MACV 29 APRIL 1968 GUERRILLA OB

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T02095R000100010009-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: May 15, 1968
• Content Type: MFR

Approved For Release 2006/10~'ZDP78T02095R000100010009-8
15 May 1968
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: MACV 29 April 1968 Guerrilla OB
1. The 29 April Guerrilla OB was received at DIA on 13 May and
forwarded to CIA on 14 May. This new estimate shows an natio7 wide
increase of 14,323 guerrillas over the previously held MACV estimate.
This new estimate is probably based on incomplete lI repart,3 for the 2W1
first quarter of 1,068. This is assumed to be the case since there is
no change In the current estimate for IV Corps and the previous one.
2. Although this estimate is a vast improvement over previous
MACV estimative attempts, the current exercise still contains numerous
inconsistencies; the least of which is not the methods used in
evaluating documentary evidence.
3. In I Corps the estimate was increased from 12,562 to 25,045.
This is the most acceptable of the four Corps, with only one major
and one minor exceptions. Of minor impact is the apparent exclusion
of about 1,000 Secret Guerrilla from the RVN Quang Nam Province
estimate. On the other hand the estimate of 6u for Thus "Chien
appears to be devoid of all reason. In the first place, dt>eunxentary,
evidence supports a figure well over twice this number. A document,
with the data of info of Septemher 1967, lists 1,747. In the second
place, possible MACV attrition does not seem to warrent such e drop.
The estimate for Thua Thien 6 decreased from 2,600 since the first
of the year while those for all other provinces in I Corps have in-
creased. Finally the current estimate does not take into account
the VC gains as a result of Tet -- the number of GVN controlled
hamlets has been substantially reduced.
4. In keeping with m Rc rta~p
tradition the estimate for II Corps
shows a decline from the previous estimate to 15,806. Inconsistancies
within this Corps are numerous. The methods used to evaluate docu-
mentary evidence vary greatly. The estimates for Binh Dint and Phu
Yen Provinces reflect available documentary evidence. A dccnment
dated February 1968 lists 5,404 guerrillas in Binh Dinh. The :MACV
estimate is 5,654. The estimate for Phu Yen is within 164 of the
latest documentary indication. The estimate for Pleiku, on the other
hand, totally disregards available documentation. Although the estimate
is 70 above the pre-Tet estimate it is a far piece short of the 8,803
~S_ECRE
 Approved For Release 2006/10/20: -RDP78T02095R000100010009-8
X-PRE1
claimed by the VC during 1967. The reason for this was onetexplained
to be a result of the low number of weapons available (719) and the
large number of women (912) and teenagers (627). This might be
accepted as valid if it were consistent with past MACV interpretative
procedures. Following the capture of a document dated late. 1966 which
claimed the strength of the guerrilla in Ninh Thuan to be around 1,700
(i.e., 1,698 - 1,745) MACV has accepted and held this figure as a
valid estimate for the guerrilla strength of this Province. The
following table demonstrates this fact.
MACV September 1967 estimate
1,700
MACV October 1967 estimate
1,700
M.A:CV December 1967 estimate
1,700
MACV January 1968 estimate
1,700
MACV April 1968 estimate
1,688
It is also interesting to note that the document claimed that the
number of weapons available to the guerrillas in idinh Thuan was only
130 and that there were 436 women in the guerrilla force, which is a
higher percentage than in Pleikat.
5. The III Corps estimate was increased from 4,618 to 6,634, a
move in the right direction but totally unacceptable. Ha% Ngbia is
estimated to have 730 guerrillas -- in February of 1968 two of the four
districts of the provinces had 1,084 alone. The strength of the other
two districts was 1,058 in 1967 and there is little evidence which
would indicate a substantial decrease in this figure. The estimate for
Hatt. Nghia is weak by about 1,000 men. The present MACV estimate for
Gia Dinh is 294. This is a estimated decrease of 906 since 1 4anuary
1968. According to documentary evidence there were 259 gue:rillas in
one of Gia Dinh's eight districts in February of 1968 alone. We could
go on but let it suffice to say that the estimate for III Corps is
totally unacceptable.
6. There is no change in IV Corps. The previous estimate of 13,024
was believed to have been about 10,000 shy end from all indications the
trend during 1968 has not been in the direction of lowering this estimate
but now 23, 000 Is probably low.
7. The following table shows MACV's previous and 29 April. 1968
guerrilla OB estimates.
Previous Currently
I CTZ
12,562 25,045
II CTZ
15,979 15,806
III CTZ
4,618 6,634
IV CTZ
13,024 13,024
Skid
46,185 6o, 509
I
SERET
 Approved For Release 2006/10/20: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000100010009-8
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Approved For Release 2006/10/20: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000100010009-8