NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 22 JUNE 1949

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 58
• Publication Date: June 22, 1949
• Content Type: REPORT

,ij 11
Declassified and Approvea For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6
YO I it ?
a
? NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
OFFICE OF REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
CENTRA J.. INTE LLIGENCE AGENCY
Return to QA Libmo,
WORKING PAPER
NOTICE,: This document is a working paper, NOT
aircifficial CIA issuance, and has net necessarily
been.coordinated with other ORE producing compo-
nents. It represents current thinking by one .
group of specialists in CIA, ard is designed for
use by others engaged on &Last's!' or overlapping
studies. The opinions expressed herein may be
revised before.final and. official Publication.
:It is intended solely for the information of the
addressee and not for, further diasemination.
%Copy for:
Document No.
corp
NO CHANGE in Class.
A DECLASSIFIED
' ass. C3ANGED TO:
TS . S?
SEr,AET
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA F70. 77/1763
Date: 6 MAR 197 y: 01/
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6
? r?
..F.CET
NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY Vol. IV No. 24
For Week Ending
22 June 1949
GREECE
Imsadzin difficulties : Major labor problems may soon occupy the
attention of the Greek Government. The government's stopgap agreement
with the civil servants on wage and price difficulties reached in April is
about to end, and Greek labor generally sees that the various promises to
produce a salary readjustment by 1 July show no sign of materializing.
The greatly reduced value of Greek wages makes it politically unsafe for
Greek labor, political, or government leaders to put off finding a definitive
solution for the problem. Inasmuch as the government, which has already
reached the point of diminishing returns in regulative machinery, could
offer little except frankly inflationary measures or another stopgap fornrula,
the Greeks will probably try to make ECA/Greece bear much of the onus
for finding, or for failing to find, a long-range settlement. Consequently,
although strikes and recriminations will certainly contribute to local
political instability, the brunt of the problem will probably have to be
borne directly by the US.
TURKEY
Collectiv security: Months of Turkish prodding have finally resulted
in a French note acknowledging that France is still bound by its 1939
security alliance with Turkey and the UK. This seems to be about all
the Turkish Government can accomplish for the moment in strengthening
Turkey's collective security position; the UK has already profferred
similar reassurances on several occasions since the end of the war, while the
US, during Foreign Minister Sadales trip to Washington last month, firmly
reiterated its direct interest in Turkey's continued stability and independence.
Eventually, however--although probably not until sometime after the
Atlantic Treaty has been ratified--the Turks may again seek more definite
commitments from the Western powers on the subject of collective
security, The Turkish approach may take the form of a proposal to extend
the "North Atlantic" treaty area eastward across the Mediterranean, or it
may involve a renewed effort to conclude some separate but correlated local
agreement, supported at least by the US. As a related or substitute proposal,
SECRET
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6
????' ???.,
the Turks may well propose a. re-definition of the tripartite agreement
newly reaffirmed by France. The agreement--which includes the stipula-
tion that Turkey cannot be required to take any action judged inimical to
the USSR--was drawn up on the basis of the situation at the start of World
War U and is ill-suited for use in present or foreseeable future circumstances.
ARAB STATES
Uneasiness in high places: Colonel Zaim's internal reorganization in
Syria continue to have an unsettling effect on Syria's neighbors. The
Lebanese Government, evidently fearful that its domestic opposition may
emulate the Syrian dictator, has now arrested a number of members of the
Syrian Popular Party, which advocates unification of the Arab states,
although there appears to be no justification for the government's charges
that those arrested were planning the overthrow of the regime. Iraq
has also manifested nervousness over a neighbor who has countered Iraqi
aspirations for a Baghdad-dominated Fertile Crescent by creating the
ogre of a resurgent Syrian nationalism. Prime Minister Nuri al-Said has
not only expressed unwillingness to accept the results of the forthcoming
Syrian presidential. elections (in which Zaim's success is a foregone
conclusion) but has also gone so far as to mass Iraqi troops along the
Syrian border. These manifestations of the Arab world's sensitivity to
any disturbance of the status quo play directly into the hands of the
Israelis. The concentration of Iraqi troops against Syria, in particular,
leaves Syria more vulnerable than ever to attack by the recently reinforced
Israeli troops in the still-disputed Mishmar hay Yarden sector.
IRAN
Merger aftermath: The Shah is apparently trying to maize the recent
gendarmerie-army merger more palatable to his critics, who consider
the merger tantamount to abolishing the gendarmerie. The Shah has given
assurance that the capable chief of the Fendarmerie will not be retired,
and he has agreed to develop an "elite' gendarmerie which will retain
full police powers in carrying out the instructions of the civilian
ministries. He has also suggested that a planning group be set up consist-
ing of senior Iranian Army officers and senior US officers on the Gendarmerie
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6
ET
as well as the Army Mission to meet regularly with him. Although these
efforts by the Shah to make amends may foreshadow slight modifications
in the merger, they are probably calculated primarily to evokefrom the US,
which discouraged the merger move, a sympathetic reception to the recent
Iranian request for substantial direct aid.
NOTED IN BRIEF
The Turkish Government has indicated its determination to retain tight
control over internal security, despite the eitorts to strengthen Turkish
democratic institutions now going on by the amendments to the Turkish
Penal Code which it has now proposed. Designed for use against extreme
rightists and leftists, the amendments are very broadly defined; among
the offenses listed is that of spreading progaganda for such purposes as
"upsetting the country's economic system," "endangering basic social
principles," or weakening "the feeling of national unity."
The Turkish authorities have called upon the rrnenian community to
eleera new patriarch for the Gregorian Church in Tur.erthe present
acting patriarch has been involved in acrimonious disputes with other
elements in the church, and the government obviously wants to forestall
interference on the part of the supreme head of the church, who is resident
in Etchmiadzin, USSR.
The UN's short-range Arab refugee activities, which it was hoped would
reini7Tarthe rest of 1949, may have to betlted by 1 October for lack of
funds, according to UN Relief Director Griffis. Although the US has
authorized an $8 million Ar ab relief allocation (in addition to the $8 million
already provided), the enabling legislation now pending makes the use of
half this amount contingent on the discharge of their relief commitments by
other contributing nations--a point which is now in doubt. The UN refugee
relief authorities are now protiding a meagre diet of 1,800 calories a day
to more than 800,000 refugees, at an average cost of $2 a month per person.
Wigan
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6
The tJLSSR, one month atter agoreetsag to close its consulates int [Mt) has
rencastedly shut clown its posts af.ErciThiniczarrint ancirernaareahr
ti the eight remaining, some will probably remain open until :After the
lone Iranian consulate in the USSR at Baku Ins been closed in accordlince
with the reciprocal ar.rangernent
Crei'eet:T
i Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010058-6