RESPONSE TO INTERNAL REQUIREMENT UNDER NPIC PROJECT NO. 99738-6

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: NGA Records (Formerly NIMA)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78B04747A000400020002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 5, 2001
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 9, 1967
• Content Type: MF

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TCS 1260/67
9 January 1967
Copy No. /
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Technical Development Staff, NPIC
25X1 A ATTENTION
SUBJECT . Response to Internal Requirement Under
NPIC Project No. 99738-6
1. This memorandum is in response to subject requirement requesting a
review of several contract proposals on crop yield studies. The following
contract proposals were reviewed and recommendations are made with regards
to a PAG judgement of their respective technical approaches. An alternate
recommended solution follows the evaluations. The order in which they are
listed. does not indicate their final rating:
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Their stated. approach to include reviewing the available materials
and contacting experts in the field is a normal approach for scien-
tific investigation and would probably be done by any company work-
ing the contract. It is doubtful that suitable photography on
agriculture is available at the listed agencies. PAG would not
recommend this contractor.
This company has some experience in related fields. Its decision
to use photography from existing sources would probably not be
satisfactory. Their approach is reasonable; however, sample areas
would have to be carefully selected. Areas such as would
probably not be satisfactory due to the smaller size of available
plots as opposed to the larger plots in a single crop area.. PAG
would not recommend this contractor, however it would be acceptable;
if changes were made in the location of their sample areas.
Declass Review By
NIMA/DOD
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The sample area. selected is unsatisfactory for
reasons previously mentioned. Their genera approa.c to the problem
is satisfactory. PAG would not recommend this contractor, however
with some changes this approach could be acceptable.
Their use of existing photography over test plots may give them
some indication but it is believed that test plots are generally
too small to derive photographic yield data. Their approach places
Although this firm appears quite quali-
fied PAG would not recommend them as it is doubtful that their solutions
would be applicable to KEYHOLE materials.
This company is vague in the actual indicators it would seek. As
previously cited it would probably not find the necessary photography
in existing files. Its area analog approach seems valid. PAG would
not recommend this contractor, however it would be acceptable.
The similar objects approach may have some promise but the proposal
is a bit vague in specifics. PAG would not recommend this contractor.
The possibility of crop identification and yield prediction through
use of microdensitometer is certainly worth trying. PAG has used and
is investigating this technique, however on a very limited basis. The
PAG would consider this proposal one of
the most promising, however numerous modifications should be made.
This program could result in techniques applicable to existing operational
photography. It is lacking in that it provides information after the fact
and would not provide good before harvest estimate, however it is well
within the state of the art.
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2. Of the proposals reviewed PAG would recommend
as most nearly qualified for this project. The program should be modified
to use, KEYHOLE materials (1) as well as, whereever feasible, project 25X1A
25X1 A - materials (2) and generally limit itself to black and white 25X1 D
2 5X1 D Other materials may show more promise but may not
be available as operational photography. An alternate solution to the
problem would 'be to conduct an inhouse project to develop techniques of yield
prediction. An outline project for such a project is included as Attachment I.
(1)/ It is understood that resolution targets are generally
emplaced in the midwest for each mission. The area
around these targets would probably be in agriculture
and thus offer one source of crop analysis photography.
25X1D (2)/ High altitude has been
obtained or is planned over agricultural areas in the
south and midwest. A copy of this should be made
available.
3. Prior to supporting any contractor or extensive inhouse effort on
this subject the PAG would suggest that a definitive statement of require-
ments be obtained from either or both CIA and or DIA. The PAG has been
able to respond to all stated requirements for crop analysis in the past
and may not require contractor assistance to respond to future requirements.
In any case no contract should be undertaken without a clear statement of
potential user requirements in writing followed by analysis of that require-
ment by NPIC PI elements to determine those areas which require further
research.
25X1A
Assistant for Photographic Analysis, NPIC
Distribution:
Cys 1&2 - CH/T&DS/NPIC
3 - IPO/PAG/NPIC
4 - GMD/PAG/NPIC
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ATTACHMENT I
Page 1
PRELIMINARY PROJECT OUTLINE
FOR CROP ANALYSIS EVALUATION
1. Personnel
Three photo interpreters of suitable background, i.e. PI experience
and a good knowledge of farming practices, should be assigned in support
of this recommended program. It is estimated that associated costs could
be realized for a. fraction of the monies designated in the NPIC budget for
a contract dealing with crop yield prediction. It would be desirable that
100% of their time would be applied to this project for expediency and
continuity, however, it could be worked in a manner similar to present
third phase exploitation (subsequent to priority first/second phase report-
ing).
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a. Photographic materials for this program could be drawn from
a variety of sources. Perhaps the areas around resolution targets,
which PAG understands are emplaced for each mission (generally in
could be used for study and the system programmed to
provide suitable
25X1A b. Photography from Project should be made available.
Also arrangements for the DOD to acquire high altitude training
photography over selected/designated plots should be made. It is
estimated that photography would probably not be suitable for a
complete study, however, the Department of Agriculture has some
materials now which would be of use. Ground truth should and
would have to be obtained through the Department of Agriculture,
CIA's office of contacts and/or by the working group.
3. Methodology
a. The project solution could be approached from two directions
simultaneously. The correlation of items and factors, other than
the crop image, that are associated with agriculture, as well as
the crop image, should be investigated to develop techniques of
yield estimation.
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b. The former approach should concentrate on such items
as storage and transportation facilities, time and rate of plant-
ing, harvesting type equipment and farming method used; crop
residue, i.e. straw, as well as other indicators evolving and
considered to be of significant value. A search for indicators
would be concentrated in areas where ground truth is available,
and to include open countries, as well as closed countries photo-
graphic reconnaissance collections, i.e. the Russian wheat failure
of 1963.
25X1 D
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metry analysis phase. 1 1 S1to
It is recommended that this program be
carried out over a three year period to insure complete as well as
time tested statistics. The first calander year would be devoted
mainly to research and development of sample materials where
ground truth and reliable intelligence is available and/or the
development thereof. The second year would be used to establish
check, and. refine, techniques as well as making preliminary
estimates of yields in countries of interest as designated by the
intelligence community. By the third agricultural season NPIC
would have at least 3 highly trained agricultural specialists who
would provide correlated, related, report data as specified by the
community as well as provide training to additional analysts, as
appropriate.
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This document contains information affecting the national security of the United States within the meaning
of the espionage laws U. S. Code Title 18, Sections 793 and 794. The law prohibits its transmission or
the revelation of its contents in any manner to an unauthorized person, as well as its use in any manner
prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States or for the benefit of any foreign government to the
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to receive information in the designated control channels. Its security must be maintained in accordance
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Response to Internal Requirement
11 11 ROUTING DATE SENT
an
Linder NPTC Project No. 99738-6 13
Copy #1 and #2
FORM NO. ~~~ DOCUMENT CONTROL (13)
1 AUG. 6S
MFG 12-64
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