COMMUNIST VIOLATIONS OF THE VIETNAM AND LAOS SETTLEMENT AGREEMENTS AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080055-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 2, 2009
• Sequence Number: 55
• Publication Date: November 14, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Communist Initiated Combat Activity in South Vietnam and Laos
7. In South Vietnam, the total number of Communist initiated
cease-fire violations reported by the South Vietnamese Armed Forces since
27 January, 15 June, and for the last week (7-13 November) are shown
below:
Military
Region
Total Since
27 January
Cease-fire
Total Since
15 June
Cease-fire
Last Week
(7-13 Nov)
Major
Minor
Major
Minor
Major
Minor
Total
3,875
24,761
1,506
10,806
36(82)1
481
(583)1
MR 1
1,443
5.172
418
1,813
9
74
MR 2
616
4,130
352
2,276
12
81
MR 3
590
4,399
188
1,823
3
84
MR 4
1,226
11,060
548
4,894
12
242
8. Some of these violations may have been initiated by GVN forces
rather than Communist forces, and it is impossible in all cases to determine
the actual instigator. The tabulation above and the charts following the
Annex, however, do show fairly accurately the trend in the amount of
combat that has occurred in South Vietnam since the cease-fire. The fact
that a combat incident occurred at a particular time and place is generally
reported accurately by the South Vietnamese, even though the question
of who started it may not always be treated in objective fashion.
9. There was no significant military activity in Laos last week.
Other Developments Affecting Communist Military Capabilities
in Indochina
New Photograph}, on North Vietnam
10. Photography of North Vietnam) provided coverage
of the Vinh Yen Armor Training Center northwest of Hanoi. There is a
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 i
% rYel1 IVIeU
(anchorage) nA thnarr>
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Paksan~ Nape '~ 16
Pass Tinh
Udon
RaI l 1hanj
Warin
Chamrap
Kh orb
Hun[0
165
havane
4~n Mo
hu 0t-
Names and boundary representation
ere not necessarily authoritative
New Communist Supply Corridors
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South Vietnam
and
North Vietnam Panhandle
l - Province boundary
Military region
International Commission
of Control and Supervision
region boundary
- Road
- POL pipeline
25 50 75 Miles
T11 II
25 50 75 Kilometors
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significant difference of opinion between the Department of Defense (DOD)
and the CIA on the interpretation of this coverage. The DOD believes that
the photography is of sufficiently good quality to determine that almost
all of the approximately 130 tanks observed at this location in previous
photography of late September are now absent. The DOD further believes
that this armor may have been moved to North Vietnam's southern
panhandle for possible deployment farther south during the upcoming dry
season. Possibly related to. future deployment of armor was a 3 October
intercepted message from a North Vietnamese rear services regiment in
southern Laos which revealed that the unit was preparing a parking area
for "technical weapons," the Communists' term for AAA, armor, and
artillery.
11. The CIA does not believe this photography is of sufficient quality
to conclude that there has been any significant reduction in the number
of tanks at Vinh Yen.
12. The photography) also indicated that there are
now 230 light antiaircraft pieces stored near the rail spur located east of
Thai Nguyen, on one of the main rail lines between the Chinese border
and Hanoi. There were about 180 light antiaircraft pieces at this location
in early August 1973. This increase may represent new imports from China
or the Soviet Union.
13. In North Vietnam, three Komar-class guided missile patrol boats
were observed in aerial
photography near the Ha Tou Naval Base east of the Port of Hon Gay.
These craft and missile crates probably do not represent deliveries of milita
equipment to North Vietnam since the cease-fire.
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Infiltration of North Vietnamese Personnel
to the South Since the Cease-Fire
1. The detection of Group 5095 with 529 troops near Vinh on
10 November, and the resultant inclusion of. five undetected groups (5093,
5094, 5096, 5097, and 5098) which are believed also to have been
committed to the south, increases our estimate of infiltration starts since
1 September 1973 by some 3,000 troops. Group 5067 also was detected
in the southern portion of the Laotian Panhandle, but it was previously
accounted for in our infiltration estimate. Besides regular infiltration,
special-purpose Groups A493, A495, A496, and M496 with some
175 personnel were detected starting their journey from North Vietnam
to Communist MR Tri-Thien-Hue.
2. Since the 15 June second cease-fire, more than 34,000 North
Vietnamese have infiltrated south, some 32,000 of whom have been combat
troops and 2,000 of whom have been specialists. Since the 27 January
agreement, more than 84,000 personnel have infiltrated southward,
including more than 76,000 combat troops and about 8,000 specialists.
Some 59,000 of these personnel have started south since 27 January, while
25,000 were in the pipeline moving southward as of that date. The following
table shows the number of North Vietnamese infiltrators starting south,
by month, since 1 January 1973.
Number of Personnel Entering
the Pipeline Destined for South Vietnam,
Southern Laos, and Cambodia Since 1 January 1973
Total
Special-Purpose
January
20,000
1,600
February
10,200
2,100
March
3,250
2,250
April
1,925
1,200.
May
7,175
300
June
2,200
700
July
3,650
600
August
2,200
700
September
7,000
0
October
14,325
325
November 1-13
5,675
175
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11 I,tAJt-rltlt 1IUL,A 1 tuna In )uu n
VIETNAM AS REPORTED BY RVNAF
(28 JANUARY THROUGH 31 JULY 1913)
JAN-FEB 200
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
0
200
NEW"
CEASE-FIRE
JUL
10 04 00 0m
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11
J'A~1~1 LA' f
0,10% si A. A I I ~
l 1 S
h All
R~1~l-'hTTrl L
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CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS IN SOUTH
VIETNAM AS REPORTED BY RVNAF
(1 AUGUST 1913 TO THE PRESENT)
SEP 100
200 1 2 3 1 4 15 ' 6 1 7 . 8 . 9 . 10 11- 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
NOV 100
2001 2 T 3, 4 r 5 r 6 . 7 . 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
T ----
DEC 100
200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
JAN 100
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25X1
Secret
Secret
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