WEEKLY SUMMARY #14

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A002000140001-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 20, 1948
• Content Type: REPORT

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Copy No. 58
I WEEKLY SUMMARY
1
Number 14
AtIP 19411
Document No.
sool
NO CHANGE in Class. cy
X DECLASSIFIED
Class. CHANGED TO: TS S
DDA Nemo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA REG. 77/1763
Date: By: 0t-i
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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1. This publication contains current intelligence exclusively
and therefore has not been coordinated with the intelli-
gence organizations of the departments of State, Army,
Navy, and Air Force.
2. This copy may be either retained, or destroyed by burning
in accordance with applicable security regulations, or
returned to the Central Intelligence Agency.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the na-
tional defense of the United States within the meaning
of the Espionage Act, 50 U.S.C., 31 and 32, as amended.
Its transmission or the revelation of its contents in any
manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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.-8112=49.
CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS
WESTERN EUROPE
2
EASTERN EUROPE
4
NEAR/EAST - AFRICA
8
FAR EAST
WESTERN HEMISPHERE
9
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HIGHLIG H TS
While the world awaited the outcome of the Moscow
talks, the USSR during the past week intensified its pressure
on Berlin and rode roughshod over western opposition to
dictate the terms upon which the Danube Conference was con-
cluded. By repudiating existing Danubian financial obligations
and conventions and by disregarding the interests of non-ri-
parian states, the USSR has aroused new antagonism in the
west and probably further embarrassed Communist minorities,
particularly in Austria, Italy, France and Germany. In the
Soviet view, however, such consequences are far overshadowed
by the compelling necessity to bar the west from the Soviet
orbit and to convince all eastern Europeans that it would be
fruitless to look to the west for escape from Kremlin control.
Other noteworthy trends and developments this week
Include: the increasing probability that the Italian colonial
issue will be referred to the UN (see page 2); an anticipated
Increase in labor unrest in western Germany (see page 2);
Yugoslavia's apparent acceptance of an indefinite stalemate
between Tito and the Kremlin (see page 4); continuing Jewish
Intransigence and the threat of renewed hostilities in Palestine
(see page 6); a slight easing of the immediate threat to the
Burmese Government (see page 7); and indications that
Nicaraguan air power will prove decisive in suppressing
conspiratorial activity and containing guerrilla activity in
Central America (see page 9).
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*Rd:
eo*
256
30'
356.
404
45.
so?
56'
25*
NORTHEAST
AFRICA
SELECTED RAILROAD
WI OIL PROSPECTING AREA
0 200 400 400
STATUTE MILES
35* 40. 45*
- MIESENTA/1010 V. Oh
SECRET
00040 -0
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WESTERN EUROPE
71`lie tki_sitton of Itel's former African dependeicis
is being discussed at meetings of the Foreign Ministers Deputies.
Although four-power agreement has been reached on Italian
trusteeship of Somaliland, the UK is insisting that any such solu-
tion include provision for Italian payment of at least part of Brit-
lett occupation costs The situation is further complicated by
the fact that the UV., strongly opposed to the USSR's propol9.!
th return Eritrea to Daly, maintains that any solution on Scran.11-
land should be contingent upon a settlement for Eritrea. Unani-
mous Pgreement on Eritrea and Libya seems unlikely because
of the disparity in the views of the four powers; causequent11-
the problem will be referred to the UM
UNITED YINGDOM
RAF rations inBerIizirU1 are costing the UK
Government approximately 1.60,000 weekly, and RAF training
is almost at a standstill, Although the British believe that they
can malritain and even increase these operations during the
winter, reserve stocks of aircraft engines will be seriously
depleted with little possibility of replacement from British
Industry, In the future, therefore, the RAF will be incapable
of meeting similar demands unless n;aterially assisted by
sources outside the UK.
GERMANY
Serious work stoppages in western Geria.,arty and Intensi-
fied resistance to occupation policies may result from the use
of current German demonstrations by the moderate left-wing
Social Democratic Party (SPD) to call attention to its own pro-
gram for remedying economic conditions. The SPD is agitating
vigorously against further dismantling of German industries
-2
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GERMANY
for reparations and is highly critical of the currency reform
and its impact on the workers. In an attempt to regain recent
loss of prestige and to offset Communist exploitation of pres-
ent unsatisfactory economic conditions, the SPD also is advocat-
ing lower prices, higher wages, and an immediate capital levy
on all forms of property to equalize the burden imposed on the
people by the currency reform. The Party, moreover, Is making
political capital of the suspension of the works council co-
determination law (giving labor and management equal voicer
In determining industry policies); the SPD claims that this action
by Military Government is unjustified interference with the
western German socialization program.
FRANCE
Gaullist ? , .:ition to Re ud's economic .r ? mis
evidently purely political in c ? cter an appears mo
by the apprehension of the Rally of the French People (RPF)
that the new coalition government, with its broader and stranger
base, represents a practical formula for applying the very
principles preached by De Gaulle. This interpretation is sup-
ported by the fact that the RPF arguments against Reyna.ud's
program contradict De Gaulle's basic principles favoring in-
creased executive authority. The pro-RPF deputies in parlia-
ment have contended that Reynaud's request for broad executive
powers endangered parliamentary prerogatives.
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GREEK ARMY GRAMMOS OFFENSIVE-15 AUGUST 1948
11041
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4 Army Starting Line 20 June 1948
CZ) Area Cleared 20 June-15 August
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EASTERN EUROPE
YUGOSLAVIA
The Yugoslav Government is evidently resigned to an
Indefinite continuation Gibe sta.semate between Tito and the
Kremlin. The Yugoslav regime is moving cautiously, however,
to avoid widening the breach and, at the same time,
is taking
every precaution to nullify any Kremlin attempt to enforce its
Cominform discipline. Tito does not anticipate any economt:
sanctions against Yugoslavia, since the USSR probably recog-
nizes that this would push Tito even further toward the west.
Instead, covert action to overthrow the Tito government is
expected to be the Kremlin's method of attack. The Yugoslav
regime is convinced that its position will grow stronger with
the passage of time and that the Kremlin made a serious mis-
take in not reconciling the prewar "absolutism" of Communism
with the postwar needs of Communist parties now governing
Satellite areas.
GREECE
The remarkable guerrilla defense of the Grammies area -
appears finally to be succumbing to the superior weight of the
Greek Government forces. The rebel organization apparently
Is still functioning, but it is evident that sooner or later the
main body of the guerrillas must use the only escape remain-
ing to them?retreat into Albania. Because the area involved
Is now so small, the spotlight of the UN observation teams can
be sharply focused and should clearly reveal present Albanian-
Soviet policy concerning aid to Markos. However, the end of the
Gramme offensive will not mean the end of the guerrilla war in
Greece. In other parts of Greece, guerrilla raiding, sabotage,
mine planting, and recruiting have increased. Despite these
activities and the recognition by the more realistic leaders in
-4
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GREECE
Athens that the guerrilla threat to the security of the country will
continue for months, if not years, a certain optimism is evident
In the capital. The first manifestation of this optimism is in the
Initiation of political Jockeying by certain deputies to terminate
the present coalition government. A change in government
will probably take place before October. The new government
is not likely to be an improvement over the present one, which
has been unusually durable and free of partisan excesses.
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NEAR EAST-AFRICA
PALESTINE
There has been little c
in the Palestina situation.
The Provis onal I It. rae Sti no
position to soften its demands for territory allocated to the
Arabs by the UN partition resolution; has refused to demili-
tarize Jerusalem; and has threatened to force the Arab arinies
out ci Palestine if the UN does not soon effect their withdzawal.
UN Mediator Bernadotte is greatly concerned over Jewish
Intransigence and believes that, unless the PGI modIfies its
extreme position, he can make little progress toward a settle-
ment. The Arab refugee problem is straining the economic
and political resources of Syria, Lebanon, and Transjordan to
such an extent that the stability of the whole area is being en-
dangered. The US has taken the position that substantial
numbers of refugees could be permitted to return gradually
to their homes without endangering Israeli security and that
the Pas failure to cooperate in this matter will greatly in-
crease the difficulty of working out a lasting solution for the
Palestine problem.
-6.
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" SECRET
FAR EAST
S_coos ? ts for e)Ac_).Hin:. Japanese dependence
upon North China, Korea and Manchuria for raw materials
are decreasing RE a result of recent successful negotiations
by scAp to obtain its iron ore requirements from other sources.
Contracts for 590,000 tons of ore have already been signed
and negotiations are under way for an additional 540,000 tone.
The present iron ore arrangements lessen the possibility tut
the USSR will be able to use its control over raw materials
needed by Japan as an economic weapon to further Soviet
political objectives within Japan.
BURMA
=web the immediate threat to the Burma Govern-
ment has been slightly decreased by recent successes against
mutinous army units, the prospects for the present Govern-
ment to reassert its control over all of Burma are slim. The
loyal army units, judiciously used, should be able to disperse
the insurgents but the rebels will be able to continue guerrilla
warfare for some time to come. The establishment of a
stable government capable of controlling all Burmese territory
will depend upon thorough reorganization and new leadership
in both the Government and the leading political party and
upon obtaining some form of substantial assistance from an
outside power. Dr. Ba Maw, the wartime Japanese puppet
dictator and a shrewd politicianwho has been in semi-retire-
meat, may take advantage of the situation and attempt a return
to power. Although India and China are deeply concerned with
Internal conditions in Burma, both are too engrossed with
their own problems to provide significant aid. The UK can
offer limited aid but appears to be awaiting developments
before making any immediate military commitments.
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I SECRET
I
I CHINA
The militark situation in China appears to have eased
I temporarily. The arrival of Nationalist reinforcements in
Tsimui reduces the likelihood of an immediate Communist
assault on that fortified Shantung .city. In eastern Hopeh
IProvince, Nationalist General Fu Tso-yi launched the most
successful drive to date in his campaign against the Com-
I munists suidIalthough failing to trap his adversaries as
planned, he succeeded in driving them to the north and to
the west.
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
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WESTERN HEMISPHERE
Superior Nicaraguan air power will probably prove the
deciding factor in suppressing the current wave of conspira-
torial activity In Central America and in containing the guer-
rillas now operating on Nicaragua's northern frontier. General
Somoza has offered aircraft to the Panamanian Government
for the purpose of repelling any invasion of Panama organized
by Arnulfo Arias. He also has threatened to attack Costa
Rica if that country permits such an invasion; this will prof4,--:-
bly compel Costa Rica to suppress Arias' activities in its
territory. Guatemalan officials can be expected to continue
their support of anti-Somoza revolutionaries, although Nica-
ragua's superior air strength will probably be a deterrent to
Guatemala's direct espousal of the anti-Somoza cause in
Central America.
VENEZUELA
Inadequate securitycontinues inu make Venezuelan oil
fields particularly susceptible to Communistpenetration.
recent survey of the western oil fields and of the Paraguana
Peninsula indicates that the Communists already have access
to several operations including shipping, power plants, docks,
and refineries. In the non-US operated fields, the Communists
are strongly entrenched. Although the oil companies have
adopted precautionary security measures, they will require
substantial aid if an attempt is made to sabotage the industry,
and the Army and Guardia Nacional (federal police) will be un-
able to suppress promptly large-scale uprisings.
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DISTRIBUTION
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12,13,14
15,16,17
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19
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22,23,24
25,26,27.28,29
30,31,32,33,34
35,36,37,38,39
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42,43,44,45,46
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The President
Secretary of State
Chief of Staff to Commander in Chief
Secretary of Defense
Secretary of the Army
Secretary of the Navy
Secretary of the Air Force
Chairman, National Security Resources Board
Executive Secretary,National Security Council
Assistant Secretary of Navy for Air
Chief of Staff, U.S.Army
Chief of Naval Operations
Chief of Staff, U.S. Air Force
Director of Plans and Operations,General Staff,U.S.Army
Deputy Chief of Staff (Operations) U.S. Air Force
Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Operations)
Director of Plans and Operations, U.S. Air Force
Special Assistant to Secretary of State, Research &
Intelligence
Director of Intelligence, General Staff, U.S. Army
Chief of Naval Intelligence
Director of Intelligence, U.S. Air Force
Director of Security and bgelligence,Atomic Energy Comm.
Executive Secretary,Military Liaison Committee,Atomic
Energy Commission
Chief,Acquisition & Distribution Division,O/CD,DeptState
Director, Federal Bureau of Investigaticn
Secretary, Joint Chiefs of Staff
Chief, Policy Planning Staff, Dept State
Secretary of State (Attention: Mr. Barnes)
Deputy Director, Joint Intelligence Group, joint Staff
Secretary, joint Intelligence Group, Joint Staff
U.S. Air Force Representative on joint Strategic
Survey Committee
Secretary,State -Army-Navy-Air Coordinating Committee
-WNW
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U. a GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
2.31-8-1948
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