INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 8 DECEMBER 1948 VOL. III NO. 48

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010032-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: December 8, 1948
• Content Type: REPORT

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INTELLIGENCE StIMNARY
For Week Ending
8 December 1948
Vol.III N3.48
Document No.
NO CHANGE in Class. El
>AF,LCLASSIFIED
Class. CHANGED TO: TS
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA BEG. 77 1763
Date: _ISUMBY:
40/
s -
WAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
OFFICE OF REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
For Week Ending
8 peceMber 1948
GREECE
Vol.III 110.48
Possible political developments: The life of the government sworn in
on 16 NOvemler (see V:eeklySummaey of 24 November) has probably been
prolonged a few weeks by the illness and 'miraculous" recovery of
Prime Minister Sophoulis. Political opposition has refrained from
attacking the ailing Sophoulis but will return to the fray as soon as
it is believed that public affection for the person of Sophoulis will
allow. Even then the splinter Liberals led by Tenizelos will probably
not make a drastic bid for majority power but will negotiate with
Tsaldaris and the Populists for another coalition within the present
general right-center framework, Mere shuffling of personalities,
however, will not increase the efficiency of the government or the
army, although it certainly will increase the growing impatience of
the people. Eventually, this impatience and a deteriorating military
and economic situation will break the political vacuum in which govern-
ments of the last two years have been created and have died. Then,
probably, the King will order Markezinis, a clever leader of the New
Party but as yet untried as a national leader, and General Papagos? the
rather colorless hero of Greek resistance in 19409 to form a government
with authoritarian overtones. In all these negotiations the politicians
will be dancing one short step ahead of disaster, and it will be miraculous
if some one does not trip and bring the whole lot down at the feet of the
Communists.
Talks with satellites unproductive: airing the Paris UN discussion of
the Greek problem, an Australian resolution was introduced calling for
bilateral discussions between Greece and Albania, Yugoslavia, and
Bulgaria under the aegis of Secretary General Ile and GA President
Evatt. The points to be discussed included: the resumption of diplomatic
relations (with Albania and Bulgaria); the creation of frontier regulations,
patrols, and commissions assisted by UN observers; and acceptance of
peace treaty terms concerning frontiers (in the case of Albania and
Bulgaria). The talks began on 12 November and are still under way. In
spite of optimistic reports by Evatt, nothing has been accomplished or
is expected to be. Agreerent between Greece and )31goslavia appeared to
be nearing until Thgoslavia announced that no agreements could be made
which did not include Albania and Bulgaria. The matter rests there.
The only apparent result has been that in Greece (where the talks have
been publicized as they have not in the satellite states) a non-Communist
minority has been encouraged to declare for a fellow-travelling course of
reconciliation with the bandits,
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TURKEY
Sake Government may fall: The Hamm Sake Government very quickly ran
into lifficuities wit. the commencement of the Assembly's winter session-
Premier Saks was so strongly attacked in the Assembly-for miamanagenent
of economic affairs that he was compelled to seek a vote of confidence
in his own PRP (People's Republican Party) caucus; he won the vote by a
vide margin but only after about one third of the PRP deputies had left
the hall, It is evident that Sake faces still further criticism from
all sides and that (despite the heavy PAP majority in the Assembly) the
government may fall before the session ends.
If the Sake Cabinet falls, Foreign Minister Sadak may be asked to
form a cabinet in order to emphasise the continuation of Turkey's for-
eign policy, although he lacks specialised knowledge of administration
or economics. It is more likely, however, that President Inonu will
select a deputy who possesses some experience in administration and
who is not unacceptable to PRP moderates, whose opposition to Saks seems
to be growing. The most likely choice is perhaps General Cebesoy, one
of the leading personalities in the creation of the republic and a man
who is widely-respected for his integrity and administrative ability,
The section of Cebesoy? however, presupposes a victory-a President
Inonu over the diehard conservatives of the PRP, who would prefer a man
of their own choosing, such as Rilmi Wan, Vice-President of the PRP0
The riot season begins: The annual eruption of student demonstrations
which normally takes place throudhout Turkey-in December has now started
in Istanbul. Unlike the student riots of many other countries, these
mob scenes usually cause no concern to the security services. Having
set up protective police cordons around buildings housing Soviet or
satellite representatives to prevent international incidents from aris-
ing, the authorities can look on with a benevolently paternalistic eye
as the young hotheads shout nationalistic songs and sloenna and listen
to anti-Gommunist speeches, No'harned is done except to Turkey's left-
wingers, whose property is apt to be roughly handled, This of course,
does not rouse any ire on the part of the local Chief of Police, whose
sons and nephews (carefully coached by him beforehand) may wellbe in
the vanguard of the marching thousands of young patriots.
ARAB STATES
Tranajordan-Israeli agreement? The meeting of Palestine Arabs at Jericho
lo proclaim Abluilah "King of'All Palestine" and the cease-fire agree-
ment between Israeli and Arab Legion leaders for the Jerusalem area may
form the bees for a subsequent Israeli-Tram:Jordan rapprochement, The
cease-fire, which has been surprisingly effective, serves as a trial-balloon
c
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to teat the attitude of the other Arab states toward an Arab-Israeli
agreement. So far, there has been no violent Arab reaction to the
cease-fire, and the fact that Transjordan and Israel have reached an
accord in military matters offers a precedent for agreement in other
spheres. Althougn the Jericho meeting prorlsimed Abdullah king of "all"
Palestine (preauraably for propaganda purposes), Abdullah realizes that
the existence of a Jewish state must be accepted and has long been eager
to annex merely the Arab portions of Palestine. Similarly, Israeli
officials have sought to nark out a political agreement with Abdullah
in the hope that an arrangement with the strongest Arab state mould
probably break up the Shaky structure of the Arab League and dissipate
the threat of concerted military action againat Israel. If Abdallah
concludes that he can weather the initial storm of Arab indignation
which any political agreement with Israel mould certainly provoke, he
may well seek to conclude negotiations with the Israelis concerning
the Arab and Jewish areas of Palestine.
Popular demonstrations: Current mob demonstrations in Syria and Egypt
suggest that the Arab peoples are increasingly aware of their ability
to influence government policy by direct presaure. This trend gees far
to explain the present tendency of Arab political leaders to avoid arty
clear-cut statements of official policy on controversial matters (such
as Palestine, Anglo-Arab relations, etc.) which might provoke new mani-
festations by dissatisfied elements. The effectiveness of such popular
pressure was indicated in Iraq last January, when mob action forced the
resignation of the Jabr Government following the unpopular treaty negotia-
tions with the II& The immediate pretext for these recent outbreaks is
alleged mismanagement in Palestine, but the basic cause is the economic
plight of the Arab people. Governmental inability to cope with such
internal problems as inflation, petroleum shortages, and taxation has
intensified popular resentment over Israeli diplomatic and military
successes. Because of the volatile Arab temperament, it is always
possible that a manifestation originally planned as a mere formal pro-
test may get completely out of hand, as apparently happened in Damascus
and Cairo last week. It is premature to speculate regarding the eventual
security of the ruling houses in Iraq and Egypt or of the republican
regimes in Syria and Lebanon. History, however, is studded with cases
where the underestimation of popular feeling has caused the collapse
of a dynasty. Present events may, indeed, lead to a new Arab awakening.
Syro-Lebaneae Common Interests talks stalemated: The deadlock between
Syria and Lebanon regarding the formal extension of the Cannon Interests
agreement (reported in the reekiy Suraraary of 20 October) continues. The
principal difficulty revolves about the question of import control. Syria
is insisting that imports be strictly limited (with the complete banning
of luxury articles) to conserve scarce foreign exchange. Lebanon's
-EPECrir
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4.
economy, on the other hand, is based primarily on trade and upon
Beirut's prominence as a shipping center. Tho Lebanese are accord-
ingly reluctant to enter into any agreement which would reduce this
trade volume.
The discussions have been further complicated by the wheat questionc
Hitherto, Syrian dependence upon Lebanese merchants and port facilities
has been counterbalanced by Lebanese dependence upon Syrian wheat; bath
factors have always been a source of some irritation between the tmo
countries, thile normally the logical procedure would be for Lebanon
to obtain its wheat requirements from Syrian supplies, the present price
of Syrian wheat is considerably above world market quotations. Lebanon
has, accordingly, made efforts to wriggle off the hook by importing wheat
from abroad. Syrian reaction to this development has reportedly been to
insist that any extension of the Common Intereots agreement provide for
severe restrictions upon the importation of wheat and flour.
There the matter rests. If current Syrian efforts to place the
unbacked currency on a more stable basis are successful, prospects for
agreement between the two countries should be improwKi0 rhile an
eventual meeting of minds is probable, considerable amounts of coffee
have yet to be consumed over the conference table before that point is
reached.
INDIA-PAKISTAN
Kashmir solution still remotes By indulging in a new exchange of
recriminations over Kashmir and Hyderabad, India and Pakistan have
further undermined the efforts of the UN Security Council and the UN
Kashmir Comoission to achieve the basis for a peaceful settlement in
Kashmir before the UN Closes down for Christmas. /n response to
Pak4stani charges that the Indian Army is undertaking a major offensive
in Kashmir, in violation of the Kashmir Commission's request not to
"aggravate" the situation there, India has asserted that the initiative
in Kashmir has cone from Pakistan and that Indian operations have been
defensive, At the same tine India has countered Pakistani demands for
a re-opening of the Hyderabad case before the Security Council by
charging that ammunition surrendered by the Hyderabad Army to India bore
the markings of Pakistani ordnance depots. At Paris, the US and UK
are close to agreement on a draft resolution which contemplates an
imposed cease-fire for Kashmir followed by a plebiscite under a UN
plebiscite administrator, It is doubtful* however, that definite UM
action can be obtained this year. Mhen the UN resumes its activities
early next spring, improved weather conditions in Kashmir will increase
the danger of a military solution of the problem.
`stork-Et
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SECI.ET
)TED IN BMW
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5.
The Greek ire.. complaint; that the Minister of Coordination**
transfer of 500 Billion drachmae from reconstruction to the military
budget was made necessary by the inadequacy of US credits to the
armed forces, ? 0 . . A Greek law requiring male nationals
of military age residing outside the country to return for military
service will have no appreciable effect on military operations but will
provide a slight boost to morale in the light of past draft evasions.
. 0 ..... 0 ? Sizable recent British purchases of Turkish tobacco
may lead to a long-run solution of the surplus problem which has plagued
Turkey's principal export commodity ever since '4orld P:ar II, when it
lost the important Comae market. The British Government would undoubt-
edly like the UK's future tobacco needs to come from Turkey, to avoid
dissipation of dollar exchange. The chief difficulty will arise over
the necessity for re-educating British tastes away from the Virginian
type tobaccos currently in use tack toward the Turkish blends favored up
to World War I. 0 * . 0 . The rainy season in Palestine has
aggravated the desperate plight of the Arib refugees, who have been
caught without food, shelter, or hope. UN councils, mindful of even
worsened conditions during the minter, are accelerating their efforts
to set up an adequate relief administration; 0 . 00,0*001qThe
Arabs, in opposing the US-UK resolution in the GA Political Committ7e,
tound[themeelves paradoxically aligned with the Soviet bloc and the
nations friendly to Israel. Through their intransigence, the Arabs
have again missed an opportunity to support a solution which (while
recognizing the existence of Israel) might have served at least to limit
the Arab loss by defining to some extent the Israeli domain
o . . 0 The recent refusal by Mapes (the leftist United Labor Part,
in Israel) to allow the Communists to be included on the party ballot
for the 25 January elections indicates that although tapam favors closer
Soviet-Israeli relations, it is far from accepting unreservedly the
Soviet party line0 . 0 ? . The Egyptian riots, caused in
part by election incidents in the Sudan, -have shaken Nbkrashrs position
as Prime Minister and have also given a setback to the attempts of high
Egyptian officials to improve Anglo...Egyptian relations. Although
Nokrastorhas publicly opposed British administration in the Sudan and
has been termed the chief stumbling block to reopening of the treaty
talks with the C46 his position at head of the government automatically
sakes him subject to criticismjtomall sides. King Farouk .also
stands to lose from last week's dieturbances. Re had hoped for a
rapprochement with the RAU* endhae made gestures of goodwill in
that direction; the current popular troubles, however, have forced him
to issue statements opposing Britisivinterests. . 0 0
Iran has made a bid for the US dollars its opium could buy by indicating
its willingness to abide by international narcotic regulations and even
to restrict opium production in Iran. Alp to now /ran has been barred
from making shipments to the UPli ehiCh_permits narcotics to be imported
for medical purposes only, because of the substantial business it has
%GMT?
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6, .
done with the Orient in violation of international controls, Prime
Minister Saed's close ties with Iran's leading opium merchants, as
well as Iran's need for dollar exchange, are probably responsible for
the point's being raised at the present CC:
Soviet courtship of India has now taken the form of lavish praise
nr Indian meteorological achievements, expressed by the chief Soviet
delegate at a recent international conference of meteorologists in
India, The Soviet representative also voiced the hope that contacts
between Indian and Soviet weathermen mould be strengthened in the
future.
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