BRIEFING NOTES ON PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES RESULTING FROM BOMBING OF NORTH VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78S02149R000200010017-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 17
• Content Type: NOTES

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Approved For Release 2004/02/02 : CIA-RDP78S02149R000200010017-0
BRIIF .NG NOTES Q $ W L~ATR ANALYSIS }j( 1! CIt'._
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Then closest approximation to an official North Vietnam total of
casualties -- presumably both military and ctilian-is 75#0 6. This
Only a few
official statements give casualty figures for specific incidents. They
indicate total casualties of 692, of which 316 have been specified as
killed and 214 as wounded. The North Vietnamese also claim that 124
schools and 30 medical installations have been bombed.
A careful analysis of all materials available
a
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yields a minimuthsrd estimate of 823 casualties of which 25X1
667 were killed and 156 were wounded.
ndicates that civil defense measures may be
effectively limiting civilian casualties.
At this nta.,a in our a::alyats we are not ready to attempt a general
estimate of total casualties. The ev~,ience available does indicate, however,
that the official North Vietnamese claims are patently overdrawn.
Most of the air attacks in North Vietnam have concentrated on an
area including only 25 percent of the population, or 4.3 million per.aone.
Within this area a total of III strikes -- excluding armed reconnaissance
missions -- have been flown against 90 military and 62 economic targets.
Approved For Release 2004/02/02 : CIA-RDP78S02149R000200010017-0
 Approved For Release 2004/02/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200010017-0
These targets are located at 108 geographic points of which 10 are
in uninhabited areas, 54 are in rural areas, and 44 are in urban areas.
Tla total population of these points, and consequently the population
actually exposed to air attack is 700,,M persons, predominately
in urban areas.
Photo-analysis of 5 sample areas -- 2 rural and 3 urban --
indicates bomb damage to civilian buildings surrounding the immediate
target area of 1 to 1.5 percent of total buildings in the area.
If this damage can be applied to all bombed target areas and if
physical damage can be directly equated with casualties, then the
maximum estimated civilian casualties would range from 7,040 to
10,,000 persons# This estimate does not allow for prior warning of
an air attack or other civil defense measures.
The above estimate excludes armed reconnaissance missions,.
If they were included the number of persons exposed to air attack
would increase significantly. A preliminary appraisal of the damage
resulting from armed reconnaissance missions also makes it probable
that estimated civilian casualties would air increase significantly.
Approved For Release 2004/02/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200010017-0