SUGGESTED CHANGES TO 27 JANUARY 1967 ONE MEMORANDUM SUBJECT: 'PROBABLE REACTIONS TO CERTAIN US ACTIONS'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78S02149R000200230005-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 12, 2002
• Sequence Number: 5
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved For Release 2002/08/12
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Suggested Changes to 27 January 1967 ONE Memorandum
subject: "Probable Reactions to Certain US Actions"
1. Suggest that the final sentence in paragraph one be deleted
and in the penultimate sentence the phrase "for blocking deliveries
of non-military supplies to the people of North Vietnam and" also
be deleted. The final sentence then would read "And should this
apprehension die down, there would be a residual of criticism against
the US for disregarding the principal of "freedom of the seas" in
peacetime."
Reason: Most of the supplies flowing in by sea to
North Vietnam are of the petroleum or truck variety
(direct war support) or portable generators, truck repair
facilities, machine tools (indirect war support). There
is very little food coming in, perhaps 100,000 to 200,000
tons, which could easily be supplied by rail if the ports
were mined.
2. Suggest adding the following to the footnote on page 2:
"However, United Kingdom flag arrivals declined
63 percent in 1966 compared to 1965. The Communist
countries have been taking over more and more of the
commodity movement to North Vietnam and in December of
1966 accounted for 90 percent of the total."
3. Suggest that on page 3, paragraph 4, the following paragraph
be substituted:
"4. Hanoi has already begun to prepare its citizens
for the possibility that its harbors would be mined. How-
ever, the actual mining of the ports would cause serious
concern to the Hanoi regime since it would endanger the
flow of essential supplies from the USSR and China. If
the program were limited to conventional mining of the
harbors to prevent the use of deep-draft ocean going ships,
imports, while reduced, would continue to flow in from
lighter and shallow draft coasters. However, within a
few months, operational quantities of a new shallow draft
mine will be available to the US. If both mines were used,
sea and coastal water movements would be virtually denied.
There would be little that Hanoi could do to counter the
mining."
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4. Page 4, paragraph 5, suggest the second sentence be changed
to end with the following phrase:
"and thus the flow of imports would be highly
vulnerable to air strikes."
5. Page 6, paragraph 9, line 3, delete "greatly."
6. Page 7, paragraph 11, delete the final three sentences and
substitute the following:
"Should the Soviets decide not to escalate the war,
we believe it likely they would bring increased pressure
on Hanoi to enter into negotiations, since the US would
have indicated its intention to continue escalating the
air camapign until this pressure, plus allied military
action in the south, would have made such a reconsideration
a necessity under less favorable circumstances to Hanoi."
7. Page 8, paragraph 12, delete sentence 3.
8. Page 8, paragraph 13, delete sentence 4 and substitute the
following:
"However, in our view, it would probably not affect
the flow of supplies, at current levels, to t:he VC/NVA
forces in South Vietnam."
Approved For Release 2002/08/12 : glA-RDP78S02149R000200230005-9
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Approved For Release 2002/08/12 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200230005-9