CIA TRAINING IN ANALYTICAL METHODOLOGY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-06215A000200040002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 2, 2000
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 15, 1974
• Content Type: MEMO

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m1 .. ve
15 January 197+
25X1A
SUBJECT : CIA Training in Analytical Methodology
25X1A
25X1A
1. The attached report of subject training within the Agency
is part of a Community survey conducted by a former
CIA employee, a little over a year ago. Since one of the disciplines
recently identified for Community review is Analytical Methodology
training, it would, be very helpful to us if you would have this re-
port reviewed and updated in order to preclude our walking back through
previously trodden ground. I an requesting similar action from INR and
DIA. Once we've, received the updated reports and reviewed them to-
gether with materials presently being compiled by a
Staff consultant who is working on Analytical Methodologies being used
by external sources, we'll then commence a series of Community meetings
to discuss the state of the art and new approaches which might enhance
Community capability in this vital area.
2. I would much appreciate receiving an updated version of the
attached by 15 February 1974.
25X1A
E:_: , 1t,JPLyET CL LIY_ f4?1s,/
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 ANNEX A
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Central Intelligence Agency
Training in Analytical Methodologies
For Intelligence Production Analysts
A. Introduction
1. The Central Intelligence Agency provides training for its
analysts on several levels and at different stages in the analyst's
career. This annex will describe the types of training given to acquaint
newcomers with the analytical problems encountered in the production
offices of CIA and the types of intelligence writing which they will
be called on to produce, and will describe the training available to
some of the more experienced analysts later in their careers which can
involve relevant new analytical techniques. This discussion will not
deal with the entire range of training available to CIA employees, but
will focus only on training involving techniques applicable to the
.intelligence production process.
B. Initial Training of Production Analysts
2. Production analysts entering on duty at the present time
are either direct-hire personnel who are assigned immediately to
production offices, or Career Trainees recruited for eventual place-
ment in a component not determined at the time of their recruitment.
Direct-hire personnel are selected on the basis of their background,
including area or subject knowledge, and experience with the type
of subject matter with which they will be dealing in their new job.
These people are given less initial formal training than the Career
Trainees.
3. Shortly after their entry on duty, both direct--hire and
Career Trainee recruits are sent to the Office of Training (OTR) for
a four week "Intelligence and World Affairs" course which has the
following objectives:
a. Introduction to the fundamentals of intelligence
and the relationship of the intelligence process- to U.S. foreign.
policy and national security.
b. Presentation of an overview of CIA and the relation-
ship of CIA's organization and functions to U.S. intelligence
services. .
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c. An exploration of problems related to the USSR,
the People's Republic of China, and the Third World as
intelligence targets.
4. No specific training in analytical techniques is given in
this course, although much time is devoted to talks by representatives
of the various CIA production offices on the substantive problems with
which they are concerned. There is a brief introduction to analysis
as performed in current and estimative intelligence writing and such
specialties as photo and traffic analysis. Direct-hire analysts normally
are given no training other than this initial four week course at this
point in their careers.
5. The Career Trainee is given a much longer indoctrination
in Agency organization, problems and methods than the direct-hiree.
Currently about 60 Career Trainees enter the Agency each year, and
their overall indoctrination and testing and evaluation consume several
months before they are assigned for permanent duty with a component of
the Agency. Two Career Trainee courses are given each year and include
the "Intelligence Production Course" for those Trainees (currently about
40 percent of the Career Trainees) who are destined for duty in the
production offices.
6. This OTR course is full time for eight weeks and is intended
to familiarize the student with the functions of the D-rectorate of
Intelligence and with the problems of producing and obtaining the
necessary coordination from various finished intelligence units
of the Directorate of Intelligence and other Agency and non-Agency
offices. The student is given personal contact with working analysts
and office managers, the opportunity to learn from the presentations
of case studies by experienced analysts, and the challenge of carrying
out a research project.
7. One week of the Intelligence Production Course involves
training at the Information Science Center of OTR at which the Career
Trainees are introduced to information and decision theory and are
shown how they might utilize computers in their analyt';cal work.
Lectures and exercises are given in intelligence applications of
probability, statistics, decision trees, expected value, operations
research, computer terminal operations, Bayes' Theorem, correlation
and regression analysis, network analysis, linear programming, queuing
theory, and computer storage and retrieval. Obviously, this one-week
course is not designed to provide comprehensive training in such
analytical methodologies, but it is intended to make CTs aware of some
of the newer ideas and techniques in information processing for their
future use as intelligence analysts.
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8. Finally, the CTs are given a one-week course in the
"Techniques of Intelligence Writing" which. endeavors to familiarize
them with major intelligence writing and reporting concerns of the
DDT. The course deals with samples of key intelligence production
in selected DDI offices, using actual writing assignments based on
intelligence information from these offices. The course also stresses
the role and mechanism of interagency coordination of the finished
intelligence product.
presently limited by small faculty size, space problems and in .its
access to computer terminals.
C. . Post-Entry Training by OTR
9. After entry on duty as a production analyst, further formal
training in analytical techniques is very much dependent upon the
type of analysis an employee is called upon to perform, the needs and
time constraints of the office to which he is attached, and his own
perceived needs for further training. The several ways in which a CIA
production analyst can receive additional training in analytical
techniques are outlined below.
10. During the coming year, the Information Science Center (ISC)
of OTR will conduct three courses in analytic techniques for production
analysts and supervisors. This is the first year in w ich CIA will
have responsibility for the ISC, which was established and originally
operated by the Defense Intelligence Agency. The ISC program is
a. Functions Course
This course, titled "A- 4cati-on of Information Science
Intelligence Functions," is a four-week effort (which i-s-t be
extended to about six weeks),'nearly all of which addresses
problems of intelligence production. The course 's designed to
"introduce career intelligence professionals to the basic elements
of the interdisciplinary field of Information Scir2nce." Students
are taught to use and "converse with" a computer terminal as a
basic tool in their work. They._are given a "fundi}mental knowledge
of computer systems, operations research, systems analysis and
design, probability.theory, information storage and retrieval
systems, modeling gaming and simulation, etc." Time is devoted
to exercises and case studies in which the students gain experience
in applying such techniques as linear programing, queuing, network.
analysis, correlation and regression, etc. to an actual, logically
synthesized intelligence problem.
The objectives are to familiarize the students with the
terminology and basic techniques of information science; to develop
their capability to identify and define problems of professional
intelligence interest by using information science techniques,
and to solve such problems at the elementary level; to improve
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student capabilities to communicate with information science
professionals on more difficult problems and requirements;
to encourage the students to.pursue the development of their
own and their agency's information science.-resources and
capabilities; and to provide a wider range of rational choices
to professional intelligence officers in the analysis, problem
solving, and decision-making tasks of their functional areas
of responsibility through an introduction to the basic tools
and language of information science. This course is believed
to be the only formal training course conducted in the United
States which applies the information science methodologies
directly to intelligence tasks, using live raw intelligence
information.
Enrollment is limited to46 students, of whom
a-re from CIA production offices, seen f- om NSA, f-ire-f-rom DIA,
and twe -fii the military services.
b. Survey of Intelligence Information Systems
This is a three-week course for intelligence professionals
in grades GS-09 to GS-15. It provides an overview of the infor-
mation and intelligence systems of the intelligence community, with
special emphasis on automated ;and/or computer assisted systems.
It is thus intended to acquaint analysts with the intelligence
community's information system capabilities.
c. -Management-Science for Intelligence
This is a one-week course for managers %o emphasize the
application of computers, information science, sy!;tems analysis
and Operations to the management of intelligence activities.
The course also covers the application of analytical techniques
to substantive intelligence production, and OTR is, hopeful that
one of its side effects will be to persuade managers that the
rapidly burgeoning field of information science has across-the-
board implications in intelligence problem solving.
d./ Mid-Career Course
t k?
OTR coIiducts the "Mid-Career Executive Development
Course" for 34 If four times Oer year. The objective of
this' six-weeks/course- is`to provide an opportunity for promising
officers at tfi ?e mid-career level from all components of CIA to
widen their uhderstandi ng of management practices, current
developments'and problem areas, both in CIA and in the intelligence
community as a whole, and major issues of concern to the United
States Government, primarily in the international field. Beginning
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this year a portion of this course - how much is still uncertain -
will be conducted at the Information Science Center to give the
students an introduction to the:new analytical techniques. It is
planned that about half of thee-period with the JSC will be devoted
to application of these tech ques to intelligence production and
half to their use in manage nt. The inten-Ion is to show the
students the applications nd limitationsf techniques such as
network analysis, decisio theory and linear programming.
e. Senior Seminar
An introduction to advanced:analytical methodologies
also is now included in the Senior Seminar, a nine-week course
conducted'at irregular interv ls, which is open to selected
individuals in Grades G S-15 nd above. The Information Science
Center portion of the Senior 'rinar will put somewhat more emphasis
on the use of information sci ces in management than is the
case for the Mid-Career Cour$e, but about 40 percent of the
period will be devoted to the ap lication of these techniques
to the production of intei ligenc
D. Training in CIA Components Other than OTR
.11. CIA components, other than the Office of Training, conduct
on-the-job programs and formal courses to meet special'zed internal
requirements. On-the-job training can be described as an informal
apprenticeship with instruction and close supervision ' Drovided.by
senior analysts to new or junior employees actually en,;aged in desk
work. In more formal component training, the Office o-.` Training may
contribute elements to spscific training programs and Courses, correlate
OTR courses to provide an integrated program with component efforts, and
give advice and assistance to components i.n initiating and conducting
courses.
a. Office of Computer Services. OCS provides training
in the use of Agency computers and software for a1 CIA components
having a need for training in existing CIA computer programs.
The primary training is in the basic ADEPT course - 15 weeks of
full-time schooling in computer programming. Students are
taught two different programming languages and arE~ provided
thorough exposure to IBM operating systems and hardware. Programming
techniques and documentation standards are also covered. For
users or potential users, at any grade level, OCS also conducts
three-day orientation courses on automatic data processing
systems, particularly in their application to the Agency's
management of information. The instruction is intended to
arouse curiosity about computers and to stimulate thinking
about what ADP might do for a wide variety of users. Six courses
are normally conducted each year, with each class accommodating
about 50 students.
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b. Office of Economic Research. OER currently conducts
a 16-week course once each year, entitled "Introduction to
Computer Applications in Economic Intelligence," which is
designed to familiarize OER analysts with FORTRAN programming
and its application to problems in economic intelligence. About
20 students, some of whom are from the Office of Strategic
Research, are accommodated in each class. The first two
weeks of instruction, given by the Office of Computer Services,
is an introduction to FORTRAN: the remainder is devoted to
introduction of Massager and Databank, index numbers and growth
problems, regression analysis, matrix manipulation for input-
output, and job control language. The intent is to show how
analysts can apply ADP and quantitative methods to their
problems in economic intelligence.
c. Office of Strategic Research. OSR is increasingly
using computer assistance in its analytical work. OSR analysts
receive basic computer indoctrination in courses given by the
Office of Computer Services, including ADP orientation, programming
languages, the OCS Interactive System, and the IBM 360 Operating
System. Such training enables them to use OSR's large data
system (QUICKTRAK), the strategic cost analysis model (SCAM),
the arsenal exchange model (AEM), and several other OSR computer
files and research tools.
d. The Directorate of Science and Technology-. DDS&T
sponsors"a five day course called "Operations Research, Systems
Analysis and Automa!:ion in Control of Large Systems," currently
under contract to Wiley Systems, Incorporated. This course is
intended to acquaint a broad spectrum of Agency analysts and
managers from all directorates with the possible applications
of the information sciences to specific and general intelligence
problems. It is not intended to produce operations researchers,
but to create an atmosphere of receptivity to the expanded use
of the information sciences throughout the Agency. The course
accommodates about 28 students and will be held five times in
the coming year. The stated objectives-of the course are as
follows:
"l. To cirect thinking about complex, large-scale
systems problems in a manner which is structured,
logical and objective, which complements existing
viewpoints gained through experience and intuition
and which balances sweeping generalizations and
overpowering detail.
2. To modify parochial points of view about complex,
large scale systems problems developed as a
natural result of the unavoidable specialized
nature of many jobs.
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3. To present justifications and rational means for
recognizing and adapting to the interactions
between human resources and automation technology
as well as relating to them as separate entities.
4. To provide more rigorous definitions of systems
problems in order to create manageable approaches
to difficult problems having no ready-made solutions
and to distinguish between areas where intuitive
judgment must be applied and where quantitative-
computer techniques are possible.
5. To provide bases for assessing the performance
effectiveness of complex, large-scale systems in
the light of available techniques and technology.
6. To examine the validity of systematic, quantifiable
and automated approaches to problem-solving in
a climate where fresh points of view and diverse
values are stated, compared and judged."
The course includes lectures on probability and statistics, the nature
of systems analysis, systems theory and development,. operations research,
linear programming, network analysis, dynamic programming, game theory,
queuing theory, simulation, applications of operations research,-computer
and information systems and applications, cybernetics, technological
forecasting, and dynamic modeling of large-complex systeiis.
E. External Training
12. Training of CIA production analysts outside tha Agency is
conducted both through inter-agency programs of the U.S. Government
and at non-Government facilities. CIA sends personnel f'.?om intelligence
production offices to courses in the information science; conducted by the
U.S. Civil Service Commission, the U.S. Department of Ag;^iculture,.
the Brookings Institution, and various universities, private corpo-
rations and non-profit analysis centers. The instruction ranges from
one or two-day seminars to full-time university attendance..
13. The majority of the students attend courses involving
familiarization with computers and computer programming, but available
records indicate that during the past five years some 70 production
analysts and managers have attended 28 courses involving analytical
techniques, information theory, systems analysis and the like. As
might be expected, more than 90 percent of the attendance at external
training courses involving analytical methodologies has been from
production offices dealing with statistical and "hard science" infor-
mation, such as OSI, OER and OSR. In contrast, only four attendees
were identified with OCI, ONE and OBGI.
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14. Production analysts and managers at CIA, as they reach
Grade GS-14 or GS-15, may be selected to attend the National War
College or one of the service war colleges. The curricula at these
schools has included exposure of the students to systems analysis
and operations research techniques of at least potential application
to intelligence analytical tasks. The current trend is toward
providing more of such training at the war colleges.
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J. Systems Dynamics: Prin les Mq_AMkic at ions
This three-week course is designed to provide a
level of expertise in systems dynamics methodology
-evel which will enab le intelligence analysts, managers, and
others in fields appropriate for the methodology, to
confidently determine whether the methodology should be
employed in dealing with any particular problem. The
course consists of lectures in theory, case studies or
illustrative examples, and workshop practice in using
computer terminals and a time-sharing facility to
progress from simple to complex practical exercises in
applying the methodology.
Special Workshops
Special courses are designed and presented to
txaxx provide training in particular fields. A four-
week course, Information Science for Financial Managers,
is presented about once yearly for specialists in this
field. A second course, Infor mation Science for Imagry
Analysts, hssxbxex is in the late stages of development.
This ezaxzxzxUtxbxxpxexxnkedzx two-week course will be
presented twice a year. Other special coursed are currently
under consideration.
,g. COINS Workshop
I two-week course to provide analysts with a working
knowledge of the COINS system is prevrUt-ed approximately
ten times a year to Community classes of about twenty-
five each. The, basic structure of the system, the
files, and the empakexzkex bxzicexe1Kexakzmmxzm2xb1&ex
com liter terminal practices associated with the systemx
area p 1exextxdxz covered ;bk through classroom
lectures and actual practice in the syste
Sentdr, Seminar, Advanced Management,
as a part of many courses in OTR and the
School. These blocks of instruction vary from a few days
to two weeks in length depending on the course. In
general, some classroom exercises and actual practice in
applying the various methodologmes is included in these
verviews. The content varies considerably; topics are
selected which are most relevant to the objectives of
the course and the level of experience and interest of the
attendees.
ILLEGIB
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