NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 13 OCTOBER 1948 VOL. III NO. 40

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010024-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: October 13, 1948
• Content Type: REPORT

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Asectr
REAR EASE/AMC:ft BRA=
SZEILIOENGE =MY
For Week Ending
13 October 1948
Vac In roc 40
NO Mirada in Class. 0
Document No.
DECLASSIFIED
TS
Class. CA.A.MGED TO:
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 7?
Autb:. DOA REG. 77 1763
Date': OR AT BY:
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fittrET
HEAR BASTAFRICA BRANCH
.INTELLIOENOR suumar
? For Beek Ending
. 13 October 1.94B
vol. In noolto
:mem
The Greek refugeeproblem resulting from the guerrillas' campaign of
.lerrprism Is having grave econOmic repercussions in Greece. It was
believed that, following the Greek Army's summer (*orations, improved
security conditionavirouldpermit'most of the refugees to return to'
their hetes. On the contrary, the number has grown from 600,000 to
70000000 representing about one out of every ten people in Greece.
The necessity of providing for the refugees oasts the Greek Govern-
ment and. the European .recovery program some $5.5 million each month.
'Moreover, the enforced idleness of the refugees representa a largein-
, direct.losa to the Greek economy. Plane to use the dieplaced.persons
on reconstruction projects have proved abortive; the iCUR men are so
despondent and so fearful of guerrilla reprisals that few rill accept
jobs. For one European recovery project, only 150 out of 11,000 able-
bodied tan responded to recruitment; On a US military job, all the .
workers resigned following a guerrilla raid on their town. .Natty of.
the men who are removed from the public relief rolls for their failure
to work will undoubtedly join the guerrilla minks. Such situationi
will continue so long as the Greek Army ie unable to clear guerrilla
areas or even to provide adeqvate security for individual reconstruction
projects. ? ?
TURRET' .
The recent Turkish military_paneUvers are expected to provide useful
natation on Turkore aria forces. The exercises were designed to
test Turkey's defenses?ground 0 sea, and air?against an attack from
the Black Sea directed principally against the Asiatic mainland south
of the Bosphorus Straits. 'Detailed reports should indicate to what
extent the Turkish forces have been improved by the acquisition of US
materiel and, more important, the results achieved so far by US train-
ing in the use of new weapons, in mddernized methods of warfare,and
in improved techniques of organization and administration. ivories
of materiel already scheduled are far from complete, and the training
programs must be continued for several years before really significant
Improvements are revealed. The maneuvers may therefore prove disappoint-
ing as a demonstration of modern armed forces in defensive action.
Sigeftet's
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sae
2,
However, the veryweaknessee Which are disclosed--in supply, maintenance,
and leadership,- for examplee-rdll provide a valuable basis for future
aCtion by the Turkish General Staff, acting under the advice of. the DS
IlattarY Mission, -
PALESTINE
lhe forgetten man in Palestine last spring, viten the armies of the
Anab ethos crossed its boundaries, vac Raj Andn Husseni, the Grand
Mufti of Jerusalem. Disliked and distrusted.by the other Arab leaders
and possessing no army of his erns the Mufti was obliged to main in
the background throughout the summer, patiently waiting for the right
moment to make a new bid for power, ?
That moment appeared to came with the proclamation of the Palestine
Arab Government (RAQ) At a tithe when the Arab armies were defeated and
the political situation in Palestine confused. Cognizant of his accept.'
once by many Palestinian Arabs as their leader, and, indeed, as .a symbol
of resistance to the Jews, the Multi suddenly emerged from hiding in
Igyfit, chartereda plane to Gaza, and, on 29 September, was unanimously
elected president of PAGos National Assembly. It is still too early
to determine whether he thus threw his turban into thoring prematurely.
Despite his wide reputation as the champion of the Palestine Arabs,
the Mufti will meet opposition from several directions, In view of
his tractive association with the Nazis he must reckon with whatever ,
influence the Western goners canmarsh:11 against him. Among the
'palest/Man Arabs themselves, a group which may even rival the pro-
Mufti coatingent in size is sympathetic towardAbdullahos idea of a
'Greater Transiordan and is prepared to give him its backing.
. ,
The most serious opposition however, will probably come from the
Arab states, Abdullah will hatimallyoppose-the mufti as representing
the chief local barrier to incorporation Of Arab Palestine into Trans- ?
Jordan, The other Arab League states, although they oppose Abdtllahos .
ambitions, are anti-Mufti as well, however, because of the unsavory and
unpredictable quality he lends the government they sponsored. Egypt
in particular is concerned about the Muftios influence in FAG, Although
the Egyptians have now formally recognized PAG, thellufti suddenly
retUrned to Cairo on 7 October, reportedly under pressure from Xing
Farouk, to whom the Mufti had promised, when he was granted sanctuary'in
Egypt, that he Mould refrain from political activity, Egypt's prime
at
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30
minister, toannhileis salt:Ito hope that PAO, while providing the
AMbe additional time to reconcile themselves to raraelts existence,
nfl eventually wither on the vine' allowing Trenejordan (andperhapa
Egypt) quietly to annex the -Arab sections of Palestine.
ARAB STATES
? 'Soviet utterancee on the Palestine issue will belabor US-Ut PinUerialisto"
sae expressing continued support for the 29 November partition resolu-
tion if atraet being surreptitiously circulated by. Arab Communists in
Damascus is taken as authoritative. Although the manifesto risks Arab
opposition by implying continued Soviet support of Israel, its writers
evidently hope to secure a counterbalancing effect*appealing to Arab
bitterness against the Western powers and public disillusionment over
? Arab military failures, The tract attempts to explain the disastrous
Palestine war as a result of machinations by the US and UK, In.condemn-
? ing the Bernadotte plan, the document lays special emphasis on its pro-
visions for handing Arab Palestine over to "Britainte colee9, Transjordan?n
instead of allowing the Palestinian Arabs to have their own government0.
tI grb:
h? onemanifesto is of further significance in that it was jointly
?
issued by,the Communist parties of Syria, Iraq, lebanon, and Arab? .
'Palestine which have seldom hitherto acted in concert?Und was echoed
? by intensified attacks on US and British oil interests in the USSRts
.Arab language propaganda broadcasts. These signs may indicate that ? .
the USSR not only considers the tire appropriate for increased agitation
but alhOfeels that a unified movement, cutting across national boundaries;
will emphaeise Arab internal disharmonies arid the inability of the
individual Arab states to satisfy popular aspirations.
? IRAQ
A new Amp-Iraqi treaty of alliance may again be in the offing, despite
? the violent? tith which the Portsmouth Treaty was rejected in Baghdad
last spring. The Iraqi delegate to the UN has reportedly sounded out
. British Foreign Secretary Sevin on the subject and the British ambassador ,
? in? Baghdad is currently determining whether Iraq is ready to open negotia-
tions. Althoutt the Iraqi UN delegate murmured vaguely that the military
clauses must be revised when asked by Bevin what was wrong with the
Portsmouth Treaty, the Iraqi Government itself would probably be satisfied
with the original terms. It has the difficult task, ? however, of avoiding
the maladroitness which brought on the Portsmouth Treaty fiasco of ?
put ting through a treaty without appearing subservient to the UK and
thus arousing Intro fanatical nationalists. .
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LEBANON
Effective arlianentar. ow-sition to the verneknat is beginning te-
e orm for time since e nett wan =to endede A snail
but aggressive group of eleven deputies, headed by thcrimperionced
maronite leader Camille Chamoun, is maintaining a steady barrage
'against Print Minister gad Solh on 'both internal and external iseuesi
this bloc was joined by two other groups* the Phalanges and the
? National Bloc, in a recent protest boycott of parliamentary by-elections,
Although the Solh regime is generally unpopular, Chas= is handicapped
? in his efforts to form a strong, united opposition by the divisive
effect of the Paleatine issue, Needing Moslessupport as well as that
Of the Chrietien leaders who have already cooperated with his, Charon=
would ordinarily be able to rally substantial members of both groups '
. behind a drive for internal reform? At present, however, he probably
cannot rin Moslem Support without pursuing 'a strong anti-Israel policy,
which would lose for him his present Christian backing?
-INDIA-PAKISTAN
The relation:M4,p of India Paid sten) and Ceylon to the British Common-
wealth rill be one of thettopics discussetfit the Prime Ministeral
Conference now convening in London. Sentiment in India is particularly
anti-Commonwealth, and the powerful Congress Party demands that India
be called a sovereign republic. At the same time, however, the. Congress
realizes the benefits to be derived from maintaining close relations
'kith the OK, and it is highly unlikely that India would be willing to
withdraw from the Commonwealth and leave Pakistan and Ceylon alone in
the subcontinent to reap these bene.fitse Prime Minister Nehru is
therefore* probably hoping to ascertain the minizaue conditions under
which India am still remain in the Cormormealthe Possibly the
conferees win explore the feasibility of devising a formula. by which'
? the new dominions may eventually be able to become nreeublice within
the framework of the Commonwealth, although the OR is not expected to .
encourage the conference to reach any final decisions in such matterse
s's'EtTtEM
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-"atilt-ET
5.
NDTBD IN maw -
.Vi roun ? srrilla action continued in all parts of Greece.'
In the ' c! area gust a: , re 0.7,000) is the sane as in
the Gramme's operations, and the guerrillas have about a.dozon 75 mm
-guns and four 37 mm AA gum Reports indicate that satellite aid is
increasing and that a guerrilla recruitment campaign is underwayto
raise the over-all strength of the bandits from 24,000 to 401000 by
I- Decembers The Greek Angle apparent inability to cope with the
guerrillas and a general lack of confidence in the UNgs capacity to seal
the borders are intensifying the feeling of insecurity throughout the
country. 00.d 000000 Disturbances in northern Ethiopia appear.
to have taken place recently although the government has issued a denial.
The disorders vere in protest against the old land taxes and the newly
imposed school taxes. In view of the loose control maintained by the
Ventral-government over the provinces, such outbreaks must be expected,
from time to time, especially in areas with large Nosionaminorities
mach as the southeast section of the country, where the Noslem.Semalit
? seek independence from Ethiopia. 0 . . 4 4 0 0 0 0 Inaction in the
Iranianmajlis has prompted the SW01 to renew his efforts to-obtain
constitutional reformsl'indluding greaterpover for himself over
legislative processes....... .derabad, under Indian
military rine, is gradually returning to nomaX altifough the extremist
Sneakers are causing minor disorders in the northern and western sections
of the stated In Paris the Security Council has given, no indication
of the final treatment it will give to the -Hyderabad case. 0 6- 0 . 0
6 o ? The Kaehlmir dispute is causing great concern to the UK, which
hopes that the CU Commislion till make concrete recommendations instead
of merely submitting a negative report.. The UK believes that certain
areas in the southeast of Kashmir might be- ceded to India and certain
other areas to Pakistan, with a plebiscite to be held for the rest of
the disputed area.
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