NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 29 SEPTEMBER 1948 VOL. III NO. 38

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010022-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: September 29, 1948
• Content Type: REPORT

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GA LIBRARY
NEP.R EAST/AMIGA SibINCH
INTELLIGENCE SONAR!
For Week Ending
29 September 19148
Vol. III No. 38
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Document No.
NO CHOGS in class. 0
DEOLASSIFIED
4?fass. CIANCED TO: A T:77 S C
DDA /tomo, 4 p.
Auth: toDAg.jk 1:: 0
Date: U
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NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
(INTMLIGENCE SUIDAART) Vol. III No. 3$
For Week Ending.
29 September 1948
CORRECTION
The opening lines of the article on Arab refugees, which beings
at the bottom of page 2, should read as follow
The li ht of the Arab refu ees remains critical0 While the UN may do
some ng o so ve ong?range problem of resettlement, only 17 of
the 53 members to whom Count Bernadotte appealed for interim aid have
responded; and the approximate 400,000 refugees are already confronted
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NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
For Week Ending
29 September 1948
GREECE
Vol., III Hs. 38
The Greek Argus inability to subdue the guerrillas is being forcefully
cgsmonstriterby the vigor with whia the Markets forces are now operating
in every corner of Greece. Although current guerrilla activity lecke
the dramatic character of last winter's attack on Konitsa or the recent
defense of the Grammes area, its aggressiveness and its pervasive
character indicate that the army's difficult summer offensive has brought
no decisive results. Guerrilla bands are re-infiltrating areas once
cleared by the army, including the Grammes sector; US aid projects are
being sabotaged and eqeipment is being destroyed; static positions
along the northern border are being stubbornly defended; the satellites
are continuing to provide supplies and refuge; and over?all guerrilla
strength is being steadily built up through forced recruitment and the
arrival of reserves from the satellites. Undiecouraged by their Gnmenos
losses, the guerrillas are more defiant than ever. They have recently
broadcast a description of civil machinery they have established in the
Peloponnesus, and there is a possibility that Markos might, as a
psychological coup, set up temporary headquarters there. Such a move
would not only further dishearten the Greeks but would also give an
appearance of validity, before the UN, to the contention that the Markets
junta is representative of the Greeks and is not dependent on satellite
aid. The Kremlin, undoubtedly encouraged by the guerrillas? energy,
may be expected to continue supplying them with the view of prolonging
indefinitely economic and social chaos in Greece.
PALESTINE
US and UK efforts to persuade the Arabs and Jews to accept the
bernadotte Plan are having only limited success. The Arabs oppose the
basic assumptions that Palestine be partitioned and that Israel be
granted international recogeition as a sovereign, independent state.
The Provisional Government of Israel, on the other hand, accepts the
basic assumptions but opposes such provisions as: (1) the repatriation
of the Arab refugees; (2) the internationalisation of Jerusalem; (3)
the establishment of a *free port?? at Haifa; and (4) the award of the
Negeb to the Arabs. Israel will probably accept the .Bernadotte Plan
Aseetter
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in principle but seek to have it amended during the General Assembly's
deliberations. The Arabs maybe expected formally to reject the plan
but to cooperate in implementing certain of its provisions if the UM
adopts the plan. The boundaries recommended by Bernadotte reflect, with
a few exceptions, the current military situation in Palestine and may
therefore be regarded as already in effect. Despite Jewish and Arab
dissatisfaction with the frontier, UW endorsement may give it greater
validity. The territorial question, however, is only one part of the
Palestine issue; the resolution of other problems, such as the status
of Jerusalem and the future of the Arab refugees, will require active
Arab-Jewish cooperation. The equivocal attitude of both Arabs and Jews
to the Bernadotte Plan as a whole gives little hope that such coopera-
tion is possible. Both aides apparently look upon the meeting of the
General Assembly as merely another battle in the long fight between
Zionism and the Arab world. Even if the General Assembly adopts
Bernadotte Is report, the Arabs will continue to boycott Israel politi-
cally and economically, refuse to withdraw their armies from Palestine,
and build up their strength for a future offensive against the Zionists.
The Jews will continue to encourage the immigration of Jewish DP's
and will still plan to extend their control over all Palestine. 71thout
vigorous and continuing UN supervision, hostilities are certain to
break out from time to time, and instability willbecome chronic through-
out the Arab world.
The aid tot the Arab refu:_., remains critical. While the UN may do
some ng ? so vs e ong-range pro ? em o resettlement only 17 of
its 53 members have responded to Count Bernadottels appeal for interim
aid, and the 400,000 refugees are already confronted with the prospect
of spending a winter in the open or in tents without adequate food or
clothing. Although organizations in the US have responded generously--
the American Red Cross with $450,000 in medical supplies already pro-
vided or forthcoming, the International Children's Fund with $411,000,
and the Church World Federation with Clothing and vitamins, to name a
fewe-the US itself has been unable to use official funds for the purpose,
Transjordan alone of the Arab states is contributing food regularly to
the refugees, and its contribution is sufficient for only 11,000 persons,
on the basis of the International Red Cross requirement of 500 grams of
bread per person per day. The British, although they directly contributed
100,000 pound sterling, have opposed US efforts to obtain International
Refugee Organization aid. Two other suggestions, that the balances of
the British Palestinian Government be converted into dollars for refugee
relief, and that $11 million in residual UNRRA funds be turned over to
the Mediator, have still to be officially advanced,
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3.
The Mediator's representative in Charge of the refugee problem
as been hampered by the problem of coordinsting a multiplicity of
agencies in the field as well as by basic shortages, and only limited
proeress has been made. The International Red Cross has innoculated
about 470,000 persons with typhoid vaccine supplied by Egypt and South
Africa, and it is now operating a typhoid isolation hospital at Ramallah
and clines there and at Bir Zeit. Nevertheless, no vaccine is available
against typhus, which is now considered the greatest potential danger,
and some 50,C00 doses of anti?cholera serum?far too few for general
innoculation--must be held for emergency use in the event of an out?
break. The International Red Cross plans to establish a principal
tent camp at Jericho, which appears to be the most suitable site for
the winter months because of its relatively mild climate and the
abundant supply of water there. Meanwhile, however, much wandering
back and forth between the present camps is now taking place, increasing
the problem of administration.
1
Unless ineediate improvement can be made in the refugee situation--
a problem uppermost in the eyes of the Arabs?any consideration by the
UN of Palestine problems will be viewed with even greater cynicism by
the Arab world.
IRAQ
Iraqi internal security has shown some signs of deterioration recently
despite the continuation of martial law. Demonstrations, which practically
ceased during the prosecution of the Palestine campaign, have begun to
recur, particularly in the Kurdish area around Sulimaniya, which is
especially vulnerable because of the absence in Palettine of most of
its normal garrison. The Iraqi Army's morale is bad because of its
lack of ammunition and equipment and its fear that it will have to
return to Iraq as a defeated farce. As a result, the Regent, who risked
the displeasure of the more moderate politicana by supporting the army's
desire to continue the Palestine war at any cost, has now lost influence
in military circles as well. A plot to assassinate the Regent haa
reportedly been already uncovered, and the Hashimite dynasty will
undoubtedly face additional threats to its authority when the Iraqi
people realize the extent of their defeat in Palestine.
The only bright spot in the picture is provided by the government's
efforts to prevent a recurrence of last minter's grain ahortage. With
a foresight rare in the Near East, Iraq recently purchased 30j000
tons of wheat from Syria, after a projected Syro?Italian deal had
fallen through because of a failure to agree on price. In addition,
the government has requested an allocation of grain from the International
Emergency Pood Council, and has maintained its ban on grain exports.
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INDIA-PA ICISTAN
The administration of ffdorabad baa been turned over to a military
governmen so up y v rnment of India with a yield? restoring
order and making preparations for eventual disposition of the state.
Although the holding of a plebiscite is still under consideration,
it appears more likely that the future of the state will be determined
bya constituent assembly, The assembly, which will not be elected
for some months, will obviously have a strong pro-Indian majority and
will certainly favor accession to India It will then have to decide
on the manner of accession: whether Hyderabad will be made an integral
part of India, or whether it will be split into several areas on a
linguistic basis and merged with adjoining provinces which are already
included in India. The Nizam, astutely disclaiming responsibility for
the recent actions of his own government and formally "approving' all
orders issued by the Indian military governor, may be allowed to remain
as titular head of the state if (as is considered liekly) it is incor-
porated as a whole into the Dominion of India. Meanwhile, the Razakarss
local extremists recently outlawed by Government of India, are
carrying on guerrilla activities together with small Communist bands,
to whom the Razakars have reportedly given arms.
Pear of an Indian conquest of Pakistan is currently pervading
KaracEI. The Government of-Pakistan has decided to establish a civil
defense department and to organize civil defense forces as part of a
program to make Pakistan stronger. Lemobilization in the regular armed
forces has been suspended; former air force personnel have been re-
called; and training of national guard units has been speeded up.
Although there are no indications that Irdia itself is considering an
imminent invasion of Pakistan, a vast, united subcontinent undoubtedly
remains the cherished dream of some Indian leaders. Indiags sudden
and unwarranted confidence in its army following the Hyderabad ventures
its belief that the Indian position vis-a-vis Kashmir has been strengthened
by the UN Commissiongs findings9 the death of Pakistangs Annan, and
the lack of incisive leadership in the Government of Pakistan may impel
India to adopt a more aggressive policy not only in Kashmir but toward
Pakistan in general,
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