Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
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Document Creation Date: 
December 21, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 30, 2008
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Publication Date: 
February 1, 1950
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PDF icon CIA-RDP78-01617A006100060034-7.pdf177.71 KB
{ L t' t t5 i Z tl Approved For Release 2008/06/30: CIA-RDP78-01617AO06100060034-7 2425 1221 TOP SECRET GENERAL 1 . Reported Soviet militaz y preparations in Austria - -US Ambassador Johnson in Rio de Janeiro reports that the Brazilian Minister in Vienna has been informed by Austrian Foreign Minister Gruber that he is "absolutely sure" the Soviet command in Vienna began about twenty days ago military preparations which indicate the USSR is planning large-scale military action.. In support of his conviction, Gruber stated that- (a) new strategic points in. Austria have been occupied by considerable Soviet forces; (b) large quantities of modern materiel and equipment are continuously arriving at Soviet garri- sons; and (c) Soviet lines of communication are being carefully protected by new contingents of selected troops. Gruber also assured the Brazilian Minister that he is ex- pecting momentarily a Soviet "surprise" in Europe, not excluding the possibility of the opening of hostilities in some sector. (CIA Comment- CIA has no reliable information justifying the belief that the USSR is planning large -scale military action in Europe in the immediate future. CIA believes, however, that the preponderance of Soviet mili- tary strength in Europe and stringent security measures in the Soviet sphere provide the USSR with the capabilities for initiating military operations with little or no advance information becoming available to the Western Powers.) 20 Increased Communist pressure in Southeast Asia predicted-- US Ambassador Kirk in Moscow suggests that the recently concluded Sino-Soviet Treaty prepares the way for these two principal partners in World Communism to assume in the near future "militant initiative in Southeast Asia to a maxi- mum degree short of open war," The Ambassador believes Dn.curne: t NO- State Dept. review completed Class. ^ C..": e TO: TS S a c~ , ~x A?- 77 17 '16 3 Auth: ~1978 By-. TOP E T Date: Approved For Release 2008/06/30: CIA-RDP78-01617AO06100060034-7 Approved For Release 2008/06/30: CIA-RDP78-01617AO06100060034-7 TOP SECRET that Stalin and Mao probably estimate that C ommunist expansion In Southeast Asia in, the near future is both militarily and politically feasible. Kirk considers Burma and Indochina to be the prime targets in. Southeast Asia because their inclusion in the Communist sphere would advance Communist forces toward the goal of world domina- 'Lion and because these countries; plus Thailand, would pro- vide China with a solution to its food problem. (CIA Comment- CIA concurs in the above estimate of Soviet intent in Southeast Asaa0) 3. Dutch attitude on New Guinea--US Embassy Jakarta trans- mits the opinion of Netherlands High Commissioner Hirsch- feld that failure to accede to Indonesian requests for sover- eignty over Dutch New Guinea at the forthcoming Dutch-" Indonesian conference will mean only `continued trouble for the Netherlands Government. The High Commissioner believes that the New Guinea question should be negotiated directly between the Netherlands and Indonesian governments and that the Dutch could participate "profitably and happily', in 'the development of. a New Guinea which had been "peace- fully" transferred to Indonesia, Meanwhile, US Embassy Canberra reports that the Australian Government probably will not follow 'through with its plan to approach the Indo- nesian Government regarding Australian interests in New Guinea 4. Views on Asian union--US Ambassador Stanton in Bangkok t;r?ansmits the conclusion of the Bangkok Conference of US Chiefs of Missions that there is "an unfortunate lack" of interest in a regional association. among Asian and South Approved For Release 2008/06/30: CIA-RDP78-01617AO06100060034-7 Approved For Release 2008/06/30: CIA-RDP78-01617A006100060034-7 TOP SECRET Pacific states. Burma, Ceylon, India, Japan, and Pakistan reportedly regard such a regional association coolly; Indo- nesia prefers to work alone for the time being; Australia is unenthusiastic; New Zealand wants only a Pacific pact with the US, Australia, and the UK. Korea strongly favors an association and Thailand is interested. All the states (except Korea) are opposed to an open anti-Communist bloc or a military alliance TOP SE ` tT Approved For Release 2008/06/30: CIA-RDP78-01617A006100060034-7