PERHAPS MOST SERIOUS OF ALL, THE CHART WOULD HAVE TO BE CHANGED FROM TIME TO TIME AND ALWAYS TO ACCOMMODATE NEWCOMERS AMONG THE ACCEPTED EXPRESSIONS.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78B05708A000300010003-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 29, 2014
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: August 3, 1964
• Content Type: MISC

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exasperate gentle reader more than it would edify him. 7E::
Perhaps most serious of all, the chart would have to be
changed from time to time and always to accommodate newcomers
among the accepted expressions.
The table of snynonyms above did not come into being all
at once; it has grown to its present size by accretion: "We
believe" came in rather early, and as I. remember via General
Smith himself. "We estimate" was a bit later; "we think,"
we anticipate," "we expect," and "we judgeare part way in.
?
If they make it all the way I trust they will be used and
understood in the "probably"/"we believe" bracket. "We doubt"
oa. ?
has some in within the last few yearsan.vmmn a legitimale
equivalent of "probably not." There will be others --
sincerely hope not very many. Keeping them out will take some
doing. In the past, whatever rigor was insisted upon at the
working and drafting level, who was there to tell a General Smith
or a Mr. Dulles, as he presided over the IAC or USIB, that the
revision he had just written out, on a piece of yellow paper was
not permissable?
From my remarks about the poets, it should be clear that
my sympathies lie with their opPoites -- the mathematically-
inclined. But we mathematically-inclined arc ourselves not
in good array. You might almost say that some of us are talking -
ft the decimal, others In the 'binary, and sf111 other:; In thc.
root rl-v or coven sy.;tAm:;.
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ta) 1..A3!Ni-11.JEP
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For example, consider the letter-number device which
has been standard with attach and other reporting services.
The letters A, B, C, D, E, and F designate the reliability
of the source and stand for, respectively: completely reliable,
usually reliable, fairly reliable, not usually- reliable, not
reliable, and, reliability cannot be judged. The numbers
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 designate the quality of the content
and stand for, respectively: (1) confirmed by other inde-
pendent or reliable sources; (2) probably true; (3) possibly
true; (4) doubtful; (5) probably false; and (6) cannot be
Judged. Note that the number 3, "possibly true," is in the
middle of the scale of odds, doing the duty I hive hoped it
should never be asked to do.
Or consider the findings of a-distinguished intelligence
research project. The object was to identify certain military'
units in terms of the chances favoring their existence or non-
existence. A certain group of units were identified us "firm."
Another group as "highly probable." A third group as "probable"
and a fourth general group as "possible." Except for one important
thing, this kind of ordering was wholly to my taste. The word
"rim" unfortunabely was not used to convey certitude, though
one would nave though t it described a condition or 100 per cent
certainty. Instead, its bugettors, upon cross-examination,
ovned that it was meant to indicate something like 90-95 per
cent -- roughly the equivalent of my "almost certain." This
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usage puts the findings of the project slightly askew from
the terminology of my chart -- "highly probable" equating
to my "probable" and "probable" to my "chances better than
even." Incidentally, the "possible" was used exact* as I
have felt it should he used, that is, a designator of something
In Lk(' range of chances between Lhe absolute barriers of
"certaLnty" and "impossibility" and to which no numerical
odds could be assigned. There are other heresies among the
mathematicians, if I may so proclaim them.
For example, look at the way in which photo-interpreters
have defined their key evaluative words:
"Suspect - Evidence is insufficient to permit
desivnatiOn of a function with any degree of cer-
tainty, but photography or other information provides
some indications of what the function may be."
"Possible - Evidence indicates that the designated
function is reasonable and more likely than other
functions considered."
"Probable - Evidence for the designated function
is strong and other functions appear quite doubtful."
This kind of formulation shows that someone -- probably
a number of people -- spent a good amount of time striving
for a set of rigorous definitions. If you will pause long
enough to realize that the heart of the photo-interpreter's
problem is identification and then take a hard look at his
word "suspect," you will see that his usage pacalieLs mine
for "possible."
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!AL
But the P/Is have already preempted "possible" for
other duty. In my scale of values their "possible" fits
nicely into the usual slot of "probable," and their
"probable" into the usual "almost certain."
We are in disarray.
.C$
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