LETTER TO DONALD P. GREGG FROM P. VANCE HYNDMAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78B02992A000100030004-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 2005
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: December 10, 1975
• Content Type: LETTER

it ,..k.,pprgcl,EcgrcRoiease 2006/11/07: CIA-RDP78B02992A00010003000#-IYa'48-k---?-
q _10,4, iNila /..,Avla C.
CAI t;'. JAM 55 P. P.AP4S.,..74,111111.9 *AO
I ?L -c.;-,/ U. I. i} IC?, kL.L.. VONEFIr IV. EASTEN, J ;.,1'115.
T.A1.-. 1,1;u:+14D, 1 i.X. 1,',,;)tictt Committn on niteitigente
?iiht_lktsi 1 .I AN, t LA. .
ot IlstDrcanti-Itital
p, Lilia5utrig,Lurt,ciz
Donald P. Gregg
Rview Staff
CentraL Intelligence Agency
Dear Mr. Gregg,
YCitrtivir: (?.44 27,5-9751
3-?3 9
December 10.. 1975
On page 4651 of the uncorrected version of Mr. George
Carver's testimony before this Committee on December 3, 1975, he
makes reference to an,11 Octoher_letter to the-Department of Defense._
Could you please furnish a copy of that le-teer for the Committee files?
On page 4652 of the same testimony, Mr: Carver mentions a
memorandum he wrote on the. 13 of October 1967 to Mr. Goulding of the
Department of Defense. Could you likwlse furnish that document.for the
Committee files?
On page 4673 of the same transcript, there is a refernce
to a briefing. ppper. Could you please furnish that paper for the
Committee files?
Additionnally, we would like to request any and all materials
prepared by, or used by, Mr. Carver in his meetings with the Senior
Advisory Group, and subsequently with the President, on March 25 and 26, .
1968. Likewise we would like to request any and all memoranda of conversation
drafted by Mr. Carver pursuant to his discussions on those two days.
Yours sincerely,
P. Vance Hyndman
for the Conunittee.
qt. \-1k1 9Z ql 33a
Approved For Release 2006/11/07: CIA-RDP78B02992A000100030004-0
Approved For Release 2006/11/07: CIA-RDP78B02992A000100030004-0
The following are corrections in the text of the 3 December
75 hearings before the House Select Committee on Intelligence.
Page 4651 - line 6 - On 13 October we took specific....
Page 4651 - line 14 - On 10 October they sent the
draft....
Page 4652 - line 2 - On the 13th of October.... Refers to
same letter as line 6 of Page 4651.
Page 4673 - line 17 - to hear the briefing I had given them.
Oral briefing by Mr. Carver from notes - no written text used.
Approved For Release 2006/11/07: CIA-RDP78B02992A000100030004-0
Approved For Release 2006/11/07: CIA-RDP78B02992A000106030004-0
STCQPY
Available
Approved For Release 2006/11/07: CIA-RDP78B02992A000100030004-0
Approved For Relecse 2006/11/0PPN=RD1r78B02992A01100030004-0
Nue
13 October 1967
MENE.ORANDUM, FOR:. The HonorztbleFiilip C-oulding
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs
SUBJ_FXT : Proposed MACV ?rose 'BrieLbstt on 1..3netny Ord.?r
of Battle
1. We havo carefully reviewed the proponed MACV p eve briefing
011 onorny ord? ? of battle attAched to M. ITen'xin's me-mo of 10 October 1%7.
hAve- tie riou a 3-tib ta. V:. '4tft 44:11sd prec *flu rfAl 1)roblerrgll with th-t: 10 Octob.-ftr ?
- version of this pri.,1:9-osed briefing and hence canikot z-t,71.pport it or concu)..
its use.,
Z. With regard to the anbstantive ismaea, -wei offer tl.lo following
a. Wo ha,ve no prehlerrag with the.I19, 000 firrure ?A f..,a for
the rezety,,r, forces though we bavo not seen the ,tvidence
methodology anp-porting the_ Fita,ternent that "revlar strength
peaked a,t 127.500 in ':iepternbc...,r 1966."
b. On administrative services, we Selieve the operative
sentence should indicate that the) US Covernizvont now estimates
that there are Iltt least 35,000 to 40, 000 Zull-tine -,?,erson.nol in
cAtimory. The draft briefing, 1:':lortrays the 35, !A0-40,000
fi,3ure AIT a. rtiinirnena -ma-Art-Atari-1 ranc. Wre...;ari it as a
minirnturs threubold, btzlif,,,fro the tyt1er ipersonn4.31
v3)! wellbe, higher, and are certAinth.X acidition,at larf2,
numb-orso inclividwAls perform aairrard$trative Ilipp-ort tasks
1/41At 171. 0 t e than CA31,-141
On the $uerrilins, we ea.nrk-->t accept the ?::4?tatement that
cur:rot-$.4* guerrilb. otretigth "is clearly down to betwf,en 70,000
and 90, COO with strong indications th the Actual figure I
Approved For Release 2006/11/07: CIA-RDP78B02992A000100030004-0
Approved For Release 2006/11/07 : ? PA'kRiiP:781302992A000100030004-0
Noir 'eier
cloler to he lower than the higher licnits of the estimate."
The last clause of that sentence is perticularly unacceptable.
The understanding reached in1,son &taring the recent CIA-
Diel.-INR-MACV order of battle discussions was that the
guar-villa strength is now probably (riot clearly) between
70, 000 and 90,000.
cl. We also cereeet accept the way in which the rest of
$.vhet lased to be called "irregular" forces -- i.e., the eel"-
defense. eecret self-defense, aesault youth and other ceeval
elements -- ire written off as "fifth column/eta" and 'fellow
travellers." This nals-st.stes the facts. Although we agree
that the self-defenso, secret self-defersse and assault youth
should not be Included in the military order of battle per as,
we feel that in the aggregate these elernente contribute a
greAt deal to ovaeail VC capabilitfts. rurtherreore, evidence
coutivtues to coene in showing that tbe VC 'make consider:
u;30of thee "irrep;ulart" and not infrocuantlyt'.1.81.3isrn thern
acttsal cc-bat tasks. We believe that any br1efin9; most be
canclid about theco VC eliemente and should generally follow the
narrative account of their etrength and fsneetion ed In
igon -- the text of which le attachod hereto.
o. On the political cedro, the neeesber u4 (75,000435,000)
is that Agrerea upon in .---'-zti8on but the ma-rat-or w3f1 not der-elope:I
in the manner outlined in your 10 October draft. This draft
suggests that the 21,3,, figure TA-as developed by ta17.ing the old
figure of 40,000 and adding political elements at hamlet level.
This is simply not tree. The 40,000 (actually 39.000) figure is
an old GYN figure in circulation long before our current defini-
tiopes of infrnetruetere were devoloped. It hears no historical
e),the r relatiorsehip to the new fieure.
3. Apart from these :natters of auktstance t"loro ere elements of
tx.m4ri. and procedare. in your 10 October draft with which we have considerable -
=difficulty.
P.. It is true that our neve order of battle figures derive
from greatly improved, though still Imperfect, intelligence
and do not reflect Any recant absoligte increase in the size of
-
n -
Approved For Release 2006/11/07: CIA-RDP78B02992A000100030004-0
I 3 (
Approved For Release 2006/11/07: CIA:RT:)1P0661f102992A000100030004-0
Niese ?110,
t'7e)rarnuniit /:cytee.;., Thin fact rzu-I th#) thou,-Ont that these
figures will be auL)ject....1d covi.Z1.1(?:14 yo,r14-,/
changes should be tho basic theme r.)f any press ',rioting.
The 10 October draft, however, overstates our present
degroe of coralidence in the figures for the Jall-rainistrativa
services, 3uerrillas and politicA.1 cadre. We are not this
confideent; in fact, we 'believe that new evidence will
probably turu up and raquire us to modify ther,o figuren.
U this occurs, the confidea tone or any such pre os
will be recallod with c?,nsiderable da.mage to our
b. The whole oropoeed treatment of the -i:pid irreulsr
and nosw guerrilla figure will be te,rn .apart by the Slig.ou
press corps. It sur;goats that we ?..lavo previously. over-
c4P.,teq:ar7 whereaA ex'ae:tly the reverse is
true. .Aa ther,--344vell tr:tovv, the olel "irrs:7)It2lar" flqure
of IOC, 000-12-0, 000 ,:ltan allegedly col-7-epos,Itl of ori-thira
gno7....-riiirt 3 and two-thi;eds self
Tbuu the prr:asgm will Ile/Love, with j-,,tstifig.:::Atiqn, that our old
"guerrilla" figure 1,,,mn ?a the order of 33, 000 E,A10. If
we up the ulLe:;tirnate, Aa we .ahoulc.1., to 70. GOO-9f.10, 000,
. thin ca.n b&rdly becalle4a downwArd ;AAAtat-nle-,,at.
c. Any a,tterupt to iln.-7hre the other cornponegA3thit tieva
to be carried irk the "IrreRul:Ar" category or %,vrite t'leret off
zAs unimportant fifth columnists will be consider by the
press (agaitx with justification) act :a clumsy pieco of dissimu-
lation.
(I. On the politicAl cadre, %Aft:sr b4 much b"..,tter
At-Eris:A not to Iurnu our ?:leliticalesitimate...1 with our
railit...ry order of 7...attle. data or o that -ve ',low have
a very firm n hanclie on this cornDonent of the Cornalunibt
AO:ors. The 75,000-n5.000 figure ci bc, Arlse3, if rleccItt57.ary,
but nhoula be wood as the number 7,et froirx a::-.917in,P, our
curront finition of "InfraPtructur,9," with the a,34ied
'rh.At this definition is is 3eriongi noe,1 1r--qinernt And her,fze
this nu:I-Aber is 7periuhable and zet i-?articularIy -neanin9,ful.
It uhoulti aloe be p?-)inted out thAt we a now t work on
- 3 -
Approved For Release 2006/11/07: Cl'A-RDP78B02992A000100030004-0
? Approved For Re?ase 2006/11/07: C1LROME02992A0t0100030004-0
time
2.0fining our definition of the various components of tbe
Communist political or:Tanization and hope to 1>ef able to
assign meaningful numbers to these co.m.p.eirtents as soon
as thin exorcise is corapieted. Then we do, this
75, C0040, 000 figure %rill dlaap-pcar.
4? lfre believe that the rzet effect of Any briefing based on. the
10 October draft would be to veesent aSeriiltX of alleged intelligoroe
judgments that could not be substantiated at this time aud would alot
certainly courpov.nd cmr credibility problems if they were presorted in
this forat. Whether or not any briefing in given and the precise language
to be used aro, at course, mAttors outside our ;Al r view and *nee that
will require consideration 214 high-est leveIs. We steangly recommend.
1%cmovor, that tha briefing outlined in yam.. 10 Octobor draft rxrt b-a given.
Georg-, A. Cxr, 3.
peciul Assistaut for Vietuamezes .Affaire
IGAC:lkp/330e-tober1967
lbutku
Original - Addreat4ee
1
Dioci
niown.
GAC Chrono
1 - VAS Chrono
1 - SVN OB File
/OCI
)DCl/ER
Srr
Approved For Release 2006/11/07: CIA-RDP78B02992A000100030004-0