government is the Loe Jirga. This grand assembly of the tribal leaders may be summoned at Kabul to deal with tribal disputes or to receive any communication of vital interest which the government wishes dissemi- nated to the entire country. The last Loe Jirga was called in 1941 to discuss the ques- tion of whether Axis nationals should be expelled from the country. * See Appendix F. 3 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET The government makes use of members of the true Afghan tribes * to maintain order throughout the country. The provincial governors and most of the high officials, both at Kabul and in the provinces, come from this group. The government has also settled communities of Afghan tribes in the northern area of the country in an effort to establish effective control over this region. 3. CURRENT ISSUES. The Government of Afghanistan's chief internal problem is the maintenance of order and the settlement of the legitimate grievances of the population elements. While there have been no serious tribal disorders since 1946, the Government is con- stantly faced with the task of controlling, without alienating, the unruly tribal groups along the eastern border. Certain high officials have given support to a new policy of overawing the tribes by keeping among them units of the strong, loyal army. This policy is in part replacing the older practice of containing the tribes by appeasement, intrigue, and subsidies. The government has also acted to transfer insubordinate or potentially disloyal groups from their hereditary areas to regions where they may be easily supervised. In 1947 and 1948 it moved Tajiks and Uzbeks from the north and Safi tribesmen from the east to southwestern Afghanistan in the Helmand valley below Girishk. Population elements in various parts of the country harbor grievances against the central authority. They disapprove of forced labor (with or without pay) ; military conscription; compulsory planting of such crops as cotton and sugar beets; the forced sale of lambskins and other products at low prices to large government-controlled companies; the lack of transport for moving local goods to higher-price areas; the pre- dominance in the government of officials from the true Afghan tribes; and attempts to establish Pushtu as the official language of the country. A considerable number of the younger and better educated Afghans are dissatisfied with the static state of the social structure of the country but express their views only in private. The government is aware of these complaints, and one of the reasons why the present prime minister (Shah Mahmud Khan) took office was to pursue a more pro- gressive policy and to satisfy the general demand for modern reforms. The govern- ment has employed an American engineering and construction firm, Morrison-Knudsen- Afghanistan, to execute specific agricultural and industrial projects. The government has also expressed a desire to develop the rich areas in the north- ern part of the country adjacent to the Soviet frontier. Such a project would increase the national wealth and would tend to placate the Uzbek and Tajik population elements who are aware of Soviet interest in fostering the culturing unity and development of the same ethnic groups within the USSR. The development of the northern area, how- ever, would have serious political implications. If nationals of the Western Powers were sent into the region to supervise the program, Afghanistan probably would incur the hostility of the USSR. Moreover, if the program proved successful, the USSR * These true Afghan tribes include the Durani, Ghilzai, and smaller groups. They are used in controlling and governing other ethnic groups of the country. See Appendix C. SECRET 4 1_ Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET might well view the area with increased cupidity. Hence the government has done little to develop this region. In the field of foreign relations, the Afghan Government is faced with several problems vis-?is Pakistan, India, Iran, the USSR, and the US.* The most urgent matters involve Pakistan, across whose territory lies Afghanistan's normal and most practical route to a deep-sea port. The movement of oil products through Pakistan to Afghanistan has been sharply curtailed, and quantities of other imports destined for Kabul are in warehouses at Karachi awaiting transportation. The former North West Frontier Province (now a part of Pakistan) with its predominantly Afghan Pathan population is the cause of considerable controversy. Moreover, current friction be- tween Pakistan and India and problems incidental to the establishment of these new states have had repercussions in Afghanistan. The Afghan Government places increasing emphasis on its friendly relations with the US. Realizing that it may thus draw unfavorable attention from the USSR, the government may join the group of Middle Eastern countries whose resistance to Soviet penetration and aggression is based upon faith in US support. 4. STABILITY OF THE GOVERNMENT. The stability of the present regime in Afghanistan appears assured. No political parties exist to challenge the actions or policies of the government; the press refrains from criticism; and the independence of Afghanistan is not threatened by any foreign power. In the event of the death of the present king, the members of the royal family who now rule the country would continue in power, and one of them would be desig- nated regent or elevated to the throne. The country is always faced with the possibility of tribal unrest, but at present the tribes are calm, and the Afghan Army has demonstrated its ability to deal with regional disorders. As a close and aggressive neighbor, the USSR remains a potential source of trouble to Afghanistan, but it does not constitute an immediate threat. * See Section III. 5 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECTION II ECONOMIC SITUATION I. INTRODUCTORY. SECRET The economy of Afghanistan is agricultural and pastoral. Some 70 percent of its people are engaged in tilling the soil or raising stock, and most of the remainder are nomads who follow their flocks across the land. Only a few thousand persons could be considered full-time workers in industry. In normal years the limited water supply of the country is sufficient for the pro- duction of foodstuffs in amounts adequate to maintain the meager diet to which its people have been accustomed for centuries. There is a considerable surplus of fruit, vegetables, and nuts available for export to neighboring India. Afghanistan possesses important natural resources which could be exploited on an extensive scale both through the extraction of subsurface materials and through the development of major irrigation projects. However, most of the real wealth of the country?coal and oil reserves, conditions favorable for the growth of cotton and sugar beets, and the grazing areas most suitable for raising karakul sheep?is in the northern section. If deprived of this region, immediately adjacent to the USSR, Afghanistan would lose a large proportion of its resources and would have difficulty in raising ade- quate agricultural products to meet the needs of the remaining population. In its trade relations with the rest of the world Afghanistan is fortunate in having one natural resource, karakul lambskins, which finds a steady market abroad and which is the important source of foreign exchange. This exchange, until recently under strict control by the government, is used in large part for the modernization of the country. Afghanistan's program of modernization and industrialization is impressive only if it is considered in comparison to the period before 1930 when there was a total lack of motor roads, motor vehicles, factories, mills, and power plants. The extension of trans- portation facilities and the industrial development have as yet had very limited direct effect upon the life of the mass of people. Food and crop surpluses may be more readily marketed and imported goods can be more uniformly distributed, but in actual practice the prices of agricultural products are set low while those of foreign and locally manu- factured items are set high in order to insure substantial profits for the government- controlled banks and licensed companies. While the deep-rooted suspicion of foreigners and foreign intentions which long retarded industrial development in Afghanistan is disappearing, the lack of convertible capital prevents rapid industrial expansion. The government, which is expected to continue the practice of engaging foreign specialists, may even permit the participation of foreign capital in industrial enterprises to alleviate this condition. The general standard of living in Afghanistan is roughly comparable to that pre- vailing in rural areas of the Near and Middle East; it is close to that of Iran and some- what lower than that of the countries fringing the western Mediterranean. 7 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET 2. GENESIS OF THE PRESENT ECONOMIC SYSTEM. For centuries in the area of modern Afghanistan a feudal system was in force under which local chieftains known as khans and maliks controlled segments of the sedentary and nomadic population regardless of the shifting political divisions and changing allegiances of the region. Within more recent times the splendor of Afghanistan's ancient towns has van- ished, and the public works erected to extend and stabilize agricultural production have fallen into decay. Concurrently with this economic decline, the true Afghan tribes worked for political solidarity and successfully established their hold over the other population elements. Added impetus to solidarity was provided by the wars of the 19th century against Great Britain, and the movement finally culminated in the estab- lishment of a completely independent state in the twentieth century. Since 1921 the ruling group, drawn largely from these same tribes, has worked in a paternalistic fashion toward a gradual improvement of the economic situation. Until very recently all contacts with the outside world were made through the government. Financial operations and statements were, and still are, kept from general view. A monopoly system was established to control foreign trade, internal transport, construc- tion, and industrial development. Companies holding monopolies over stated products received capital from both private investors and the government, while the government retained control over their operations. The operations of some 130 such companies brought important annual revenues to the government and also built up reserves of gold and foreign exchange. In the current period two important trends are the lifting of monopolistic control from certain items, and the merging of numerous companies to form a few larger companies which are dominated by the Afghan National Bank (Bank- i-Millie) and the Bank of Afghanistan (Da Afghanistan Bank) . The impact of World War II upon the economic system of Afghanistan was serious. The industrialization program was interrupted, and foreign trade declined sharply. However, with a view to bolstering the country's wartime economy, the US facilitated the shipment of karakul skins, a luxury item, to New York. As a result Afghanistan accumulated a sizable amount of foreign exchange. 3. DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESENT ECONOMIC SYSTEM. a. Natural Resources. (1) Agricultural Products and Livestock. The part of Afghanistan regularly cultivated is not over 3 percent of the entire area of the country. Three-quarters of this cultivated land lies to the north of the Hindu Kush range. In normal years food production, except tea and sugar, is ample for local needs. Periods of drought upset this balance, as in 1946 when the US sent 16,500 tons of wheat and flour to Afghanistan. Lack of manufacturing facilities results in a sur- plus of raw cotton and wool, which are for the most part sent to the USSR or India. SECRET 8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Quantities of fresh and dried fruits, vegetables, and nuts are shipped to India and Pakistan. ? In 1945 official government figures gave the cereal production of the ? ? country as follows: Cereals Metric Tons Wheat 2,916,666 Barley 1,388,880 Millet 3,467,222 Rice 25,000 Other grains 189,583 Afghan's statistics must be viewed with some reserve and it may be noted that reliable foreign estimates place wheat production as low as 800,000 tons and the rice crop as high as 192,000 tons. In certain regions barley instead of wheat is used in bread mak- ing. Millet is eaten by the people and also used as a cattle food. Good quality long-staple cotton is grown in the north and northwest of the country. The crop totalled 26,721 tons in 1940, when some 9,929 tons of raw cotton were exported, but in recent years the quantity exported has been much smaller. The highest production of sugar beets in a single year has been 37,000 tons. Recently, cot- ton and sugar beet production has fallen off, partly because expanded wheat production was required to meet current deficiencies. Raw silk is produced in limited quantities. Fruit and vegetable production is heaviest south of the Hindu Kush range. The orchards yield heavy crops of apricots,. apples, plums, peaches, and pears as well as citrus fruits. Grapes, melons, and pomegranates are extensively cultivated, and large quantities of pistachios and almonds are gathered. Some tobacco is raised, and the sesame and castor oil plants are grown for their oils. In 1944 cultivation of the opium poppy, formerly widespread, was forbidden by government decree. Agricultural production is conditioned by the fact that the annual pre- cipitation over most of the cultivated areas is less than ten inches. Heavy snowfalls in the high mountains result in a spring run-off which represents the major water supply of the country. Dry farming is carried on in the high mountain valleys of the north and northeast, but more than half of the total cultivated acreage is irrigated. Gen- erally small channels which are led off from the rivers and streams water the terraced fields. In some localities wells are the source of water supply, while the "qanat" system, common to Iran, in which underground channels tap permanent water tables well below the surface, is employed in a crescent-shaped area stretching from Farah to Ghazni. Irrigated land may produce two crops a year. More than half of the cultivated land is owned by large landowners; the state also holds large tracts. Independent farmers, who seldom own more than a few acres are far outnumbered by sharecroppers who labor on the large holdings. These peasants, aided by domestic animals, plow, sow, reap, and thresh by the primitive methods common to the entire Middle East for many centuries. The future prosperity of Afghanistan is dependent largely upon the extension and improvement of agricultural production and methods. An agricultural school is in operation at Kabul, and Morrison-Knudsen-Afghanistan and International 9 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Harvester Company are conducting certain experimental work in agriculture. It is probable that the amount of arable land could be doubled through a comprehensive pro- gram of irrigation. Plans of the government in this field include both the re-use of ancient dams and barrages and the construction of new systems. Several old barrages in the region to the north of Ghazni have been partially or completely reconstructed (in- cluding works at Sira; on the Ghazni River and at Kharwar on the Logar River) . Some of the new projects are in operation. In the vicinity of Kabul and Boutkhak Barrage to the southwest of the city irrigates 1,500 acres, and a dam at Kargha on the upper Kabul River irrigates 5,000 acres. The Gohaigan Canal, above the Pul-i-Khumri Dam, irri- gates 10,000 acres. More extensive works are planned for the Helmand River. A diver- sion dam at Girishk on the Helmand will provide water for the Boghra Canal. This canal, begun by Japanese engineers and now being dug along a new course by Morrison- Knudsen-Afghanistan, is to irrigate 100,000 acres southwest of Girishk. Seasonal con- trol and distribution would be effected by a storage dam at Kajkai, farther up the Helmand. At the present time the country has no facilities for storing large stocks of grain. Mechanized farming methods will probably be introduced very slowly. Domestic animals number about 35 million, of which over 85 percent are sheep and goats with the balance horses, cattle, donkeys, and camels. Fat-tailed sheep are the common breed found throughout the country, but special attention is devoted to the type which produces karakul lambskins. Flocks of this type are concentrated north of the Hindu Kush range in the regions of Andkhui, Maimana, and Mazar-i- Sharif, where their number may reach 4 million, and the annual production for export approximates 2,400,000 skins. In general the quality of the raw wool produced for export is rather poor. In recent years exports of wool have varied from 1,270 to 9,200 tons. In the summer months extensive movements of flocks take place across the country from south to north and from west to east. (2) Forest Products. The forest growth of Afghanistan is limited to a few areas which are relatively inaccessible. Most of the Hindu Kush range is barren of wooded growth. The region of Nuristan, the most heavily forested area, has stands of pine, cypress, plane, and walnut. Timber from this region is floated by river to Jalalabad and to Pakistan. More scattered woods to the south of Kabul and Jalalabad in the Safid Kuh River valley furnish timber for Kabul. Throughout the rest of the country poplars grown in irrigated groves provide building material for houses and other construction. (3) Minerals. (a) Petroleum. Automotive transport, which plays an increasingly important role in Afghanistan's economy, and a considerable part of the nascent industry of the coun- try must rely on imported petroleum products until the still unproved local petroleum resources have been developed. The current consumption of gasoline exceeds 250,000 gallons a month and would be much increased if additional supplies were_ available. SECRET 10 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? SECRET Current supply must come either through Pakistan or from the USSR. In recent months the flow through Pakistan has been seriously curtailed. Oil deposits are known to exist in north and northwest Afghanistan. In 1935-36 both French and Japanese oil geologists were active in the country. Early in 1937 the Afghan Government granted a 60-year petroleum concession to the Inland Exploration Company, a subsidiary of the Seaboard Oil Company of Delaware.* The company was also authorized to explore Afghanistan for mineral deposits with the possibility that a mineral concession might be granted at a later date. Geologists of the company began field work in the fall of 1937, searching for both oil and mineral reserves. In June 1938 the company abruptly notified the Afghan Government that it was surrendering the concession. The reasons for this decision included the immi- nence of war, the failure of the prospectors to locate deposits in the southern desert basin within closer distance of the sea, and the discovery of rich fields at Bahrein. However, the field work had established the location of a number of anticlines in formations similar to those which prevail in the oil-producing region of the USSR to the north of Termez. These anticlines (shown as possible fields on Figure IV) stretch in a crescent from Herat to Khanabad, north of Mazar-i-Sharif, and it was esti- mated that they would yield an annual production of up to 10 million barrels with oil occurring at depths of about 5,000 feet. In ,September 1947 an American engineer in the employ of the Afghan Government recommended that test drilling be undertaken in the Shibarghan area. In the summer of 1948 a French engineer inspected the oil areas and made sub- stantially the same recommendations. The government hopes to bring in a producing field and to construct a refinery which will produce 10 million gallons of gasoline annu- ally for local use only. The government has expressed willingness to employ foreign capital in this undertaking, either in the form of a joint stock company backed by both Afghan and foreign funds or by the employment of a foreign firm to carry out a specific contract. (b) Other Minerals. No comprehensive survey of the mineral resources of Afghanistan has been made. In 1936 an official statement listed 571 mineral deposits, only a few of which are under exploitation at the present time. In 1937 the Afghanistan Mining Company was registered under joint German-Afghan ownership with Germany repre- sented by Krupp and four other firms, but the concession was later relinquished. The Inland Exploration Company did some field work in search of mineral deposits. (Fig- ure IV shows the location of those mineral deposits and mines for which reliable infor- mation is available.) Currently the Afghan Government is most interested in the exploita- tion of workable deposits of gold, coal, and salt. Residents of localities where such deposits may exist have been reluctant to volunteer information since the government * At the same time the Amiranian Oil Company, another subsidiary of the Seaboard Oil Com- pany, received from the Iranian Government a petroleum concession covering northeastern Iran. 11 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET not only has exclusive proprietary rights over subsurface deposits, but also drafts and underpays local labor in mining operations. Gold is reported at an old mine in the vicinity of Kandahar and from several placer sites or caves in gravel deposits in northeastern Afghanistan, quite close to the Soviet frontier. In January 1947 the Ministry of Mines suspended its monopoly rights on gold mining. With such mining free and in view of the current bazaar price of $80 an ounce, it is probable that the current annual production of 45,600 grams or 1,600 ounces will be considerably increased. Afghanistan hopes to exploit its coal reserves at the rate of 25,000 tons a year. At the request of the Afghan Government the Government of India sent spe- cialists who made fairly extensive surveys in 1936, 1938, and 1940-41. Five areas were defined. Two are south of the Hindu Kush: one of these is the Ghorband valley and the other includes sites north and east of Kabul where some coal is now mined. The three areas north of the Hindu Kush have a better quality coal. One such area, beyond Doab on the main road leading north from Kabul, includes the promising sites of Ish- pushta and Barfak. The second area is to the south of Khanabad in Badakhshan province, and the third is south of Mazar-i-Sharif. The last two areas are rather inac- cessible, and an American engineer in the employ of the Afghan Government rec- ommends that more extensive mining operations replace the primitive methods now being used at Ishpushta. Salt is found at several places in the northern foothills of the Hindu Kush, specifically in the vicinity of Talikan and near Khanabad in the same region. Two extensive deposits of iron ore have been reported by foreign spe- cialists: one at Aranj Khwa, south of Faizabad in northeastern Afghanistan, and the other south of Bulola on the main road from Kabul to the north of the country. This second deposit may stretch for a distance of 100 kilometers to the vicinity of Charikar. Deposits of copper ore with veins up to one meter in thickness exist in the Maidan dis- trict to the west of Kabul and have been mined by primitive methods. Important ancient lapis lazuli mines are found at Sar-i-Sang in the northeastern part of the country. Deposits of lead ore occur near the lapis lazuli mines and in the Ghorband valley, and promising samples of lead ore have been found in the vicinity of Herat. Asbestos has been mined in small amounts in the region south and east of Kabul. Samples of mica have been obtained from the Maidan district west of Kabul, and refractory grade chromite exists north of Jalalabad in the Logar valley. Fine marble is quarried and deposits of antimony, sulfur, and gypsum have been located. Local Afghan sources mention mines or deposits of silver, aluminum, nickel, tin, zinc, manganese, graphite, talc, and earth pigments, but precise information regarding these minerals is not available. While exact figures on current mineral production are lacking, the total production is certainly very slight. It is limited almost entirely to a considerable quantity of rock salt, a few thousand tons of coal, less than 2,000 ounces of gold, and some lapis lazuli. SECRET 12 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? 4, ? SECRET b. Industry.* By 1948 Afghanistan had some 25 enterprises equipped with modern power- driven machinery, chiefly hydroelectric. These installations include factories, mills, repair shops, and cotton gins. The plants, erected since 1930, are owned by companies open to private stockholders but are actually directed by the government since the gov- ernment-managed banks own a controlling interest in the various companies. The plants endeavor to fill certain staple requirements of the people?matches, canned fruit, soaps, furniture, automotive repair, and publications?and to contribute to other essential needs such as textiles and sugar. The cotton textile mill at Jebal-es-Siraj was constructed and equipped with German machinery in 1936-37, that at Pul-i-Khumri with British machinery in 1943-44. In 1946 these mills produced nearly 6,700,000 meters of cloth, or about 6 percent of the country's needs, and about 1 million pounds of cotton yarn. In 1945 the new woolen mill at Kandahar and the old mill at Kabul produced a total of 260,000 meters of woolen cloth and 600 tons of yarn. The beet sugar refinery erected at Baghlan in 1941 is equipped with Skoda machinery. Maximum rated production is 6,000 tons of sugar, but the actual annual output has not surpassed some 4,400 tons. Periodically the refinery is idle because of lack of beets. A second refinery is projected. With two plants in operation the coun- try's annual needs of approximately 9,000 tons of sugar might be met if an adequate quantity of beets were grown. An important segment of the infant industry of Afghanistan is centered at Kabul, which is also the site of the government arsenal. Installations at Kabul include a knitting mill, match factory, oxygen plant, slaughter house with cold storage facili- ties, furniture factory, a plant for working semi-precious and building stones, automo- tive repair shop, government printing plant, tannery, and an old woolen mill. Kanda- har has a cannery, Kunduz and Imam Sahib have small soap factories, and the sugar factory at Baghlan makes soap in the slack season. Some ten towns have power-driven cotton gins. Afghanistan has three hydroelectric plants, each capable of producing some 4,000 horsepower, which serve the cotton textile mills and the city of Kabul. There are small hydroelectric or Diesel-driven plants at about ten other sites. The industrial and power enterprises were designed and installed by foreign technicians. Germans led in this work and resided at Kabul to the number of some 150 until their expulsion during the recent war. American and Czech engineers are still employed by the government, and it is highly questionable whether the Afghans alone would be capable of running and maintaining the existing installations. The number of skilled or semi-skilled workmen in the entire country is very small, certainly not more than a few thousand, including truck drivers. Labor unions do not exist in Afghanistan. * See Map, Figure IV. 13 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET c. Transportation.* The motor roads of Afghanistan, constructed since 1930, are poor by US standards. The primary internal road system is the "great circle route." The north- ern half of the circle runs from Kabul through Mazar-i-Sharif to Herat, and the south- ern half from Kabul through Kandahar to Herat. Roads which lead into the neighbor- ing countries take off from the periphery of this circle. The main roads are, for the most part, surfaced with gravel but may become impassable when spring floods result in washouts and ruined bridges. In the winter snow may block passes in the northern section of the country. Caravan routes supplement the motor roads and still carry a considerable volume of traffic. In early 1948 Afghanistan had some 700 passenger cars, mostly Chevrolets, and some 3,450 trucks, mostly 3-ton Chevrolets or Internationals. Approximately 200 buses are also in operation. Most of the trucks and cars are postwar models. Both government-sponsored and private transport companies operate within the country. The operation of buses and trucks is hampered by uncertain road con- ditions, lack of repair facilities, and a shortage of gasoline and oil. The present road system is inadequate for the country's needs. Morrison-Knudsen-Afghanistan is cur- rently repairing a few important links. There are no railroads or air lines in Afghanistan. No significant traffic is car- ried by the rivers within the country. d. Finance. On the basis of the limited information released by the Afghan Government the financial position of the country seems to be sound, although facilities and resources for expanding operations are limited. Factors of strength include ample currency cov- erage, important reserves, and the fact that the government has no internal or external debts. Potential factors of weakness include the possibility that an abnormal condition abroad might shut off the sources of vitally needed foreign exchange and the fact that the international financial markets and institutions may view with skepticism the currency of a country which does not print a full financial statement. Internal expenditures are stated to be based upon a balanced budget, but the Afghan Government publishes no detailed figures regarding its financial operations. In early 1947 an official source stated that the annual revenue was $30,664,000. In the previous year about $41/2 million had been budgeted for the army and air force. Cus- toms receipts are believed to represent the largest single source of government revenue. In 1948 the government stated that its gold and dollar reserves, mostly on deposit in the US, amounted to $50 million. Afghanistan has three banks. The Bank of Afghanistan (Da Afghanistan Bank) , founded in 1938 at Kabul, is a government institution which performs the func- tions of a central bank and bank of issue, and handles transactions in foreign exchange. Its capital is $9 million and its accounts and deposits total over $16 million. Branches of the Bank of Afghanistan are located at Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, Andkhui, and Maimana. * See Appendix B. SECRET 14 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? ? SECRET The Bank of Afghanistan, with the sole right of note issue, prints notes of 500, 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, and 2 afghanis. Statutes require a note coverage of 50 percent in gold, silver, and foreign currency, but the Bank of Afghanistan states that the current cover- age is 100 percent. In March 1948 the official buying rate for Afghan currency was 14.0000 afghanis for $1.00 and the official selling rate 14.1773 for $1.00. The afghanis may also be sold and bought in the bazaars at a free rate which in early 1948 was 17 afghanis for $1.00. The Afghan National Bank (Bank-i-Millie) , founded in 1932, is considered a private commercial institution. However, its directorate includes high government officials, and its policies are controlled by the government through the Bank of Afghan- istan, which holds a portion of the bank shares. The president of this bank, who serves also as governor of the Bank of Afghanistan, is the Minister of National Economy. The Afghan National Bank has a capital of $23 million, and its accounts and deposits total over $86 million. In 1947 the government stated that the capital of this bank should be expanded by an additional $30 million in order to provide adequate funds for the development of agriculture and industry. A major part of the shares in the Afghan National Bank is held by the various joint stock companies (shirkats) for which the bank functions as a purchasing and selling agent, in New York through the Afghan American Trading Company and in Pakistan and India through the Afghan National Bank Ltd. In the spring of 1948 the Building and Loan Bank, with a capital of about $2 million, was established. This institution is not yet active, but its operations will be under state control; aside from making loans, it is also authorized to go into the actual construction business to build houses. e. International Trade. While Afghanistan's trade is unimportant to world markets, it is essential to the current economy of the country and to the furtherance of projects aimed at raising the country's economic level. Afghan trade has been disrupted and hampered by the shortages resulting from World War II, the grave dislocation of the economies of Pakistan and India, the confusion over attempts by India and Pakistan to collect cus- toms duties on their exports to Afghanistan, Afghanistan's reluctance to orient its economy toward the USSR, lower prices on the karakul market, and poor crops. It is impossible to obtain reliable figures on Afghanistan's 'trade during and after World War II. The following figures, submitted in March 1947 by the Afghan Government, seem to reflect 1945 statistics and disagree in part with other available information. They do, however, present a picture of the relative importance of the major items of Afghanistan's foreign trade. 15 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Commodity Karakul skins Other skins Wool Dried fruit Fresh fruit Cotton Textiles Tea Sugar Gasoline and motor oil Motor vehicles EXPORTS Amount 2,400,000 6,140,621 7,000 tons 14,711 tons 16,362 tons 8,000 tons IMPORTS 142,000,000 1,664 21,623 2,193,908 804 yards tons tons imperial gallons Value in Dollars $28,800,000 763,764 3,520,935 7,300,825 4,481,382 6,134,970 7,078,220 1,637,235 846,244 490,108 569,176 The very favorable balance of trade reflected by these figures is misleading and is achieved, in part at least, by the device of grossly underpricing staple imports such as textiles and sugar (listed at not more than 20 percent of actual value). Af- ghanistan has had a favorable balance of trade in recent years chiefly because war and postwar shortages limited the monetary value of imports while the continued export of karakul skins brought in considerable sums. A decline in the karakul market, and Afghanistan's need for larger quantities of machine equipment probably indicate that Afghanistan no longer has a favorable balance of trade. This conclusion is reinforced by the fact that in 1947 US imports from Afghanistan amounted to $37 million while the US exported to Afghanistan goods to the value of $47 million. Moreover, during the first months of the same year the value of items passing across the frontier between Afghanistan and India showed a monthly balance of nearly $2 million unfavorable to Afghanistan. As the above tables show, Afghanistan's chief exports are karakul skins, agri- cultural products, and wool. Some years ago the market for karakul skins was at Leipzig; later it shifted to London. After 1939 the market moved to New York with the US taking nearly all the karakul from Afghanistan and hence representing the country's principal source of foreign exchange. Between 1932 and 1944 Afghanistan's export of karakul fluctuated widely but seems to have been somewhat under 2 million skins per year. In 1945 karakul skins were sold abroad to the amount of over $28 million. In early 1946 karakul skins were selling for $13.50 apiece, but declined to $9, and nearly 2 million skins already shipped abroad remained unsold. During 1947 the market began to recover. By the end of the year London was again buying about 25 percent of the skins. The $37 million worth of exports to the US in 1947 consisted almost exclusively of karakul skins. Agricultural products, particularly fresh and dried fruits (grapes, pomegran- ates, melons, apples, raisins, and apricots) and nuts, have always found a ready market in India. Although the abnormal conditions currently prevailing in India and Pakistan SECRET 16 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET have sharply curtailed Afghanistan's exports to these countries, they still remain the chief market of these products. Raw wool, not of top quality, produced chiefly in the northern parts of Afghanistan, has been and is a chief export to the USSR. During World War II when almost no trade existed between the USSR and Afghanistan thousands of tons of wool were inadequately stored in the northern area, since it was not profitable to ship it over a long and difficult route to India and thence to world markets. In November 1947 Afghanistan and the USSR signed an agreement for the purchase-exchange of specific amounts of certain items. Afghanistan was to export between 6,000 and 7,000 metric tons of wool and in return the USSR agreed to export to Afghanistan about 7,500 tons of gasoline and kerosene, 4,000 tons of sugar and specific manufactured items. The transfer of goods was carried out in a satisfactory manner, and in August 1948 a second purchase-exchange agreement was announced in Kabul. Between 15 August 1948 and 30 September 1949 the USSR is to receive 6,600 tons of wool (valued at $3,259,000) ; in exchange Afghanistan is to receive 3,000 tons of gasoline, 2,000 tons of kerosene, 3,000 tons of sugar, 6,500,000 meters of cloth, 10,000 square meters of glass, and 300 tons of galvanized iron. Afghanistan's cotton is not an export of major importance because current cotton production has dropped to a point where it is little more than sufficient to supply the local cotton cloth industry. The drop in production occurred in 1946 when the government removed the regulations governing cotton planting and many farmers turned at once to wheat growing. Any cotton available for export finds a ready market in India. The chief imports of Afghanistan are textiles, tea, sugar, automotive and ma- chine equipment, and oil products. Figures compiled in early 1947 show 36 percent of Afghanistan's imports by value originating in the US, 35 percent in India and Pakistan, and the remainder in other countries. A relatively small amount of manufactured goods comes from the UK. While Japan occupied first place in supplying Afghanistan with goods before World War II, during the war India attained that position through its ability to supply goods normally obtained from other sources. Nearly all of Afghanistan's textiles, sugar, and tea were imported from India during and immediately after the war. In 1947 the chaotic conditions attendant to the creation of an independent India and Pakistan brought grave dislocation not only to their own economy but also to that of Afghanistan. Since less than 10 percent of Afghan's textiles are locally produced, textiles are probably the single most important import item. India continues to furnish a large percentage of this essential item with the US and the USSR furnishing smaller amounts. India and Pakistan supply Afghanistan's tea needs. In accordance with the 1947 trade agreement the USSR delivered 4,000 tons of sugar to Afghanistan. Local production and imports through Pakistan and India sup- plement the Soviet supply. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Automotive and machine equipment and other manufactured items are im- ported chiefly from the US. Since 1945 the Afghan Government has purchased a new fleet of trucks and buses (about 3,000 vehicles) from the US. Replacements, spare parts, and tires continue to come from the US. Oil products are vital to Afghanistan's transportation system. Pakistan's current inability to deliver an adequate supply of these products has created serious economic problems. The oil shortages in the northern part of the country are cur- rently alleviated by delivery of the gasoline and kerosene arranged for in the Soviet- Afghan purchase-exchange. Afghanistan, realizing that oil shortage will probably continue, is interested in developing its own oil resources to a point where they will cover domestic needs. The conduct of foreign trade has been in the hands of companies (shirkats) financed jointly by private capital and by the government, with the government exercis- ing control over their operations. These companies were created in order to expand industry and foreign trade with Afghan resources instead of foreign capital. The first company was formed in 1932; in 1941 some 50 companies were licensed to conduct business or industrial enterprises; a recent 1948 study reports 138 such companies. Some of these companies have or have had monopolies, such as the Afghan Sugar Manufacturing Company which produces sugar but also controls imports and sales of sugar. Another company handles the import and sale of motor vehicles. By contrast a dozen or more companies engage in the export of karakul. While companies operate in all fields of domestic and foreign commerce, private individuals do engage in trade. For example, The Afghan Commercial Company in New York acts as an agent for private capital interested in foreign trade. Tariff on its foreign trade is an important source of revenue for the Afghan Government. Imports pay ad valorem duties ranging from 5 percent to 35 percent, and export taxes levied on most items run from 10 percent to 30 percent. However, free entry has recently been granted for machinery and other materials related to the indus- trial development and for trucks, tires, spare parts, and gasoline. Purchases abroad involving foreign exchange must be approved by the Bank of Afghanistan, and luxury goods may not be imported. For a brief period in' 1947 exchange controls were lifted. They have recently been re-imposed with the provision that merchants and companies may hold 20 percent of the foreign exchange receiyed from karakul sales and 100 percent a exchange received from other exports. However, companies holding foreign exchange must still obtain government permission to spend it on imports. The practice of granting monopolistic importing and exporting rights tends to, restrict the number of individuals or firms engaged in trade in a given com- modity. Since this is not one of the essential purposes in the creation of companies, the government has announced its desire gradually to abolish monopolies as far as possible. 4. ECONOMIC STABILITY. Several factors favor the economic stability of the country. Normal harvests yield adequate food supplies for the population, except for sugar and-tea; surplus agricultural SECRET 18 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? ? SECRET and livestock products are available in quantity and normally find a relatively stable foreign market; karakul sales provide a continuing source of foreign exchange; and the financial position of the country is good. There are also less favorable aspects. Afghanistan has no deep-water access of its own so that its entire foreign trade is dependent upon the situation prevailing in adja- cent countries, particularly Pakistan, as well as on the good will of these countries. The country also lacks adequate capital for developing its natural resources and expanding its industry. Moreover, the mass of people may become increasingly unwilling to pro- duce under a closely controlled economic system which does not provide for an even distribution of benefits. The government is faced with the necessity of halting and, if possible, of turning back the inflationary trend in the cost of living. With the year 1938 representing an index figure of 100, by 1946 the cost of living had risen to 600 for cereals, 300 for mutton, butter, milk, fruit, and vegetables, and 450 for consumer goods. The Ministry of National Economy has proposed a 12-year comprehensive economic development program under which major attention will be concentrated on increasing agricultural production by the construction of irrigation projects, and on the improve- ment of transportation facilities. In early 1948 Afghanistan hoped to implement this program by obtaining a loan of $100 million from the US. 19 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET SECTION III FOREIGN AFFAIRS 1. GENESIS OF THE PRESENT FOREIGN POLICY. The year 1919 marked the beginning of Afghanistan's complete independence in foreign relations. Between 1919 and 1921 travelling emissaries negotiated a number of agreements with other nations, apparently in the belief that widespread recognition of the country's independence might be a factor in preserving that same independence. Since that time Afghanistan's foreign policy has been to maintain correct relations with a number of nations while allowing special privileges to none of them. The Afghans have continued to fear the USSR and to dislike and mistrust the UK and have avoided entanglement with either country. Afghanistan maintained a neutral policy during both World Wars in spite of the fact that popular feeling favored the opponents of Great Britain and Russia in both instances. During this same period nearly all relations with other countries have been carried on through governmental channels and agencies; direct foreign contacts by private individuals have been avoided. How- ever, the ruling class of the country now appears ready to open up the country to a much greater extent and to solicit the aid of those nations which are believed to harbor no designs against Afghanistan. 2. PRESENT RELATIONS WITH FOREIGN NATIONS. a. The UK. Although Afghanistan did not win the Third Afghan-British War and by the terms of the Treaty of Rawalpindi of 8 August 1919 lost an annual subsidy, the country did obtain from Great Britain complete liberty in external affairs. On 22 November 1921 the two nations signed a treaty at Kabul. Its several articles re-affirmed the complete independence of Afghanistan; provided for the establishment of a British Legation at Kabul and British consulates at Jalalabad and Kandahar; and stated that Great Britain would sell material needed for the modernization of the country. It also affirmed that no customs duty would be levied upon goods landed in India and des- tined for immediate transport to Afghanistan; and declared that so long as the inten- tions of the Afghan Government were friendly and no immediate danger from such traffic threatened India, permission would be given by Great Britain for the import of arms and ammunition through India. In a letter pertinent to the treaty, Afghanistan stated that the USSR would not be permitted to establish consulates in sections of the country adjacent to the Indian frontier. During the following years both parties maintained normal and friendly rela- tions. However, Great Britain made no effort to aid Afghanistan in developing its industry, and the Afghans turned to Germany for machinery and technicians. Pos- sibly Great Britain preferred to see Afghanistan remain as an amalgamation of war-like 21 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET tribes. The British continued to sell military supplies to the Afghan Government, and British nationals are still attached to the Afghan Air Force. At present the UK maintains an Embassy at Kabul and consulates at Kanda- har and Jalalabad. Trade between the two countries is not on a large scale. The UK is currently concerned over the possibility that its withdrawal from India may deliver Afghanistan into the Soviet sphere and therefore welcomes increasing US activity in the country. In the future the British consulates at Kandahar and Jalalabad may be operated by Pakistan. b. The USSR. Afghanistan was the first country to recognize the revolutionary government of Russia, recognition being embodied in a letter of 7 April 1919 from King Amanullah to Lenin just before Amanullah began the Third Afghan-British War. On 27 May 1919 the Soviets, in turn, became the first country to recognize the new Afghan Government. Afghanistan's recognition of the USSR was inspired less by sentiments of friendship than by a desire to obtain support against Great Britain. Although the two countries observe formally cordial relations, as indicated by various treaties and agreements in recent years, Afghanistan has become increasingly suspicious of the USSR. The Afghans, shocked by Soviet excesses during a period of political purges in the late thirties, gave asylum to certain tribal refugees. The USSR closed all Afghan consulates within its borders; the Afghans retaliated by closing the Soviet consulates in Afghanistan. Moreover, the Afghans, like the Turks and the Iranians, feel that the USSR constitutes a potential threat to their independence. The belief is current that long-range Soviet plans for India involve military operations across Afghanistan and that, since the Afghan Army could not offer effective resistance to such a move, the USSR would not trouble to make warning demands in advance of the invasion. The USSR also disapproves of US activity in Afghanistan. Soviet broadcasts declare that US agents infiltrate the country under the guise of "specialists" and that roads and other public works under construction are actually war preparations directed against the USSR. In 1947 the Soviet Ambassador in Kabul expressed to Afghan offi- cials his objections to any plan leading to foreign technicians' working on airfields in northern Afghanistan, and in early 1948 Radio Moscow charged the Afghan Govern- ment with direct responsibility for US construction works planned for military use against the USSR. The USSR has not undertaken an organized propaganda campaign against the Afghan Government or people, and there is no available evidence of efforts to spread Communistic doctrine through the country. The Soviet press, on at least one occasion, has alluded to the close affinities existing between the Turkomen, Uzbeks, and Tajiks of northern Afghanistan with the same population groups within the USSR, and in May 1948 Afghan delegates attended a celebration in Soviet Tashkent commemorating a mediaeval Uzbek poet. Also, some clandestine activity is certainly carried on by Soviet agents among the Uzbeks and Tajiks. In 1946 and again in 1948 the Afghan authorities arrested several Soviet agents, reportedly provided with radio receiver-transmitters, in the northeastern part of the country. SECRET 22 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? ? SECRET The first pact between the USSR and Afghanistan was a Treaty of Friendship signed on 28 February 1921. It provided for the opening of seven Afghan consulates in the USSR and five Soviet consulates in Afghanistan (at Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kan- dahar, Kaznein, and Maimana). Under the terms of the treaty the USSR would also undertake to give material and financial assistance to Afghanistan, but in practice this assistance was limited to subsidies granted during the first few years following ratifica- tion of the treaty. The original agreement was expanded by a Treaty of Neutrality and Non-Aggression on 31 August 1926 and one of similar title on 24 June 1931. On 29 March 1936 a protocol prolonging the 1931 treaty was signed. A trade agreement was concluded between the two countries on 23 July 1940. On 13 June 1946 Afghanistan and the USSR signed a Frontier Agreement, and since that date special commissions have been carrying out the actual demarcation of the boundary between the two countries. The conclusion of commercial agreements in November 1947 and August 1948 covering exchange of certain specific items marked a revival of trade relations which had declined sharply during the war. The USSR is represented in Afghanistan by an embassy at Kabul with a staff of about eighty Soviet nationals. No other Soviet citizens are legally resident in the country. The USSR has made no serious effort to expand its political or cultural rela- tions with Afghanistan, although it has indicated a willingness to help in the develop- ment of northern resources. c. The US. In 1921 an Afghan mission visited the US and expressed a desire to initiate diplomatic relations. However, relations were not inaugurated until 1935 when the US Minister to Iran was concurrently accredited to Afghanistan, and it was not until June 1942 that the US opened a legation at Kabul. In 1948 both countries raised their respective missions to embassy rank. Before 1942, only a few Americans, including the mineral and petroleum geolo- gists of the Inland Exploration Company, had visited Afghanistan. As soon as the US Legation was opened, however, Afghanistan began to display an active friendship for the US. The country harbored pro-Axis sentiments but was hemmed in by the Allies during World War II and was forced to cooperate with them. Of these Allies only the Americans were welcome to the Afghans. The period following the end of World War II has seen a steady development of US-Afghan relations. The withdrawal of the UK from India has destroyed the balance of power in the general area, and the Afghans look to the US to fill this void. The Afghan Government is also anxious to employ compe- tent technicians and experts to help modernize the country; such personnel may be found in the US. In 1946 the Morrison-Knudsen International Company was engaged to survey and execute engineering projects within Afghanistan. A special subsidiary company, Morrison-Knudsen-Afghanistan, is currently constructing roads and irrigation projects and the Afghan Government has set aside sufficient dollars for the payment of the $17,400,000 contract. In the summer of 1948 MKA and the Afghan Government were negotiating a new contract reportedly for $30 million for a five-year program. 23 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Some 30 American teachers have been engaged to staff the Habibiya College and the Teacher's Training College at Kabul and two secondary schools at Kandahar. The Government of Afghanistan employs an American mining engineer and a city plan- ning engineer; the Ministry of Finance is anxious to obtain the services of US experts in finance, accounting, and statistics. In 1946 the US shipped much needed wheat and flour to Afghanistan. The Afghan Army has acquired two US Army hospitals with complete equipment for 500 beds and wishes to employ three American technicians to supervise the installation of the equipment. The Afghan Government has also dis- played interest in obtaining US arms and in having officers trained in the US and is exchanging air attaches with the US. A number of Afghan students are currently enrolled in educational institutions in the US. Afghanistan has shown an interest in obtaining a loan of $100 million (but would probably be willing to accept $50 million) from the US for the execution of an economic development program. The subject was raised informally during the visit of the Prime Minister to the US in August 1947, and pursued more directly by the Minis- ter of National Economy during his visit to the US in late summer 1948. The Minis- ter of Public Works, visiting the US in the spring of 1948, likewise discussed the proposed loan and also asked for the good offices of the US Government in resolving the dispute between Afghanistan and Iran over the distribution of the water of the Helmand River. - There is also the possibility that an American firm may be invited to participate in the exploitation of Afghanistan's oil reserves. d. Iran, Turkey, and other Moslem Countries of the Middle East. Among the Moslem countries of the Near East only Iran and Turkey have rela- tions of any importance with Afghanistan. The three countries and Iraq joined in the Saadabad Pact of 8 July 1937, still in force, which was designed to insure peace and secu- rity in the area through mutual pledges of non-aggression. The pact also contains a provision for consultation in case of international conflicts affecting the mutual inter- ests of the signatories, but this clause was not invoked by any of the signatory powers during World War II. Relations between Afghanistan and Iran are rather static, and- trade between the two countries amounts to little. A source of past and present dispute is the Hel- mand River, which is used for irrigation purposes by both countries. Most of the course of the stream is within Afghanistan, and in years of sub-normal precipitation little or no water reaches the province of Sistan in Iran. This situation prevailed in 1947 and 1948 and has given rise to an acrimonious dispute between the two states. The US has shown a willingness to help in the establishment of permanent regulations covering the distribution of the water of the Helmand. Relations with modern Turkey began with the Treaty of Alliance of 1 March 1921. Its articles recognized the spiritual leadership of Turkey as the seat of the Islamic Caliphate; included a defensive alliance; and provided for a Turkish military mission to the Afghans. In more recent years, and following the abolition of the Caliph- ate by Turkey and the severing of religious bonds, relations between the two countries have become less important. However, a small Turkish mission is still attached to the SECRET 24 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET Afghan Army. A Turkish medical mission was at Kabul until 1946, and a Turkish economic mission is still active there. Egypt, Transjordan, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq have diplomatic representatives at Kabul. Indonesia, another Moslem country, recently indicated its intention of opening a legation at Kabul. In the summer of 1948, as a result of the Palestine situation, pro-Arab feeling increased in Afghanistan and funds to aid the Arabs were collected publicly. e. India and Pakistan. Afghanistan's relations with these two dominions began on 15 August 1947. Afghanistan has since exchanged ambassadors with India and Pakistan. These coun- tries conduct important trade relations, and in the case of each country some of the items imported from the other are not readily obtainable from other sources. Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are affected by the former's inter- est in the tribesmen of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) , known as Pathans. The Government of Afghanistan considers these people to be Afghans. They are in fact ethnically a part of the so-called true Afghan tribes, and successful opposition by the Afghans to former British encroachment is credited largely to the resistance of these tribes. Many Afghans believe that the area inhabited by them should be merged with Afghanistan, but the elder statesmen appreciate the danger of attempting to absorb within their country an additional 3 million people, many of them armed and unruly tribal groups, and hence tend to restrain expansionist sentiment. They insist, how- ever, that the tribesmen's future is a matter of rightful interest to Afghanistan. Under the administrative procedure followed by the British while in control of India, the continued existence of the NWF tribesmen as a distinct group was assured. With the British gone and a Moslem Government of Pakistan established, the Afghans fear that tribal interests may eventually be sufficiently merged with those of Pakistan to destroy the prevailing feeling of kinship between the tribesmen and the Afghans generally, with a corresponding weakening of Afghanistan's military potential. As long ago as 1944, the Afghan Government suggested to the British that if India were to be granted independence, the people of the NWFP and adjacent areas of Baluchistan should be allowed to determine their constitutional future. Afghanistan received the very definite impression that a plebiscite would be held, but it was subse- quently made known to the Afghans that neither the British Government nor the Gov- ernment of India as then constituted could entertain proposals from a foreign power regarding territory which had been established as an integral part of India. Neverthe- less, upon the UK's announcement of the decision in 1947 to partition India into the dominions of Pakistan and India, the Afghan Government permitted a violent press and radio campaign for the creation of an independent "Pathanistan." After the estab- lishment of Pakistan and the inclusion of the areas concerned in that dominion, Afghan- istan demanded of the Government of Pakistan that complete autonomy be conceded to the areas by treaty between the Governments. of Pakistan and Afghanistan. At the end of August, King Mohammed Zahir Shah, in a speech from the throne, stated: "We only desire that the Afghans on the other side of the Durand Line 25 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET (the frontier between Afghanistan and the North West Frontier area) be recognized as a separate entity. The decision as to their future should be entrusted to them uncon- ditionally." On 30 September 1947 the Afghan delegate cast the only vote against the admission of Pakistan to the UN, offering the objection that a fair plebiscite had not been held in the North West Frontier Province. However, shortly thereafter the Afghan Government sent a message to the Secretary General of the UN reversing this vote. That relations between the two countries now appear relatively amicable, de- spite Pakistan's rejection of the Afghan demands, is due to two factors. The first of these is Pakistan's current policy toward the tribesmen: the withdrawal of all troops from the tribal areas and the entrustment of some local administration to the tribesmen themselves?a policy which has informally established general conditions very similar to those which Afghanistan had previously attempted to set up by treaty. The second factor is Afghanistan's realization of the importance of maintaining friendly relations with Pakistan, which is a gateway for the Afghan's vital foreign commerce. The uncer- tain allegiance of the tribesmen themselves, however, and the conflicting interests of the two countries remain potential sources of trouble. f. Other Countries. France has maintained a Legation at Kabul since 1923, although official rela- tions began on 28 April 1922, while later a convention gave the French Republic the exclusive privilege of conducting archaeological excavations in Afghanistan for a period of thirty years. A limited amount of archaeological work has been carried on up to the present time. Since 1924 French teachers have been ori the staff of the Esteglal College, a Franco-Afghan institution at Kabul. In 1947 a complete French staff took over the management of the hospital at the University of Kabul. According to statements made by French officials, the interest of their country in Afghanistan is entirely on the cultural level. France has long been the interpreter of Western culture to the Middle East, and the French still struggle to hold their leader- ship in this field. Afghanistan and China maintain diplomatic relations and have a common, roughly defined frontier some 30 miles in length where the Wakhan corridor of Afghan- istan adjoins Chinese Sinkiang. Although this border has been closed since 1933 a few former residents of Sinkiang were given permission to leave Afghanistan and return to China via this frontier in 1947. g. International Organizations. In 1934 Afghanistan, despite its relative isolation and paucity of foreign rela- tions, joined and actively supported the League of Nations. On 19 November 1946 Afghanistan became a member of the United Nations; in the deliberations of the UN, Afghanistan has generally supported the other Moslem states, voting against the parti- tion of Palestine and for the admission of Transjordan to the UN. It has avoided voting on numerous controversial issues between the USSR and the US, apparently to keep from offending the USSR. SECRET 26 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET Afghanistan also maintains membership in the International Labor Organiza- tion, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Telecommunications Union, International Postal Union, International Trade Organization, and the World Health Organization. 27 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? ? SECRET SECTION IV MILITARY SITUATION 1. GENESIS OF PRESENT MILITARY POLICIES. Afghanistan has maintained a regular standing army since early in the nineteenth century. However, in all major operations, such as the Afghan-British wars, the best fighting has been done by irregular tribal forces. The most recent action by the Afghan Army against foreign opposition was that of the Third Afghan-British war of 1919. After 1919 King Amanullah neglected the training, equipment, and morale of the army, and when civil revolt broke out in 1928 the force disintegrated. In 1929 King Nadir Shah began the task of building up an efficient, loyal regular army and his brothers have carried out this policy. The size of the army has been steadily increased, special schools have been opened, and volun- tary enlistment has been encouraged. Moreover, the government has foreign training missions engaged, and has introduced some standardization of weapons. Since 1930 the army has conducted several successful campaigns against tribal groups. Present military policy is concerned primarily with the maintenance of internal security. For this purpose the bulk of the army is stationed south of the Hindu Kush range and faces the border of the former North West Frontier Province. The most unruly of the Afghan tribes inhabit both sides of the border, and the possibility of disorder is ever present. Military policy is also concerned with defense against foreign invasion. In case of invasion Afghanistan will place strong reliance upon irregular tribal forces, skilled in guerrilla warfare, and find its greatest reservoir of strength among those same tribes which are a dormant threat to internal security in time of peace. The fact that these tribes would certainly rise against an invasion is one reason why the government does not attempt to disarm them. The estimated annual defense budget for the year 1946-47 was $4,600,000, of which $770,000 was assigned to the air force. 2. STRENGTH AND DISPOSITION OF THE ARMED FORCES. a. Army. The current strength of the Afghan Army is probably above 70,000 including 3,500 officers. The army is organized into eleven divisions, five of them being grouped into two corps; the other six being independent provincial divisions. There are also two independent mixed brigades and a Royal Bodyguard. About 80 percent of the force is stationed in the Kabul area and in the southern and eastern part of the coun- try adjacent to the Pakistan frontier. The Kabul Army Corps is the best trained, organized, and equipped unit. The Southern Province Army Corps has its headquar- ters at Gardez. The bulk of the independent divisions generally have their head- quarters at provincial capitals with units scattered about the provinces. 29 SECRET I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Army strength is maintained by compulsory military service, all males between 22 and 28 being liable for two years' service (though many choose to serve for a longer period) . The army inducts annually an average of 28,500 men. The government calls up conscripts by a system of drawings, or by issuing definite quotas of conscripts to the tribal leaders. Certain of the tribes are opposed to conscription, and the issue has been the cause of numerous tribal incidents and uprisings. Morale of the troops in provincial divisions is fair; morale in the Kabul area is good. Officer candidates are trained at Kabul in the Military School and in the Military College. Between the two World Wars a few officers were trained in Turkey, Italy, France, and the USSR. In 1946 and again in 1947 a group of selected officers and NCO's was sent to India for training, but the second group returned after a few months because of the unsettled conditions in India. Turkey has supplied five military missions to the Afghan Army, from 1920 until the present. Members of these missions have been instructors in the military schools and advisers to the Ministry of War. Following World War II re-organization of the army was undertaken on the British-India Army model, and British small arms were adopted as standard equipment. During 1945-46 considerable military equipment was ordered from the Gov- ernment of India; by midsummer of 1948 only a portion of the order had been delivered. Major items in this order are 52,000 .303 caliber British Lee-Enfield rifles with bayonets, and 52,000,000 rounds of ammunition; 2,726 light and medium machine guns with ammunition; 228 mortars with ammunition; bulk explosives and a few howitzers and field guns. Also included are a few light tanks, armored carriers and cars, signal equip- ment, clothing and miscellaneous items. The firm of Skoda maintains an office at Kabul, and it has been reported that contracts with the Czechs provide for delivery of 3,000 tons of ammunition in the next three years. Munitions ordered from India are to be supplied during the next four or five years as needed. The new equipment will supplement and supplant in part an assortment of older Soviet, Italian, German, British, French, and Czech arms, which include small arms, machine guns, anti-tank, anti-aircraft, and artillery pieces (chiefly 75-mm). Nearly all this equipment is obsolete for modern warfare but can be used in the mainte- nance of internal order by the government. In the summer of 1948 Afghanistan informally indicated an interest in securing US military equipment including artillery, mortars, tanks, and motor equipment. b. Navy. Afghanistan has no navy. c. Air Force. The Afghan Air Force numbers approximately 500, including 150 officers. It is organized into three attack squadrons with a total of 22 planes and one transport squadron of eight planes. The aircraft are all obsolete type (Hawker Hind, Romeo, and Tiger Moth). SECRET 30 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? ? SECRET The pilot strength is less than 50 men. Some of the pilots and ground per- sonnel were sent abroad for instruction while the rest were trained locally by foreign instructors. Currently a small British training mission is stationed at Kabul. The Afghans have displayed little flying ability, and their knowledge of maintenance is inadequate. There are no trained navigators or bombardiers. The home station of the air force is at Kabul, but in the winter detachments are sent to Jalalabad. In early 1948 a contract was concluded with the UK for the purchase of 12 Avro Anson XIX aircraft, some of which were delivered during the summer of 1948. The present air force is probably effective for tribal operations but would be useless against a modern air force or if opposed by anti-aircraft guns. d. Gendarmerie. The gendarmerie which numbers approximately 15,000 men, is designed mainly to maintain public order. Average annual induction for the gendarmerie is 8,500. At the same time, the stationing of some 30 percent of the total strength in the north for garrisoning frontier posts and maintaining border patrols makes it pos- sible to reduce the number of regular troops in the area and thus to allay Soviet sus- picions. The gendarmerie is armed with rifles and light automatic weapons. The gendarmerie was established in 1945 to replace the older kotwali, or provincial police force under the Ministry of the Interior. The local governors largely control the units assigned to their provinces. In the event of war, it is understood that the army commander in a given theatre of operations will assume command of all forces (army, gendarmerie, and levies) in that theatre. e. Quasi-Military Forces. Gendarmerie units are not stationed in certain tribal areas in the Kabul, Kandahar, Southern and Eastern Provinces, where the government permits local tribal chiefs to employ armed tribesmen called Khassadars to niaintain order and to pro- tect traffic moving through these regions. The Khassadars are paid by the government and are subject to call with their chiefs as levies en masse in case of need. The total number of Khassadars is roughly 1,000. A similar irregular tribal levy, the Urgun Militia, consisting of 1,000 men, one-third of whom are on active duty at a time, main- tain order in the Urgun area. Municipal police, numbering about 2,000 and mostly unarmed, are maintained only in the cities. 3. WAR POTENTIAL. a. Manpower. Afghanistan has, by conservative estimate, 1,800,000 males between the ages of 15 and 49.* The total number of Afghans who have received regular training with modern weapons is about 260,000. This figure is made up of the 70,000 men in the reg- ular army, the 15,000 in the gendarmerie, and between 150,000 and 200,000 former * This US Army estimate is based on a total population of 8,000,000. If a figure of 12,000,000 is accepted as the total population, the estimate must be revised upward to approximately 3,000,000. 31 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET army and gendarmerie conscripts. Some 240,000 tribesmen, armed with their own rifles, could be mobilized in part in case of national emergency. Thus, the maximum armed manpower of the country totals roughly 500,000. The government in case of a national emergency could probably not mobilize more than 200,000 to 300,000 men at one time. The Afghans, especially the members of the true Afghan tribes and the Tajiks, make hardy, brave soldiers. There is a scarcity of officer personnel, and the Afghan officers are generally not capable of directing complicated military operations. In case of a general mobilization, former conscripts would serve as "fillers" in existing units and in newly created units, while tribal forces would remain under their own tribal leaders. The tribal forces would be most effective in guerrilla war- fare on home terrain. Their miscellaneous equipment, their independence, and their lack of training would greatly limit their general military usefulness. b. Natural Resources. Afghanistan produces ample food supplies for the maintenance of its armed forces. However, it is not probable that the army possesses large stocks of grain and other foods. Data concerning stocks of petroleum products are not available, but such stocks would probably be exhausted by a few weeks of unusual demands. c. Industry. Local industries produce only a part of the boots, cotton, and woolen cloth used by the army. The only arms production of the country is at the Kabul arsenal which is largely equipped with obsolete machinery purchased in 1907. In the past this arsenal has turned out artillery pieces, machine guns, rifles, and ammunition; at present it is making only small quantities of ammunition. Arms and ammunition are currently purchased from the UK, India, and Czechoslovakia in amounts not large enough to build up impressive reserves. All modern military equipment must be imported. 4. MILITARY INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES. a. Army Plans. The army has two active functions. Troops stationed in the Kabul area insure the stability of the government. Troops stationed in the east and south control the unruly tribes. Officials of the government hold divergent views with regard to tribal policy. Some favor a policy of conciliation while the army leaders favor a show of strength and, if necessary, the use of force. The latter policy which has been in the ascendancy might have a damaging long-term effect in alienating the tribes from sup- porting the government in time of national emergency. Military planning is limited to the defense of the frontiers of the country, specifically against invasion by the USSR, although it is questionable whether the Afghan Army has a thoroughly coordinated plan of defense. Since the Afghan Army is based on the opposite side of the lofty Hindu Kush range from the Soviet frontier, SECRET 32 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? ? SECRET it would be almost impossible to oppose invasion in the region of the actual frontier. Resistance would probably be concentrated in the few high passes of the Hindu Kush. b. Military Capabilities. Inadequate modern equipment, lack of properly trained officer personnel, indif- ferent morale, lack of mobility, and dependence upon imported military supplies would make it very difficult for the Afghan Army command to execute specific plans. The army could not withstand attack by a larger power. It would probably split up into small units which together with the tribesmen, would wage guerrilla warfare over familiar terrain. On several occasions since 1930 the army has shown an ability to deal with serious tribal threats to internal security; the armed forces should be able to maintain such control unless the situation is drastically disturbed by other acts of the govern- ment or by foreign interference. The present and planned purchases of arms and ammunition should strengthen its ability to maintain order but will not measurably increase its ability to meet substantial foreign aggression. 33 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? ? SECRET SECTION V STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS AFFECTING US SECURITY 1. THE IMPORTANCE OF AFGHAN INDEPENDENCE. Afghanistan is important to US security because it lies across the direct path of Soviet expansion to Pakistan and India. If the country fell under Soviet domination, the USSR would (1) have extended its control to the borders of Pakistan and India; (2) come within easy striking distance of the Indian Ocean; (3) threaten the eastern flank of neighboring Iran; (4) gain possible additional oil reserves which could be exploited and transported into the Soviet Union; and (5) undermine the will of other Near and Middle East countries to resist Soviet aggression. It is unlikely that the USSR would occupy Afghanistan except as an operation to facilitate a thrust into Pakistan and India. 2. FACTORS PROMOTING CONTINUED INDEPENDENCE. Currently, the greatest factor favoring the maintenance of Afghan independence is the USSR's apparent lack of interest in the country. In contrast to its activities vis-A-vis its other Near and Middle East neighbors, the USSR has made no formal demands upon Afghanistan, has issued no threats, and has not carried on an organized propaganda campaign against the people or the government, although it has been critical of current US activity in Afghanistan. This lack of interest probably arises from the fact that Afghanistan itself contains little of immediate value to the USSR and could be readily occupied by the Soviet Army should the occasion arise. A second factor is the strong anti-Soviet sentiment of the Afghan Government and of most of the people, who are devout Moslems. Under current conditions Soviet and Communist propaganda would reach only a very limited audience; any manifes- tations of interest in it would be promptly suppressed by the government. Afghan independence is also bolstered by US and UK policy. Moreover, the Afghan Govern- ment is desirous of strengthening its ties with the US and of aligning itself with Turkey and Iran, which count on US support against Soviet aggression. 3. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST CONTINUED INDEPENDENCE. Factors militating against continued Afghan independence are the recent with- drawal of the UK from India, where the British have strongly opposed Russian expan- sion southward toward the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean for a period of over a hundred years, and the general decline of British influence and power. The lack of real cohesion among the various population elements of the country also serves to weaken Afghanistan's ability to resist threats to its independence. The least loyal groups are those in areas adjacent to the Afghan-Soviet frontier; also, the warlike eastern and southern tribes resent any central control. Afghanistan is so remotely situated that help sent to aid the country against Soviet aggression would arrive too late. Afghanistan itself has no military estab- lishment capable of waging effective modern warfare. 35 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET ? SECTION VI ? ? PROBABLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING US SECURITY In view of the Afghanistan's strategic location adjacent to Iran and between the So- viet Union and the Indian subcontinent, it is hardly probable that the USSR will remain indifferent indefinitely. Although military occupation of Afghanistan may be expected only in connection with a Soviet operation involving India and Pakistan, the USSR may launch intensified radio and press attacks on Afghanistan (and also on the US) as a result of continuing US assistance to and interest in the country. In this connection, the USSR may apply direct diplomatic pressure on Afghanistan. Moreover, subversive activities may be increased among those tribal groups which have racial and linguistic affinities with peoples inside the Soviet Union. Moslem Afghanistan, however, will continue to resist Communist influence, and so long as the USSR does not resort to force, or a strong threat of force, Afghanistan will strengthen its ties with the Western Powers, especially the US. Under a strong, closely knit, paternalistic oligarchy, Afghanistan should remain politically and economically stable, despite the irritant of Pathan tribesmen of the Pakistan frontier, and the existence in the north of tribal groups ethnically con- nected with Soviet peoples. Continuing and increased violence in the India-Pakistan situation would result in serious economic difficulties for Afghanistan which might ultimately have adverse effects on the political stability of the government. 37 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? SECRET APPENDIX A TOPOGRAPHY AND CLIMATE Afghanistan is a completely landlocked country, bounded on the north by the USSR, on the extreme northeast by a narrow strip of Chinese territory, on the east and south by Pakistan, and on the west by Iran. Afghanistan covers some 260,000 square miles or approximately the area of Texas. Its greatest length from east to west is 770 miles, and its greatest breadth is about 525 miles. From north to south it covers a range of latitude equal to that from the northern border of Maryland to the southern boundary of Georgia. Kabul is situated in approximately the same latitude as Atlanta. From the extreme northeastern corner of Afghanistan a line of mountains strikes towards the heart of the country. The principal range, the Hindu Kush, stretches some 375 miles from the region of the Pamirs to Bamian Pass and is featured by peaks over 21,000 feet in height. The Hindu Kush throws off giant spurs to the north, west, and south which create an extended massif of somewhat lower elevations. The western extension beyond Bamian Pass includes the Kuh-i-Baba, Firuzkuh, and Parapamisus (Band-i-Baba) ranges, with the latter mountains extending to the Iranian frontier in the area north of Herat. North of these westerly extensions and roughly parallel to them is the Band-i-Turkistan range, while the Safid Kuh range to the south of the Hindu Kush extends from the Kabul River to the southwest. The Hindu Kush and its spurs constitute an extensive barrier to direct communica- tions between the USSR and Pakistan and India. Passes leading across the range from northern Afghanistan to the vicinity of Kabul are at elevations of from 8,000 to about 14,000 feet. The mountainous central and northeastern sections of the country are strewn with valleys, having an average elevation of over 6,000 feet, which are the sites of numerous small farming communities. Most of these settlements are far from the few motor roads and are connected only by rough trails. The area northward from the Hindu Kush and the Tir Band-i-Turkistan ranging to the Oxus is well-watered pasture land, at an altitude averaging about 1,500 feet, except for a belt of sand dunes immediately bordering the river. A very large section of western, southwestern, and southern Afghanistan is characterized by an arid climate and barren wastes at an altitude be- tween 2,000 and 3,000 feet. The southeastern and eastern parts of the country have some fertile valleys and small plains. Heaviest population density is along the valleys of the Kabul and the Kunar, with the town of Jalalabad, at the junction of these two rivers, enjoying a semi-tropical climate; in the vicinity of Herat along the Hari Rud valley; and in the vicinity of Kandahar. The drainage system of Afghanistan falls into three major categories: some 7 percent of the total land area has no streams at all; some 11 percent of the country has drainage to the sea through the streams which flow to the Indus River; and the 39 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET rest of the area has interior drainage, either to lakes or marshes or by the gradual evaporation and absorption of the water into the ground. Most of the streams are intermittent, and flash floods may impose serious barriers to cross-country movement. On the north some 14 percent of the land area drains into the Oxus (Amu Darya) basin. Of the remaining 68 percent of the country, the principal rivers are the Murghab and the Hari Rud, which flow to the Karakum desert within the USSR, and the Helmand which flows into the Hamun lake or marsh. The .Helmand and its several tributaries drain some 41 percent of the country. Today there are about 40,000 square miles of desert north and south of the lower course of the Helmand. Current projects envisage the irrigation of thousand of acres of this land, which cen- turies ago was irrigated and fertile. The average annual precipitation of the country is between 10 and 15 inches, ex- cept in the southwest where it is not over 5 inches. Rain and snow fall between October and April; rainfall is very rare during the summer months. Snow is rare in the Kandahar region and south of this area. In the mountainous regions heavy snows occur which may block the highway passes for long periods during the winter and spring. Afghanistan has a temperate climate with wide seasonal variations and a con- siderable range between day and night temperatures.* During the summer, tempera- tures on the lower Helmand reach 120 degrees and in the winter sink to below freezing. At Kabul the summer temperature rises to 100 degrees and ranges well below the freezing point in winter. In general, temperatures are lower to the north of the Hindu Kush. Clear skies are the rule during the summer months, and even in the winter completely overcast days are comparatively few in number. The strong sun- shine of the winter tends to ease the rigors of that season. The following tables give the best available temperature and precipitation data for Afghanistan. TABLE I MONTHLY TEMPERATURE RANGE AT KABUL* (Centigrade Scale) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Year Mean Temp. -3.0 -1.4 7.0 13.2 17.3 21.7 24.4 23.3 18.0 11.6 5.8 0.5 11.5 Mean Max. 3.4 5.0 13.9 20.5 25.1 30.0 32.3 31.8 27.4 22.1 15.7 7.5 19.6 Mean MM. -7.1 -6.6 1.0 5.7 8.5 10.5 14.0 13.6 7.7 3.3 -1.3 -3.8 3.8 Abs. Max. 13.7 17.7 24.5 29.9 34.8 36.6 37.7 36.4 36.1 30.0 23.1 17.5 37.7 Abs. Min. -24.5 -25.8 -11.0 -3.3 0.2 2.6 6.2 4.1 -2.3 -7.4 -10.4 -15.0 -25.8 * See Map, Figure V. ? SECRET 40 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET TABLE II MEAN TEMPERATURES (Centigrade Scale) Station Altitude Meters Mean temp. of warmest month Mean temp. of coldest month Kabul 1,799 24.40 C ?3.0? C Ghazni 2,218 23.4 ?6.7 Kandahar 1,044 31.5 5.6 Chaman 1,314 31.1 6.8 Girishk 945 33.5 8.4 Herat 922 30.7 2.1 Kushk Post 635 28.0 1.2 Termez 302 31.5 1.7 * Data based on a period of 13 years, 1923-32 and 1940-44. TABLE III MONTHLY MEAN PRECIPITATION (Millimeters) Number of years Station 16 Kabul 3_ 5 Jalalabad Kandahar 4 Girishk 4 Herat 15 Kushk Post 15 Termez January 44 34 88 79 66 31 22 February 51 46 40 44 35 57 8 March 45 21 21 21 37 80 25 April 62 47 12 5 7 18 16 May 28 12 2 2 13 26 June 3 3 July 4 3 5 August 9 9 September 2 2 October 13 2 . . . . November 5 1 2 1 16 18 8 December 34 5 22 16 40 42 8 TOTAL 300 185 192 168 201 259 115 41 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET APPENDIX B SIGNIFICANT COMMUNICATIONS FACILITIES 1. WATER TRANSPORT. Because of deep gorges, rapids, or shallow channels, Afghanistan's rivers, with few exceptions, are useless for navigation purposes. The few stretches of river which are navigable in season for small boats, the lower Helmand, the Arghandab, and the Kunduz, are not utilized by the Afghans for river traffic. The Oxus River which forms nearly 400 miles of the Afghan-Soviet frontier is navigable by small steamers and launches for commercial traffic up to Termez throughout the year, but shipping and all ferry service across the Oxus are conducted by the USSR. 2. ROADS. Transportation within Afghanistan is limited to motor, cart, and pack animal. Soviet railroads and roads serve at least six border posts on the Afghan frontier (Kushk Post [USSR] - Kara Tapa [Afghanistan], Tash Kerpi-Maruchak, Kerki- Andkhui, Kilif-Dagla Arosa, Termez-Tash Guzar (Pata Kesar), Qizil Faleh-Hazrat Iman). The limited commercial exchange between Afghanistan and the USSR is concentrated at Kushk Post and at Termez. The bulk of Afghanistan's foreign traffic moves through Torkham-Khyber Pass on the Kabul-Peshawar road and via Kandahar through Spin Baldak-Chaman into Pakis- tan. Pakistan roads and railroads serve both frontier points. Traffic with Iran is conducted chiefly via Islam Kala-Kariz over the Herat-Meshed Road. Although most of Afghanistan's roads have been constructed since 1930, none is first class. Even those classified as improved are inadequate. Stretches of narrow road, steep grades, sharp turns, weak bridges, and temporary blockage by flood or snow present impediments to traffic. While most of the improved roads have some drainage construction and a base with gravel or rock surfacing, they vary greatly in accordance with the local terrain. They will not accommodate heavy trucks or heavy traffic because of difficult hairpin turns, inadequate bridges, and poor road construc- tion and maintenance. The main highway system comprising about 2,200 miles * consists of: (a) the "great circle route" which extends from Kabul through Mazar-i-Sharif, Herat, Kanda- har, and back to Kabul a distance of about 1,600 miles; (b) internal connecting routes to Khanabad, Kunduz and towards Gardez, totalling about 200 miles; and (c) con- necting routes to the frontiers of Pakistan, Iran, and the Soviet Union totalling about 400 miles.- All road mileage is approximate, since minor detours and improvements are an ever-present factor. See Map, Figure I. 43 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET The first stage of the "great circle route," the North Road from Kabul to Mazar-i- Sharif (390 miles), although a well-traveled road offers considerable difficulty at all times because of the high and rugged terrain.of. the Hindu Kush which it crosses be- tween Charikar (40 miles out of Kabul) and DOshi (215 miles out of Kabul). Between Kabul and Charikar there are no problems. Beyond Charikar narrow gorges, deep valleys, steep grades, sharp turns, repeated crossings of the Surkhab and Kunduz Rivers on narrow bridges, and high passes (Shibar Pass: 9,800 feet) characterize the route into Doshi. This road will accomodate only one-way traffic for long stretches and only a limited amount at any given time; it could be blocked in innumerable-places with little effort. Leaving Doshi the road follows the Kunduz River and gradually descends through foothills to Pul-i-Khumri (245 miles) . At this point a connecting road, following the Kunduz River valley, takes off to Kunduz, Khanabad, and Faizabad. The main road, after crossing the Kunduz River at Pul-i-Khumri, reaches Haibak in the Ghori plain and continues in open steppe and plateau country to Tashkurghan. From here open plains extend westward to Mazar-i-Sharif, and the road is generally good. An important route to the USSR is the 35-mile stretch to the north of Mazar-i- Sharif ending at Tash Guzar (Pata Kesar) where a ferry connects with Termez, USSR. The last six to ten miles, over loose-drifting sand dunes, are not considered traversable by motor. At Termez the Oxus River is 600 yards wide in summer, 400 yards in winter. The second stage of the "great circle route," Mazar-i-Sharif westward to Herat (approximately 500 miles) , offers considerable difficulties to motor traffic. However, it is the only important route into northwest Afghanistan and will increase in import- ance if Afghanistan's petroleum resources are developed. The road between Mazar-i- Sharif and Andkhui (130 miles) proceeds over gently rolling plains where the chief obstacles to traffic are the many canals and irrigation ditches. As Andkhui is ap- proached, soft, shifting sands are a considerable handicap to traffic. The entire dis,- tance becomes difficult in wet weather owing to poor drainage and inadequate surfac- ing. On leaving Andkhui, the road turns southward, traverses sand dunes, and follows the fertile Maimana River valley to Maimana (85 miles from Andkhui), located in a plain surrounded by hills. The route from Maimana to Herat, a distance of nearly 300 miles, is actually a pack-trail improved to accommodate motor traffic. Like the North Road out of Kabul, this route crosses the central mountain range. It follows long narrow valleys, traverses many minor and major passes (Sazak Pass; 7,950 feet, 70 miles northeast of Herat), and steep defiles. The road has sharp turns, widths of less than nine feet, grades of nearly 20 percent, and bridges which will take only light traffic. Snow may block the road for days at a time during winter. From Herat, the largest city of western Afghanistan, an important 80-mile improved road, which handles most of the commercial exchange between the USSR and Afghanis- tan, runs to the Soviet border at Kushk Post. The first fifty miles of the road are through rugged terrain with a maximum elevation of 5,000 feet; as the frontier-4s ap- Proached, the route traverses stretches of sand along the Kushk River. SECRET 44 _Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET The road linking Herat, via the border points of Islam Kala-Korez, with Meshed, Iran, is the most important route connecting Afghanistan with Iran. The road (80 miles to the border), which follows an easy grade, can be traveled throughout the year but is in poor condition due to lack of maintenance and to stretches of sand and soft earth. The road follows the north bank of the Hari Rud as far as Tirpul, 18 miles from the border, where it crosses the river bed over a brick and stone bridge. The third stage of the "great circle route" known as the West Road crosses barren country and links Herat with Kandahar (400 miles). This road is easy and good by comparison with other Afghan roads. The highest road elevations are approximately 4,000 feet, and there are but few steep grades. Aside from eight river crossings where bridges may not be in repair, there are no serious obstacles to traffic. Of the eight crossings the six between Herat and Farah can be forded most of the year. The other two rivers (the Helmand at Girishk and the Arghandab near Kandahar) are rarely fordable. When bridges over these streams are not in repair, a makeshift ferry may be employed. Strategically this is the most important route in Afghanistan because it is the easiest approach from Iran and the USSR to southern Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. When the irrigation and dam projects on the Helmand River near Girishk (75 miles west of Kandahar) are completed, the road east of Girishk will increase in commercial importance. Kandahar, the chief city in southern Afghanistan, is linked to Pakistan by road via Spin Balak-Chaman (65 miles). This road, currently being rebuilt by Morrison- Knudsen-Afghanistan, is one of the two important foreign trade routes of Afghanistan, and could be developed into the most important. The last stage of the "great circle route" linking Kandahar to Kabul (320 miles) follows the Tarnak River valley for its first hundred miles past Qalat-i-Ghilzai and then continues into Ghazni via the Ghazni River valley. This stretch of approximately 200 miles over steadily rising terrain offers few road problems except surface maintenance in areas where the surface is soft clay. The last hundred miles, particularly the dis- tance between Ghazni and Kabul, are typical high mountain terrain with all attendant problems: three major river crossings on bridges (Ghazni, Logar, Kabul rivers) , nu- merous smaller stream crossings, high altitude (8,246 feet 12 miles north of Ghazni) , and narrow defiles. Rain and snow can make this route impassable. A somewhat easier alternate route leaves the Ghazni-Kabul highway south of Shaikhabad, joins the Gardez-Kabul road near Kulangar, and continues to Kabul. The most importnt foreign trade route of Afghanistan leads from Kabul via Jalala- bad to Torkham on the frontier (155 miles) and through the Khyber Pass (3370 feet) to Peshawar in Pakistan. Efforts to develop a river grade route following the Kabul River and the Tangi Gharu gorge between Kabul and Sarobi have not been abandoned; work on the route proposed by M-K-A has been suspended at least temporarily, be- cause of the high cost, in favor of the route via Butkhak. The Butkhak road, which is improved but subject to snow blockage and washout, traverses rugged mountainous country (Lataband Pass 6,850 feet). From Sarobi the road follows the river into Jalala- bad and then leaves the river as it heads eastward to Torkham. Although Morrison- Knudsen-Afghanistan is currently improving this road (a road on which the Afghan 45 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Government has expended considerable effort in the past), travel over this vital link with the outside world continues to be slow and difficult. In addition to the main motor roads, approximately 1,500 miles of partially improved roads or tracks motorable in good weather connect important villages and agricultural areas with the main routes. This type of road connects Kabul with Herat through central Afghanistan. It is approximately 175 miles shorter than the southern route via Kandahar but is exceedingly difficult because of high passes (several over 10,000 feet) and long stretches of unimproved road. It is motorable only during favorable seasons and carries a limited amount of traffic. Trails, a few motorable under favorable conditions, connect all villages and smaller communities with more important routes. (Only important trails are shown on Figure I, Terrain, Transportation Map.) Some of these century-old caravan routes into Pakistan, the USSR, and China currently carry little traffic but are of potential strategic importance. A caravan trail connects Afghanistan with Sinkiang, China. The trail proceeds within Afghanistan from Zebak to Ishkashim at the western end of the Wakhan Corridor and then along the Oxus River which forms the Soviet-Afghan frontier. Near Langar Kisht (USSR) the trail leaves the border and follows the Oxus River to its headwaters near the Chinese frontier where the border is crossed through the Wakhir Pass (16,150 feet) into Sinkiang. The Afghan-Sino border, however, has. been closed to regular traffic since 1933. As indicated earlier, trails into the USSR are not of economic significance but may be of strategic value. Trails into Pakistan, including the Gomal Pass route to Fort Sandeman and the Paiwar Pass route to Parachinar, are losing their commercial im- portance but continue to be important routes of tribal movements. 3. RAILROAD. There are no railroads in Afghanistan. 4. AIR LINES. There are no civil air lines operating within or into Afghanistan. Afghanistan's expressed desire to be included on an international air route, as well as its interest in establishing domestic service, may result in some type of civil air service in the near future. Before 1940 the German Lufthansa operated a route to Kabul via Tehran and Herat. During 1946 and 1947 Afghanistan unsuccessfully attempted to interest PAA, TWA, and a Government of India civil air mission in cooperating in the establish- ment of air service. In early 1948 Afghanistan contracted for 12 British Avro Anson XIX planes (2-engine, 2-crew, 6-passenger aircraft), for the army. By mid-summer 1948 several of these planes had been delivered. It is possible that some of these planes may be used in domestic air service. While the number of landing areas within Afghanistan is estimated by British sources to be as high as 33, not more than 14 can be considered currently useable, even for light aircraft.* Only five of these fields, one each at Jalalabad, Kandahar, and * See IViUp, Figure I. SECRET 46 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET Herat, and two at Kabul, have runways of 1,000 yards or more with limited installations and facilities. No field has permanent all-weather runways, none has facilities for night flying, and none has adequate communication facilities or landing aids. In line with its interest in air transportation, the Afghan Government intends to expand the facilities of the Khawaja Rawash field at Kabul. This field, used by the Afghan Air Force, is also the only field used for occasional, international flights and by the Soviet courier plane, a C-47. 5. TELEPHONE, TELEGRAPH, AND RADIO COMMUNICATIONS. The Ministry of Posts and Telegraphs controls and operates telecommunication facilities within Afghanistan. Most of the traffic is government business. All cities, important villages, administrative centers, and military posts are linked by telephone with Kabul. In most cases the telephone wires follow the roads, but telephone con- nections extend beyond motorable roads. Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar-i-Sharif, Baghlan, Maimana, Jalalabad and some smaller towns have limited local telephone systems in operation. Between 3,000 and 5,000 telephone instruments are in service. The tele- phone service does not connect with foreign countries. During 1947 the Afghan Government displayed its interest in improving the telephone service by asking US, UK, and Swedish firms for bids on specific equipment. The telegraph system, with approximately 7,500 miles of lines, aside from giving domestic service has four links with foreign countries: with Pakistan at Torkham- Landi Kotal (Khyber) , Kila-i-Jadid-Chaman; with Iran at Islam Kala-Kariz, and with USSR at Kara Tapa-Kushk Post. Most of the foreign telegraphic traffic is routed via Pakistan. The telephone and telegraph equipment is mostly antiquated; the systems are not coordinated; and service is normally poor. In case of national emergency the telephone and telegraph systems could not be relied upon, and they would be of little use to any foreign military forces operating within the country. The only radio station of international scope is located at Kabul. It is a Standard British Marconi type Model SWB011, 5,000-8,000 watts, and has the call letters YAK. It maintains limited radiotelegraph connections with the UK, Iran, Pakistan, India, and the USSR. Connections with the US are via Tangier (WRG 4-5), where Mackay Radio relays messages to New York City. Experimental radiotelephone service between Kabul (YAK) and London (GAD) has been carried out. The only local Afghan broadcasts of several hours per day originate with this same station. The number of radio receiving sets in Afghanistan is variously estimated from 1,000 to 5,000. Short- wave local sending stations operated by the government are known to exist at Kabul (YAA) , Maimana (YAM) , Mazar-i-Sharif (YAQ), Herat (YAH), Khost (YAT) , and Kaizangi (YAD). Morrison-Knudsen-Afghanistan in connection with its engineering and construc- tion work has set up its own radiotelephone system with main stations at Kabul, Jalalabad, Kandahar, and Girishk, and six mobile units attached to local construction projects. The equipment will be turned over to the Afghan Government after M-K-A has finished its work. 47 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET APPENDIX C POPULATION STATISTICS AND CHARACTERISTICS 1. POPULATION ELEMENTS. An Afghan Government figure of 1945 gives the population of the country as 12,000,000. The average density of population is about 15 persons per square kilo- meter. However, large tracts have a very scanty population, while a relatively few settled areas have up to 50 persons to the square kilometer.* There are only fifteen towns with a population of over 15,000. The largest towns are Kabul, the capitol, with 206,208; Kandahar 77,186; Herat 75,642; Mazar-i-Sharif 41,960; and Ghazni 27,084. About 70 percent of the population is engaged in farming, the majority of this group working as sharecroppers on extensive landholdings. Nearly 25 percent are nomadic or semi-nomadic people who spend the fall and winter in the lower valleys and plains, and in the spring move with their flocks to the high pasture lands. The remaining 5 percent dwell in the larger towns where they are shopkeepers, traders, and artisans. Dividing lines between these Principal groups are not hard and fast. Settled farmers may also engage in herding, and nomads may have areas of settle- ment where they sow crops. The present trend among the people is toward a more sedentary life. The population of Afghanistan is made up of a number of elements distinguish- able from each other according to ethnic type, language spoken, Moslem sect, and areas of settlement. These population elements may be grouped under the four major classifications of Indo-Iranian, Turk, Mongol, and Indo-Aryan. Map, Figure II illus- trates the areas of settlement of the four major groups and their important subdivisions, their languages, and their sectarian affiliations. Certain minor classifications are neither discussed in the text nor shown on the map which is intended to show at a glance the probable ethnic group, language in current use, and sectarian belief of any chosen point in the country. Some islands of settlement of ethnic groups within the larger areas of other groups are not indicated nor can the communities of true Afghans settled by the government in the northern part of the country be shown on a map of this type. It should also be noted that boundary lines between ethnic groups are not as sharp and precise as drawn on the map and that some areas may have a mixture of as many as three ethnic groups. The figures given in the following paragraphs are recent US estimates largely based on earlier British sources and on a total population figure of 12,000,000. Some US sources and certain foreign reports use lower figures. German figures for each group are considerably lower and were based upon an estimated population of 8,000,000. Soviet figures are also lower, being based upon an estimated population of 9,500,000. * See Map, Figure III. 49 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET The four major classifications are as follows: a. Inclo-Iranian. (1) Afghans. The Afghan tribes referred to in the body of the text as the true Afghans include the Durani, the Ghilzai, and a number of smaller tribal groups. They speak Pushtu, an East Iranian language, and belong to the Sunni sect of Islam, which is the official religion of the country. The Durani, numbering some 2,250,000, have three principal tribal di- visions: the Popalzai, the Barakzai, and the Alizai. Most of the high officials of the government are Duranis, and the reigning dynasty comes from the Mohammedzai clan of the Barakzai. About three-quarters of this number are now settled in villages of Kandahar Province along the valleys of the lower Helmand and its several tributaries. They are well supplied with small arms and are of a war-like disposition. The Ghilzai number some 1,880,000. This group presumably containing Turkish and Persian elements, lacks the ethnic purity of the Durani. The Sulaiman Khel clan is the predominant element of this tribe which occupies the area to the east of the habitat of the Duranis. Two-thirds of the group are still nomadic; in cold weather one-third of their number generally moves across the Gomal Pass on the frontier of Pakistan to winter in the plains of the Indus valley. Like the Duranis, they are well supplied with small arms and are of a war-like disposition. Other Afghan tribes, along the eastern frontier of the country, number some 1,140,000. At least seven of these tribes either live on the Afghan side of the frontier, move back and forth across the border, or live in the North West Frontier area of Pakistan. Within Pakistan, where these Afghans are known as Pathans, the tribes number some 2,400,000. The demarcation of the frontier between Afghanistan and India (1893-1903)?the so-called Durand Line?ran an artificial barrier through these closely related tribes. The tribes, including the Afridi, Waziri, Shinwari, Orakzai, Mohmand, Yusufzai, and Mahsud, are semi-nomadic; they are well armed and con- stitute a turbulent element on both sides of the frontier. (2) Tajik. The Tajiks, numbering some 2,800,000, speak Persian, are of the Sunni sect, and are of Iranian (Persian) stock. It is probable that this group lived in the general region at a very early date. They are the most settled group in the country. The majority of them are farmers although traders and artisans also come from this group. They are an orderly element and make hardy soldiers. Their area of settle- ment is a wide corridor running north from the Kabul valley to the Oxus River, and beyond into Soviet territory where they live in considerable number. (3) Iranian. The area from the Afghan-Iranian frontier extending to some distance east of Herat is occupied by Iranians. Their number may reach 400,000. They speak Persian and are of the Shia sect. This group is sometimes lumped with the Tajiks and sometimes called Herati, but these farming people are closely, related to their SECRET 50 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? SECRET neighbors across the frontier to the west. The region which they inhabit was a part of Iran until the middle of the last century. (4) Baluchi. The Baluchi, numbering some 50,000, speak Baluchi and are Sunnis. Herders in the lower Helmand valley and in Afghan Sistan, they are of the same stock as the Baluchi resident in Iran and in former Baluchistan, now a part of Pakistan. b. Turk. (1) Uzbek. The Uzbeks, numbering some 1,320,000, speak Turki and are of the Sunni sect. Occupying territory south of the Oxus River, they are closely related to the Uzbeks north of the river and within the USSR. Some 50,000 entered Afghanistan from Russia after 1919, including the Amir of Bokhara who recently died at Kabul. His son is resident at Kabul. The Uzbeks are farmers and herders, raising karakul flocks, and are the best horse breeders of Afghanistan. They have no tribal organiza- tion and are no longer a martial group. (2) Turkomen. Although specific figures are not available, the Turkomen probably number at least 250,000. They speak Turki and are Sunnis. Their area within Afghanistan, a strip along the northwestern frontier, is the continuation of a belt of Turkomen oc- cupation which stretches west to the Caspian along the frontiers of Afghanistan, Iran and the USSR. The Turkomen are nomadic, have a tribal organization, and are engaged in flock? raising. (3) Kirghiz. The Kirghiz are herders living in the Wakhan tip of Afghanistan. Infor- mation regarding this group is very scanty. The bulk of this group lives within the USSR, with probably not more than a few hundred in Afghanistan. . Mongol. (1) Kazara. The Hazars, numbering about 1,044,000, are of almost pure Mongolian stock. They are descendants of people who settled areas left desolate by the armies of Ghengiz Khan in the thirteenth century. They speak Persian and belong to the Shia sect. They occupy the remote and little-explored mountainous region of central Afghanistan. Semi-nomadic in habit, they engage in farming and herding. They were disarmed by the central government in 1891, but are believed to have largely re-armed themselves since that date. (2) Chahar Aimak. The Chahar Aimak (or "Four Tribes") who occupy the region of west central Afghanistan, number some 480,000. These tribes are the Jamshedi, Firuzkuhi, Taimani, and Timuri. They speak Turki and are Shias. Their way of life ranges from semi-settled to settled. 51 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET cl. Dravidian. (1) Kafir. The Kafirs, or Nuri, number 132,000. Originally pagan tribes, they came under the direct control of the Afghan Government in 1896, after which they were for- mally converted to Islam. Their language is of the Dardic group of the Indic language: Their area of occupation in eastern Afghanistan, above Jalalabad, some 5,000 square miles, was formerly known as Kafiristan, but now bears the official name of Nuristan. 2. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS. Probably at least 90 percent of the entire population is illiterate. The government has taken steps to alter this situation by systematizing the material taught in the village schools by the mullahs, the Moslem clerics; by opening primary and secondary schools in the larger towns; and by founding the University of Kabul, which includes faculties for the study of law and medicine. The position of women remains essentially as it has been for centuries. Veiled and secluded, except among the nomadic tribes, they have gained none of the advantages now enjoyed by their sisters in Moslem lands to the west of Afghanistan. The general health of the Afghans is much better than would be expected in view of the total lack of such sanitary measures as water purification, sewage disposal, food inspection, and insect control. Statistics relative to morbidity and mortality do not exist, but it is known that the principal types of illness and disease are diarrhea, dysentery, tuberculosis, malaria, small-pox, and venereal diseases. The Afghans are generally characterized as one of the most War-like and freedom- loving people of Asia, but such a statement is too sweeping even if applied only to the Durani, the Ghilzai, and the Afghan tribes of the Indian border. The groups of the rest of the country are subject to the Afghans; they are of more pacific disposition and have no inherent attachment to the country as a political entity. The population lacks homogeneity. At best it is bound together by the true Afghan tribes, by membership in the Moslem faith and by the will to resist foreign incursions. The absence of homogeneity and unity results in a lack of national patriotism. The population diversity also hampers the execution of programs designed to increase the national wealth or to industrialize the country. Among the upper, educated groups .,which are anxious to modernize the country, the belief may prevail that a copying of the industries and techniques of the West will transform the country. However, the pace and demands of the industrialized West require the development of certain abilities which are foreign to the Afghans. These include the capacity for sustained labor; obedience to orders; obedience to an authority not immediately backed by force; habits of punctuality; and collective responsibility and group cooperation. The traditional way of life in Afghanistan may only be altered at a slow rate and then only if the benefits of a new system permeate each small locality, SECRET 52 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? 1. Name: Place of Birth: ? Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education: Languages: Religion: Present Position: Career: Character: .2. Name: Place of Birth: Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education: Languages: Religion: SECRET. APPENDIX D SIGNIFICANT BIOGRAPHICAL DATA H. M. Mohammad Zahir Shah. Kabul. 15 October 1914. Son of late King Mohammad Nadir Shah. Married to a cousin, Princess Umaira, in 1931. Four living children. The Crown Prince, Ahmad Shah, is 13 years old. Graduate of Habibiya High School, Kabul, 1920-23; attended Estacilal College, Kabul, 1924; attended Lycee Janson de Sailly Pasteur; College Montpellier, 1924-30; graduate of Infantry Officer's School, Kabul, 1931. Speaks and reads French, understands and reads English. Sunni Moslem. Since 8 November 1933, King of Afghanistan. Served as Assistant Minister of War in 1932 and as Acting Min- ister of Education in 1933. Since becoming King has con- tinued policies of Nadir Shah, aided and directed by members of the royal family, notably his mother and the brothers of Nadir Shah. Displays serious and intelligent interest in the problems of the country. In 1946 and 1948 toured northern Afghanistan. Has dignity, charm, and an easy, assured manner. Possesses a sense of humor, is in good health and enjoys sports. Inter- ested in the discussion of serious subjects and especially con- cerned with administration, aviation, and the modernization of Afghanistan. Private life led in frugal fashion without scan- dal. Reputedly pro-American. Is reserved toward British and said to be anti-Indian and anti-Soviet. H. R. H. Sardar Mohammad Hashim Khan. Unknown. 1884. Son of late Mohammad Yusuf Khan. Brother of late King Nadir Shah, of late Mohammad Aziz Khan, of Sardar Shah Mahmud Khan, and of Sadar Shah Wali Khan. Uncle of King Zahir. Not married. In France. Speaks English, Hindustani, some French. Sunni Moslem. 53 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Present Position: Career: Character: 3. Name: Place of Birth: Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education: Languages: Religion: Present Position: Career: Character: 4. Name: Place of Birth: SECRET Retired from official life May 1946. Continues to most powerful figures in Afghanistan. Military Governor of Herat Commander of Royal Guard Lt. General and Army Commander Governor of Jalalabad Minister of War, Commander in Chief of Army Minister to USSR Exile in France be one of the 1916 1917 1917-1919 1919-1921 1921-1923 1924-1926 1926-1929 Returned to help overthrow Amanullah and Bacha-i-Saqao. Prime Minister and Minister of Interior 1929. Prime Minister to May 1946. Hard-working, efficient administrator. Has dignity, sense of humor, and charming manners. Simple personal life. Neu- tral attitude toward most foreign powers, but has distinct ad- miration for the US. H. R. H. Sardar Shah Mahmud Khan. Dehra Dun, India. 1888. Youngest son of Mohammad Yusuf Khan, brother of late King Nadir Shah, brother of late Mohammad Aziz Khan, of Sardar Mohammad Hashim Khan, and of Sardar Shah Wali Khan, uncle of King Zahir. Married in 1920: several children. Habibiya College, Kabul. Speaks English fairly well. Sunni Moslem. Since May 1946 Prime Minister, while retaining previous post of Commander-in-Chief of the Afghan Army. Began military career in 1908. Named General in 1917. Com- manded troops in Third Afghan-British War in 1919. Between 1919 and 1928 held various high administrative and military posts. In 1929 helped Nadir Shah restore order throughout Afghanistan and was named Minister of War and Commander- in-Chief of the Afghan Army. Was instrumental in installing young Zahir on the throne in 1933. Quiet, unassuming, unaffected, enjoys wide popularity among all classes of people. More tolerant than preceding Prime Min- ister. Expected to broaden reform and modernization pro- gram. Considered pro-US. Son studying at Harvard Uni- versity. Friendly to British. R. HI Sardar Shah Wall Khan. Kabul. 54 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education: Languages: Religion: Present Position: Career: Character: 5. Name: Place of Birth: Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education:- Languages: Religion: Present Position: Career: SECRET Date of birth variously given 1881, 1884, 1888, and 1892. Son of Mohammad Yusuf, brother of late King Nadir Shah, full brother of Sardar Shah Mahmud Khan, and half brother of Sardar Mohammad Hashim Khan. Married in 1920, 4 or 5 children. Wife, a full sister of ex-King Amanullah, has not been in Afghanistan since 1929. Kabul and India. In 1926 travel and study in France. Fluent French, speaks some English. Sunni Moslem. Ambassador to Pakistan since March 1948. In 1929 commanded forces which recaptured Kabul from rebels. Minister to Britain 1929-30. Minister to France and concur- rently to Switzerland 1931 to 1947. Acting Prime Minister and Acting Minister of War 1936-37. Acting Prime Minister and Acting Minister of Public Works 1947-48. Has military title of Marshal. Cultured, intelligent diplomat of high integrity with adminis- trative ability. One of the most able men in the "inner circle." May not be interested in active career in Afghanistan because of his wife's apparent unwillingness to return to Afghanistan. Reported pro-British and pro-American. Highly esteemed per- sonal friend of the late 'Quaid-i-Azam Jinnah. H. R. H. Sardar Mohammad Daud Khan. Kabul. 1909. The eldest son of Sardar Mohammad Aziz Khan, a brother of King Nadir Shah, and hence a cousin of King Zahir. A brother, Sardar Mohammad Naim Khan, is currently Ambas- sador designate to the US. Married a sister of King Zahir in 1934. Amaniya College, Kabul. Then spent nine years in France, returning in 1930. Attended Infantry Officer's School, Kabul, 1930-32. Speaks French well, and some English. Sunni Moslem. Since May 1948 Minister to Paris, Brussels, and Berne. Has military rank of Lt. General. In 1932 named Major-General. In 1932-33 Commanding Gen- eral and Governor of Eastern Province. In 1935 Commanding General and Governor of Kandahar and Commanding General of Farah. In 1938 Governor of Eastern Provinces. In 1938 Commandant of the Kabul Military Schools. From 1936 until 55 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Character: 6. Name: Place of Birth: Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education: Languages: Religion: Present Position: Career: Character: 7. Name: Place of Birth: SECRET 1946 Commanding General of Central Army Corps, Kabul. In 1945 commanded the campaign against the Safi tribe in the Kunar valley area. From May 1946 to May 1948 Minister of War with Military rank of Lt. General. Has been a favorite of his uncle, and former Prime Minister Sardar Mohammad Hashim Khan. A strong advocate of modernization of the army and of the firm use of the army against unruly tribal elements. His tribal policy has brought on friction with the present Prime Minister, and may have resulted in his current assignment. Strong personality, very energetic, nationalistic, determined, but tactless. Most interested in progressive program. In early assignments proved to be headstrong and hasty, bringing on mistrust of population groups. Under guidance of his uncles may become a competent administrator. Admired German war machine, and was considered pro-German. H. R. H. Sardar Mohammad Naim Khan. Unknown. 1910 or 1911. Son of Sardar Mohammad Aziz Khan, a brother of King Nadir Shah, and hence cousin of King Zahir. A brother, Sardar Mohammad Daud Khan, is currently Minister to France. Married sister of King Zahir Shah in 1934. In France. Speaks French fluently, and some English. Sunni Moslem. Since March 1948, Ambassador designate to US. 'Expected in Washington in early fall of 1948. In 1930 Secretary in the Afghan Foreign Office. In 1932 Min- ister to Italy; 1934 First Assistant Foreign Office; 1935-1936 Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs; 1937 Acting Minister of Edu- cation; 1939 Deputy Prime Minister; 1941 Assistant Prime Min- ister and Minister of Education; Minister to UK, July 1946 to March 1948. Intelligent, tactful, well mannered. Interested in promoting modernization and progress in Afghanistan. Probably one of the future leaders. Was impressed by German war successes, but also considered variously pro-French and pro-British. Currently interested in the employment of US teachers; also considered pro-US. Mohammad Omar Khan. Unknown. 56 ? ? STAT Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? Date of Birth: Lineage: Education: Languages: Religion: Present Position: Career: Character: 8. Name: Place of Birth: Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: ? Education: Languages: Religion: Present Position: Career: Character: SECRET 1898. Family with military tradition. Habibiya and Military College, Kabul. Speaks English, French, Russian, and German fluently, possibly also Italian. Moslem. Since 28 July 1948, Minister of War. Regular Army Officer. Military Attache to Rome and Berlin. Chief of Military Mission to Moscow 1926. Attended Confer- ences in Geneva 1932, 1934, and 1935. Chief of Staff 1934-1946. In May 1946 Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Afghan Army but resigned almost immediately because he did not wish to be subordinated to Lt. General Mohammad Daud Khan. June 1946 to July 1948 Private Secretary to the King with military rank of Lt. General. Keen, intelligent officer without much experience with troops but with considerable experience in international relations and in domestic politics. His present assignment places him in a strategic position where he can help strengthen the authority of the central government in its relations with the tribes. Seems friendly to the US. Sardar Asadullah Khan. Unknown. 1911. Son of late Amir Habibullah and Ulya Janab, sister of the late King Nadir Shah. He is thus half brother of the exiled Aman- ullah and cousin of the present King. Married, several children. Infantry Officer's School, Kabul, 1931. Speaks French fluently, English poorly. Sunni Moslem. Since 31 July 1948, Assistant Prime Minister and Minister of Interior. Imprisoned by Bacha-i-Saqao in 1929. Regular army officer career since 1930. Represented King Zahir Shah at coronation of British King in London in 1937. Appointed Chief of General Staff with rank of Lt. General, November 1946. Acting Minis- ter of War, May to July 1948. Intelligent, good-looking, friendly. Interested in history and archaeology of Afghanistan; is also an amateur photographer and likes sports. Has social and political importance because of his lineage and is trusted by the present regime. 57 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET 9. Name: Place of Birth: Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education: Languages: Religion: Present Position: Career: Character: 10. Name: Place of Birth: Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education: Languages: Religion: Present Position: Career: ' EQ._13,E117 Abdul Majid Khan. Herat. 1901. Tajik. Wife of German-Russian stock; four children. Two sons cur- rently in the US. Probably no formal education. Speaks fluent German and Russian. Unknown. Since September 1938 Minister of National Economy. Cur- rently also President of the National Bank of Afghanistan and Governor of the Bank of Afghanistan. Originally a small-scale merchant at Herat. Worked in Herat customs office. About 1920 went to Moscow and remained ten years; was engaged in trade. About 1930 in Berlin. In 1933 called back to Kabul, directed by Afghan Government to organ- ize Ashami Company, first effort to foster economic and indus- trial development in country. Broke the virtual monopoly which Indian merchants had in Afghanistan. In 1936 in Mos- cow and concluded commercial agreement with USSR. Went on to Germany and arranged agreement for arms and for tech- nical assistance. Was personally responsible for pre-World War II influx of German technicians into Afghanistan. In 1945 and again in the summer of 1948 visited the US. Clever, astute businessman and administrator. Locally con- sidered to be a financial wizard. Questionable whether per- sonal ambition or desire to aid country strongest motives for his activity. Has been considered a Germanophile and pro-Soviet, but currently seems to be anti-Soviet and strongly nationalistic. Has been anti-Indian on basis of economic policies. Currently cordial to the US. Najibullah Khan (Torwayana). Afghanistan. About 1914. A cousin of ex-King Amanullah. Unknown. Estaglal College, Kabul. Speaks and reads French, speaks English. Sunni Moslem. Since May 1946, Acting Minister of Education. In 1933 entered the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In 1938 named Director of Political Affairs in the Ministry. In 1939 Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs. Has enjoyed the confidence of 58 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? Character: 11. Name: Place of Birth: Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education: Lineage: Religion: Present Position: Career: Character: 12. Name: Place of Birth: Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education: Languages: Religion: SECRET King Zahir, of former Prime Minister Sardar Mohammad Hashim Khan, and of the present Prime Minister. Repre- sented Afghanistan in the USSR in a geographical conference and at Cairo, in a regional civil air conference. Very intelligent, excellent administrator. Despi'S TAT his relationship to Amanullah, he appears loyal to the present regime, is trusted by them, and is often consulted by high Afghan officials and foreign diplomats. During World War II displayed pro-Axis tendencies. Considered anti-British. Pro- fesses to be pro-American and has expressed determination to modernize Afghan educational system along US lines. Mohammad Kabir Khan (Ludin) . Unknown. About 1898. Afghan tribe. Married, three children. Habibiya College, Kabul. In 1931 matriculated at Cornell Uni- versity and was graduated in civil engineering. Reads and speaks English fluently. Sunni Moslem. Since 1946, Minister of Public Works. After graduation from Cornell worked with the US Bureau of Reclamation. In 1940 returned to Kabul and took post as engi- neer in Ministry of Public Works. Advanced rapidly, becoming head of Department of Irrigation, later Acting Minister. Has headed special Afghan missions and is one of principal figures in the planning of the economic development program. Greatly interested in pushing the work of Morrison- Knudsen-Afghanistan. Has been in US from late 1947 to April 1948, consulting on Helmand River problem, on loan to Afghan- istan, and Morrison-Knudsen-Afghanistan business. Able, careful career man, not a politician. Strongly pro-US and anti-Soviet. Sardar Abdul Hosayn Aziz. Iran. 2 May 1896. Unknown. Married; children. Habibiya College, Kabul, and at Tehran. Speaks English and a little French. Sunni Moslem. Present Position: Ambassador designate to India. 59 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET Career: Character: 13. Name: Place of Birth: Date of Birth: Lineage: Family Status: Education: Languages: Religion: Present Position: Career: Character: SECRET 1919, First Secretary, later Consul, at Afghan Legation in Iran. 1922, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kabul. 1923, Consul General, India. 1929, Minister to Italy. 1931-32, Afghan delegate to Geneva Disarmament Conference. Observer at Narcotic Drug Conference. 1933-38, Ambassador to the USSR. 1938-40, Min- ister of Public Works. 1941-43, Minister of Posts, Telegraphs, and Telephones. 1943?April 1948, Minister to the US. Also Delegate to the UN. Bluff, meticulous, careful, well-informed diplomat. Individ- ualistic and extremely nationalistic. Reported at one time as pro-Amanullah, anti-Pakistan, anti-British, strongly anti- USSR. Ali Mohammad Khan. Unknown. About 1895. Uzbek or Tajik from Badakhshan. No report. Not known, but apparently good. Speaks English fluently. Moslem. is Since October 1938 has been Minister of Foreign Affairs. Assistant in Ministry of Education 1923. Undersecretary of Education 1925. Minister to Italy 1927. Minister of Com- merce 1928. Accompanied Amanullah to London 1928. Min- ister of Education 1929. Minister to the UK 1933. Delegate to League of Nations 1935-1936. Intelligent, cultured, charming personality. Calm-tempered. Considered pro-American and pro-British. 00 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? 1907 31 August 1919 20 February May ? August 8 August 1921 28 February 22 November 1922 22 April 1926 31 August 1928 Fall 1929 14 January 16 November 1931 24 June 1932 1933 8 November 1935 4 May 1936 29 March SECRET APPENDIX E CHRONOLOGY OF SIGNIFICANT EVENTS The Anglo-Russian Convention places Afghanistan outside the sphere of Rusian influence. Amir Habibullah is assassinated. Succeeded by Amanullah Khan. The Third Afghan-British war. The Treaty of Rawalpindi closes the brief term of hostilities. Treaty of Friendship between Afghanistan and the USSR followed by the establishment of a Soviet Legation at Kabul. Treaty of Friendship between Afghanistan and Great Britain. Official relations established between Afghanistan and France. Treaty of Neutrality and Non-Aggression between Afghanistan and the USSR. Revolt against the regime of King Amanullah. Abdication of King Amanullah. Nadir Shah becomes King of Afghanistan. Mohammad Hashim Khan is named Prime Minister. Expanded version of the 1926 Treaty of Neutrality and Non- Aggression between Afghanistan and the USSR. Creation of the University of Kabul. Nadir Shah is assassinated. Succeeded by Mohammad Zahir Shah. First licensed monopoly companies established by the Afghan Na- tional Bank. Diplomatic relations established between Afghanistan and the US. Afghanistan and the USSR sign a protocol providing for auto- matic annual extension of the 1931 Treaty. 61 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET 1937 Spring 8 July 1938 June 1940 23 July 1941 October 1942 6 June 1943 4 June 1946 21 April June 13 June 19 November 1947 13 April 26 April 13 June 4 July 10 July August - September 30 September 5 November December ? 1948 Winter - Spring March SECRET. Afghanistan grants a 60-year petroleum concession to the Inland Exploration Company. Afghanistan joins Iran, Iraq, and Turkey in signing the Saadabad Pact. The Inland Exploration Company surrenders its concession. Trade Agreement between Afghanistan and the USSR. Axis nationals expelled from Afghanistan. US Legation opened at Kabul. First Afghan Minister assumes post in US. Mohammad Hashim Khan resigns as Prime Minister after 19 years in the post. Succeeded by Shah Mahmud Khan. Morrison-Knudsen-Afghanistan personnel arrives in Afghanistan to begin work on $17,400,000 contract. Afghanistan and USSR agree to carry out demarcation of frontier. Afghanistan becomes a member of the UN. Agreement on wireless communications signed by Afghanistan and the USSR. An Afghan group meets Soviet officials at Tashkent to discuss the demarcation of the frontier. An Afghan note to the UK urges that the referendum announced for July in the North West Frontier Province not only give the people of the area the choice of joining India or Pakistan but also of joining Afghanistan Or becoming independent. The UK refuses the request of the Afghan note. A second Afghan note to the UK on this subject. Prime Minister Shah Mahmud -Khan-visits England and the US. Afghanistan casts the sole vote against the admission of Pakistan to the UN. Later it reverses this vote. Afghanistan and the USSR sign a one-year Commercial Agree- ment. Afghanistan and India agree to exchange ambassadors. Minister of National Economy Ludin visits the US. Afghanistan and Pakistan agree to exchange ambassadors. 62 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 ? ? March August SECRET Afghanistan and US announce that their legations at Washington and Kabul will be raised to embassies. Afghanistan and the UK likewise agree to raise legations to embassies. Afghanistan and the USSR sign a second one-year Commercial Agreement. 63 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 SECRET ? APPENDIX F IMPORTANT AFGHAN OFFICIALS Chief of State Prime Minister Minister of War Minister of Foreign Affairs Minister of the Interior and Assistant Prime Minister Minister of Justice Minister of Finance Minister of Education (Acting) Minister of National Economy Minister of Public Health Minister of Public Works Minister of Posts and Telegraph Minister of Mines (Acting) Minister of State without Portfolio Minister of Court Director General of Agriculture Director General of Publicity President of the National Assembly President of the Senate H. M. Mohammad Zahir Shah H. R. H. Sardar Shah Mahmud Khan H. E. Mohammad Omar Khan H. E. Ali Mohammad Khan H. R. H. Sardar Asadullah Khan H. E. Mir Atta Mohammad Khan Hoseyni H. E. Mohammad Nowruz Khan H. E. Najibullah Khan (Torwayana) H. E. Abdul Majid Khan Dr. Abdul Majid H. E. Mohammad Kabir Khan (Ludin) H. E. Abdullah Khan H. E. Sardar Gholam Mohammad Khan H. E. Mirza Mohammad Khan Sardar Ahmad Shah Khan H. E. Mohammad Atiq Khan Rafiq H. E. Salaheddin Khan Sultan Ahmad Khan H. E. Fazal Ahmad Khan Mojaddidi 65 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 PROVISIONAL RESTRICTED Figure 11 10945 63 66 69 72 NOTE:. Spelling of place names for all areas except the U.S.S.R. was taken from Survey of India ,i,000,000) sheets. 2. The international boundaries shown on this map do not necessarily correspond in all cases to the boundaries recognized birth U. S. Government. BASE: AAF AERONAUTICAL CHARTS 11,000,000 _ (sheets covering area of map), Army Map Service, 1945-48. Bukhara 39 Chardzhou Tedzhen Serakhs P'r UNDEMARCA TED ach Post AFGHANISTAN ETHNIC, LINGUISTIC AND RELIGIOUS GROUPS Fort Sandeman SETTLED Quetta ETHNIC INDO-IRANIAN Afghan Iranian I GROUPS TURKIC Uzbek Turkomen Tajik WWI Kirghiz Baluchi MONGOL INDO-ARYAN j Hazara Kafir 'Mil Chahar Aimak LINGUISTIC GROUPS RELIGIOUS GROUPS Pushtu Persian Turki Li Other 2 'Sunni Moslem Shia Moslem Selected Route Connecting Route Railroad Scale 1:3,500,00,0 50 100 150 Miles V 100 150 =N Kilometers RESTRICTED 10945 Map Branch, CIA, 7-48 .111111110111?11M011111?11111?1 U.S. GPO-S Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 PROVISIONAL Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 RESTRICTED Figure III .......- 66 69 72 Ei t Spielling'ofpLc'e n 'eines' fc, all :4rsea's exce th 'U.S.S.R.s BukharaW olntein frcirii... utveraf,,Idia'fiti,o'c?0,600), shets. ,- - ,,The'iiiiejnIioiial brijndarieisho'wn5,6 'ases, tO- the ounaries reco n d eX'sarily cditespahd in all c bd V the U S Goveiiiir)ent" .: ,i,,--i,'-1,... ? ', - ' - ' . 1 Kag , tnirkand - ..... - - . 39 , , ? ,-- - ,- .,:. ,;,- - ,,, .1.. .',..,1',A,--.= -,=, ,,,,',. tSE?A,;,,IF'til.ERO.h/AUTI'CAL CHARTS i'tt,000,00,0 _, .,-, (sheets_o9Vorin aiea`isT thaja), ATV, yap Servige,,T9457 , . - , Chardzhdu . . ,' Pendzhikertt - . ? i ' Kit ab . arm ii 0 zero , , ,..? 0111,K 1 39 ., Ka 1 ., . - .. liriabaCI afirnigan, . Gu a ? ? .1 , -,/ k' ? ---.. s ,',KalaiI-1..thullY -- ' ? i.?t,,V 63 ? 66 69 72 10946 Map Branch, CIA, 7-48 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 U.S. GPO-S Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Figure" IV PROVISIONAL SECRET 10947 NOTE: i.Spehiog 1pIace nam'eS for all a'reisi !jeeps' the ah. taken from Survey-o( India (1 tr,000:000), sheets. 2. The internatiOnal bo'undaries Shown on this rhip-do not .. , , , ecessarily reSpOlIU In all CaSeS ie. the boundaries reo4nized Chaidihou Langer ab Cha kar AFGHANISTAN MINERAL RESOURCES Selected Route Connecting Route Railroad 10947 Map Branch, CIA, 7-48 U.S. GPO-S Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/05: CIA-RDP78-01617A001600100001-2 PROVISIONAL Figure V , 66 69 72 E Spellin Of Olade rn?ine for' 011'a*re.is exc t ti?: (J,...S.R. taken' Iron; Survey It ?.' ' khara ' of India :i,006,620) sneretsf . . . ii:tanyt. t erna t i ponozdd b o r I _ 6. al, 0 t 'Les n inunfiYaressessO w 't'll: L d 'i.idr:ries recZn1;eci ' ::bey 'the P, Sc.?COoyernrnent. 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