SURVEY OF COMMUNIST MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS IN INDOCHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080015-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 26, 2009
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: July 18, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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NSA review completed
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To Secret 25X1
Survey of Communist
Military Developments in Indochina
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Top Secret
18 July 1974
Copy No. ,...
DIA Review
Completed.
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SURVEY OF COMMUNIST
MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS IN INDOCHINA*
(This report covers the period
July 3-17, 1974)
The Key Points
? No new regular infiltration groups were detected moving southward
during the past two weeks, but some infiltration apparently is
continuing.
? COMINT and photography indicate that a new transportation
offensive is under way in northern South Vietnam.
? Three North Vietnamese combat regiments have relocated from
Quang Tri to Thua Thien Province, significantly increasing the
Communist threat west and southwest of Hue, where the
Communists are expected to increase tactical activity.
? Another North Vietnamese antiaircraft artillery regiment has
withdrawn from Laos -- the tenth since the 1973 Laos cease-fire.
? Five MIG-21 fighters have deployed to Vinh Airfield, enhancing
considerably the Communists' tactical air capability over southern
North Vietnam, northern South Vietnam, southern Laos, and the
Gulf of Tonkin.
? Food imports to North Vietnam during the first half of 1974 reached
record levels -- nearly double those for the same period last year --
and appear likely to remain high.
* This report has been prepared jointly by the Central Intelligence Agency and
the Department of Defense.
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July 18, 1974
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Preface
This report summarizes evidence received during the reporting period of
(I) Communist efforts to infiltrate new manpower and military supplies toward
and into South Vietnam, (II) significant Communist combat activity, and
(I11) other developments affecting Communist military capabilities in Indochina.
e
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DETAILS
I. Infiltration and Redeployment of North Vietnamese Personnel
and Military Supplies
Personnel Infiltration
1. Although no new regular infiltration groups have actually been detected
moving southward thus far in July, some infiltration appears to be continuing.
COMINT indicates that at least four battalions recently completed their
pre-infiltration training in North Vietnam's MR 3 Right Bank. At least three of
the battalions were specifically preparing to start the trip south in early July --
one referenced as being destined for South Vietnam's central coast. Although there
was no specific reference to the destination of the other battalions, the pattern
of infiltration during the latter months of the regular infiltration cycle suggests
that they all probably are going to the northern half of South Vietnam. These
four battalions have not as yet been added to our estimate of infiltration starts
shown in the table below.
Comparative Starts of Troops from North Vietnams
1972/73 1973/74
Total starts regular infiltra- 94,000 94,000
tion cycle, Sep 1 - Jun 30 (91,500)
1973 1974
Total starts by destination 1,700 ....
Jul 1-17
MR Tri-Thien
MR 5 1,700 ....
B-3 Front
r COSVN
Southern Laos/ MR 559 .... ....
1. DoD figures are shown in parenthesis.
2. Five new special-purpose infiltration groups, comprising about 70
personnel, were detected moving south during the reporting period. Three of the
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groups were destined for Communist MR "Iri Thien, and one cacti for the 13-3
Front and COSVN areas. Moreover, a communications intercept of .lull: S
referenced an unspecified number of special-purpose "Z" groups -- composed of
high-ranking personnel - moving through the infiltration system. None of the
groups. however. has as yet been identified.
Redehle>_v>reII(.s
3. In South Vietnam. recent COMINT indicates that since early June two
North Vietnamese infantry regiments (the 271st and the 18th) Fund an unidentified
artillery regiment have shifted southward from Quang lri Province into Thua Thien
Province in northern MR 1. significantly increasing the Communist threat west
and southwest of I hue. These regiments are now within the operating area of the
NVA 324B Infantry Division, which is primarily targeted against ARVN outposts
forming the outer defense perimeter of Hue.
4. At the same time, the forward element of the 32413 Division has expanded
its communications considerably -- an indicator of tactical preparations. In addition.
the activation of forward elements of the NVA lri-Thien Front - the tactical
control authority for northern MR I -- and the NVA 304th Infantry Division also
suggests that the North Vietnamese will increase the level of activity.
5. Other indications of impending tactical activity include recent Communist
construction activity southwest of Hue. Aerial photography indicates 25X1
that a series of new. short roads and a number of new military-related facilities
have been built within artillery range of ARVN positions south of Hue (see the
transportation map). The newly cleared or improved roads lead off a main route
nunning eastward from the A Shau Valley and appear to be access roads to new
military encampments, including at least one occupied antiaircraft site and some
clearings possibly for use by 1 ield artillery.
0. Moreover, General I ruong - the commander of GVN MR I -- expects
a Communist military high point in the region before the end of July and is now
using his own forces to disrupt ('ommunist plans. Truong is particularly concerned
about the Chua Thien area, from which he has received reports of increased
Communist resupply efforts and other preparations for a step-up in combat activity.
7. Farther south. the NVA 205th Infantry Regiment, with some 1.000
troops, apparently has moved from Quang Due Province in MR 2 to northwestern
MR 3 (see the map on Communist and South Vietnamese combat forces). Although
not yet confirmed by ('OMINT, recent rapier reports indicate the unite relocation.
The regiment was originally sent to Quang Due late last year as part of a 5,000-man
task force used to secure the Communist strategic supply route through the province
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