INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 26 JANUARY 1949 VOL. IV NO. 3

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010037-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: January 26, 1949
• Content Type: REPORT

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NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
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OFFICE OF REPORTS AND ESTLIATES
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WORKING PAPER
NOTICE: This document is a working papers NM
an Official CIA issuance, and has not necessarily
been coordinated with other ORE producing compo-
nents, It represents current thinking by one
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It is intended solely fdr the information of the
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Document No.
NO CHANGE in Class. 0 :tigd
/KECLASSIFIED
s. CHAI!GED TO: TS S C
D -?--179111
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA R2G. 77/1763
Date: .2rjullug70 By: 011
dosetifirer
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4) II
perS
INTELLIGENCE SatIARY
For Week Ending
26 January 19149
Vol. IV No, 3
NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
OFFICE OF REPORT'S AND ESTIDATES
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
:erentir
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SECRET.
?
NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLIGENCE SWEARY
For teek Ending
26 January 1949
GREECE
Vol. IV No 3
The new coalition: Although another Sophoulis coalition government
is all that merged from the cabinet crisis which has been convulsing
Athens during recent weeks, the new combination embodies some changes
which may enable it to govern more effectively than did its predecessor.
With the return of the insurgent Venizelos Liberals to the party fold,
Tsaldaris formerly dominant Populist suoporters have been displaced
by Liberals in the government's key posts and relegated to relatively
minor ministries; Tsaldaris himself, although still Foreign Minister,
has been stripped of his title of Deputy Prime Minister. Prime Minister
Sophoulis, accordingly, may feel free to proceed more vigorously with
his social, economic, and military program. Meanwhile, though the
plan to bring the Papandreou centrist bloc into the government has
fallen through, the government has been strengthened by the addition of
the energetic markezenis? the only new political leader to emerge since
the war, and of the brilliant but vacillating centrist, Canellopoulos.
General Papagps has finally accented the new post of Commander?in?Chief
of the Army and, with the aid of. Canellopoulos2 who is now Minister of
.War, may be able to prevent military operations from being? bogged,dOwn
in political interference. However salutory these changes may be; the
gpvernment nevertheless remains susceptible to its old ailments. The
government has been broadened sufficiently to assure it of ample support
when Parliament reconvenes l' February, but the combination is an unstable
one, made up of traditionally incompatible elements brought together
only after a peremptory staterient has been issued from the palace, hinting,
at an imposed) non?parliamentary government if the warring politicians
did not get together0 then the shock of the King's ultimatum wears off,
'political. rivalries within the Cabinet are likely to emerge once more
to hamper the effective execution of a coherent policy,
Papagosl task: The most pressing of the problems confronting the new
Greek Government is primarily the responsibility of General Papagos0 as
Commander?in?Chief of the army, The Greek Army is currently spread thin;
a reinforced division is committed to clearing the Peleponnesus of
guerrillas and the other seven divisions are scattered through northern
and central Greece for purposes of static defense, minor clearing opera?
tions, and the containment of guerrilla border concentrations at
Eaimaktchalan and Vitsi. As a result; the guerrillas have been able to
maintain their supply lines and to build up local superiority for spectacular
.S.Frefttsr
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raids on large provincial towns; in the past six weeks auch attacks on
Kardhitsa, Edessa, Neoussa? and Karpenision have wrought great destruc?
tion, terrorized the inhabitants, and aggrevated the refugee problem.
Papagos, who led the Greek Army in its successful resistance to the 1940
Italo?Albanian invasion, appreciates the army's present shortcomings and
has already called for greater discipline, initiative, and agressiveness.
While the army has reacted enthusiastically to his assumption of command,
it is too early to note improvements in the armyis functioning or to gauge
whether the amyl's present enthusiasm can be maintained through the hard
months ahead.
TURRET
Cabinet's prospects poor: The new Turkish Cabinet under cemseddin
nilanitay giveslittle promise of solving the economic and fiscal problems
which have increasingly beset 'Emery Turkish cabinet since the war and
whicn finally drove the new government's predecessor out of office,
Prime Minister 0finaltay9 a party stalwart with little administrative
experience, has displayed questionable wisdom in combining the critically
important Ministries of Commerce and Fconomy, Moreover, although his
Choice for the job, the 43?year?old Cemil it Harlan, is regarded as a
raetiber of the more progressive group in the government party and served
briefly as Minister of Connerce in the Saka Cabinet, his career as a
legal advisor and deputy has provided him little sustained contact with
many of the problems he now must face. In the speculation which has
already arisen concerning Ganaltay's successor, two candidates--both of
them in the present government?stand out, One is Nihat Erim, the leading
member of the party's liberal wing and a protege of President DIEU, who
has just culminated the most rapid rise of any Turkish politician by
becoming, at the astonishing age of 360 Deputy Prime Minister. The
other strong possibility is NUrullah Feat Sher, a former director Of
the government?controlled Samerbank and a wartime Minister of Finance,
who has just been recalled from an important post with the International
Bank and Monetary Fluid to become a Minister of State. In this assign?
ment he will be in charge of coordinating foreign credits and will pre?
sumably exercise some supervision over the projects utilizing such credits,
PALESTINE ?
?
The Rhodes talks: The Israeli?Egyptian armistice talks have reached a
deadlock, apparently over occupation of the Negeb during the projected
arnistice period. The Egyptians insist that the Israelis, in compliance
with the Security Council's 4 November resolution, with draw their forces
in the Negeb north to the lines held when the Israeli offensive began
on 14 October, The Israelis, on the other hand, seem determined to hold
on the greater part of their military gains. As a result of this dispute,
the Israelis now refuse to release the Fgyptian garrison trapped at
Faluja despite the ascord previously reached on this matter by Israeli
Sliegrir
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43terRET
3,
and Egyptian representatives < gutual recriminations have ensued, with
the Egyptians accusing the Israelis of broken promises, and the Israelis
maintaining that the Faluja release is contingent on the conclusion of
Sri armistice. Thus the Negri:, boundary dispute exemplifies the difficulty
of establishing a firm basis for negotiating an armistice. The Israelis,
strongly confident from their mililary victories, are willing to negotiate
only if their chief demands are substantially net, The Egyptians, however,
have already demonstrated that they will not accept Israeli terms
indiscriminately. If the UN Acting Led-I:A.0r can find no working basis
for Israeli?Egyptian agreement in the near future, hostilities may break
out in Palestine once again.
NOTED IN BRIEF
At the instigation of Greek Socialist leaders, the British Labour
Party is sending a representative to Athens to demand that the ELD-SKE
Socialist express unequivocal opposition to Morkos or be expelled from
the Socialist International, The fellow?travelling attitude of FLD-SNE?
the best?known of the Greek Socialist groups, has been a serious source
of embarrassment to the other Socialist parties in Greece?
*
Reports that General Salih Omurtak is severely ill have started
rumors that he will be replaced as Chief of staff o? the Turkish armed
forces, probably by General Nuri Yamut, Inspector?General (i.e0 commander)
of the First Arley.
? Experts of the UN International Bank for Reconstruction and Develop?
ment are now enroute to Turkey to consider applications for credits by
the Tarkish Government. The bank representative will undoubtedly regard
the program they will finance as a corollaiv to that of ECA, but in judg?
ing the usefulness of the projects proposed by Turkey will use standards
considerably' stricter than those employed by EGA officials,
Wald participation in the Egyptian coalition government once again
appears "imminent," with the king reportedly prepared to make concessions
to get them in and the British ginister active in persuading the V,Afd
to cooperate.
The arrest of another bomb?laden Dthoran youth in Cairo last week led
to police discovery of a new terrorist plot, possibly aimed at eliminating
the Prime Uinister and other key officials, in which some seventy junior
--grEkelktreI1
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?PatET
army officers, led by the bitterly anti-government Lt. Oen. al-Masri
Pasha, were involved,
The ..ssibility of a' Syrian-UK raporochement has been revived by the
repo e? recent ef orts o t e yrian Minister in Lon on to soun out
the British Foreign Office regarding the UK's actions if Syria were
attacked.
An official parliamentary ,opposition in Lebanon has now been
organized for the first time, .apparently with the approval of the
President. The opposition group will include some of his closest personal
friends and advisors.
The Transjordan Government has been placed in an extremely awkward
financial position by recent expanses arising out of the Palestine
Campaign and the influx of Arab refugees, though it is probable that
the UK will soon avert a .crisis by making additional funds available
to Abdullah,
The center of communist activity for the Middle Bast has been
shifted from Beirut to Haifa, according to British, French, and?Turkish
sources.
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