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December 27, 2016
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May 9, 2013
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April 12, 1950
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/09 : CIA-RDP78-01617AO04700020015-2 VOL NEAR EAST/AFRICA DIVISION OFFICE OF RESORTS AND ESTIIVATES CENTRAL INTF LIGLNCE AGENCY APR 121950 NOTICE: This document is a working paper, not an official CIA issuance. It has been co-ordina- ted within ORE, but not with the IAC Agencies. It represents current thinking by specialists in CIA, and is designed for use by others engaged in similar or overlapping studies. The opinions expressed herein may be revised before final and official publication. It is intended solely for the information of tho addressee and not for further dissemination. do- LVVyyw.?_ _ NO CHANGE in Class. ^ ( DECLASSIFIED Class. CHAI1GZD T0: TS S DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Autb: DDA R'G. 77 1763 0 Date' 57 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/09 : CIA-RDP78-01617AO04700020015-2 NEAR FAST/AFRICA DIVISION INTELLIGENCE SUNNNARY For Week Ending 12 April 1950 TABLE OF CONTEPPPS Tito remains cool . . . . . . . . . 1 Yugoslavia against closer ties with present Greek Government Where the parties stand . . . . . . . . I Opposition does not call for drastic changes in policy If Bayor wins . . . . . . 2 Top Democratic leadership experienced and apparently capable The Mansur Cabinet . . . . . . . . . .3 How much it will accomplish is problematical Noted in Brief Turkey, Lebanon, Somalia, Iran, India-Pakistan . . . . . . .8 aew--AM T Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/09 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700020015-2 Tito remains cool: The chances for an early improvement of Yugoslav-Greek relations, specifically with regard to re- opening the Salonika-Belgrade rail line, have been sharply reduced by post-election developments in Greece.. Tito's recent statement that he was prepared to cooperate with a Plastiras Government under certain conditions obviously does not apply to the present Venizelos Cabinet, which the Yugoslav press has severely attacked for its dependence on rightist support. Although Tito would be cautious in any event about developing closer relations with Greece, he undoubtedly feels it politically unwise to modify his pre- sent cool, critical attitude toward Greece unless some govern- ment free of "monarcho-fascist" influence emerges. With the formation of such a government, Tito would probably feel justified in resuming at least limited economic ties with Greece. Where the Parties stand: An examination of the platform of Turkey's major parties indicates fairly clearly that the country's domestic and foreign policies will continue without startling changes even if the opposition Democratic Party (which has recently suffered from internal dissension) does unexpectedly succeed in upsetting the ruling People's Republi- can Party at the national elections four weeks- hence. Turkey's presoat foreign policies have not only the wholehearted sup- port of the Democrats but also the backing of the Nation Party, the only other party which has even an outside chance of winning many seats, if any at all.. In the domestic field, opposition denunciation of the government for allegedly un- constitutional and high-handed actions in violation of civil liberties has recently become noticeably more moderate in tone, doubtless because the government has taken such criticism to heart and put into effect a number of the reforms demanded by Turkey's newly-formed opposition parties. While both the major parties claim to champion the cause of individual enterprise in economic affairs, it is manifest that state capitalism will be retained in Turkey whichever wins. Probably the Democrats would go somewhat farther and faster than the PRP in giving Turkish private capital a limited chance to become productive and nationally beneficial. Ti? leader Bayar has suggested that an atmosphere be created which will prove helpful to private enterprise, check allegedly extravagant governmental operation of the etatist system, and correct .:ORbT 2. the abuses of what he regards as an irresponsible and inef- ficient bureaucracy. In rebuttal, government spokesmen point to the great promise of national economic rehabilitation now discernible under ECA-supported programs, for which the PRP understandably claims all the credit it can, and counter-charge that the DP speaks in generalities and has nothing specific to offer. Insofar as one issue is concerned--labor--the accusation is unjust: the DP firmly demands that labor be given the right to strike, as against the equally positive government view that, under beneficent PRP leadership and in view of Turkey's proximity to a large and menacing neighbor, to grant labor the right to strike now would be both unnec- essary and dangerous. Both parties appear to feel some legitimate apprehension lest tbslem religious sentiment be used by the somewhat inchoate and immoderate Nation Party as bait to catch votes. Nation Party spokesmen might well accuse the PEP of nou going far enough in its recent relaxation of rigid state control over religion in a laicized nation and thus pick up votes among the faithful, notably in provinces near the southern border. Such appeals to the electorate trill have to be care- fully worded, however, if HP speakers wish to avoid the long arms of stern Turkish law. Controversy concerning the use or suppression of vio- lence has not died down, particularly since President InSn{l is making it a major theme of his election speeches. InBnf's warnings against violence have evoked promises by Bayar, at least, that the Democrats will be law-abiding. In the last analysis, however, much will depend upon how carefully local officials--particularly those who favor the government party--, resist any temptation they any have to tamper with the ballots. Although the Turk has been accustomed to being pushed around (provided it is done by duly constituted authorities in what he accepts as a proper and customary manner) he has now been told by both the government and opposition that mishandling of his electoral privileges this time would be most improper. If it happens, he will object most strenuously. If Bavar wins: Since there is a possibility that the opposi- tion Democratic Party may win the forthcoming national elections-- although all US observers so far have reported that the govern- ment party will almost certainly stay in power--the question arises as to how well the Democrats could conduct the nation's affairs. The answer, based largely upon the record of the OP-W-0 s~ET Sk? ?,rT 3. party's top leaders, is that they are probably capable of doing a good job, although doubtless they would make mistakes and would have considerable difficulty at first in finding efficient men for all the major and minor posts that would have to be filled. Celal Boyar, the Democratic leader, is a former Prime Sinister, one of Turkey's outstanding adminis- trators, and, incidentally, one of the very few former pro- minent politicos in Turkey who was once a member of parlia- ment under the defunct imperial Ottoman regime still active in political affairs. As a cabinet minister in the early days of the Republic, and as the first head of one of the most powerful state-owned "banks," Boyar played an outstanding role in the creation of the Turkish system of state capitalism-- which some observers very mistakenly appear to believe he now intends to destroy. Fuat BBprall, a potential Democratic foreign minister (or even prime minister if Boyar should prefer the presidency), is one of Turkey's leading figures in the fields of literature and history and a member of the Ottoman Empire's most farovs family of statesmen. Adnan benderes, who would probably got the principal economic post in the government, is a wealthy landovnet from Western Anatolia who has been his party's chief spokccrosai on financial and economic matters in the National Assembly for the past four years. Another prospective cabinet member is Rofik Woraltan, the fourth of the quadrumvirate of deputies who founded the Democratic Party, chile the veteran Refik Ince, who has become prominent in the party although not at present a member of the Assembly, might possibly be given the post of Yknister of Justice, one he held during the nationalist struggle for independence before the proclamation in 1923 of the Turkish Republic. What would happen if the D.mocrats won and if Bayer chose to be prime minister rather than president is more difficult to predict. One possibility is that the presidency might be offered to Ali Fuat Cebesoy, who was one of the founders of the republic, has held cabinet rank, and has presided over the National Assembly. Cebesoy, although not a member of the Democratic Party, recently resigned from the government party and, if a high enough position were offered him, might presumably be coaxed into accepting it. Cebesoy's occupancy of the top-renkin- position would be in keeping with Turkey's military tradition,inasmuch as he is a retired army general with a brilliant record of military leadership in World War I and in the War of Independence. The Mansur Cabinet: Just what the Ahnsur Government trill accomplish is problematical. The recently formed cabinet consists mostly of seasoned veterans of Iran's political marry-go-round chosen primarily for proved political ability, althouh they are, with few exceptions, men of good reputation. A balance to Prima Minister Nansur's opportunism nay well be provided by Foreign Minister Hosein Ala, especially in Irano- Soviet relations. Ala is the ou,,standing member of the new cabinet. As ambassador in Washington, he worked diligently to strengthen Iran's relations with the West, and he may be expected to demand full authority in the conduct of Iran's foreign relations. The Prime Minister himself has executive ability, but he has a reputation for corruptness and is not likely to institute reforms necessary for permanent economic and social betterment. Unless the Shah, who is apparently entirely responsible for M3nsur's appointment, presses Mansur to act, the government my fall into a state of political inertia, as previous governments have done. Moreover, since Xensur is a "Shah's nan," the Shah's own prestige, which has been declining as economic deterioration continues, will suffer further if he permits the bhnsur Government to flounder. The death of Z rshal Fevzi Cakmk is particularly unfortunate from the viewpoint of the Ration Party, which has thus been deprived in the middle of the election campaign of the great prestige of having Turkey Is respected and only Nhrshal as its nominal leader. Unless some other national figure can be persuaded to accept the post, Hikmet Bayur (founder and real leader of the party) is likely to take over the party's titular leadership himself. The end of the strW_ at the Tripoli r~-fine of the Iraq Petroleum Company IPC was accomplished on 3 April. The strike was touched off by a report that 1,000 of the 4,000 workers were to be discharged. Moreover, the IPC union members objected strongly to the employment of Palestinian Arab refugees and British personnel formerly connected with the Haifa refinery. The Lebanese and Palestinian workers have apparently resolved their difficulties, but Arab employees remain aligned against the 400 British workers. Although the IPC union is non-Communist and the strikers do not appear to have been influenced by Communist labor groups, agitation against the British, particularly in the oil industry, is in keeping with the local Com mist line,. Lebanese Communists nay be expected to exploit this xenophobic tendency and in- croasing uneuzployment. Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/09 : CIA-RDP78-01617AO04700020015-2 The transfer of the administration of So is (formerly Italian Somaliland from the UK to Italy took place without incident on 1 April. Little friction is expected to develop between the new administration and the native population; the Italians will probably make every effort to conduct a model administra- tion and to improve the lot of the Somalis, and even the explosive Somali Youth League has adopted a "wait and see" policy toward the administration. Nevertheless, the unsettled border between Ethiopia and Somalia is a potential source of danger in view of conflicting Italian, s hiopian, and Somli interests in the area. Former Iranian Prime Minister Qavam, despite his age and ill health, appears determined to re-enter the Iranian political arena. For some months Qavam has allegedly been conniving with Tudeh Party members in Paris, and he recently sent a letter to the Shah strongly challenging any attempt on the part of the latter to obtain veto power over parliament. Should Qavam, who still has a considerable following in Iran, be permitted to return to Tehran, he my well attempt to regain political control of the country by opportunistically solicit- ing the support of Tudeh as he did in 1946. His return to Tshran, which the Shah will probably endeavor to prevent, might produce a serious political crisis in Iran. The successful outcome of the Nehru-Liaguat All than talks gives rise to the hope of a general improvement in Indo- Pakistan relations. The accord reached apparently applies only to the minority problem in East and West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura, and not to the whole of both countries as the Pakistanis would undoubtedly have preferred because of the steady flow of refugees into western Pakistan from Uttar. Pradesh and other nearby areas. It is in the states mentioned by the accord, however, that the communal situation had be- come most critical, and honest implementation by both govern- ments will greatly reduce the likelihood of developments which could result in warfare. The success of tha two leaders in reaching a mutually satisfactory agreement on so tense a subject can in itself be expected to encourage negotiations on other matters of serious dispute. An agreement between I dinn d P s an s_ has been reported which would make 00,000 bales of Pakistani jute available to India, with Pakistan receiving juLe goods and other items in return. These reports would seem to indicate that commercial interests in the two countries, rather than the governments, are taking the initiative in an effort to break the trade stalemate existing between India and Pakistan since devaluation of the Indian rupee. Any agreement of this kind must have the sanction of the respec- tive governments, and it is possible that the recent talks between the Prime Ministers may have laid the groundwork for favorable official consideration of the proposals initiated by the jute trade. If a jute agreement is reached, it could be the forerunner of agreements among other trade associa- tions and the means of ending the trade impasse which has had such serious effects on the econony of both countries. el- ~-V ET Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/09 : CIA-RDP78-01617AO04700020015-2