(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78S01932A000100080034-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 6, 2003
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: August 23, 1974
• Content Type: CABLE

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Approved For Release 2003/08/08: CIA-RDP78S01932A
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POINT BEFORE THE POLITICAL OPTION HAS BEEN PLAYED OUT MORE FULLY.
SADAT MUST ALSO KNOW THAT, RESORT TO TO WAR, BEFORE ALL POLITICAL
POSSIBILITIES ARE EXHAUSTED, WOULD RISK THE LOSS OF ALL US
GOODWILL-.
IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT EGIYPTIAN HQ6111!U CONCERN OVER
CURRENT ISRAELI MILITARY MANEUVERING HAS CAUSED ARMED FORCES
COMMANDERS TO CONCLUDE THAT PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE PRE-EMPTIVE
ACTION ARE REQUIRED. GENERAL GAMASY MAY IN ANY CASE HAVE DECIDED
THAT MILITARY PRUDENCE REQUIRES ALL PRECAUTIONS SHORT OF WAR TO
FACE ISRAEL'S MILITARY EXERCISES IN THE SINAI
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER SLIGHT, THAT CAIRO HAS
BECOME SO PESSIMISTIC OVER PROSPECTS FOR A POLITICAL SOLUTION
THAT IT WOULD UNDERTAKE HOSTILITIES IN THE BELIEF THAT THIS
MIGHT AGAIN INDUCE MOVEMENT IN THE NEGOTIATIONS, AND THAT CAIRO
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RES.8A9Apff11 Yed For Release 2003/d ?8N"eI R1! 7P78S01932A000100'080 ICATIN4 OFFICER
CLASSIFICATION REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED
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COULD III MAKE A GOOD ENOUGH CASE TO JUSTIFY ITS ACTIONS IN
WASHINGTON'S EYES.
THE EGYPTIANS DO NOT BELIEVE THEY CAN GO AHEAD WITH
FURTHER NEGOTIATION ON THEIR OWN FRONT BEFORE THIE WEST BANK
QUESTION HAS SEEN SOME PROGRESS. THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE,
HOWEVER, TO BRING ABOUT ANY INTER-ARAB AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS
SHOULD BE APPROACHED. CAIRO MAY ALSO SEE LITTLE REAL HOPE
THAT ISRAEL CAN BE BROUGHT TO THE TABLE ON RIARAB TERMS EVEN
IF THE ARABS AGREE AMONG THEMSELVES. ISRAELI WAR TALK AND
MILITARY MANEUVERS OF RECENT-WEEKS HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY NOT ADDED
TO CAIRO'S CONFIDENCE. I1I13 E-2, IMPDET.d
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