IRELAND

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A001700040001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 47
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 19, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 1, 1949
• Content Type: REPORT

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von flit. etiltAelelA LIBRARY
IRELAND
SR-48
Published 1 April 1949
PO (2-.:2 in ClaJs.
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TO: TS S C
Lo, 4 Apr 77
r-a Y-.J. 77/1763
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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WARNING
This document contains information affecting the na-
tional defense of the United States within the meaning
of the Espionage Act, 50 U.S.C., 31 and 32, as amended.
Its transmission or the revelation of its contents in any
manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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4,ttaEgRET?
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DISSEMINATION NOTICE
1. This copy of this publication is for the information and use of the recipient
designated on the front cover and of individuals under the jurisdiction of the recipient's
office who require the information for the performance of their official duties. Further
dissemination elsewhere in the department to other offices which require the informa-
tion for the performance of official duties may be authorized by the following:
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the Department of State
b. Director of Intelligence, GS, USA, for the Department of the Army
c. Chief, Naval Intelligence, for the Department of the Navy
d. Director of Intelligence, USAF, for the Department of the Air Force
e. Director of Security and Intelligence, AEC, for the Atomic Energy Com-
mission
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2. This copy may be either retained or destroyed by burning in accordance with
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DISTRIBUTION:
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Document o. ())
NO CHANGE in Class. 0
ItaDECLASSIFIED
'lse. CEIIICED TO: TS S
DA Imo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DD1 RTC. 77/1763
Date: 051 i 7? By: Z
1
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Published April 1949 egre're'D
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SR-48
IRELAND
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SUMMARY
CHAPTER I ? POLITICAL SITUATION
1. GENESIS OF THE PRESENT POLITICAL SITUATION
2. PRESENT GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURE 6
3. POLITICAL PARTIES 8
a. Fianna Fail 9
b. Fine Gael 10
c. Claim na Poblachta 10
d. Labor Party 11
e. National Labor Party 11
f. Farmers 12
g. Independents 12
4. OTHER GROUPS AND ORGANIZATIONS 12
a. The Roman Catholic Church 12
b. Communists 13
c. Irish Republican Army 13
d. Other Influential Groups 14
5. PARTITION 14
6. CURRENT POLITICAL ISSUES 16
7. STABILITY OF THE PRESENT ADMINISTRATION 17
CHAPTER II? ECONOMIC SITUATION
1. POPULATION AND NATURAL RESOURCES 19
2. AGRICULTURE 20
3. INDUSTRY AND LABOR 21
4. FINANCE 22
5. FOREIGN TRADE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 23
CHAPTER III ? FOREIGN AFFAIRS
1. IRISH FOREIGN POLICY 27
2. RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE COMMONWEALTH 28
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CHAPTER IV ? MILITARY SITUATION 29
CHAPTER V ? STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS AFFECTING UNITED STATES
SECURITY 31
CHAPTER VI? PROBABLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING UNITED
STATES SECURITY? 33
APPENDIX A ? Topography and Climate 35
APPENDIX B ? Significant Personalities 37
APPENDIX C ? Transportation and Communications Facilities 41
APPENDIX D ? Population 43
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SUMMARY
Because hostile military forces established in Ireland would be in a position to
dominate lines of communication vital to the security of the United Kingdom and to
develop air and submarine bases for attacks against North American war capabilities,
denial of Ireland to an enemy is an inescapable principle of United States security.
As an ally in an East-West war, Ireland would be a positive asset because it could
provide sites for air and naval bases, sheltered by Britain's air defenses, from which
strategic bombing, anti-submarine, and convoy protection operations could be facili-
tated. Although Irish neutrality in such a war would probably be tolerable, it could
become necessary to utilize Ireland for these purposes under conceivable circumstances
of sustained aerial bombardment or hostile occupation of British ports. Actually, Ire-
land is already ideologically aligned with the West, is strongly Catholic and anti-
Communist, and, in spite of military weakness and the Partition issue, would probably
not remain neutral in an East-West war.
The Partition issue stems from the Government of Ireland Act of 1920, confirmed
in the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921. Under the Treaty twenty-six of the thirty-two coun-
ties of Ireland gained dominion status, but the six northeastern counties, established as
Northern Ireland by the 1920 Act, remained in the United Kingdom. Partition is a
constant irritant in Anglo-Irish relations. Its abolition is the principal aim of national
policy. The Irish Government has refused to join any military alliance involving the
United Kingdom while Partition continues.
Primarily a farming country, Ireland has developed economically as a source
of agricultural products for the United Kingdom. Its principal exports are live cattle,
of which it is the United Kingdom's chief supplier. Ireland is deficient in natural
resources and there are no large basic industries. A member of the sterling area with
special fiscal ties to the United Kingdom, Ireland faced difficult postwar problems as
a result of war-imposed dislocations of its economy and the inconvertibility of sterling.
At present Ireland is dependent on an ECA loan for dollar purchases. The economic
situation has shown improvement in recent months.
On 18 April 1949 Ireland will complete the process of separation from the British
Commonwealth and will thereafter be known as the Republic of Ireland. Politically
Ireland is a democracy, the structure of its government reflecting British constitutional
and legal influences. Elections, however, are by the system of proportional representa-
tion, which tends to a multiplicity of parties and makes it difficult for any party to
obtain a majority of seats in the legislature. At present the largest party is in op-
position. All others are participating in the "inter-party Government." This coali-
tion, although it has shown an unexpected stability since coming into office in Febru-
ary 1948, is in a precarious position since the withdrawal of any party or a shift of a
few votes would topple it. Ireland, however, is stable constitutionally, if not politically;
and the policies and attitudes of any other Government would not differ widely from
those of the present Government.
Note: This report has been concurred in by the intelligence organizations of the Departments of
State, the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force, and is based on information available to
CIA in March 1949.
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CHAPTER I
POLITICAL SITUATION
1. GENESIS OF THE PRESENT POLITICAL SITUATION.
Its geographical proximity to Great Britain has been the principal determinant
of the course of Ireland's history?which is essentially the history of Anglo-Irish re-
lations. The Norman invasion of England spilled over into Ireland in the twelfth
century. For four hundred years Celt and Norman lived side by side, neither in un-
disputed control, their two races gradually fusing. English control was effective in
only a small part of the country, and the Anglo-Norman influx did not produce a
unified nation-state. Under the Tudors, in the late fifteenth and early sixteenth cen-
turies, began the effort to enhance the effectiveness and expand the area of English
control. Lest Ireland become a base for England's enemies, England felt it must wield
military, political, and economic dominion over the neighboring island. The failure
of the Reformation to win over Ireland increased both the English determination to
succeed and the Irish will to resist. Complete English domination was centuries in
the making, and the heritage of bitterness engendered in the process has not dissipated
yet.
The conquests and rebellions of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries ended in
the complete subjugation of the Irish. Following the dispossession of the Irish chief-
tains and the Roman Catholic Anglo-Irish nobles came the various "Plantations," or
colonizations, the most effective of which was the deliberate settlement of Ulster with
English and Scottish Protestants in the early seventeenth century?the root of the
present problem of Partition. The last great Plantation followed the Battle of the
Boyne in 1690 when the deposed Catholic English monarch, James II, supported by the
Catholic Irish, was defeated by William III. This victory of English Protestantism
was one of the major influences on the development of modern Ireland.
The impoverished Catholic tenant peasantry was dominated politically, economi-
cally, and socially by a prosperous Protestant oligarchy. Representation in the Irish
Parliament, which had only limited powers in any case, was restricted to the ruling
minority. Tithes were exacted from the unwilling population for the support of the
established Church of Ireland, an Anglican communion. The activities of the Catholic
Church were restricted and disabilities were imposed upon its adherents (and also upon
Protestant dissenters) , thereby confirming the association of Ireland's national cause
with the Roman Catholic faith. The Gaelic tongue began to disappear, helped by
Irish emigration, the predominance of English political institutions, and a deliberate
governmental policy of anglicization. Applications of mercantilist principles stifled
Irish industry and trade, affecting especially the Protestants of Ulster but hindering the
economic development of the whole country. The government was corrupt, the people
poor and bitter and torn by religious dissension; constitutional reforms in the last
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decades of the 18th century could not stem the rising tides of revolt. The republican
and nationalist rebellion of 1798, which had been inspired in part by the American and
French examples, led in 1800 to the Act of Union, accomplished largely through political
bribery in Dublin and London, which united Great Britain and Ireland in one kingdom
with one Parliament in which both were represented. The rebellion also solidly estab-
lished the ideal of an independent Irish Republic which was to bring about the end
of that union over a century later.
As the nineteenth century opened, Ireland, in striking contrast to wealthy and
powerful Great Britain, was a desperately poor and undeveloped country. The Irish-
man's sense of oppression fed on the disabilities imposed on him because of his religion,
on his economic and social subjugation, and on his hunger for land. His appetite for
independence was whetted by the stand-pat attitude of the Tory element in England
towards the "Irish Question", an attitude produced at least in part by their failure
to comprehend the fundamental nature of the Irishman's grievances and aspirations.
The nineteenth century, which saw the decimation of the Irish population by famine
and emigration, was marked by occasional armed uprisings against British rule, by the
frustrated efforts of a succession of brilliant Irish political leaders to obtain Home Rule
through parliamentary processes, and by attempts by force as well as by parliamentary
means to satisfy the land hunger of the Irish masses. Political equality for Catholics
was secured in 1829. The Anglican Church of Ireland was disestablished in 1869. The
eventual displacement of the landlords, many of whom were absentees, by peasant
proprietors was initiated by legislation at the end of the century. But such reforms
did not stunt the growth of a nationalism which was receiving increasing moral and
financial support from Irish emigrants and their descendants in America and elsewhere.
In 1886 and 1892 Home Rule Bills had failed of adoption in the British Parliament;
a third Home Rule Bill, passed over the veto of the House of Lords, was due to become
law in 1914. The Unionists of northeastern Ulster were threatening to resist the Bill's
implementation, while the Nationalists were preparing to welcome it. As World War
I broke out, the atmosphere in Ireland was more tense than it had been for over a
century, and in September 1914, the operation of the Bill was suspended. By 1918
mere Home Rule was, to the great majority of Irishmen, no longer acceptable. With
the advent of the twentieth century had come a great burst of nationalism sparked by
a remarkable literary renaissance and a movement for the revival of the Gaelic lan-
guage and culture, by a rapidly growing labor movement, and by a secret revolutionary
society which was heir to the republican ideal. To the men of these movements any-
thing less than complete independence was intolerable; it was they who organized
the quite hopeless but deeply stirring rebellion of Easter Week, 1916. The Rising
failed, but the national passion for independence was fired by the stern punishment
meted out to its leaders and Irish nationalism began a drive for complete independence.
In the parliamentary elections of 1918 the independence-bent Sinn Fein * organ-
ization swept the polls in Ireland. The 73 Sinn Fein members (out of 105) returned
at the election were pledged not to attend the Parliament at Westminster; they met
* Meaning "Ourselves."
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in Dublin as Dail Eireann*, issued a Declaration of Independence, and set up a Govern-
ment of the Irish Republic. The two years of exhausting guerrilla warfare that followed
ended in compromise: the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921?known to Irishmen simply as
the Treaty?which provided for the establishment of the Irish Free State. The Free
State, however, did not include all of Ireland; the six northeastern counties of Ulster
chose to remain a part of the United Kingdom. Nor was it a Republic, for the Treaty
provided that it was to have the status of a dominion of the British Commonwealth.
But the Treaty settlement was nevertheless accepted by a majority of Irishmen, and
in 1922 under W. T. Cosgrave the first Government of the Irish Free State assumed office.
To Cosgrave and his supporters, who remained in power for ten years, the Treaty
afforded "freedom to achieve freedom". Their administration was conservative and
primarily concerned with the problem of restoring internal stability. In the first two
years of the Cosgrave Government guerilla warfare was waged against the Free State
by remnants of the Irish Republican Army who had vowed to continue the struggle for
a united Ireland completely independent of the United Kingdom. The bitterness
generated by the "Civil War" still plagues Irish politics.
Even after the restoration of tranquillity the republicans, most of them now organ-
ized into the Fianna Fail party under Eamon De Valera, a principal leader in the
struggle for independence, boycotted the Free State Government. Until 1927 the elected
Fianna Fail deputies refused to take the oath prescribed for Dail deputies on the ground
that it was an oath of allegiance to the King. Finally, in 1927, the oath was sworn?
as an "empty political formula"?and De Valera led Fianna Fail into the Dail. In 1932
he formed the Government that was to remain in power for the next sixteen years.
The pro-Commonwealth policies of the Cosgrave Government were reversed. Fianna
Fail envisaged complete Irish political and economic independence. A discontinuance
of certain land annuity payments to the British precipitated a tariff war and a general
deterioration of Anglo-Irish relations. The land annuities dispute was settled in 1938
and a trade agreement concluded; the British also relinquished the three naval bases
in Ireland reserved under the Treaty. Meanwhile, Fianna Fail had been only partially
successful in its program to lessen economic dependence on the United Kingdom by
fostering Irish industrial development. But it had proceeded far with the implementa-
tion of its nationalistic aims. By the time of the adoption of the present Constitution
in 1937, the functions of the Crown in Irish domestic affairs had been completely dis-
carded and in external affairs there remained only a very tenuous link with the Com-
monwealth.
The 1930's were also turbulent years internally, with armed political demonstra-
tions and even terrorism not uncommon. Before the formation of the Fianna Fail
Party, De Valera had broken with the militant extremists of the Irish Republican
Army (IRA) ; but, in office, he was reluctant to suppress them and he lifted the ban
imposed under Cosgrave. The IRA had remained active and armed while illegal; and
now, in a time of depression and deteriorated relations with the United Kingdom, it
became a serious menace. During this period an unarmed counter organization,
* Literally, "Assembly of Ireland".
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eventually called the Blueshirts, was formed along para-military lines. The leading
Opposition party came under partial Blueshirt control for a time. The activities of the
Blueshirts were restricted by the Government and eventually ceased; but not until the
Cosgrave Party, the present Fine Gael, had been demoralized by association with them,
for the Blueshirts in their later days had begun to preach doctrines Fascist in con-
notation. The IRA was finally declared an illegal organization in 1936, and the proc-
lamation was renewed under the new Constitution.
By the beginning of World War II Ireland had emerged from this period of political,
economic, and social discord. De Valera's administration was popular, and his policy
of neutrality had universal support. The settlement of 1938 had ended a period of
disputatious Anglo-Irish relations, but neutrality in World War II posed a new problem.
The respect accorded their neutrality did much to alleviate Irish dislike and mistrust
of the English although Ireland's neutrality hardened the attitude of Northern Ire-
land. At present Anglo-Irish relations, although 'still complicated by Partition, are
more friendly than ever.
The end of the war found the country with a serious economic problem and the
electorate in the mood for a change of Government.
2. PRESENT GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURE.
The present Constitution has been in effect since 29 December 1937. The structure
of the State and the form of government reflect the influence of British institutions:
a unitary State and a parliamentary democracy governed by a Cabinet responsible to
a popularly elected legislature. Subject to the Constitution, the Oireachtas, or Na-
tional Parliament, consisting of the President and two houses, exercises exclusive legis-
lative authority. In practice the legislative power is exercised by the Dail, or House
of Representatives; the Seanad, or Senate, cannot ultimately prevent the passage of
any measure. Parliamentary supremacy exists but is qualified by certain constitu-
tional restrictions on the legislative power. For example, the right to own and transfer
property is guaranteed by the Constitution; a law infringing that right would be de-
clared unconstitutional if judicially reviewed. Constitutional amendments must be
approved by popular referendum, and no significant amendments have been made since
the adoption of the Constitution.
The President of Ireland is elected by universal suffrage for a term of seven years.
He is the ranking personage in the State and is considered above politics. Sean T.
O'Kelly has been President since 1945 when he succeeded Douglas Hyde, the first Presi-
dent. Presidential duties are largely non-discretionary and must be exercised in
nearly all instances on the advice of the Government.
The mechanics of government parallel the British system. The executive power
is exercised by the Government which is collectively responsible to the Dail. The Dail
is elected by universal suffrage for a statutory maximum period of five years. A gen-
eral election must also be held within thirty days of a dissolution of the Dail by the
President, which must be on the advice of the Prime Minister. Since the President,
however, may in his discretion, refuse to dissolve on the advice of a Prime Minister who
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has ceased to retain majority support, it is constitutionally possible for a change of
Government to occur without a general election. The Taoiseach, or Prime Minister,
is appointed by the President on the nomination of the Dail; that is, he is elected by
the Dail and must therefore have the support of a majority of the deputies voting.
The other Cabinet Ministers are appointed by the President on the nomination of the
Prime Minister with the previous approval of the Dail. The Prime Minister must resign
when he loses the confidence of the Dail unless on his advice the President dissolves the
Dail and on its re-assembly after the general election he secures the support of a
majority. While a Prime Minister retains majority support, he may compel a dissolu-
tion at any time, thus precipitating a general election.
The Dail is elected on the basis of proportional representation by means of the
single transferable vote. At present there are 147 deputies in the Dail and forty con-
stituencies, twenty-two of them returning three deputies, nine returning four, and
nine returning five. Although proportional representation has encouraged small par-
ties and has given each party seats in rough proportion to its strength, it has made it
difficult for a party to obtain an absolute majority of seats in the Dail. Coalition Gov-
ernment is the usual result of proportional representation. Ireland, however operated
under this system for twenty-two years before it had a Government in which more than
one party participated. But in the first five of those years the largest opposition party
did not attend the sessions of the Dail, and in twelve of the remaining twenty-one years
the Government party had a mere plurality and the Government was maintained in
office by the votes or abstentions of one or more of the smaller parties. Only in the
periods 1938-43 and 1944-48 did the Government party command an absolute majority.
The present Government which prefers to call itself an "inter-party Government" rather
than a coalition is nevertheless a majority coalition of all except the largest party.
The Seanad, or Senate, is composed of sixty members, forty-three elected from
panels representing various vocational interests, six elected by the universities, and
eleven appointed by the Prime Minister. Panel elections are by a complicated propor-
tional representation procedure and must be held within ninety days of a dissolution
Of the Dail; electors are the members of both houses and of local government bodies.
The Senate was not intended to be a politically tinged body, but it has become so: a
party's strength in elected Senators usually reflects its strength in the Dail, and the
appointed Senators are often defeated candidates for the Dail. The Senate performs
the usual second house function of amending and revising measures passed in the
lower house. In case of disagreement with the Dail the Senate may exercise a delaying
rather than a rejecting power. Given the present tendency of the party situation in
?the Senate to parallel that in the Dail, a flat refusal of a Dail-passed bill would be most
unusual; and it has, in fact, not occurred since the adoption of the present Constitution.
For local government purposes Ireland is divided into administrative counties and
county boroughs headed by a manager and a council elected triennially by proportional
representation. Urban districts within the administrative counties have their own
elected councils. For the most part held over from the British regime, the local
government system is an outdated and much criticized hodge-podge. A revamping
of the system within the next few years is likely.
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The English common law prevails in Ireland and the judicial system is like that
of the United States and England. There is a High Court with original jurisdiction
and a Supreme Court with final appellate jurisdiction; in addition, there are local
courts of limited jurisdiction and justices of the peace. All judges are appointed by
the President and may be removed from office only for stated misbehavior upon resolu-
tion passed by the Dail and Senate. The Constitution guarantees to the judges free
exercise of their judicial functions. The caliber of the Irish bench and bar is com-
parable to the British, and the administration of justice is on an equally high plane.
With the exception of a literary censorship on moralistic lines the usual civil
liberties characterizing a democratic State exist and are guaranteed by the Constitu-
tion. The Protestant minority has full religious freedom; in fact, the first President
of Ireland under the 1937 Constitution, Douglas Hyde, was a Protestant.
The civil service system parallels the British: it is administered by a Civil Service
Commission in the Department of Finance which recruits by examination. Proficiency
in Irish (Gaelic) is a requisite. The tradition that civil servants do not engage in
politics prevails, and they retain their positions on a change of Government. There
is a permanent civil service head, called Secretary, of each government department.
The level of literacy is high. Elementary education, free and compulsory, is given
in the national schools. The State also maintains technical and agricultural schools;
but secondary schools generally are under private control although they are usually
assisted by State grants and are therefore subject to State inspection. University
education is available at the National University of Ireland, with constituent colleges
at Dublin, Cork, Galway, and Maynooth (ecclesiastical) , and the University of Dublin
(Trinity College).
3. POLITICAL PARTIES.
Political violence has faded from the scene in Ireland. But although the Treaty
is no longer an issue, the many personal antagonisms which originated in 1921-23 when
Irish nationalists fought one another over its acceptance still persist. Political speeches
and parliamentary debates are often stormy and bitter, but political life is now more
characterized by controversial personalities than by controversial issues. For the most
part the parties all exercise effective parliamentary discipline. But in the parties gener-
ally there are varying points of view, some of them more closely allied policy-wise with
the views of groups in other parties than with other groups in the same party. Con-
sequently, no ideological labeling of the parties is entirely satisfactory. However, a
rough arrangement?from right to left?might be as follows: Fine Gael, Clann na
Talhman, Fianna Fail, National Labor, Clann na Poblachta, Labor. All parties are at
one in opposing Partition. In addition, there is a wide area of agreement on basic out-
look among Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, and Clann na Talhman on the one hand and
between Clann na Poblachta and Labor on the other. It is possible, therefore, that new
parties and combinations will be formed; a union of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail is
presently impeded principally by personal differences and prejudices deeply ingrained
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in the present generation of political leaders. An eventual, and probably gradual, total
realignment into the natural party components of right, left, and center is not unlikely.
At present the largest party, De Valera's Fianna Fail, is in Opposition. The Gov-
ernment is a coalition of all other parties, three of them of moderate size, two of them
clinging tenaciously to their separate existences by virtue of proportional representa-
tion. In the general election of 1944 Fianna Fail obtained a clear majority of seats.
Despite public dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living, the security of the De
Valera Government seemed assured until 1949, the full statutory term of the Dail, when
the Government decided late in 1947 to seek a new lease on life and risk a general election
the following February. Its decision was motivated principally by a desire to nip in
the bud the growing threat of the newly organized Clann na Poblachta, which had
captured two seats from Fianna Fail in by-elections in October 1947. Fianna Fail
underestimated both the degree of public dissatisfaction with the cost of living and
the capacity of the smaller parties to form a coalition in the event of Fianna Fail's
falling short of a majority. The election was held on 4 February 1948; of 147 seats,
Fianna Fail won only 68. The smaller parties and most of the Independents united
against De Valera, and the Dail elected John A. Costello Prime Minister and approved
his "inter-party Government" which represented every party except Fianna Fail.
a. Fianna Fail.
Fianna Fail * is the party of Eamon De Valera. Its policies on international
affairs are influenced by intense nationalism and by a disillusionment with Big Power
? policies which began to harden in 1935-36 when De Valera advocated a stronger League
of Nations line with Italy than the United Kingdom and France were prepared to
follow. It is perhaps the most neutrality-minded of the parties. In domestic affairs
it is a party of the center favoring a limited amount of state control of the economy
and state assistance in the development of industry. The party was formed in 1926
from the group of anti-Treaty Republicans who had broken with the Irish Republican
Army but were still boycotting the Free State Government. In 1927, the Fianna Fail
deputies entered the Dail, thus in effect finally recognizing the legitimacy of the Irish
Free State. In 1932, De Valera, supported by the Labor Party, formed a Fianna Fail
Government. Although his party often had less than half the seats in the Dail, De
Valera remained in office until February 1948, surviving in the meantime five general
elections, the depression, a tariff war with the UK, threats to the security of the State
from dissident extremist elements and, finally, World War II. During these sixteen
years nearly all manifestations of association with the British Commonwealth were
discarded; an essentially Republican Constitution was adopted; and an effort was
made?with limited success?to build up industry and lessen the degree of economic
dependence on the United Kingdom.
Fianna Fail's failure to secure a clear majority in the general election of
February 1948, was attributable to public dissatisfaction with high prices, the com-
placency its officials had developed after so many years in power, and the electorate's
?
* Meaning "Soldiers of Destiny"; it combines the name of a band of militia famous in Irish
mythology and the word for destiny.
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natural desire for a change. However, it is still the largest, best-organized, and wealthi-
est party in Ireland; it is by no means facing disintegration, and it expects to be re-
turned to power at the next election. Fianna Fail received 42 percent of the first
preference votes in the February 1948 election, and has 68 seats in the Dail. It re-
ceives varying degrees of support from all localities and classes. The party machinery
is presently undergoing some reorganization with the object of obtaining greater sup-
port from younger voters.
De Valera is still leader of the party and its greatest political asset. Heir-
apparent is Sean Lemass, lately De Valera's deputy Prime Minister and presently the
chief Opposition spokesman in the Dail and a managing director of the Irish Press,
the Fianna Fail newspaper. While not as inspiring a leader as De Valera, Lemass is
a competent administrator and an experienced politician; he is conducting the attempt
to revitalize the party.
b. Fine Gael.
Fine Gael,* the second largest party, is distinguished from Fianna Fail not
so much by issues as by personal animosities stemming originally from the 1922-23
"Civil War" over acceptance of the Treaty and secondarily from long years of political
opposition. Basic domestic policies of the two parties are essentially identical, with
Fine Gael tending to be somewhat more conservative and until the recent past more
sympathetic toward the Commonwealth connection.
Fine Gael has evolved from W. T. Cosgrave's pro-Treaty party, in power from
1922 to 1932. In the last election, it received 20% of the first preferences, less than
half the Fianna Fail vote. With thirty-one seats in the Dail it is the strongest party
in the present coalition Government, of whose thirteen members, six, including the
Prime Minister, are members of the Fine Gael. The wealthy and conservative elements
and those most friendly to the British tend to support Fine Gael, but its adherents
are not limited to these classes.
An absolute Fine Gael majority at a future election does not appear likely,
although the party may increase in strength as the present Government proves success-
ful. Its strength has remained approximately static through several general elections,
the principal reason being the narrowing since 1932 of the gap between its domestic
policies and those of Fianna Fail and the settlement for practical purposes of the
great issue of the Treaty.
General Richard Mulcahy has led the party since Cosgrave's retirement in
1944. However, his leadership of the Free State forces during the "Civil War" left him
too controversial a figure to be a coalition leader; and the post of Prime Minister in the
"inter-party Government" went to John A. Costello, a highly respected barrister and a
long-time Fine Gael front-bencher.
c. Clann na Poblachta.
The left-of-center Clann na Poblachta, or Republican Party, was formed in
1946 by Sean MacBride, the present Minister for External Affairs. The fourth largest
* Literally, "Tribe of the Gael."
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party in the Dail, the Clann received 13 percent of the first preference vote and ten
deputies at the last election. It was expected to do better. Although MacBride is
said to have been associated with the illegal Irish Republican Army until about 1939,
the Clann has demonstrated no unconstitutional tendencies and has repudiated with
apparently justified resentment charges that it harbors Communists.
The decision to repeal the External Relations Act, while agreed to by all parties
in the Government, reflects the influence of Clann na Poblachta in the coalition. For
the Clann, although it favors friendly Anglo-Irish relations, was the only party to
advocate during the 1947-48 election campaign that Ireland withdraw completely from
the Commonwealth. Clann na Poblachta's domestic policy, somewhat socialistic, re-
sembles that of a Continental, Catholic, centrist party and contemplates increased
social welfare schemes; a State program for the development of industry, agriculture,
and natural resources; and the equating of credit and monetary facilities to the needs
of full employment and production.
Although it is an aggressive young party with an attractive program and
a glamorous leader, Clann na Poblachta's future is problematical. The Clann is in
dire financial straits at the moment and, although MacBride is still firmly in control,
is experiencing some internal dissension. This is attributable to the dissatisfaction
of many Republicans, some of them only recently converted to constitutional ways,
with the Government's failure to make progress toward the ending of Partition. How-
ever, even should Clann na Poblachta lose support at the next election, MacBride him-
self is likely to remain a powerful force in Irish politics.
d. Labor Party.
The Labor Party, sponsored by the Irish Trade Union Congress, received 9
percent of the first preferences in the February 1948 election. With fourteen deputies
it is the third largest party in the Dail. Its program is similar to Clann na Poblachta's
although Labor is naturally more trade-union conscious than the Clann. It is led
by William Norton, Tanaiste or deputy Prime Minister in the present Government,
who represents the conservative trade-union element within the party. There are
some left-wing socialists in the party, notably ex-Communist James Larkin, Jr., who
occupy the most extreme left position possible in Irish politics.
Most Irish workers are agricultural laborers among whom the unions have
only recently begun to have any influence. Even Irish industrial workers have not
supported the Irish Labor Party as solidly and consistently as British workers have
the British Labor Party. In the past the working class vote seems to have oscillated
between Labor and Fianna Fail; at present it is apparently divided among the Labor
parties, Fianna Fail, and Clann na Poblachta. There are no indications of any large
increases in Labor strength within the next few years.
e. National Labor Party.
The National Labor Party broke off from the Labor Party in 1944 at about
the same time that some of the largest unions in Ireland withdrew from the Irish
Trade Union Congress (ITUC) to establish the Congress of Irish Unions (CIU) because
of dissatisfaction with the British connections of some of the ITUC unions. The party
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received only 3 percent of the first preferences in the February 1948 election; with
five seats in the Dail it is the smallest organized party in the house. However, so close
was Fianna Fail to the majority that without the support of National Labor a non-
Fianna Fail coalition could not have been formed, and not until the night before the
first assembly of the Dail after the general election did National Labor decide to support
the coalition. The parliamentary leader of the party, James Everett, became Minister
for Posts and Telegraphs, a relatively unimportant post except that the incumbent
has considerable patronage to dispense. Although it is considered to be the political
wing of the CIU, the party's adherence to the coalition was in defiance of the CIU,
which favored a De Valera Government rather than a coalition. Actually, association
with the CIU was a slight political benefit to the party, as the number of National
Labor first preferences was less than one-fourth of the number of members of the various
unions associated with the CIU.
The party's policies are similar to those of the Labor Party, i.e., mildly
socialistic. There is, however, no extreme left-wing element in the National Labor
Party.
f. Farmers.
Clann na Talhman, which received 5 percent of the first preference votes at
the February 1948 election, is the only organized farmers' party. It is essentially a
peasant party and advocates government assistance in the development of agriculture.
It has seven deputies in the Dail; in addition there are several members classified as
Independent Farmers, or simply as Farmers; and at least one of the Independents is
sometimes listed as an Independent Farmer. All these deputies usually vote together.
In general, Clann na Talhman, whose limited strength is concentrated in the rural
districts, represents the interests of the small farmers while the Independent Farmers
represent the large landowners. Although Ireland is predominantly an agricultural
country, no purely farmers' party has ever achieved any great success at the polls; most
farmers support one of the larger parties. No increase in Clann na Talhman influence
or strength is expected. The party is a member of the present coalition Government,
and its leader, Joseph Blowick, is Minister for Lands.
g. Independents.
There are several deputies unaffiliated with any party. Most prominent
among them is James Dillon, present Minister for Agriculture, and a member of Fine
Gael until 1942 when he resigned from the party because of his disapproval of its
support of the popular policy of neutrality. Generally conservative, most of the In-
dependents are opposed to De Valera and support the present Government. Because
of the importance of names and associations in Ireland, the role of the Independent is
more important than elsewhere and running as an Independent more feasible.
4. OTHER GROUPS AND ORGANIZATIONS.
a. The Roman Catholic Church.
Ninety-four percent of the population of the twenty-six counties is Roman
Catholic, most of them devout churchgoers. In few other countries is the Church as
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strong; the influence of the parish priests and the prestige of the prelates are constant
factors in Irish life. The Church has an especially important position in education
since most schools are conducted by religious orders.
There is no Catholic party as such, but all parties could so qualify. The
Church does not engage directly in politics; and priests do not run for public office,
although some of them belong to political parties. The Government maintains cordial
relations with the hierarchy, whose members are frequently consulted by men in public
life and always represented on special committees such as that recently established
to investigate emigration. Their good offices have sometimes been used in the settle-
ment of important labor disputes.
The influence of the Church is apparent in the 1937 Constitution, which reflects
many aspects of the social papal encyclicals: the family, the social welfare function
of the State, and the right to own property are stressed; divorce is forbidden; and in
the structure of the Senate some recognition is given to the principle of vocational
representation.
The Church has generally been a conservative force. The bishops have not
hesitated to denounce political violence and oppose it with the powerful sanction of
excommunication. Historically the hierarchy, while perhaps not basically anti-nation-
alistic, seldom encouraged the Nationalist revolt against "lawfully constituted author-
ity." The parish priests, however, being closer to the people often tended to be more
radical.
b. Communists.
Communism has little appeal to the Irish, whose views on political, social, and
economic matters are conditioned by religious beliefs. The minute Communist element,
centered in Dublin, is believed to be led by Sean Nolan, a Dublin bookseller with con-
tacts in the US, Northern Ireland, and the United Kingdom. A monthly magazine,
The Review, which in general reflects the Communist line, is published in Dublin under
Nolan's sponsorship; it appears to be financed from American or British sources. Com-
munism is an almost insignificant force, and internally at least offers no conceivable
threat to the State. There has been no organized Communist Party in Ireland since
the early 1930's and there are at present no influential Communist or Communist-
front organizations. But the charge of Communism is an effective political weapon
and has been used against the Labor Party and Clann na Poblachta. Actually, there
is no substantial evidence that the labor movement or any of the political parties have
been infiltrated. Of important labor leaders only John Swift, head of the bakers'
union and prominent in the Irish Trade Union Congress, is known to have definite
Communist sympathies. There is an organized Communist Party in Northern Ireland
and in London there are Irish Communist organizations. Although these presumably
maintain close liaison with their confreres in Dublin, their influence and capabilities
in the twenty-six counties are negligible.
c. Irish Republican Army.
Among the die-hard republicans left in the Irish Republican Army (IRA) after
the formation of the Fianna Fail Party there developed some extreme leftists, and the
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IRA experienced the usual strains and schisms to which such organizations are subject.
It remained, however, ultra-nationalistic. The depression swelled its ranks and stimu-
lated its activities. Militant and subversive, the IRA remained active throughout the
1930's. It was declared an illegal organization by the Cosgrave Government in 1931,
but the ban was lifted the next year by De Valera. The IRA was again proscribed in
1936; and its activities were drastically curtailed during World War II, which saw many
of its members imprisoned and some of them executed, either in Ireland or in the United
Kingdom.
Little is known of the IRA. Although it still exists, its numbers are reported
to be small and its members in Ireland known and watched by the efficient police
force, the Garda Siochana, and military intelligence. It is strongest in Northern Ire-
land and in the border counties. Few acts of violence have been attributed to it in
recent years. It is capable of creating civil disorder the extent of which would depend
upon the issue involved. So long as Partition exists, the IRA is a factor limiting
internationalism.
Attitudes toward the IRA have been varied in Ireland. Today only a handful
support its methods. But Ireland is a country of patriots. An intense nationalist who
views his country's liberation as accomplished and accepts its constitution and laws
often cannot without some pangs condemn those who feel the cause is still to be pur-
sued by violence. In short, the IRA, although it has been generally condemned in
Ireland for many years, has been?and is?understood.
d. Other Influential Groups.
There are two central labor organizations in Ireland. The Irish Trade Union
Congress (ITUC) is affiliated with the British Trades Union Congress; many of its
unions have headquarters in the United Kingdom. The Congress of Irish Unions (CIU)
was set up in 1944, with the encouragement of the Fianna Fail Party, as an organiza-
tion of all-Irish unions unaffiliated with "foreign-dominated" organizations. The
ITUC speaks through the Labor Party; the CIU has not been able to control the
National Labor Party which it sponsored, but is, however, closely aligned with Fianna
Fail. Efforts to mend the breach have been unsuccessful so far, and unity in the Irish
labor movement is not an immediate prospect.
Among business organizations the Federation of Irish Manufacturers, repre-
senting an interest group concerned with the protection of industry, is important.
Also, there are various associations speaking for agricultural and professional groups.
Most important of the various social, religious, and cultural organizations is
Muintir na Tire (People of the Land) . Sponsored by churchmen, it is concerned with
the cultural and material welfare of the rural population and operates principally on
the parish level although its influence is sometimes exerted more broadly.
5. PARTITION.
In the "Plantation of Ulster" in the early seventeenth century forfeited lands
were turned over to Scottish and English settlers, who were?and are?Protestants.
Self-styled "King's men," they have opposed both the aspirations of Irish nationalists
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and the granting of self-government. The Government of Ireland Act of 1920 estab-
lished Northern Ireland, that is, the six northeastern counties of the nine counties of
Ulster; and the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921, establishing the Irish Free State, provided
that the Government of Northern Ireland could opt out. It promptly did so, and Par-
tition was accomplished. Northern Ireland possesses local autonomy but it is an inte-
gral part of the United Kingdom.
In the twenty-six counties, where Partition is a national grievance, all parties agree
that the unity of Ireland is the principal aim of national policy. In Northern Ireland
resistance to Irish nationalism is the chief tenet of the Unionist Party, which, supported
by about two-thirds of the electorate, has been in power since 1920. There is consid-
erable substance, however, to the Nationalist's charges of extensive gerrymandering and
franchise restrictions. While in the thirty-two counties as a whole Catholics out-
number Protestants three to one, in Northern Ireland, where 80 percent of the
island's Protestants live, Protestants outnumber Catholics nearly two to one, although
Catholicism is the largest single denomination. Nearly all Northern Protestants are
Unionists, demanding continued union with the United Kingdom, and all Catholics,
Nationalists, demanding reunion with the rest of Ireland.
Although two of the six counties, Tyrone and Fermanagh, have Catholic and
Nationalist majorities and there are Nationalist elements in other sections such as
Derry city and South Down, there is a strong Unionist majority in the six counties as
a whole. The Unionist attitude is reinforced by patriotic and religious considerations,
by Irish neutrality in World War II, and by the fact that social services in the twenty-
six counties are lower than in the United Kingdom. It is not certain, however, that the
northern industrialists would be altogether displeased to become part of a country with
lower taxes, higher protective tariffs, and lower wage levels.
Opposition to Partition in the twenty-six counties is genuine, not artificial; con-
stant, not occasional. If political parties keep the issue before the people, it is because
they cannot do otherwise and continue to exist; on this issue, if they sometimes deride
the effectiveness of opponents' methods, they seldom question the sincerity of their
motives.
Although there is only one attitude toward Partition in the twenty-six counties,
there are various approaches to the problem of ending it, ranging from IRA terrorism
and occasional impractical thoughts of challenging British military might to the
necessity of first securing a "concurrence of wills" and making a united Ireland attrac-
tive to the Unionists. But the view is widely held that Partition was perpetrated and
is maintained by the British and can be ended by them. The proposal with the widest
acceptance in the twenty-six counties is to agree to the continuance of the separate
Belfast Parliament, transferring to the Dail in Dublin the powers with respect to
Northern Ireland now exercised at Westminster.
Although the severance of the twenty-six counties' last legal tie to Crown and
Commonwealth has hardened the Unionist attitude, the Costello Government has
nevertheless exhibited unusual optimism that the end of Partition might not be far off.
This springs from a conviction that a united Ireland friendly to Britain would be more
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valuable in European defense plans than a divided Ireland, a belief that the British
Labor Party will right what seems to Ireland an international injustice, and a con-
fidence that anti-Partition pressure will be forthcoming from the United States. Suc-
cessive United Kingdom Governments, however, have asserted that Partition is a matter
for settlement between the two Irish Governments; Prime Minister Attlee has pledged
no change in Northern Ireland's constitutional status without its consent?a position,
given the Northern attitude, of upholding the status quo. At present there are no
convincing indications that the end of Partition is imminent.
6. CURRENT POLITICAL ISSUES.
An outbreak of war could divide opinion sharply. There is strong sentiment, espe-
cially in Fianna Fail and the left wings of labor and Clann na Poblachta, for making
international commitments contingent upon a settlement of Partition; and when the
issue is so stated, it is hard for the other parties to take a different line. In the event
of war, eventual Irish participation is probable despite Partition?but not without
opposition and possibly some civil disorder.
Other issues of international significance could emerge if the Government decides
to urge acceptance of the International Trade Organization Charter or to undertake
any commitments involving a modification of tariffs and other devices that have been
used for many years to stimulate industrial development. This would raise the first
important basic issue between Fianna Fail and the present Government; but such issue
is not in evidence yet. A party split on the question of whether to accept an ECA loan
from the United States was avoided although there was much dissatisfaction that
Ireland was not receiving an outright grant.
The most immediate problems are economic. In this sphere Opposition criticism
has been directed more at method than at principle and is designed to split the parties
in the coalition. Cuts in Government spending have been criticized where they resulted
from curtailment of such international prestige-building projects as operating a short-
wave transmitter and a trans-Atlantic air line. Abandonment of compulsory tillage
and reductions in the military budget have been objected to as shortsighted. The Gov-
ernment has been attacked for not concluding a more favorable trade agreement with
the United Kingdom. Reduction in the cost of living and expansion of social services
have been derided as not being extensive enough. Nationalization of the transport
monopoly, which is already partially under Government control, might become an
issue although the company's present financial plight is such that nationalization, if
proposed, is likely to be adopted without much opposition. More clearly defined issues
might emerge as the Government's policies on controls, taxation, and social welfare are
further revealed.
"Compulsory Irish" is an old issue that has recently been revived. Irish (Gaelic)
and English are both official languages. To achieve the patriotic aim of reviving Irish
as a spoken language, the teaching of it in the national schools and, where possible,
its use in the teaching of other subjects, except English, have been compulsory since
1922. Today nearly all persons know some Irish; but only among a handful of
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people is it in everyday use, and most of these live in remote western areas where the
old tongue was never displaced. Criticism has been directed against the requirement
that Irish be used as a teaching medium. As a result of current investigation of the
schools the Costello Government may relax this requirement although continuing to
promote the language through other means. Fianna Fail objections will be vigorous,
for many of its adherents?and some in all parties?have always considered the revival
of the national language essential to true nationhood and firmly believe that the
entire present program is necessary to attain that end.
7. STABILITY OF THE PRESENT ADMINISTRATION.
Every party except De Valera's Fianna Fail is participating in the "inter-party
Government." They were drawn together after the election less by differences of prin-
ciple with Fianna Fail than by a common dissatisfaction with the prospect of a con-
tinuation of its sixteen-year-old administration. Prime Minister Costello assumed office
amidst general predictions that another change of Government, and probably another
general election, would occur within a few months. The coalition has shown an unex-
pected stability, however, and its prestige has steadily mounted. Even so, its position
is so precarious that the withdrawal of any party or a switch of four votes could topple it.
If, for example, the Congress of Irish Unions should eventually be successful in its
efforts to persuade the National Labor Party, whose support for the coalition was a
surprise, to switch to De Valera, the Government would fall. If the regular Labor
? Party should become dissatisfied with the Government's policies and withdraw its sup-
port, or if party discipline within Clann na Poblachta should break down?both are
possibilities?the Government would probably fall. If any party should come to feel
that it has gained appreciably in popular support, it would be strongly tempted to try
to precipitate an election. And it is entirely possible that the Government will decide
to call an election while it still retains a majority.
If a party should "cross the floor?a remote contingency except in the case of
National Labor?a Fianna Fail Government could come in without a general election.
Even then De Valera might prefer an election in the hope of getting a clear Fianna Fail
majority. Barring this possibility, it is most likely that the passing of the present
Government will be followed by an immediate election.
The Costello Government may, of course, remain in office for a full five years. An
election could come about at any time, however, and chances are that one will before
the statutory life of the present Dail expires in 1953. While in such election De Valera
might be returned with a Fianna Fail majority behind him, it is more likely that
Fianna Fail would merely remain the largest party. Most probably the next Govern-
ment will be another coalition, based on either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, more probably
the latter, which is essentially the present situation.
Since, however, all parties accept the present democratic system and are not
divided by serious differences of basic outlook, any succeeding Government will probably
ID pursue policies not greatly unlike those of the present group.
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CHAPTER II
ECONOMIC SITUATION
In many respects Ireland is still an economic satellite of the United Kingdom. In
the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries its economic development was frustrated by
the deliberate application of mercantilist principles. Throughout the nineteenth cen-
tury the greater part of the land in Ireland was owned by English and Anglo-Irish
landlords. Only in the area around Belfast, in what is now Northern Ireland, did
extensive industrialization occur. During the past century the high degree of indus-
trialization in the United Kingdom provided a rich market for agricultural products and
a large supply of manufactured goods produced more cheaply than was possible in
Ireland. Also, British import restrictions have tended to hinder industrialization.
Consequently, the chief function of the Irish economy has continued to be the produc-
tion of food for the British market. Even the deliberate efforts of Irish governments
to foster domestic industry as a move toward national self-sufficiency have not mate-
rially altered this situation. Accordingly, Irish incomes are low. In 1946 the average
per capita income was only $390, about half the level in the United Kingdom.
1. POPULATION AND NATURAL RESOURCES.
The total population of the twenty-six counties at the time of the 1946 census was
2,953,452. A century ago it was twice this figure. Since the famines of the 1840's
there has been a constant stream of emigrants out of the country; net emigration in
the period 1936-1946 was 189,942. Ireland does not offer sufficient economic induce-
ment to absorb the natural increase; and the pull of higher wages in foreign countries,
especially in the United Kingdom, continue to draw off its most efficient labor. Emi-
gration is currently being studied by a commission of inquiry in the hope that a policy
of economic development may be found which will be effective in keeping Irishmen at
home. The establishment of more small industries is likely to be one of the commis-
sion's principal suggestions.
Ireland has only a meager endowment of natural resources. Minerals are insuf-
ficient even for its own needs. All petroleum products must be imported, and indigenous
production of solid fuels is less than 10 percent of requirements. Coal imports before
the war were over two million tons annually; about 1,500,000 tons were imported from
the United Kingdom in 1948. Peat, an inefficient fuel of limited industrial utility
though widely used in rural homes, is Ireland's most valuable mineral product. Some
minerals needed for building materials are available; but metals are not found in
significant quantities, and phosphate rock is not plentiful enough to meet Ireland's
needs for this type of fertilizer.
Hydroelectric power has been developed to some extent to make up for these fuel
deficiencies, and present plans call for extension of electric power lines over the entire
country within ten years. But at present large parts of rural Ireland are still without
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electricity; output in 1947 amounted to only 140 kilowatt hours per capita as compared
with 900 per capita in the United Kingdom.
The country is very sparsely forested, less than 2 percent of the total land area
being in timber. The sea fisheries are little exploited and presently employ only about
10,000 workers. By and large, Ireland depends on what its farmers can raise.
2. AGRICULTURE.
Ireland is primarily a peasant country. Some 70 percent of the country's 17 million
acres are devoted to agriculture; over half the population live on farms; and in 1947
agriculture provided 80 percent by value of total exports. Farms are small; most of
them are under 30 acres and a third are under ten. The Irish farmer is conservative and
unreceptive to new ideas and possessed of little mechanized equipment. Farm incomes
are even lower than the average for the country, and farmers lack the capital for
extensive improvements and effective fertilization.
Ireland is over 90 percent self-sufficient in food production, but must import wheat
for flour, animal feedstuffs, and fertilizers. Agriculture is mainly devoted to livestock
and livestock products. Hay and pasture land is over half the total land area of the
country and is more than three times the area in crops. Livestock and livestock
products account for over 70 percent by value of total agricultural output and 98 per-
cent of agricultural exports. Crop raising is still of secondary importance, although
it has tended for many years to provide an increasing share of the volume of agricultural
production and was encouraged during World War II.
Irish agriculture has not yet recovered from the effects of the war. Gross output
in 1947 was only 92 percent of the gross output by volume in 1938-39 and was 6 per-
cent less than the 1946 level.* Also, in 1947 only 20 percent of the total output was
exported as against 38 percent in 1938-39. The difficult import situation during
World War II necessitated an increase in crop acreage, particularly wheat, in order to
maintain food consumption at approximately prewar levels. But owing to the cur-
tailment of fertilizer imports and the general unsuitability of Irish agriculture for this
sort of production, the increase in crops was not commensurate with the increase in
tilled area; in fact, yield per acre of wheat declined over 40 percent between 1938 and
1946. Furthermore, part of the increase in planted area was at the expense of pasture
land. This, coupled with a drop in imports of animal feedstuffs, caused a decline in
livestock numbers and quality and a drop in agricultural exports.
LIVESTOCK POPULATION
Average
1936-40
June 1947
Cattle
4,021,000
3,930,000
Hogs
978,000
457,000
Chickens
15,961,000
14,537,300
Sheep
3,076,000
2,094,000
* Low production in 1947 was due largely to unfavorable weather conditions.
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AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS, AVERAGE 1934-38, 1947
Product
Unit
1934-38
1947
Live cattle
Number
664,000
484,000
Hog products
Metric tons
32,000
none
Poultry and game
Metric tons
7,600
6,300
Fresh eggs
Ten dozens
2,933,000
1,311,300
Butter
Metric tons
23,150
none
The decline is serious. The welfare of the Irish economy as presently constituted
depends upon its ability to provide livestock and livestock products, principally live
cattle, for export, obtaining in exchange imports of industrial products, fertilizers,
grains, and feeds. The restoration of Irish agriculture to its prewar level requires
approximately a 10 percent increase in volume of agricultural output and a shift in the
livestock-crop ratio toward an increase in livestock numbers. It is dependent prin-
cipally on the maintenance of wheat imports and on increased availability of fertilizers
and feeds.
Government policy, although it contemplates the minimum of controls over farm-
ers, is directed toward a return to approximately this prewar pattern. Its primary aim
is to stimulate cattle exports and the output of livestock products. Encouragement is
being given to production of potatoes, oats, and barley in order to increase supplies of
animal feedstuffs. A survey of grasslands has been undertaken in the hope that it
will lead to their improvement, a consequent increase in cattle numbers and quality,
and an upswing in production of meat and dairy products. Although wheat produc-
tion, stimulated by prices guaranteed in advance, will probably remain somewhat above
the prewar level, large-scale grain production, which has proven uneconomic, will not
be a permanent feature. Compulsory tillage has been abandoned although price
guarantees remain on certain crops.
Actually, the prewar level of production did not approach Ireland's agricultural
potential. But until the farmers are weaned away from the methods of peasant
agriculture, until considerable drainage is accomplished, a greater degree of mechaniza-
tion achieved, and internal transportation facilities improved, Ireland will not achieve
optimum agricultural output.
3. INDUSTRY AND LABOR.
Industry is of secondary importance in the Irish economy and is mainly directed
toward the manufacture of consumer goods, the leading industrial occupations being
food and drink processing, clothing manufacture, printing and publishing, and the
manufacture of construction materials. The heavy industries that characterize North-
ern Ireland are not found in the twenty-six counties. Principal industrial exports are
textiles, and brewed and distilled beverages. The greatest factory concentrations are
in the Dublin and Cork areas; but plants are found in towns throughout the southern
and eastern parts of the country. Most of them are small and many are inefficient
by American standards. There are several large factories assembling finished prod-
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ucts, such as automobiles, from imported parts. But in general, Irish industry is
based on Ireland's agricultural economy. No basic industries are likely to appear; and,
in general, the pattern of Irish industry will probably continue to be the production of
necessaries for domestic consumption and a few specialized products, such as whiskey
and tweeds, for shipment abroad.
During the war, the volume of factory production declined to about 80 percent of
the prewar level. The current volume of production, however, is over 125 percent of
prewar. Such food processing industries as bacon curing and butter production con-
tinue in a decline as a result of the low livestock level.
Industrialization is a recent growth in the twenty-six counties, and expansion of
industry has been a principal aim of government policy since 1932. Since then manu-
facturing industries have received government protection and direct financial assist-
ance. Some of them enjoy monopoly status through administration of the rule that
all new companies be licensed. Some, like the sugar refining industry, are really
nationalized; that is, they are managed by "semi-official" corporations controlled by
the State.
Domestic ownership of industries has been sought through such devices as a
requirement that new companies be over half Irish-owned. However, as there is little
Irish money seeking investment in productive enterprise in Ireland, it is likely that
restrictions will be relaxed somewhat in order to attract foreign capital. The fostering
of industrialization through such measures as protective tariffs will, however, probably
continue to be a leading feature of government policy.
Strikes and work stoppages following the end of the war and the decontrol of
wages led to passage of the Industrial Relations Act of 1946, which established a Labor
Court to assist in the settlement of disputes. Although the Court has not prevented
all strikes, it has kept them at a minimum. At present most industrial disputes are
being settled by the Labor Court under the terms of an agreement among the Congress
of Irish Unions, the Irish Trade Union Congress, and the leading employers organiza-
tion, wherein the unions agreed not to press for wage increases above a specified level.
4. FINANCE.
Irish governments and the Irish banks have followed conservative financial
policies. Domestic bank loans rose sharply after the war but have now apparently
leveled off on a plane not far out of line with the increase in prices since the prewar
period. Throughout 1948 the price level remained practically stable. Ireland carries
a remarkably small public debt and maintains a balanced budget. On 31 March 1948,
at the close of the 1947-48 fiscal year, the public debt was ?104.8 million against which
the State held assets of ?48.5 million. That the State's credit is high is attested
to by the rapid oversubscription of a recent ?12 million bond issue, the first since 1941.
Ireland is a member of the sterling area, and its banks have long-standing con-
nections with the British banking system. The Irish pound, although a separate cur-
rency unit, is exchangeable at par with the pound sterling; and the pound sterling is
freely accepted for transactions purposes in Ireland. British Government securities
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are the principal backing of the note issue and constitute a large proportion of com-
mercial bank assets. The Central Bank of Ireland is committed by statute to issue
legal tender notes against Bank of England notes and to redeem its notes with Bank
of England notes on demand. The statutory par peg to sterling is being increasingly
criticized in Ireland, many feeling that there should be a less cumbersome method of
manipulating the exchange rate. Ireland can be expected, however, to remain a
member of the sterling area. Trade and business connections with the United Kingdom
are so extensive that Ireland gains considerable advantage by the stable exchange
rate with the pound sterling, the ease of transferring currencies, and the sterling area
mechanism.
The Central Bank of Ireland exercises currency and banking control. However,
its control over the volume of money and credit is not extensive. Credit cannot be
restricted by raising the reserve requirements of the commercial banks or selling securi-
ties to tighten reserves. Since Irish Government debt has been very small, there are
practically no securities available for buying and selling. More important, banks in
Ireland are not required to maintain minimum cash ratios and are in a highly liquid
position. Their investments are largely in sterling and British Treasury bonds, which
can be turned into cash at any time. It follows from the same factors that the Central
Bank cannot effectively operate to expand money and credit.
The lack of tight control over the commercial banks has so far been fairly unim-
portant. Prices have been stable since early 1948 and there is no threat of strong
inflation which would call for credit restriction. As for expanding money and credit
under conditions of deflation, it is clear from the liquid position of the banks that tight
credit has not been and will not be a depressing influence. Rather the demand for
credit has in the past been at a low level, either for government or private account. The
note issue of the Central Bank could be increased in future, however, to cover any
government deficit financing.
5. FOREIGN TRADE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS.
Ireland's commercial and financial links with the United Kingdom have inevitably
involved it in Britain's balance-of-payment's difficulties at a time when its own economy,
though not directly damaged by the war, is still suffering from the effects of wartime
economic dislocations. Ireland is one of the sterling area countries, and the United
Kingdom is its principal trading partner. About 90 percent of its exports go to the
United Kingdom, and about half of its imports normally come from there. Live cattle
and other agricultural products are exchanged for coal and manufactured goods. The
United Kingdom is also the most important source of Ireland's invisible receipts; in
1947 over 90 percent of receipts in this category, chiefly emigrants' remittances and
tourists' expenditures, came from the United Kingdom. Trade with the United States
is very one-sided; imports from the United States account for about 8 percent by value
of total imports while exports to the United States are less than 1 percent of all exports.
Ireland normally has an adverse trade balance, but in prewar years its invisible
receipts permitted it to maintain an approximate balance on current international
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account. The necessary foreign currency was obtained by converting sterling. Fol-
lowing the war, however, the adverse trade balance became so large that invisible
receipts could no longer bridge the gap; and the inconvertibility of sterling limited the
extent to which past accumulations of sterling could be drawn on to pay for hard
currency purchases.
IRISH TRADE (IN ? 000,000)
(The volume figures are index numbers representing quantities of trade valued at
1930 prices)
Excess
Imports Exports Total Trade of Imports
Year Value Volume Value Volume Value Volume Value
1938
?41.4
46.2
?24.2
28.0
?65.7
74.2
?17.2
1944
28.5
14.4
29.9
16.1
58.4
30.5
1946
71.8
36.5
38.8
20.3
110.6
56.8
33.1
1947
130.8
60.4
38.8
19.2
169.6
79.6
92.0
* Export Surplus.
In 1938 the adverse trade balance of ?17 million was covered by a favorable bal-
ance on invisible items of about ?23 million. During the war the value of imports
dropped sharply, exports less so, and receipts from invisible items increased greatly
owing principally to a fourfold increase in emigrants' remittances. Consequently, Ire-
land maintained an exceedingly favorable balance of payments during the war period.
Irish-held sterling balances in London increased from about ?250 million before the
war to over ?400 million at its end. Indicating the trend in the sterling balances, the
net external assets of the Irish banks, which in 1938 stood at ?61.4 million, had reached
?160.1 million by the end of 1946.
Adverse trade balances returned with the end of the war. In 1947, when the trade
deficit reached the unprecedented level of ?92 million, the favorable balance on invisibles
was only ?62 million. The balance-of-payments deficit of ?30 million had to be made
good from external capital. By June 1948 the external assets of the Irish banks had
dropped to ?129 million. Ireland, in other words, is currently living on capital, draw-
ing on the savings of the past. The improved trade position in the latter half of 1948
and the extension of an ECA loan have, however, recently sharply reduced the depletion
of the sterling balances.
As indicated below, Ireland's dollar deficit in 1947 was larger than its total
balance-of-payments deficit computed in sterling. Most of the few dollars that Ire-
land receives directly come from Irish emigrants in the United States or from American
tourists. Ireland has always had a dollar deficit, and in the past practically all of it
has represented a drain on the dollar resources of the Sterling area. At present all of
Ireland's dollar purchases are being financed out of an ECA loan. Because they could
foresee no possibility of earning enough dollars to repay it, the Irish were reluctant to
accept an ECA loan. They were hoping that they would be able to obtain at least some
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NET RECEIPTS ON CURRENT ACCOUNT IN 1947
(In ? Million)
Deficit (?) ; Surplus (+)
Sterling
Area
(Mainly
UK)
Countries
Participating
in ERP
( except UK)
USA, Canada
and other
Western
Hemisphere
Countries
Other
Countries
Total
AU
Countries
Merchandise
trade
?31.7
?14.0
?40.6
?5.3
?91.6
Emigrants'
remittances
+6.2
+3.2
+9.4
Net receipts?
tourism
+26.2
+1.8
+28.0
Income from
capital
+7.9
+0.2
+8.1
Other
+16.0
+0.3
+0.1
+16.4
Deficit or
surplus of
current
transactions
+24.6
?13.7
?35.3
?29.7
ECA dollars as an outright grant. But the initial United States decision?unchanged
to date?was that aid to Ireland was to be on a loan basis only, and the continued
conversion of Irish-held sterling into dollars was contrary to the British policy of
maintaining sterling area reserves. Consequently, the Irish Government signed a loan
agreement establishing a first credit of $60 million.
The tremendous adverse trade balance in 1947 was attributable principally to a
heavy increase in imports; the volume of imports in 1947 was 65 percent greater than
in 1946. The situation caused great concern because these imports represented for
the most part raw materials and consumer goods rather than capital equipment which
could be used to increase the level of internal investment. However, a principal factor
in the postwar import boom was restocking; and part of the 1947 balance-of-payments
deficit, and a very significant part of the dollar deficit, was attributable to the drop
in United Kingdom coal exports necessitating recourse to higher priced United States
coal. Fortunately, that situation no longer obtains. The trade picture is now show-
ing some improvement. Since June 1948 monthly trade deficits have been decreasing,
reflecting a decrease in imports and a slight increase in exports. Although the 1948
adverse trade balance was nearly as high as in 1947, the encouraging figures in the
latter half of 1948 indicate that 1949 will show a definite improvement and suggest that
the Irish will within the next few years again be able to approach a balance in their
international payments. The Government is attempting to stimulate trade with West-
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em Europe; trade agreements have been concluded with the United Kingdom, Spain,
France, and the Netherlands; and already there has been a considerable shift in imports
from the dollar to the sterling and other soft currency. areas. However, even if Ireland's
payments do eventually reach an over-all balance, the Irish will continue to face a seri-
ous dollar problem?which now includes the problem of repaying the ECA loan?as long
as sterling remains inconvertible.
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CHAPTER III
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
1. IRISH FOREIGN POLICY.
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Since 1924, when the Irish Free State appointed a Minister to Washington and
thus became the first dominion to break the diplomatic unity of the British Common-
wealth, the independence of Irish foreign policy has been marked. The determinants
of Irish foreign policy are its geographic and economic ties to Great Britain, a desire to
emphasize independence of the United Kingdom, close cultural links with the Catholic
countries of Western Europe, sincere friendship for the United States, and special
sensitivity to Vatican opinion. Friendship for the United States stems from the assist-
ance given by Americans to the Irish independence movement and from the vast num-
bers of people of Irish descent in the United States. Irish Governments have always
counted, perhaps too optimistically, on Irish-American pressure to produce benevolent
United States attitudes toward Ireland. The special affinity to Western Europe, espe-
cially Spain, Italy, and France, is a natural result of the ties of geography, religion, and
culture binding Ireland to these countries.
Although anti-Axis in sympathies, Ireland was neutral in World War II?primarily,
of course, because it was never attacked. Partition was also an extremely important
factor, the Irish Government fearing, with much justification, that an alliance with
Britain would result in civil disorder. Furthermore, always somewhat distrustful of
Great Powers' motives and possessed of a small country's normal reluctance to become
involved in their conflicts, the Irish were never convinced that moral considerations
played a great part in Allied war aims. Although these factors are still present in
greater or less degree, the Irish attitude toward a war between the USSR and the West
would for obvious reasons be different. The attitude of the Church has great influence
in Ireland, and the Irish would be deeply stirred on religious grounds by an East-West
war and in all probability would not remain neutral.
? Partition, however, still influences Irish thinking about the North Atlantic Pact.
Like its predecessor, ever conscious of the views of the Nationalists in Northern Ireland
and inclined to seize all opportunities to bring about Irish unity, the Costello Govern-
ment has indicated that it will not participate in a military alliance with the United
Kingdom while Partition continues. Whether anything short of war would alter this
attitude cannot be confidently estimated.
The Irish are nonetheless extremely anxious to make their influence felt in world
affairs. Their able representation and forward-looking policies in the League of
Nations gained them the respect of other nations and increased their own confidence
and ability in conducting foreign relations. Blackballed from the UN by a Russian
veto, the Irish have been enthusiastic supporters of ERP and attach great importance
to their participation in OEEC. They have indicated enthusiasm for the proposed
Council of Europe.
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2. RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE COMMONWEALTH.
Technically a Dominion under the terms of the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921,* Ire-
land was never psychologically a dominion. Unlike, for example, the Canadians or
Australians, the Irish cherished no strong ties of blood and affection for the United
Kingdom. Rather they had a tradition of struggle against the British. Ever con-
scious of its separate nationality, Ireland is itself a mother country whose people have
settled in all parts of the world. Even under the Cosgrave Government, which ac-
cepted the concept of membership in the Commonwealth, Irish policy was essentially
nationalistic and was directed toward a broadening of the implications of dominion
status and a lessening of the degree of United Kingdom control and influence over the
other Commonwealth countries. The Irish Free State had a considerable influence
in the constitutional development of the Commonwealth during this period. After
De Valera assumed office in 1932, Irish policy became one of increasing dissociation
from the Commonwealth. By 1936 nearly all the manifestations of membership in
the Commonwealth?as, for example, the office of Governor-General?had been dis-
carded. The Constitution of 1937, an essentially republican document although not
expressly proclaiming a republic, mentioned neither Crown nor Commonwealth and
affirmed that Ireland was a sovereign, independent, democratic state with an inalien-
able right to choose its own form of government.
"External association" with the Commonwealth became the de facto position. As
its neutrality in World War II emphasized, Ireland regarded itself not as a member of
the Commonwealth but as a State associated with it for certain aspects of external
relations. The last legal link to the Crown was the External Relations Act of 1936
under which Irish diplomatic representatives were appointed in the name of the King.
That last link was cut in December 1948 by the passage of the Republic of Ireland
Act. After the Act goes into effect on 18 April 1949, external affairs will be conducted
in the name of the President of Ireland; and Ireland will be described as the Republic
of Ireland. Existing trade preferences and citizenship rights with the United Kingdom
and the dominions will be retained. Representation with the United Kingdom, Canada,
and Australia will probably be moved from the High Commissioner to the ministerial
or ambassadorial level. Fears that the completion of the process of withdrawal from the
Commonwealth would make Northern Ireland more aloof than ever were overcome
by the feeling that the existing situation was anomalous, degrading, and artificial.
Whether any Irish Government would renew formal association with the Common-
wealth as a condition for ending Partition is uncertain. Certainly the Irish would not
be enthusiastic to re-enter the Commonwealth. The Republic of Ireland Act does not
however, reflect a recrudescence of angry Anglophobia. Bitter memories of injustice
are dying out, and relations with the United Kingdom are being conducted in an
atmosphere of friendship; but so long as Partition remains, the seeds of Anglo-Irish
dispute are present.
* The Treaty provided that the Irish Free State was to have "the same constitutional status
in the Community of Nations known as the British Empire, as the Dominion of Canada, etc."
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? CHAPTER IV
MILITARY SITUATION
Ireland is incapable of offering effective resistance to an invading enemy without
immediate and substantial assistance. Government military policy contemplates a
small, highly trained, regular army and the maximum possible number of reserves.
The armed forces are dependent on the United Kingdom for equipment and higher
echelon training; British tactical doctrine is relied upon. For defense against inva-
sion the Irish military rely heavily on the concept of "spider-web" defense under which
small groups of forces would be spotted throughout the country at road junctions,
defiles, bridges, and other vital points with the idea of carrying on organized guerrilla
warfare which could be a serious problem for an occupying enemy.
The present strength of the army is about 8,000; reserve forces number about
50,000. Equipment consists of light infantry weapons and light artillery of World
War II design or earlier. Stores of arms are insufficient to equip adequately the
reserves that would be called up in an emergency. The air force has 58 planes, 11 of
them attached to a fighter tactical unit; air force personnel number about 400. The
naval service has 428 men; three corvettes recently obtained from the British serve as
coastal patrol vessels.
? There are about 750,000 men of military age, 15 to 49, about 600,000 of whom
would be considered physically fit for some form of military service. It is believed, how-
ever, that total effective strength could not be raised above 300,000 and that it would
take eighteen months to reach this level. 210,000 males had some military training
in World War II. This includes 60,000 men who passed through the regular defense
forces, 100,000 who served in home guard type units, and an estimated 50,000 who
served in some branch of the British armed services.
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CHAPTER V
STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS AFFECTING UNITED STATES SECURITY
Ireland is potentially a valuable ally because of its strategic location athwart the
chief seaways and airways to and from Western Europe. Its terrain and topography
lend themselves to rapid construction of airfields which would be invaluable as bases
for strategic bomber attacks as far east as the Ural Mountains. Defense of such bases
from air attack by European-based planes would be greatly facilitated by the need for
such planes to cross the anti-aircraft defenses of Great Britain. Naval and naval air
bases in Ireland would extend the range and effectiveness of anti-submarine and con-
voy protection operations in the southwestern approaches to the United Kingdom and
in the Eastern Atlantic generally. Availability of such bases would therefore be of
greatest value in the conduct of United States naval operations.
Although Ireland's most important wartime contribution would be the use of its
territory, its potential manpower contribution is not inconsiderable. Lacking heavy
industry, Ireland would have little to offer economically beyond its usual agricultural
output.
The military inconvenience of Irish neutrality was amply demonstrated in World
War II. Irish neutrality would probably again be tolerable under conditions of global
warfare. However, and assuming these conditions, because hostile forces in Ireland
would outflank the main defenses of Great Britain, and because it could be used as a
base for bombing North America, the denial of Ireland to an enemy is an unavoidable
principle of United States security.
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? CHAPTER VI
?
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PROBABLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING UNITED STATES SECURITY
Ireland has always been friendly to the United States and is certain to remain so
regardless of internal political changes.
As noted in Chapter III, Foreign Affairs, Ireland is not likely to remain neutral
in a war between the USSR and the West. Since Partition is not likely to be ended,
however, bases in Northern Ireland would undoubtedly still be available even if Ireland
were neutral. The end of Partition is conceivable only in connection with Ireland's
adhering to an alliance such as the suggested North Atlantic Pact, in which case bases
would presumably be available under the terms of the alliance.
No significant changes in economic or manpower potentials are likely to occur.
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? APPENDIX A
?
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TOPOGRAPHY AND CLIMATE
The island of Ireland lies west of Great Britain in latitudes 51-26 N to 55-21 N and
from longitude 5-26 W to 10-26 W. Total area is 31,800 square miles, 5,200 in Northern
Ireland and 26,600 in the Republic. The island measures 260 miles between its north-
eastern and southwestern extremities and 185 miles between the southeastern corner
and the northwestern tip of County Mayo. The North Channel separates Ireland's
northeastern coast from Scotland by distances varying from 10 to 30 miles; from the
southeastern corner to Wales it is about 45 miles across the Irish Sea; Dublin lies 121
miles west of Liverpool across the Irish Sea. The shortest regular routes of crossing
are from Rosslare in County Wexford to Fishguard in Wales, 54 miles, and from Dublin
to Holyhead, 57 miles. Historically, Ireland was divided into four provinces and
thirty-two counties; today, the provinces?Ulster, Leinster, Munster, and Connacht?
have no administrative or political significance but are convenient terms for reference
purposes.
There is a low central plain, seldom rising more than 300 feet above sea level,
dotted and ringed for the most part by high, sometimes mountainous, land near the
coast. The central plain, twice as long from east to west as from north to south, reaches
the east coast between Dublin and Dundalk, the traditional invasion gateway, and
extends westward to the highlands of Connacht, breaking through to the sea at Galway
Bay and Clew Bay on the western coast. The central plain east of the River Shannon
is an area of limestone, boulder clay and rich soil. It is dotted with peat bogs and
shallow lakes. One-eighth of the land area of Ireland is peat bog and even a good part
of the non-boggy land is usually damp and soft. Most of the utilized area of the
central plain is given over to agriculture and pasturage.
The largest and highest mountain ranges are in the South and Southwest; these
ranges trend east-west. The highest mountain, Carrantual in the Macgillycuddy Reeks
in County Kerry, is 3,414 feet high. In this area the mountains are high and contigu-
ous; elsewhere, they are knots, or short hills, separated by broad valleys or broader
stretches of plain. These southwestern hills are usually barren, boggy, or craggy
moorland, often shrouded in mist and drenched by severe squalls. They shelter the
rich agricultural valleys of County Cork. From the River Shannon eastward to the
coast, south of the central plain, is a low rolling upland interspersed with hills; this
is a region of good pastures, cultivated farms, excellent roads, numerous villages and
towns, and a fairly dense population. In the Southeast are the treeless mountains of
Leinster rising steeply to the south of Dublin and stretching to Waterford harbor.
They overlook a low coastal plain at the southeastern tip of the island.
North of the central plain, the hills of eastern Ulster enclose a plateau in which
lies Lough Neagh, the largest body of water in Ireland. West of Lough Neagh are the
highlands of Counties Tyrone and Donegal, whose northeast-southwest hills are sepa-
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rated and cut across by valleys and lakes. From Lough Foyle in Donegal to Galway
Bay is a continuous mountain region. Lying west of the Shannon, this area is either
poorly drained bog or too well drained, bare, and rocky surface. The highlands of
western Connacht are rough, poor and forbidding.
The main drainage partings of the island are not mountain ranges but low,
broad, almost imperceptible ridges, usually not over 500 feet in altitude. Consequently,
the headwaters of streams flowing in opposite directions often intermingle, allowing
for the easy construction of canals. A series of canals connects Ulster with the central
plain and Dublin with the Shannon and with Waterford. The principal river is the
Shannon. In its nature it is more a chain of lakes with tributary streams than a
river. Above Limerick City there are rapids, the river falling 100 feet in less than 20
miles; this is the site of important hydroelectric developments. Throughout its course,
the Shannon is crossed only at rare fords and causeways, natural and artificial.
The northern and western coasts are very irregular with deep indentations and
numerous offshore islands. The eastern coast, however, is fairly regular, being only
slightly indented at Wexford Bay, Dublin Bay, and Dundalk. The southern coast is
less regular than the eastern and is more irregular west of Cobh than east of it. The
variation in rise and fall of the tides is generally less on the eastern coast than else-
where. Wexford Harbor, for example, has a tidal range of but 3.3 feet at neap tides
and 5.1 feet at spring tides; Limerick, on the other hand, in the West, has a variation of
14 feet at neap tides and 18 feet at spring tides.
Ireland's climate is governed by its girdle of high land and its insular position in the
path of southwesterly winds. The climate is mild and damp; grass grows all the year.
The relative humidity is generally above 80%; it rains 200 days in a year. The west
and the highland areas generally receive more rain than the rest of the island. In
general, rainfall is evenly distributed throughout the year with somewhat greater pre-
cipitation in the winter in the Southwest and in the late summer and fall in the central
and eastern sections. The mountains of Kerry and Galway receive very heavy annual
rainfall. Most of the highland areas around the coast receive over 40 inches while
rainfall on the central plain varies between 30 inches and 40 inches.
? Temperatures vary between 40 and 60 degrees; extremes of 16 degrees (in Janu-
ary) and 90 degrees (in July) have been recorded, but these are rare. Winds, averaging
from 10 to 15 miles per hour, are almost universal at all times. Winds from the
west prevail.
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APPENDIX B
SIGNIFICANT PERSONALITIES
DE VALERA, EAMON (Age 66)
Leader of the Fianna Fail Party.
Scholar, revolutionary, and politician, De Valera in his time has so captured the
imagination and so truly reflected the national aspirations of the Irish people that
he must rank with O'Connell and Parnell as a national leader. He is still the most
popular?and the most controversial?man in Ireland. He might at any time become
Prime Minister again.
Born in New York City, son of a Spanish father and an Irish mother, he grew up
in Ireland. As a young teacher of mathematics he became interested in the language
revival movement and became a passionate nationalist. Although not one of the
principal instigators of the Easter Rebellion of 1916, he won fame as the commander
of the last insurgent fort to surrender. He was sentenced to death, but his sentence
was later commuted to life imprisonment, and he was eventually released in the general
amnesty of 1917. He returned to Ireland from an English prison to find himself a
popular hero. He became one of the leaders of the republican movement, was again
imprisoned in 1918, made a dramatic escape, and acted as head of the revolutionary
government during the Anglo-Irish War. He refused to accept the Treaty and led
the anti-Treaty forces in the Civil War. Once he was imprisoned by the Cosgrave
Government. As leader of the Fianna Fail Party, which he had founded, he became
head of the government in 1932. He remained Prime Minister until February 1948;
since then he has been leader of the Opposition.
Although he has much personal charm, he is by nature reserved and contemplative.
His glamour stems from his career rather than his personality. He has a reputation
for political astuteness and during his sixteen years in office demonstrated a remarkable
talent for assessing and moulding public opinion. His personal integrity is unimpeach-
able. He is intensely loyal to his followers; many Fianna Fail ministers were men
who qualified less by administrative ability than by long-standing devotion to "Dev."
The principal aim of his life has been the establishment of an economically and po-
litically independent, Gaelic-speaking republic. Many of his important decisions have
been extremely controversial and many have appeared to be compromises, but he has
never admitted either error or compromise with principle. He is friendly to the United
States but opposed to Ireland's joining a defense pact while Partition continues. But
in the event of war, he is not likely to insist on neutrality if the conflict comes to be
regarded as a "Holy War."
COSTELLO, JOHN A. (Age 58)
Prime Minister, Member of Fine Gael.
Costello's selection as the coalition's Prime Minister in February 1948 was a surprise.
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Although a leading member of Fine Gael and a Dail deputy since 1933 (except for a
brief interval in 1943-44), he was not the leader of the party. His selection was prob-
ably attributable to the fact that he is little involved in the personal bitternesses that
still persist as an aftermath of the Treaty era. Although he took no part in the Civil
War, he served as Attorney-General under the Cosgrave Government from 1925 to
1932 and was regarded as an expert on the Irish Free State's constitutional relations
with the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth.
Costello is one of the ablest and wealthiest barristers in Ireland, and his acceptance
of office entailed a considerable financial sacrifice. Himself a conservative, he is a
skillful administrator and politician and cooperates well with the Labor parties and
Clann na Poblachta. His diplomatic personality gets much of the credit for the fact
that the various elements of the "inter-party Government" have held together so well
for so long. He had been regarded as a supporter of relatively close ties with the United
Kingdom and the Commonwealth, but he sponsored the Republic of Ireland Bill as a
means of regularizing Ireland's international status and removing the causes of in-
ternal discord. In common with nearly every other Irish political leader he favored
neutrality in World War II.
MACBRIDE, SEAN (Age 45)
Minister for External Affairs. Leader of Clann na Poblachta.
The outstanding personality of the present Government, MacBride has an impec-
cable revolutionary pedigree. His father was one of the executed heroes of 1916; his
mother is Maud Gonne MacBride, a fabulous beauty and a fiery republican in her day,
the inspiration of W. B. Yeats. MacBride received a large part of his early education
in France and still maintains many contacts on the Continent. He fought in the
Anglo-Irish War and with the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in the Civil War. He
remained in the IRA for many years after the present leaders of Fianna Fail had broken
with it. It is not clear when he left the organization, nor is it certain that he has,
although it is supposed he did so about 1939 when the IRA instituted its campaign
of terrorism against England.
Like Costello, a brilliant and successful barrister, he is noted for his forceful ad-
vocacy and remarkable talent for cross-examination. He is probably the best debater
in the Dail. He is definitely of Prime Ministerial caliber. He is charming, affable, and
intelligent, an excellent diplomat. He has shown a great interest in the Organization
for European Economic Cooperation and in international cooperation generally and
believes that Ireland would not remain neutral in event of war. He considers it po-
litically impossible for Ireland to join a military alliance while Partition continues.
DILLON, JAMES MATTHEW (Age 47)
Minister for Agriculture. Independent.
Son of one of the principal figures in the pre-World War I Irish Parliamentary
Party at Westminster, James Di11ion has been active in politics himself since 1932.
During World War II he was the only politician in Ireland to advocate abandonment
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of strict neutrality and active cooperation with the United States and Great Britain.
He resigned from the Fine Gael Party, of which he was a Vice-President, because of his
stand on this issue. Prior to the 1948 election, however, he attempted unsuccessfully
to negotiate a fusion of Fine Gael with Clann na Talhman, and evinced a desire once
again to become a political regular. But he is still an independent. It is possible
that he is thinking in terms of a new center party.
A bitter enemy of De Valera and Fianna Fail, he and the Government's agricultural
policy are the favorite targets of Opposition attack.
he is a capable Minister
for Agriculture. With his brilliant wit and great talent for invective and bombast he
is one of the most colorful and effective orators in the Dail.
Like Costello, he is a conservative and a former supporter of the Commonwealth
who favored the Republic of Ireland Act. He is pro-American and sees in the existence
of Partition a situation exploitable by Communists. Although he has recently declared
that he would like to see a close economic union of English-speaking countries, to be
expanded later to include others, he also probably regards Partition as sufficient justifi-
cation for Ireland's abstaining from defensive alliances involving the United Kingdom.
LEMASS, SEAN (Age 50)
Member of Fianna Fail.
Lemass fought in the Easter Rising, in the Anglo-Irish War, and in the Civil War.
He was one of the founders of Fianna Fail and has been elected to the Dail continuously
since 1924. He was the economic brain of the De Valera Government and, as Deputy
Prime Minister and Minister for Industry and Commerce, was De Valera's most respected
and capable lieutenant.
He is the type of politician who remembers well both his friends and his enemies.
Personally, he is something of a bon vivant. He is a managing director of the Irish
Press, the Fianna Fail newspaper. Next to De Valera he is probably the most popular
Fianna Fail leader and is generally regarded as De Valera's successor-designate. How-
ever, he has not been particularly effective as an Opposition spokesman in the Dail;
and it is possible that his place in the party hierarchy is being usurped by Frank
Aiken.
AIKEN, FRANK (Age 51)
STAT
STAT
Member of Fianna Fail.
Born in Ulster, Aiken was one of the bravest and most renowned leaders of the
Irish Republican Army during the Anglo-Irish War and the Civil War. He is devoted
to De Valera and accompanied him on his 1948 anti-Partition speaking tours abroad.
He was Minister for Defense and later Minister for Finance under De Valera; during
World War II he administered, quite ruthlessly, the censorship regulations designed to
prevent a compromise of Ireland's neutrality. He is by some reports extremely anti-
British and anti-American. Pleasant in manner, he is a shrewd politician and a clever
and effective speaker, STAT
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He is generally ranked below Lemass and would probably make a poor Prime
Minister, but he is strong enough with ex-members of the Irish Republican Army to be
considered as a possible successor to De Valera.
Other Important figures include:
MULCAHY, RICHARD
Minister for Education. President of Fine Gael.
Despite his position in Fine Gael and his general competence, he has had little
apparent influence in the "inter-party Government," probably because of the unaccept-
ability of his "national record" to the republican elements in Clann na Poblachta: IRA
Chief of Staff in the Anglo-Irish War, he later became the leader of the Free State
forces in the Civil War.
MORTON, WILLIAM
Tanaiste, or Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Social Welfare, and leader of
the Labor Party. A trade union official turned politician, he is a right-wing Socialist
whose primary interest is in advancing the Labor Party's program.
MCGILLIGAN, PATRICK
Minister of Finance and member of Fine Gael. A prominent barrister and Pro-
fessor of Law, he held several important posts under Cosgrave. He is an especially
able Minister and exponent of Government policy.
O'HIGGINS, T. F.
Minister for Defense and member of Fine Gael. His father and his brother were
both assassinated by republican extremists. He is politically conservative and a bitter
opponent of Fianna Fail.
MACENTEE, SEAN
Member of Fianna Fail and ex-Minister for Local Government.
Valera, Lemass, and Aiken the leadership of Fianna Fail,
Sharing with De
COSGRAVE, LIAM
Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister and member of Fine Gael. He
is a younger man who might well be an important leader in the future. He is the son
of William T. Cosgrave.
CHILDERS, ERSKINE
Member of Fianna Fail, formerly Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for
Local Government. Another potentially important younger leader, he is a devoted
follower and confident of De Valera. His father was executed by the Cosgrave Govern-
ment.
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? APPENDIX C
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TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS FACILITIES
Dublin, together with Dun Laoghaire (Kingstown), is the principal port, handling
about 60 percent of the country's seaborne traffic. Over two-thirds of its incoming
tonnage is from British or other Irish ports. It has adequate storage, loading, and
repair facilities. Next in importance are Cork and Cobh (Queenstown), the principal
ports of call on the trans-Atlantic route, where the passenger facilities at least are
not entirely satisfactory. Waterford and Limerick rank after Cobh in importance.
Ireland has recently entered the trans-Atlantic passenger and cargo field on a small
scale; at present two ships are in operation, three more are planned.
Air transport is in the hands of a government corporation, Aer Rianta. The oper-
ating company, Aer Lingus, 60 percent owned by Aer Rianta and 40 percent by British
Overseas Airways Corporation (BOAC), presently operates on routes between Dublin
and Shannon, and to points in the United Kingdom, France, and the Netherlands.
Another company, wholly owned by Aer Rianta, had been organized to fly the trans-
Atlantic route; but these plans have been dropped. Aer Lingus has been operating at
a loss for some time; 50 percent of its losses, however, are absorbed by BOAC. Present
equipment policy is to standardize on the DC-3, of which Aer Lingus now has an opera-
tional fleet of thirteen. There are two commercial fields: Dublin (Collinstown) and
Shannon, which is a customs-free international airport; services at the seaplane base
at Foynes were terminated early in 1948. Irish aviation policy contemplates the con-
tinued use of Shannon as the country's international airport; all planes stopping in
Ireland on trans-Atlantic flights are required to land at Shannon. This is unsatis-
factory to foreign carriers, which would prefer to stop only at Dublin, if at all.
There are about 2,500 miles of railway track in the twenty-six counties, all but a
few hundred miles being 5'3" gauge.* Practically all lines are single track although
double track lines connect Dublin with Cork and with Belfast in Northern Ireland.
Of the approximately 500 locomotives presently in service most are steam driven but
it is planned that these will eventually be replaced by Diesel electrics. In general,
equipment is old, but in fairly good repair.
Except in the remote western seaboard areas the country is well traversed by roads
and highways. About 70 percent of the road mileage is surfaced at least with un-
rolled macadam. Concrete and asphalt roads are found only in the vicinity of large
towns. In the main, roads are good, with well-laid roadbeds, although narrow and
winding.
There are about 650 miles of inland waterways. The most important is the
Grand Canal, 208 miles long, connecting Dublin with the interior.
* Standard gauge in use in the United Kingdom is 4'8.5".
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Railways, bus lines, and the Dublin streetcar services are under the control of
Coras Iompair Eireann (CIE), a corporation set up in 1944 under government auspices.
Private stockholders retain ownership, but the Government-appointed member of the
CIE board holds actual control. Under the CIE service is still unsatisfactory, costs
have not been reduced, and the company has lost money. The report of a recent special
investigation into the transport services recommended, among other things, broaden-
ing the responsibility of the board as a whole and an investment of over ?10 million
in capital equipment. The government has indicated that the transport services will
shortly be nationalized.
In general, Ireland's internal transportation system is capable of meeting present
needs; but considerable reorganization, coordination, and investment is necessary if
it is to support a much increased level of economic activity.
Ireland has lagged behind other northern European countries in internal com-
munications facilities. There are about 60,000 telephones in use and 171,000 miles of
working wire. There are 20,000 miles of single telegraph wire.
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APPENDIX D
POPULATION
The population enumerated in the census of 1946 was 2,953,452 compared with
2,968,420 in 1936, representing a decrease of 14,968 or 9.5 percent. The number of
males was 1,494,384 compared with 1,520,454 in 1936, a decrease of 26,070 or 1.7 percent.
The number of females was 1,459,068 as compared with 1,447,966, an increase of 11,102
or 0.8 percent. During the period births exceeded deaths by 174,974, but net emigra-
tion (passengers outward less passengers inward) was 189,942, an average annual
net emigration of 18,994.
?
COUNTY
Population of each County, 1936 and 1946
POPULATION COUNTY
POPULATION
Provinces:
Leinster
Munster
Connacht
Ulster (part of)
Leinster
Carlow
Dublin County
(Borough)
Dublin County
Kildare
Kilkenny
Leix
Longford
Louth
Meath
Offaly
Westmeath
Wexford
Wicklow
1936
1,220,411
942,272
525,468
280,269
34,452
472,958
113,967
57,892
68,614
50,109
37,847
64,339
61,405
51,308
54,706
94,245
58,569
1946
1,280,219
916,750
492,816
263,667
34,048
506,635
129,241
64,834
66,683
49,634
36,221
66,135
66,220
53,644
54,880
91,704
60,340
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Munster
Clare
Cork County
(Borough)
Cork County
Kerry
Limerick Co.
(Borough)
Tipperary
Waterford Co.
(Borough)
Waterford Co.
Connacht
Galway
Leitrim
Mayo
Roscommon
Sligo
Ulster (part of)
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
1936
89,879
80,765
275,192
139,834
41,061
137,835
27,968
49,646
168,198
50,908
161,349
77,566
67,447
76,670
142,310
61,289
1946
85,071
75,361
267,882
133,818
42,987
135,981
28,332
47,825
165,196
44,578
148,200
72,511
62,331
70,323
136,136
57,208
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The latest figures for religious professions in the twenty-six counties come from
the 1936 census, but the proportions would not have changed significantly since then:
Catholics
2,773,920
Protestant Episcopalians (Church of Ireland or
Anglican)
145,030
Presbyterians
28,067
Methodists
9,649
Other professions
11,754
2,968,420
The population of Northern Ireland, according to the census of 1937, the latest
available, was as follows:
COUNTY
POPULATION
Antrim
197,266
Armagh
108,815
Belfast County Borough
438,086
Down
210,687
Fermanagh
54,569
Londonderry County
94,923
Londonderry County Borough
47,813
Tyrone
127,586
1,279,745
Religious professions at the time?and the proportions would not have changed
*significantly since then?were:
Catholics
428,290
Presbyterians
390,931
Church of Ireland (Anglican or Protestant
Episcopalian)
345,474
Methodists
55,135
Other professions
59,915
1,279,745
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