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PDF icon CIA-RDP78-01617A006000020021-6.pdf115.87 KB
Approved For Release 2006/11/06: CIA-RDP78-01617AO06000020021-6 26 January 1949 THE CU E1 T :SITUATION IN C ElftNA The Chinese Communists will probably soon estab- lish a government which will have a better claim than any Nationalist group to de facto recognition as the Govern- ment of China and which will sees; de Sure recognition. Organized Nationalist military resistance on a national scale, has been destruyc and the final outcome of the civil war is no longer in doubt. Although the elimination of anti-Communist resistance in south and west China and in Taiwan is inevitable, abstacles of distance, terrain, and poor communications may require an extended period of Communist effort. Chiang Kai-shek's "retirement" has left the Nanking Government little bargaining power with which to negotiate a favorable peace scitieraent with the C vmmunists who are continuing to a Bert unremiting military pressure on Nom. The capitulation r the :Kank tg Government or the complete failure of its peace ef-Wris-.will probably be followed byi~ce- -hewed resistance hyYM large nunnber c Na O Ut leaders who have little chance cA surviving under a Communist regime. All evidence indicates that some of these,wil fo -new Nationalist center cc a rt,-C6msnunist resistance in south China mid that Cb hzrg Kai-shek will Probably emerge from "retirement" to provide the necessary leadership. Such a development is suggested by: (a) the large-scale withdrawal. of Nationalist military supplies and material resources to southeast China and Taiwan; and (b) the reshuffling of key officials In the area in order to place authority in the hands of persons definitely luj l to Chiang. The probable re-emerg- ence of Chiang, who would still retain the title of President as well as the support -); many officials in the present Natioaal Government, would permit his regime to claim continuing international recog1tion. This Nationalist group, convinced that World War IIa is iremvitable, would contixnue to hope for suffibient foreign airs t(i resist t e.Communists.- Approved For Release 2006/11/06: CIA-RDP78-01617AO06000020021-6 Approved For Release 2006/11k0@t .~IA-RDP78-01617A006000020021-6 /'' - TOP CRET Despite Chi;'!?4 retir st, the communists still regard him as their prig: al qty. Current C:crivuuatist propsgundu accus Me tI3 vKi tie Kuck (,I iNlc4tjvg to build up sce lh Ctdna tvad Ta vgAu as bases frcnn hick "to destroy the re ohttr a.'" Ca nwilst denuae aiou rA Chiang's retirement 99 It to alr*L man over inspired by the US also "meals tbo gew lnn v oucers d the C rW mu j over Chiaang's pros ecb , With Ufo' aid, for delaying the real I., satiaxt of the C(}nzutun-st; ztgr t for estabiishir g coalrol over all China. TOP S'RET Approved For Release 2006/11/06: CIA-RDP78-01617A006000020021-6