GEORGE:

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T02095R000100050003-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 13, 2005
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: November 21, 1967
• Content Type: MF

November 24, 1967
MEMORANDUM FOR MR. GEORGE CARVER
Special Assistant for Vietnamese Affairs
George:
The Secretary is getting ready for a one-hour television show on
Vietnam.
He has asked me to prepare several different sets of questions, for
distribution to several sources.
He specifically asked that a set be prepared for the CIA. He requests
that each answer be no longer than three or four sentences and that
they be back to him by Monday, November 27.
Attached is the first cut at the CIA list. There will be others coming
along, but it seemed wisest to conduct this operation in takes.
Phil G. Goulding
Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Public Affairs)
16L
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1. Is there evidence that the North Vietnamese are limited by
manpower from sending additional troops to the south?
2. How large a force in South Vietnam, of both Viet Cong and North
Vietnamese, can North Vietnam support -- given its potential, our
bombing and other pertinent factors?
or
3. How much of the Viet Cong main force strength is now composed of 1,
North Vietnamese?
4. How much of the Viet Cong guerrilla strength is now composed of
6. Is the bombing reducing the infiltration of materiel-? By what degree?
What is the evidence to support this?
North Vietnamese troops?
Is the bombing reducing the infiltration of men? By what degree?
What is the evidence to support this?
5.
v'7. Is there evidence that the bombing has weakened the will of the leaders
of Hanoi ? , cJ
8. Is there evidence that the bombing has strengthened the will of the
leaders of Hanoi?
/9.
defenses, how many in training capacities? Gil
Cc
11. How dependent is the NLF on infiltration of men and supplies from
the North? What evidence is there that the NLF is controlled by -
North Vietnam?
many repairing LOC's, how many manning air defenses and coastald
What is the order of battle of ground forces of North Vietnam in w A
North Vietnam?
,, 10. How are those forces being utilized in North Vietnam today -- how
/12. How is the NLF organized? What is its strength? Is it predominantly
South Vietnamese? Is there any evidence that the NLF is controlled OC
by Peking? 0 nl~-
13. How much popular support does the NLF enjoy from non-members in
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 18. Please describe the escalation in the type of equipment infiltrated over AT
the past 12 months as compared to prior times -- has there not been
a step-up of rockets, artillery and other larger pieces?
119. How many Soviet military advisers are there in North Vietnam andC 2
what are they doing?
/20. How many Chinese military personnel are there in North Vietnam OjC-
and what are they doing?
21. Please assess the degree of damage to civilian structures and
neighborhoods in North Vietnam attributable to our bombing. og-rC
23. How often does the average VC-NVA maneuver unit fight? How is p
it measured? Is the low combat rate a matter of choice or necessity?J
What is the limiting factor? Has this rate changed over the last year?
STAT
24. How much of the country is "pacified" today? How do you measurec,A,,,
what is "pacified" and what is not? I
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/ 14.
How many civilians have been killed or wounded in (1) South Vietnam 04
and (2) North Vietnam from all causes ?
0
15.
How do you explain the motivation of the Viet Cong?,
ptJL/(
/16.
How do you explain the motivation of the North Vietnamese?
0Nt/D*
17. What percentage of the materiel being infiltrated into South Vietnam
comes via Sihanoukville rather than via the Ho Chi Minh trail or 0Eir,
across the DMZ?
/1/220 To what degree is Cambodia being used as a sanctuary and a based
of operations, aside from its use as an infiltration trail?
25. What evidence do we have to indicate that a pacified area will stay
pacified? Does the enemy have the resources to reverse pacification
procedure? Has he done so? In what areas of the country? To
what degree?
~/ 26. Is it necessary to win the allegiance of the pacified population or is it
enough merely to bring them under government control? How do we it
know what their allegiance is ?
 / 27. Is there any evidence that the enemy is moving back toward a
guerrilla operation? If the enemy does this, can he sustain his
effort indefinitely? Could this keep South Vietnam in turmoil?
Could the South Vietnamese handle a protracted guerrilla war
themselves ?
9
f 28. How much materiel support comes into North Vietnam from the oK
Soviet Union? From Red China? What kind of support comes from
each?
V 2 9.
What would happen to the North Vietnamese/Viet Cong movement if
Ho Chi Minh died or otherwise left the scene? Who would take his OME-
place ?
30. Is there any division within the North Vietnamese/Viet Cong
leadership on the conduct of the war or on the matter of negotiation
which could cause a disruptive split beneficial. to us? {) ra
31. What is the role of the Nationalist Chinese in our Vietnamese
activities ?
V/' 32. If the Chinese entered the war overtly, what would happen to Soviet 0(
materiel support for the Vietnamese communists?
33. Are the captured enemy documents we now use to show his declining
position valid or created "documents" intended to mislead us ? 7
f 34. Is Viet Cong recruitment more difficult today than it was a year ago?
How many SouthVietnamese are recruited by the VC each month now?
How many a year ago? What does this mean? c''b
35. What evidence do we have, if any, that any kind of cross-over point
has been reached when the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese are
losing more men than they are infiltrating and recruiting?
36. If we have not reached that point, when do you predict that it will be
reached?
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37. What are the statistics on the roads open today versus those open
a year ago? What definition do you use of an "open road?"fs
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38. What are the figures on the number of enemy being killed in 1967
versus '1966?
What are the figures on the number of defectors coming from the /
Communist side to the government in 1967 versus 1966? /
40. What are the figures on the weapons being captured, 1967 versus
1966?
39.
41. Please assess the success of the anti-corruption campaign of the
South Vietnamese government in facts, figures, arrests, and so
forth. What has been done ?
/ 42. . Is there a ceiling -- an upper range -- above which the Viet Cong
V and North Vietnam cannot generate additional forces and cannot
adequately supply their forces in South Vietnam? What is it?
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What is the state of the North Vietnamese economy? Crop yields?
Industrial output? Exports? Imports?
/2.
3.
Under present conditions, what does the future hold for the North
Vietnamese economy?
What has been the trend of North Vietnamese imports? Up, down,
or constant? By sea? By rail?
4, What are the principal items of import today and how have they changed
over the past year?
5.
How serious is the insurgency in Thailand?
0YV ~'-
V 6. How feasible is it for Red China to launch and maintain some kind
of military intervention in the war?
If we could cut the northeast rail line and close the port of Haiphong,
what effect would this have on the NVN economy? Would NVN be able
to continue the war? o
8. What is the likelihood of Red China or the Soviet Union supplying NVN
with new weapons -- weapons that have not been used in this war so UAL
far? What types of weapons would these be?
V,,-7.
j9.
[~ 11. Numerically, how effective were the Viet Cong/North Vietnamese
in keeping South Vietnamese away from the polls in the recent
election.
Is there any indication that any VC or NVN military units are beginning
to deliberately not carry out orders or beginning to rebel? Have Cc-,Q
there been any mass surrenders?
10. Is it possible that the enemy will stop fighting, go underground,
and wait until the Americans leave before starting up again?
12. Are the Viet Cong still collecting significant taxes from the people
in contested areas of South Vietnam?
of 1966, 1965, 1964, 1963?
13. Compare the ability and effectiveness of the RVNAF today with that 7
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1)
J4. Evaluate the combat capability of the regular North Vietnamese forces.
x/15. What is the reasoning behind the enemy's recent series of very
strong offensive actions, Con Thien, Dak To, etc?
~6. How much of the North Vietnamese manpower base is committed
to all areas of their war effort? How is the manpower utilized?
/17. Does the declining military situation of the VC/North Vietnamese
increase the danger of intervention by the Red Chinese? Can China
or Russia allow defeat of their communist allies in Vietnam?
18. How effective has our intelligence been in anticipating enemy
activities ?
v/19.
Do we have any information about new Russians or Chinese weapons
to be introduced soon into the VC/North Vietnamese military structure?
,120. Will the enemy's great reserve strength make our war of attrition
an extremely long process, if indeed practical?
V/2 l. What is the definitive structure (order of battle) of the North Vietnamese
forces in the South?
2. What is the infiltration rate today? Six months ago, a year, two years
ago?
23. What is the Buddist oppositionts effect today?
24. Is there evidence of help to the NVN by Communist bloc countries,
besides China and Russia, other than trade? What does NVN receive
from these countries in trade? Are there arms and advisors from
these countries in NVN?
25. If we could cut the northeast rail line and close the port of Haiphong,
how rapidly would this degrade the air defenses in North Vietnam?