INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 10 NOVEMBER 1948 VOL. III NO. 44

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: November 10, 1948
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
et 71
eseiriteRELPT--
GA ISRARI
INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
For Week Ending
10 November 1948
Vol. III No. 14)4
Document No.
NO CHANGE in Class.
9,4DECLASSIFIED
.1uss. CHANCD TO:
DDA Memo, 4
Auth: DDA REG. 77
Date: 3 MAR 1978
TS
Apr 77
1763
By:
NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
OFFICE OF HEPOJCS AND ESTIMATES
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
SECRET
NEAR EAST/AFRICA EIRANC11
INTELLIGENCE SUNIA RI
For "%leek Ending
10 November 1948
GlittOE
VolIIII No04li
Although Prime Minister Sophoulis has decided to resign as soon as the
ON finishes its consideration of the Creek case, the dissident politi-
cians who forced him to this decision are unlikely to effect any drastic
changes in the present Liberal-Populist coalition, Sophocles Venizelos,
the insurgent Liberal who has been chiefly responsible for the ,,sesent
crisis, has won little support for his concept of a government valich
would be above party politics; he is probably too distasteful to the
Populists to be brought into the Cabinet and has also lost favor with
the Liberal party leadership under Sophoulis, The Rightist bloc of
Zervae and Gonatos (both of whom have cooperated with the Populists
in the pest) could bring votes to a now coalition but will probably
remain unrepresented because of Zervaal dubious international reputa-
tion, Thus the new government will probably represent an attempt by
Sophoulis and Populist leader Tsaldaris (who remain pledged to cooperate
with each other) to augment the bare majority the coalition nom possesses
by obtaining additional support from center elements in the National
Assembly. The Centrist leaders Papandreou and Canellopoulos command
enough votes to insure continuation of the coalition, are free of
unpleasant associations which would damage Greek prestige abroad, and
could probably be persuaded to support present coalition policies,
The Greek Army's inability to maintain the offensive is providing the
guerrillas with ample opportunity to create a maximum of internal dis-
order and to build up their reserves for the winter, About half of
the army's effective combat strength is now committed to containing
guerrilla border concentrations; the remainder, scattered thinly through-
out northern and central Greece, is unable to provide adequate protection
of the communications, road reconstruction projects, and villaes and
towns which the guerrillas select for sabotage raids and lightning
attacks. Forced recruiting, particularly in the Peloponnesus, is going
forward on such a scale as to substantiate reports that the guerrillas
intend to double their strength by January. Now that the Greek question
is before the UN, the guerrillas are also increasing their attacks in
areas far from the northern borders so as to nprove" to the world that
Greece's troubles are purely internal, Meanwhile, the Greek Government's
efforts to improve the military situation have bogged down, Although
country-wide martial law was recently authorized; details for its
SECRET
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
SECRET
2.
implementation have yet to be worked out. The reorganization of army
units necessary for new offensive action has scarcely begun, Discus?
sions for the appointment of a supreme Commander in Chief have been
postponed until after the current political crisis has been resolved.
TURKEY
Soviet efforts to nee the Greek Orthodox Church as a medium for per?
suasion and propaganda have undoubtedly received a setback wath :the
election of Athenagoras, Archbishop of North and South America, to the
Ecumenical Patriarchate at Istanbul, Under Maximos V, Athenagoras'
predecessor as ranking prelate of Greek Orthodoxy, Patriarch Alexei of
Moscow made persistent efforts to assume the initiative in church
affairs and quietly to persuade church dignitaries throughout the Near
East that Greek Orthodox interests were well served by Moscow. Although
Maximos opposed these attempts to usurp his prerogatives, he has been
so sickly during the last two years as to be sometimes wholly ineffectual;
sueh leading church dignitaries as the Patriarch of Antioch reportedly
warmed to Alexeils advances, Alexei will probably make new attempts
to win friends and influence patriarchs in the Near East, to the accom?
paniment of Soviet denunciations of Athenagoras (who became a US citizen
during his long stay in New York) as a US tool, Nevertheless, the more
vigorous Athenagoras can be expected to be far more effective than his
ailing predecessor in asserting the leadership of the Ecumenical Patriarch?
ate over the Greek Orthodox world.
IRAQ
The recert h 1 million advance made by PC (Iraq Petroleum Company) to
the -Iraqi Government may not be sufficient to prop the country's totter?
ing financial position. The original Iraqirequest to the British
Treasury was for the sum of 3 million, an amount which financial
experts familiar with the situation consider a necessary minimum, Though
the Treasury professed itself unable to be of assistance, the British
Government did take the lead in arranging for the IPC advance,
The prevent circumatnaces seem ideally suited to enable IPC to gain
kudos and at the same time to follow a course which appears sound from a
hardheaded business standpoint, The petroleum resources of Iraq are
estimated at 8 billion barrels, representing a potential asset of perhaps
$16 billion, To protect this asset, IPC might offer to advance sufficient
funds to meet Iraq's present needs, such funds to be charged against
future oil royalties, In view of IPC's plans for expansion, these
royalties should be very substantial within the next few years. Again,
SECRET
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
SECRET
J.
looking at the move strictly fram the point of IPCIe self-interest,
such a gesture night calm the current agitation fora renegotiation
Of the royalty rate. A precedent for the practice can easily be found.
&RAMC? made substantial advancee to the Saudi Arabian Government before
royalties from current production were sufficient to meet the Saudi
Government's needs; ss a consequence, relations between the government
and ARMCO are very cordial.
IRAN
The vacancy left by the resignation of Prime Minister Ha ir ha, teen
filled with unaccustomed promiAnees-by the Hajlis. Reverthelees, there
is no indication of how long Mohammed Saed, the new prime minister,
?ill have the support of the deputies who voted him into office and
thus be able to prevent recurrence of the near-stagnation in government
which drove Hajir out of office. Although Seed is an experienced
politician who appears to get along well with the &oho he has only
Baited executive ability and has not demonstrated the high degree of
political astuteness and forcefulness needed to wring any legislation
out of the Majlis as currently constituted. Seed is considered honest
and patriotic ands, although he may try to capitalize on his experience
as Ambassador to the USSR by attempting to better Soviet-Iranian rela-
tions, can be expected to oontinue Iran's policy of collaboration with
the US. Daring his previous period as prime minister in 1944, Seed
flatly refused to grant the USSR an oil concession and later, as a
member of the Majlie in 1947, argued strongly against the proposed
Irano -Soviet Oil CompanY0
AFGHANISTAN
The outward unconcern with which Afghanistan formerly viewed the USSR
Ili apparently being afsplaced-by a oharp appreciation of the danger
of Soviet aggression. Despite the Afghan Government's only partially
resolved differences with Pakistan over the Pathan tribesmen, the tmo
governments are now negotiating o reciprocal military agreement, directed
primarily against the USSR, in which Pakistan would be permitted to
send troops into Afghanistan to help resist an invasion. At the same
time the US Military Attache in Kabul has observed a new spirit of
cooperation on the part of hitherto reserved Afghan military and gendar-
merie officials. Also Afghan representatives in reshington have been
seeking US technicians for Afghanistan's development projects despite
the suspicion with which the USSR regards U.S personnel already in the
country.
SECRET
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
SECRET
Ir.
N3TED IN BRIEF
The Greeks are very resentful over Australia's proposal in the ON
that bream? get together with Ste satellife neighbors in an attenrpt to
resolve border difficulties. They feel that satellite intransigence
has been amply demonstrated, that any promises the satellites might
make could not be relied on, and that Greece might be maneuvered into
granting valuable concessions. Moreover, the Greeks do not wish to
expose themselves to the propaganda attacks which would follow their
refusal to accept the satellite terms or to be the scapegoat for "hat
they consider Western failure to stop satellite aid to the guerrillas.
A rising cost of living in Greece is again alder-
mining the precarious wage-price equilibrium. It also threatena to
bring a new round of strikes, increase the budget deficit, and retard
economic rehabilitation. . . a . . The Greek-Italian treaties
of friendship, trade, navigation, and conciliation, signed at San Remo
5 November, leave only final agreement on reparations still to be
reached by the two countries. By aiming the accord, Foreign Minister
Tsaldaris has added a much-needed feather to his cap, after failing in
his Paris mission to obtain decisive UN action on the Greek problem.
0 . 0 . a . . . Turkey no longer grants exit visas to Jews wishing
to go to Palestine and has canceled the visas already issued, presumably
In response to Arab objections that fighting men were being provided to
augment the Israeli forces. The Turks have no desire to participate
in the Arab-Zionist controversy, and they particularly wish to do
nothing which might destroy the friendliness of their Arab neighbors to
the south. . . a . . Once again Turkey has halted inports from
sterling countries, presumably Tas was the case last year, on the
first
such postwar occasion) because sterling balances are too high. The
prohibition will probably last until the UK manages to buy enough
Turkish products to liquidate or substantially to decrease Turkey's
excessive sterling holdings. . . . . a . a Ltirect negotiations
between Israeli and Tranajordan delegates, according to the Paris
radio, have taken place in Jerusalem, Whether or not true, the broad-
cast represents the first public announceaent that at least setae of
the Arab leaders are willing to have dealings with Israel. It /Lay be
the first step in a softening-up process designed to bring the other
Arab states into line, and may also serve as a trial balloon to test
popular Arab reaction to the possibility of a negotiated settlement in
Palestine. 0 , The Security Committee of the laraeli
Parliament has dissolved the separate headquarters of the Palmach,
crack striking force of the Israeli Army, in a ruling which forbids
political backing of any unit of the army. The Committee's action wan
probably inspired by the Nepal (Palestine Labor Party), Israel's
dominant party, as a move against its strongest rival, the socialist
Mapam (United Labor Party), which has reportedly been giving its
SECRET
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9
-FpreiSitet-,
50
support to the Palmacha aa.....a.. The Conmunist"Manifestot"
distributed in Dmmascus on 6 Octobers has now made its appearance on
the streets of Baghdad: The public reaction in both cities has been
apathetic. , . a Soviet support for the Arab position
on Palestine will be sought by.Bayadh Sulh, Lebanese Prime Miniater
anri-4-giUtate, according to a message he has sent to his gevernment.
He has also suggested that Lebanon recognize the Warsaw Government as
a tactical move in the UN discussion?. . 0 . a . 0 . Further
indication of Arab disillusionment with the Nest is the reported state?
tsen 0.e? e & ?reser r fls r of Defense, that he
intends to return to politics on a prograa of opposition to Western
oil interests and closer collaboration with the USSR, c e too, co
? The US delay in suppling the Saudi Arabian Airlines with Li..-re
parte has given;t1tish air interests the opportunity to gain a foot?
hold in the kingdom. British representatives are presently engaged in
demonstrating Viking *plush jobs" to Saudi officials. Saudi purchase
of British planes would necessitate a stocking of an entire new supply
of parts and the probable hiring of British pereonnels thereby Jeopardis?
ing US connections with the line, now operated by TWA. 0aaaa.00
? 0 Iranian officials are concerned over the success of the pro?Soviet
Tudeh Patty's current membership See. Increases in Tudeh sentiment
have been particularly noticable in the schools and universities, -where
faculty members as well as students have been won over to the partya
. oa . . a . The Anglo?Iranian Oil Company and the Government
have completed in what is described as a "spirit of mutual and sincere
cooperation" preliminary negotiations for the revision of the company's
concession agreement which Iran has been seeking. Discussions of the
proposed revision are scheduled to be resumed in January 1949a 0 . a 0
a 0 0 0 0 0 India and Pakistan have concluded a trade agreement by
which Pakistan will deliver cotton and grain in return for Indian cloth,
coal, steel, and other commodities. Both dominions have urgently
needed such an exchange plan, and the agreement in no way indicates
that a general political settlement is approaching.
442C Eirr'
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010028-9