UK-ELECTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78S01932A000100170032-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 20, 2004
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: October 11, 1974
• Content Type: CABLE

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SUBJECT: UK-ELECTION
DATE: 11 OCT 74
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THE LABOR PARTY'S4*E-SEAT MAJORITY IN THE GENERAL ELECTION
ON THURSDAY WAS A CONSIDERABLY SMALLER MARGIN OF VICTORY THAN MOST
.OPINION POLLS HAD PREDICTED.
PRIME MINISTER WILSON IS EXPECTED TO FORM THE NEW GOVERNMENT
ON MONDAY, AT WHICH TIME HE IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE THE NEW
GOVERNMENT'S PROGRAM OF ACTION. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE LIKELBY
IN HIS CABINET.
TORY LEADER HEATH'S POLITICAL CAREER WILL PROBABLY NOT SURVIVE
THIS LATEST DEFEAT. THE C04ONSERVATIVES NEEDED ONLY 277 SEATS
TO LABOR1'S 319 THE LIBERALS LOST A SEAT TO FINISH WITH A TOTAL
OF ONLY 13 AND THE VARIOUS NATIONALIST PARTIES PICKED UP SOME SEATS,
BUT NOT AS MANY AS HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED,
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RELEASING OFFICER COORDINATING OFFICERS
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ECONOMIC PROBLEMS WILL COMMAND THE IMMEOODIATE ATTENTION OF
THE NEW WILSON GOVERNMENT. THE PRIME MINISTER IS CERTAIN TO MOVE
TOWARD 3 INCREASED GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATION IN INDUSTRY. IN VIEW
OF THE SMALL SIZE OF LABOR"S MAJORITY, HOWEVER, WILSON MAY BE ABLE
TO PLEAD CAUTION AND SOFTEN THE MORE RADICAL DEMANDS OF.THE PARTY"S
LEFT WING. WILSON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO PERSUADE
LABOR TO ABIDE BY THE OPROGRAM OF VOLUNTARY WAGE CONTROLS KNOWN AS
THE "SOCIAL CONTRAST." THE SUCCESS OF LABOR'S ANTI--INFLATION
,PROGRAM WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE COOPERATION OF RANK-AND--FILE
.WORKERS.
THE BROAD QUESTION OF BRITAIN'S MEMBERSHIP IN THE EC AND
A PROPOSED REFERENDUM--EXPECTED WITHIN THE YEAR--COULD CAUSE
DISSENSION WITHIN THE LABOR GOVERNMENT. DURING THE CAMU?UOIPAIGN,
WILSON FACED OPPOSITION FROM INFLUENTIAL CABINET MEMBERS, SHIRLEY
4WILLIAMS AND ROY JENKINS, WHO DECLARED THAT THEY WOULD LEAVE THE
3 GOVERNMENT IF C003BRITAIN OPTS OUT OF THE COMMUNITY. ACCORDING
2 TO RECENT PUBLIC OPINION POLLS, THE ODDS ARE ABOUT EVEN THAT BRITONS
"WILL VOTE TO PULL OUT MOF THE EC.
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THE ELECTION OUTCOME IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE THE STATUS OF THE
UK DEFENSE REVIEW. OFFICIAL DECISIONS ON THE SIZE OF THE CUTS
IN THE DEFENSE BUDGET ARE EXPECTED TO BERIANNOUNCED SOMETIME THIS
FALL. SOME CUTS IN BRITAIN'S NATO-COMMITTED FORCES APPEAR
INEVITABLE.
THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL NEED TO PAY GREATER ATTENTION TO THE
DEMANDS OF THE REGIONAL PARTIES, NOTABLY THE SCOTISH NATIONALISTS,
WITH THEIR SMALL BUT EXPECTABLE TOTAL OF i1 'SEATS, AND THE PRO1ISPECT
OF CONSIDERABLE WEALTH FLOWING INTO SCOTLAND FROM THE NORTH SEA
OIL FIELDS, THE SCOTTISH NATIONALISTS WILL HAVE A STRONGER VOICE
IN PARLIAMENT. E2 IMPDET,rl
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