ANALYSIS OF ARC LIGHT PROGRAM BY TARGET ZONE (S)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78S02149R000100060013-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 20, 2001
• Sequence Number: 13
• Content Type: STUDY

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APPENDIX IV
Analysis of ARC LIGHT Program by Target Zone (S)
1. (S) This analysis, through an examination of the history of the
B-52 strikes, provides an assessment of ARC LIGHT in terms of the areas
struck, the magnitude and dates of the missions, and their relative suc-
cesses in an effort to identify discernible trends and patterns of B-52
employment.
a. A knowledge of the methods by which this analysis was con-
ducted, and of some of the limitations governing the reliability of the
conclusions, is necessary prior to their acceptance as completely factual
data. The base data used as reference came from two sources--DIA and
ODCSOPS, US Army. The data, in both cases, was in the form of "working
papers"; since meaningful assessments of the ARC LIGHT program, and even
basic information relating to ARC LIGHT, appear to be very inadequate in
light of the significant cost and psychological effects of the ARC LIGHT
strikes. Further, the intelligence which generated the requirement for
many of the strikes, and bomb damage assessments for the strikes conducted
subsequent to 13 October 1965, were not available to this agency at the
time this report was completed.
b. The ARC LIGHT program was analyzed by means of a detailed map
study of the reported strike areas; a grouping of strikes within the
areas struck (regardless of the stated mission); an analysis of these
groups to measure the effort expended, results achieved and apparent short-
comings of the missions; and finally, an examination of the entire program
to identify patterns, trends, and operational policies which might bear
improvement.
c. A map presentation of the ARC LIGHT strikes is included as
Figure 1, ARC LIGHT Strikes, 17 June-15 November 1965, and a summary of
all B-52 strikes is included as Tab A, entitled "ARC LIGHT Strikes by Area
Grouping."
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2. (TS) Target analysis of ARC LIGHT indicates that many of the
strikes have been flown against "suspected" VC strongholds. The stated
purpose of the ARC LIGHT program is "to conduct saturation attacks
against TARGET AREAS KNOWN to include VC occupied installations/facilities,
but for which precise target data to permit pinpoint bombing attacks 3re
not available." Of 32 missions flown between 28 July and 3 October 1965
(inclusive), 11 of the missions assessed as having little or no results
were flown based on a stated objective of striking SUSPECTED VC facilities.
An apparent relationship exists between the adequacy of the
intelligence collection and evaluation effort relating to the ARC LIGUT
strikes, and the effectiveness of the completed missions. Some examples
of inadequate intelligence resulting in completely unsuccessful missions
are:
(1) The MATCH TIP I and II strikes on 9 and 13 October res-
pectively. A total of 42 aircraft dropped 2,140 750 lb bombs with a
center of mass offset of 150 meters between strikes. Ground follow-up
action, subsequently reported by the senior US advisor in the area,
indicated that there were no large supply points, bodies, or blood in the
area. Small quantities of clothing were found. The report further stated
that "The earlier report of an equipment base and rice cache is believed
to be the result of a snowballing of a translation error."
(2) The BIRCH BARK I and II, BIG STAG I, MOUNTAIN TRAIL
and BIG STAG II missions (see Tab A--Grid Square BS), flown between
1 August and 20 September resulted in dropping 5,269 750 lb bombs in an
area in which the centers of mass of all strikes fell within 16 square KM.
(6.25 square miles). A review of the assessment indicates that the first
three strikes (3,433 bombs) resulted in no damage. The fourth strike was
flown because of a suspected communications center in the area. Ground
follow-up found a dummy (bamboo) radio tower and a VC area which had
apparently been abandoned for some time. The fifth strike was flown
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against "a traditional and well-secured VC stronghold"--the resulting
impacts fell within the other four strike areas.
(3) Analysis of CHAIN SAW (Grid Square YS); GEAR TRAIN I,
II, and III (Grid Square BS); HOSE REEL I, II, III, and IV (Grid Square
YT); and DRUM FIRE I, II, and SUN COVE I and II (Grid Square YT) leads
to the same conclusion. (CHAIN SAW-1420 bombs; GEAR TRAIN-2191 bombs;
HOSE REEL-1835 bombs; DRUM FIRE, SUN COVE-4779 bombs. See Figure 1 and
Tab A.)
(4) Conversely, there are examples, such as FOX DEN (16
July, Grid Square BR) and MAIN SPAR (13 August, Grid Square YD) which
were marked by singular success and apparently based on reliable intelli-
gence.
3. (TS) The analysis of the strikes by area pointed out the estab-
lishment of a significant pattern of re-strike intervals. A review of
Figure 1, in particular the following series:
a HOSE REEL (YT).
b. TOP SPIN (XR).
c. All strikes in Binh Duong Province (XT).
d. STRONG POINT (XT).
e. BIG BEN (XT).
f. FAST RACE (XT).
g. MATCH TIP (XT).
h. GEAR TRAIN (BS).
i. BIRCH BARK I through BIG STAG II (BS).
j.
SALES TAX, TONE BEAT, LOW HEDGE (BS).
k. CAPE COD (XR).
reveals that if a given area is struck, it will be struck at least once
or twice more at three to five day intervals. With the possibility of
an active enemy collection effort off Guam, any area subjected to a strike
within three to five days prior to an observed mission departure could,
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60
40
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Fig?I
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ARC LIGHT STRIKES 17 JUNE?I5 NOV 1965
50 60 70 80 CO 20 700
MAIN SPAR
1.3 Aug?.
Quang Tri
THAILAND
0Huers,
'\*PAPER SACK 8 Oct
BT
BIR& BARK I 1 Aug
BIRCH BARK II 4 Aug
BIG STAG I 4 Sep'
MOUNTAIN TRAIL 10 Se
LAOS
4.1
? ?
BIG STAG II 20 Sep 111 ALZ-B
> I I
GEAR TRAIN I 23 Aug
GEAR TRAIN II 28 Aug
EAR TRAIN III 31 Aug
BT
BS
/ ? Quang Ngai
TAX
WATER SKI IV 15 Oct
1 1 1 LOW I EDGE
TONE BEAT 28 Sep
BS
Kontum
/ FOX DEN 16 Jul
7
L, P1eiku
1DOOR HINGE I 9 Oct ?
DOOR HINGE II 9 Oct
DOOR HINGE III 9 Oct
24 Sep
1 Oct
NIGHT MIGHT ?
II 20 Oct
IV 20 Oct
V 20 Oct
Qui Nhon
C A MB
ODI A
FINE SAND 28 Oct
FAR STAR 27 Sep
OIL WELL 29 Sep
NET POINT 3 Oct
'STRONG POINT II 6 Oct
ARC LIGHT I 17 Ju-t1
CAR PARK II 21 Jul
RIGHT GUARD 7 Sep
LONG ROPE 14 Sep
NEW SONG I 21 Sep
'STRONG POINT I 4 Oct
INEW SONG II 23 Sep
HIGH TIDE I 7 Oct
HIGH TIDE II 8 Oct V I
FAST RACE II 11 Nov
FAST RACE III 13 Nov PROPOSED
ALZ - F IVORY TUSK
UTH
CAT PAW I 13 Nov
CAT PAW II 14 Nov %.
CAT PAW III 14 Nov
CAT PAW IV 14 Nov
CAT PAW V 14 Nov
CAT PAW VI 14 Nov
1
BIG .BEN I 1 Nov_
BIG .BEN III 3 Nov
OVAL TRACK 24 OCT
WHITE STONE 18 Oct
FAST MAIL 12 Sep
THIRD BASE 2 Sep
..-"-MATCH TIP I 9 Oct
MATCH TIP II 13 Oct
YT
ALZ-A
TN AM
15 Nov
Nha Trang
DRUM FIRE I 4 Jul
DRUM FIRE II 6 Jul
SUN COVE I 6 Sep
SUN COVE II 15 Sep
DICE ROLL I 8 Nov
DICE ROLL II 9 Nov
HOSE REEL I 26 Aug
mmefflI
VR WR
HARD ROCK 19 Sep
Soc Trang
WR XR.
ALZ-D
WR
WQ
WR
WQ
FLAT
SAIGO
Hoa
110--HOUR HAND 22 Oct
el?CHAI,N SAW 28 Jul
? Baria
ALZ-E
XR
CAPE COD I 30 Oct
CAPE COD II 30 Oct
CAPE COD III 30 Oct
CAPE COD V 6 Nov
TOP SPIN I 16 Sep
TOP SPIN II 20 Sep
HOSE REEL II 27 Aug
HOSE REEL III 28 Aug
HOSE REEL IV 31 Aug
ROOF 17 Sep
I UTM
SqUare = 100 Kilometers
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almost without fail, estimate the exact time and area of the forthcoming
strike.
4. (TS) Further, there appears to be a significant lack of updated
intelligence and prompt photo interpretation of strikes, often resulting
in a costly follow-up of unsuccessful missions. The strikes previously
referenced in paragraphs 2a, b, and c above, also serve as illustration
of this point. Although an admissible error in the intelligence effort
might result in a strike against a valueless target, it would seem that
photo interpretation and re-evaluation of the target area would be accoun-
plished expeditiously enough to prevent repeat attacks on a fruitless
target. An additional aspect of this is the reconnaissance by fire
technique which apparently is in use. It appears that, because of a lack
of detailed target locations, many of the strikes are exploratory in
nature. If a worthwhile target is uncovered it is subjected to satura-
tion by restrike. However, if no target is uncovered, a subsequent satura-
tion is nonetheless accomplished.
5. (TS) Area analysis of the ARC LIGHT program brought another
subject into focus--the concentration of effort, area concentration and
target priority of the B-52 strikes. Figure II, a detailed presentation
of the strikes in UTM square XT, and Figure III, a superimposition of a
portion of UTM square XT on a map of Washington, D. C. (scale adjusted),
are used to illustrate this subject.
a. Ellipse A, Figures II and III, circumscribes the center of
mass coordinates of six ARC LIGHT missions flown on 7, 14, 21, 23 September
and 7 and 8 October. This area (25 square KM) received a total of 5,199
750 lb bombs. Ellipse B circumscribes the C-O-M coordinates of the two
fruitless MATCH TIP strikes on 9 and 13 October. This 1.6 square KM area
received 2,243 750 lb bombs. Ellipse C circumscribes the C-O-M coordinates
of the FAST RACE strikes and CAT PAW I, 11 and 13 November. This 28 square
KM area received 2,448 750 lb bombs.
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b. Further analysis indicated that 54 percent of all ARC LIGHT
missions through 15 November, representing 57.6 percent of the total
number of aircraft flown, struck targets within a 50 mile radius of
Saigon. This area includes the bulk of strikes in UTM square XT and all
of the strikes in UTM squares YT and YS. Figure III, representing a
portion of the XT square superimposed on Washington, D. C., indicates
that 424 B-52 aircraft dropped a total of 20,794-750 lb bombs and 162
1,000 lb bombs in an area of roughly 456 square miles. As an aside,
the OVAL TRACK mission, whose C-O-M coordinate falls directly astride
the Pentagon, dropped 612 750 lb bombs.
c. Less concentration in this area might free a considerable
number of B-52s to strike in other areas, such as the Pleiku Highlands
and infiltration routes. Several such missions (e.g., MAIN SPAR) have
resulted in outstanding mission success.
6. (TS) In summary, several operational procedures might warrant
additional study and modification. They are:
a. The intelligence collection and evaluation effort relating
to the selection of B-52 targets.
b. The photo interpretation and intelligence update efforts
which preclude costly restrikes against nonlucrative targets.
c. The departure from a regular pattern of restrikes against
individual targets.
d. The requirement for a redistribution of effort to preclude
an overemphasis in the Saigon area.
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Fig 2
ARC LIGHT STRIKES GRID SQUARE XT 17 JUNE ?15 NOV 1965 ie
PROPOSED
ALZ - F
AN LOC.
STRONG POINT II 6 Oct
SOUTH VIET
STRONG POINT I 4 Oct
FAR STAR 27
FIG 3
FAST RACE III 13 Nov
4 -
FAST RACE It 11 Nov
FAST RACE I 11 Nov
FINE SAND 28 Octe------.4X
PHU KHUONG
CAT PAW VI 14 Nov
1
1 ?11 RI TAM
DUON
-CAT PAW
\
3 Nov
CAT PAW V 14 Nov
CAT PAW II 14 Nov-1-?X 1
CAT PAW I 4 Nov
X X
1
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X? CAR PARK II 21 Jul
I
LI9IIT I 7 jun
CAT PAW nr 14 Nov
BIG BEN I 1
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BIG DEN III Nov A BEN.
r
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WIIIT STONE 18 Oct ? X xer'-'LI;01:IPE TI 3
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FAST MAIL 12 Sep
THIRD BASE, 2 Se
HU DUC
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ATM TIP I 9 Oct
MATCH TIP' II 13 'Oct CHAU
THANH
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XT
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00
EACH SQUARE = 10 KILOMETERS
* SOURCE OF INFORMATION-DIA ASSESSMENT STUDIES (WORKING PAPERS)
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