THE CURRENT SITUATION IN CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A006000020021-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Sequence Number: 21
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Release 2006/11/06: CIA-RDP78-01617AO06000020021-6
26 January 1949
THE CU E1 T :SITUATION IN C ElftNA
The Chinese Communists will probably soon estab-
lish a government which will have a better claim than
any Nationalist group to de facto recognition as the Govern-
ment of China and which will sees; de Sure recognition.
Organized Nationalist military resistance on a national
scale, has been destruyc and the final outcome of the civil
war is no longer in doubt. Although the elimination of
anti-Communist resistance in south and west China and
in Taiwan is inevitable, abstacles of distance, terrain, and
poor communications may require an extended period of
Communist effort.
Chiang Kai-shek's "retirement" has left the Nanking
Government little bargaining power with which to negotiate
a favorable peace scitieraent with the C vmmunists who are
continuing to a Bert unremiting military pressure on Nom.
The capitulation r the :Kank tg Government or the complete
failure of its peace ef-Wris-.will probably be followed byi~ce-
-hewed resistance hyYM large nunnber c Na O Ut leaders
who have little chance cA surviving under a Communist regime.
All evidence indicates that some of these,wil fo -new
Nationalist center cc a rt,-C6msnunist resistance in south
China mid that Cb hzrg Kai-shek will Probably emerge from
"retirement" to provide the necessary leadership. Such a
development is suggested by: (a) the large-scale withdrawal.
of Nationalist military supplies and material resources to
southeast China and Taiwan; and (b) the reshuffling of key
officials In the area in order to place authority in the hands
of persons definitely luj l to Chiang. The probable re-emerg-
ence of Chiang, who would still retain the title of President
as well as the support -); many officials in the present Natioaal
Government, would permit his regime to claim continuing
international recog1tion. This Nationalist group, convinced
that World War IIa is iremvitable, would contixnue to hope for
suffibient foreign airs t(i resist t e.Communists.-
Approved For Release 2006/11/06: CIA-RDP78-01617AO06000020021-6
 Approved For Release 2006/11k0@t
.~IA-RDP78-01617A006000020021-6
/'' - TOP CRET
Despite Chi;'!?4 retir st, the communists still
regard him as their prig: al qty. Current C:crivuuatist
propsgundu accus Me tI3 vKi tie Kuck (,I iNlc4tjvg
to build up sce lh Ctdna tvad Ta vgAu as bases frcnn hick
"to destroy the re ohttr a.'" Ca nwilst denuae aiou rA
Chiang's retirement 99 It to alr*L man over inspired by
the US also "meals tbo gew lnn v oucers d the C rW mu j
over Chiaang's pros ecb , With Ufo' aid, for delaying the real I.,
satiaxt of the C(}nzutun-st; ztgr t for estabiishir g coalrol
over all China.
TOP S'RET
Approved For Release 2006/11/06: CIA-RDP78-01617A006000020021-6